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PPP Super Tuesday Dem polls - Clinton leads FL & NC, DEAD HEAT(!) OH/ IL/ MO
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eBay Huckster
Member
Sure, here: http://www.demrace.com/
I'm not sure how accurate it is in the way it distributes delegates, but it was fun to mess with.
thanks!
as far as I can tell, if its calculations are based off the Green Papers site, then it's probably extremely accurate (though it assumes a uniform distribution of the vote rather than accounting for the popular vote in individual Congressional districts, which is the only thing that might throw it off)
Because they want Hillary to focus on attacking the Republicans. They want a show a "party unity" where Hillary ascends to the Iron Throne at the DNC and lays out a plan for vanquishing the Republicans--like they have a chance of winning the General anyway.
in fairness, at that point it's moreso "a plan for maximizing margins for downballot races" than it is actually worrying about vanquishing Trump
Sure, here: http://www.demrace.com/
I'm not sure how accurate it is in the way it distributes delegates, but it was fun to mess with.
Nice little site, after Super Tuesday II I put Bernie as winning every state going forward by 6+ points and he still falls short by 200+ delegates lol.
Manmademan
Member
in fairness, at that point it's moreso "a plan for maximizing margins for downballot races" than it is actually worrying about vanquishing Trump
also true. A potted plant could defeat Trump, the dude is toxic and Cruz isn't much better. The Democrats have this easily even if Sanders and Clinton both died tomorrow and we had to run O'malley.
Running up the score in the house and senate should be the top priority from here on out.
I think senate is a foregone conclusion, especially if the supreme court thing is still happening- but we need all the house seats we can get.
Bernie can still win this, fight until the end
Hillary will goof a lot into the next month and beyond
Hit her hard, find a way to get those speeches
Rip Hillary apart, tear her up, destroy her soul
You're starting to lose it bruh
We'll see Bernie lose NY, NJ, ML and Penn, yes lol.
He has the midwest left, maybe west coast (but not Cali, and least not any huge margin).
It's pointless talking about him getting 20+ wins in NY ect and saying "we'll see" why not just say he's gonna with 30 points in Florida tomorrow while you're at it?
I didn't even see that bit, I realise now he's just joking around.
I can see Bernie taking NY
I can see Bernie taking NY
Because it borders Vermont? And by 20 points?
I can see Bernie taking NY
Why? He has spent months demonizing the most important industry in the state. It would be like Bernie spending months saying carmakers in Detroit are all frauds who's business is to defraud people and steal their money. Do you think he would have won Michigan if he would have done that? She was also a popular Senator here. I'm basically expecting a big win for Hillary in NY
superdeluxe
Member
I can see Bernie taking NY
Why? I mean other than him needing a convincing NY win to have a shot at the nom
brianmcdoogle
Member
Was PPP the pollster that got in trouble for cooking their polls to appear more accurate than the competition?
balladofwindfishes
Member
I can see Bernie taking NY
Not a chance at all. NY is Hillary country.
She was a popular senator here.
Was PPP the pollster that got in trouble for cooking their polls to appear more accurate than the competition?
It's a pretty known tendency for many polls to tighten near the end due to poller influence (by tweaking their likely-voter or vote-mix models). I don't think PPP is a special case at all.
It's wrong, but there's a lot questionable stuff in polling, not just a single undisciplined firm.
brianmcdoogle
Member
There was an outfit in 2012 who used other polls to tweak their polls to appear more accurate and disregarded their own polling to make themselves look better; like, do five polls and only release the one that fell in line with other polling agencies. I thought it as PPP but I could be mistaken.It's a pretty known tendency for many polls to tighten near the end due to poller influence (by tweaking their likely-voter or vote-mix models). I don't think PPP is a special case at all.
It's wrong, but there's a lot questionable stuff in polling, not just a single undisciplined firm.
Macho Madness
Member
Sernie Banders
boiled goose
good with gravy
Not a chance at all. NY is Hillary country.
She was a popular senator here.
I think ny will look like mass. Hillary victory in city but Bernie winning less urban areas.
If Bernie had won mass i think he could have a shot in Ny. But he didn't..
btw, just to touch back on balladofwindfishes' earlier point, Politico has penned a piece along those lines.
Because, you know, we really didn't have any threads or posts on the topic.
Because, you know, we really didn't have any threads or posts on the topic.
I think ny will look like mass. Hillary victory in city but Bernie winning less urban areas.
If Bernie had won mass i think he could have a shot in Ny. But he didn't..
A lot of Bernie fans think that (naturally), this time it doesn't add up tho.
A case of wait and see though as ever.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Sure, here: http://www.demrace.com/
I'm not sure how accurate it is in the way it distributes delegates, but it was fun to mess with.
Mostly based on talk I've been hearing on other boards. Nothing scientific. And nothing you should be basing any assumption on.
I have heard some people saying Hawaii is kind of a stretch because it's Obama's home turf, and his connection with Hillary should help her there.
Damn, Hillary getting 60% of the vote in Florida compared to 61% of the vote is a difference of six delegates. Crazy.
Damn, Hillary getting 60% of the vote in Florida compared to 61% of the vote is a difference of six delegates. Crazy.
Just a rounding error. Every 1% will be 2.1 delegates.
Edit: Or not, forgot there was a threshold.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I went ahead and tried to find Bernie's most likely path to the nomination. I'm not saying this is what I actually think will happen. This is just the closest he has to having a chance.
http://DemRace.com/?share=H0O7JUkd
http://DemRace.com/?share=H0O7JUkd
balladofwindfishes
Member
I think ny will look like mass. Hillary victory in city but Bernie winning less urban areas.
If Bernie had won mass i think he could have a shot in Ny. But he didn't..
Here in Rochester (8 hours west of NYC), Hillary is easily the more popular of the two candidates.
Even with my peers, who are all in their mids 20s. About half or more support Hillary, at least looking at Facebook.
Anecdotal evidence and what not, but New York is basically Hillary's home state. She will win, and probably by a lot.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
PPP was great in 2012. They mostly got shit from Republicans who were mad they were putting out polls showing Democrats ahead.
They did ok in 2014... Had a few misses but so did everyone. They've been good for the primaries so far, Michigan being their only huge miss.
PPP was right in 49 states in 2012 as I recall.
Right after that, though, Nate Cohn and Nate Silver ripped into them for what they considered to be unethical poll methodology -- basically modifying their weights on the fly to make sure that the polls were in line with the polling averages. There wasn't any specific evidence but there was a lot of argument.
So, I mean, you could kind of go either way.
Thank you, my memory was too hazy.
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