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[c0de]

Tech-wise, yes. Explaining your customers why their 1-2 year old "high-end / monster"-advertized SKU is already outdated, not so much.

I think it is the name that people still associate a certain power with, still.
The consoles will be pc now forever so whatever Sony or MS offer will also be available to a pc gamer, most likely even before the consoles release and better hardware will also be available because of obvious reasons.
The console “competition“ is a snail race now from a technical point of view, in my opinion and the only difference with Sony and MS is that their cycle when to release a new system is not aligned anymore.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

You're making a lot of assumptions here.

Oculus Rift isn't even an Xbox accessory and with the way the Fallout 4 VR was pitched at the Scorpio announcement video it sounded like Bethesda weren't going to make a downgraded version for the base Xbox One.

I think(hope) even Microsoft wouldn't be crazy enough to alienate their loyal XBox contingent with exclusive games coming out for Scorpio. Features, modes, etc, sure no problem, but I feel that announcing an exclusive title for Scorpio while neglecting the XBox one fanbase would tarnish their reputation even further and make the PS4 Neo look more desirable since it presumably plays all PS4 games. IF, they proceeded with that strategy then imo it would definitely be detrimental to them in the long term. First the DRM fiasco, then the high price with less power, then focus on Kinect, TV, then XBox S, then Scorpio getting exclusive games? I still think announcing Scorpio so early was a bad idea, but we will have to see how this plays out.

 

[Peterc]

Sony did a smart move with not showing the neo.
MS trow their cards already on the table at E3.

Wonder if they keep neo a secret so Nintendo have to wait with announcing the NX.
Thats a bad thing for them.

But what else could be the reason that they are waiting to show it?

There is no reason to wait for showing a console that is just more powerful, right?

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I think it is the name that people still associate a certain power with, still.
The consoles will be pc now forever so whatever Sony or MS offer will also be available to a pc gamer, most likely even before the consoles release and better hardware will also be available because of obvious reasons.
The console “competition“ is a snail race now from a technical point of view, in my opinion and the only difference with Sony and MS is that their cycle when to release a new system is not aligned anymore.

I think the big difference is MS cares much less about hardware now.
Still i don't think they will bring out another piece of hardware 2 years after Scorpio .

 

[Bitch Pudding]

Sony did a smart move with not showing the neo.
MS trow their cards already on the table at E3.

Wonder if they keep neo a secret so Nintendo have to wait with announcing the NX.
Thats a bad thing for them.

But what else could be the reason that they are waiting to show it?

There is no reason to wait for showing a console that is just more powerful, right?

Two reasons:

- They still want to sell a shitload of PS4s without having to discount them. Just look at the massive discounts MS uses to get rid of their final vanilla XBOX One stock.

- They need flagship-games which illustrate that migrating to PS4 Neo is a clever thing to do, and maybe those aren't ready yet. Just imagine they'd show UC4 in 60fps, but without any further improvements. People would be "where the fuck is the difference!?" all over the place.

I think the big difference is MS cares much less about hardware now.
.

With regard to the Windows store sales numbers of games like QB or ROTTR I asume they still care about (console) hardware. A lot actually. This is what drives XBOX Live Gold subscriptions. But yes, with XBOX Live also arriving on iOS and Android, they don't need XBOX Hardware to push MAU numbers anymore.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

Sony did a smart move with not showing the neo.
MS trow their cards already on the table at E3.

Wonder if they keep neo a secret so Nintendo have to wait with announcing the NX.
Thats a bad thing for them.

But what else could be the reason that they are waiting to show it?

There is no reason to wait for showing a console that is just more powerful, right?

Possibly. Obviously it would of stole the thunder from the PS4 at E3, but on the contrary, we are supposedly close to release yet we haven't seen much on this upgraded console. I think it will definitely throw some PS4 owners off guard and even upset people who recently purchased a PS4 who will probably feel that they could of waited for a better machine if they just would of known ahead of time.

 

[pottuvoi]

You can't magically turn all FP32 operations into FP16 operations and expect your final image to be anything worthwhile in terms of modern rendering.

Since we are moving towards higher detailed geometry, PBR, and HDR the idea of moving all operations to FP16 just to get a higher TF value is absolute nonsense.

Agreed, it would be idiotic.
Using enough precision for task is important.

As previously stated, for operations which do not need the precision FP/INT16 are a nice option to have.

 

[mrklaw]

With regard to the Windows store sales numbers of games like QB or ROTTR I asume they still care about (console) hardware. A lot actually. This is what drives XBOX Live Gold subscriptions. But yes, with XBOX Live also arriving on iOS and Android, they don't need XBOX Hardware to push MAU numbers anymore.

My speculation is that play anywhere and Xbox games in windows store generally is more of a strategy to increase adoption of the Windows store, than any particular drive to sell more games. It's a relatively low cost reuse of assets they have to increase the perceived quality of content in their PC store

 

[eizarus]

Do we have any leaks or patents about how this thing will look? I'm expecting it to look just like the PS4 but it'd be pretty sweet to get some design tweaks.

 

[DeepEnigma]

My speculation is that play anywhere and Xbox games in windows store generally is more of a strategy to increase adoption of the Windows store, than any particular drive to sell more games. It's a relatively low cost reuse of assets they have to increase the perceived quality of content in their PC store

Of course it is. It is the Trojan Horse, due to them giving the digital versions away (making no money) when you by the Xbox versions of the game.

 

[Synth]

Of course it is. It is the Trojan Horse, due to them giving the digital versions away (making no money) when you by the Xbox versions of the game.

They're not "giving the digital version away" when you buy the Xbox version. They give you a digital version that is considered the same product when you buy the digital version. It's not like you can buy a physical Xbox game and you get it for Windows 10 too. What MS is doing with its store is rather standard amongst stores that span multiple devices (e.g. App Store or Google Play store).

I'd imagine they probably would have given people the PC version off a physical purchase if the whole 180 thing hadn't happened, as then the physical copy would have also been considered the same product.

 

[DeepEnigma]

They're not "giving the digital version away" when you buy the Xbox version. They give you a digital version that is considered the same product when you buy the digital version. It's not like you can buy a physical Xbox game and you get it for Windows 10 too. What MS is doing with its store is rather standard amongst stores that span multiple devices (e.g. App Store or Google Play store).

I'd imagine they probably would have given people the PC version off a physical purchase if the whole 180 thing hadn't happened, as then the physical copy would have also been considered the same product.

 

[Synth]

That was two sentences... Surely you could have read them both in their entirety...

 

[BradleyLove]

PSVR is built around needing to work on a 1.84TF box. Vive and Rift are built around much, much higher specs. Xbox One cannot simply use reprojection/time warp, turn down some settings, and suddenly have a functional VR solution.

I'm afraid that's not the case unless MS is making their own VR hardware designed around Xbone, and they are not.

You are mistaken.

If Sony can do it on the PS4 with 1.84TF and MS can also do it on Xbox One with 1.32TF, Nintendo can do it on GameBoy with 0TF.

*LOGIC*

I don't know what I'm reading here.

I can buy a £15 headset that enables my iPhone to provide a VR experience. So yeah, an Xbone could easily do VR. It might not be up there with OR/Vive but it'd certainly be better than what a phone could deliver. Hell, it could be with XB1 quality graphics at the appropriate resolution. If a phone can do VR, Xbone certainly can.

 

[onQ123]

Probably just standard PR talk but have this been posted?

That was the question we decided to ask David Martha of Neocore Games, who has worked on Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor – Martyr- will the launch of these new consoles give Microsoft a leg up in the graphics and resolution wars that they have been losing ever since the Xbox One and PS4 first launched in 2013?

“At the moment we’d rather refrain from any comparisons between the NEO and the Scorpion,” Martha said. “Each of them is a unique hardware with its distinctive software environment and we are happy to work with both.

He went on to explain that there would be other factors that would define how good (or not) a game went on to look on the PS4 NEO and the Xbox One Scorpio, beyond just their hardware.

“Surely there will be games performing better on NEO, other games would favor the Scorpion, but the bottlenecks are always different during each and every development. Development teams sometimes prefer working on one particular platform or they have more experience with the other, which means that this is a very complex process where the hardware is the foundation of the project, but there are numerous others factors in play as well.”

Read more at http://gamingbolt.com/warhammer-40k...ctors-will-come-into-play#jukvfWflC2z8SuHJ.99

 

[DeepEnigma]

Good ole GamingBolt. But at least it is some interesting info, and not Indy dev #278 working on a 16bit styled gaming saying, "we don't see a difference in power" between the two - article like weekly clockwork since 2013's announcements, lol.

TMZ of the gaming world lol

Indeed.

 

[onQ123]

Good ole GamingBolt. But at least it is some interesting info, and not Indy dev #278 working on a 16bit styled gaming saying, "we don't see a difference in power" between the two - article like weekly clockwork since 2013's announcements, lol.

TMZ of the gaming world lol

 

[LurkFish17]

Sony needs to at least make this thing strong enough to stay relevant along with the Nx and the Scorpio. Don't want this thing to get the wiiu treatment.

 

[onQ123]

Sony needs to at least make this thing strong enough to stay relevant along with the Nx and the Scorpio. Don't want this thing to get the wiiu treatment.

Neo is in a better position than the other 2 as far as support go so I doubt if it will get the WiiU treatment.


Neo is a PS4 , Scorpio is a Xbox One & we don't know what NX is but as of today Neo is the one that's in a good position while the others are going to have to make a good case for themselves to keep devs on board. Neo cause is that it's going to be like 50 to 60 million PS4's out there in the 1st year of Neo being on the market so devs will happily make more PS4 games.

 

[meanspartan]

I just moved out over the weekend to live with my gf. Up til now, my brothers and I just shared all our consoles at home, splitting the cost and everything.

I actually don't mind leaving them the ps4, I will buy a new one on my own. But now I'm in an irritating position of not knowing what the hell to do. If the Neo is a year or more away, I'll just buy a regular Ps4 now. But if it is coming within 6 months or something, I'd rather just wait for it.

For now I am borrowing the Xbox One from home as my brothers play that less right now anyway, but come Battlefield 1 I'm gonna wanna play with them and other friends online.

We all know Neo is coming, so I wish Sony would just cut the shit and announce a date. I realize I am in a very particular predicament right now, if I wasn't in the market for a Ps4 thanks to moving I'd be fine chilling with my existing one til Neo came out.

 

[family_guy]

I just moved out over the weekend to live with my gf. Up til now, my brothers and I just shared all our consoles at home, splitting the cost and everything.

I actually don't mind leaving them the ps4, I will buy a new one on my own. But now I'm in an irritating position of not knowing what the hell to do. If the Neo is a year or more away, I'll just buy a regular Ps4 now. But if it is coming within 6 months or something, I'd rather just wait for it.

For now I am borrowing the Xbox One from home as my brothers play that less right now anyway, but come Battlefield 1 I'm gonna wanna play with them and other friends online.

We all know Neo is coming, so I wish Sony would just cut the shit and announce a date. I realize I am in a very particular predicament right now, if I wasn't in the market for a Ps4 thanks to moving I'd be fine chilling with my existing one til Neo came out.

Well I'm fairly certain the October mandate for Neo compatibility must mean something and I doubt they would launch Neo around the same time as Xbox Scorpio, and Sony doesn't typically launch consoles outside of the fall to winter holiday season, so draw conclusions from that as you will.

 

[serversurfer]

I just moved out over the weekend to live with my gf. Up til now, my brothers and I just shared all our consoles at home, splitting the cost and everything.

I actually don't mind leaving them the ps4, I will buy a new one on my own. But now I'm in an irritating position of not knowing what the hell to do. If the Neo is a year or more away, I'll just buy a regular Ps4 now. But if it is coming within 6 months or something, I'd rather just wait for it.

For now I am borrowing the Xbox One from home as my brothers play that less right now anyway, but come Battlefield 1 I'm gonna wanna play with them and other friends online.

We all know Neo is coming, so I wish Sony would just cut the shit and announce a date. I realize I am in a very particular predicament right now, if I wasn't in the market for a Ps4 thanks to moving I'd be fine chilling with my existing one til Neo came out.

House said it would be out by the end of their fiscal year, which runs through March. A lot of people are expecting it to launch this holiday, but given the facts that they're already launching PSVR in October and holiday shoppers are typically looking to spend $20 less on their console rather than $200 more, I personally think they'll hold it until GDC, when only the intended audience is paying attention anyway.

But yeah, March at the latest, per House.

 

[DeepEnigma]

House said it would be out by the end of their fiscal year, which runs through March. A lot of people are expecting it to launch this holiday, but given the facts that they're already launching PSVR in October and holiday shoppers are typically looking to spend $20 less on their console rather than $200 more, I personally think they'll hold it until GDC, when only the intended audience is paying attention anyway.

But yeah, March at the latest, per House.

But they also mentioned they understand this is an 'enthusiast targeted' system. So the '$20 less' Holiday shopper is not the demographic to begin with. That is what the current PS4 is for, within the same ecosystem.

But who knows. I still have a gut feeling we will see something this Fall/Holiday.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

But they also mentioned they understand this is an 'enthusiast targeted' system. So the '$20 less' Holiday shopper is not the demographic to begin with. That is what the current PS4 is for, within the same ecosystem.

But who knows. I still have a gut feeling we will see something this Fall/Holiday.

Sony seem to me to be a company of habit. The test kit for Neo rolled out almost to the day the same as the PS4 test kit in 2013. I would say this could mean a November launch close to PS4's release date.

If PGW is the reveal then mid-November is just a couple of weeks after....

Of course Sony could delay as long as they like for any number of reasons as their main competition have dealt their holiday 2017 hand.

 

[serversurfer]

But they also mentioned they understand this is an 'enthusiast targeted' system. So the '$20 less' Holiday shopper is not the demographic to begin with. That is what the current PS4 is for, within the same ecosystem.

Well, yeah, that's exactly what I was arguing, sorry. There's no need for a "premium PS4" during a time when shoppers are focused almost entirely on discounts. Rather than cause a bunch of confusion amongst the normals, just hold it a few months until only the enthusiasts are listening, because they're the only ones who are even supposed to buy it. Regular people buy during the holidays and look for discounts. Aficionados will happily buy whenever you tell them it's finally permitted.

Of course Sony could delay as long as they like for any number of reasons as their main competition have dealt their holiday 2017 hand.

This too. Even if Sony had seriously toyed with the idea of pushing the launch forward from spring '17 to holiday '16, there's even less reason for them to do so now that MS have shown their cards. Personally, I think the talk of moving the Neo launch forward to this holiday was a ruse to tease some information about Scorpio out of MS, and to House's surprise, rather than simple leaks of their own, MS responded by pre-announcing a next-gen not-next-gen depends-what-we're-talking-about console, and telling Sony they had ~18 months to make hay before they could expect any kind of response from MS.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Well, yeah, that's exactly what I was arguing, sorry. There's no need for a "premium PS4" during a time when shoppers are focused almost entirely on discounts. Rather than cause a bunch of confusion amongst the normals, just hold it a few months until only the enthusiasts are listening, because they're the only ones who are even supposed to buy it. Regular people buy during the holidays and look for discounts. Aficionados will happily buy whenever you tell them it's finally permitted.

Oh I see. It all depends on the message. The general populace who wants the deal, will still see the cheaper PS4 and buy it. And the enthusiast, as you said, will buy whenever.

This too. Even if Sony had seriously toyed with the idea of pushing the launch forward from spring '17 to holiday '16, there's even less reason for them to do so now that MS have shown their cards. Personally, I think the talk of moving the Neo launch forward to this holiday was a ruse to tease some information about Scorpio out of MS, and to House's surprise, rather than simple leaks of their own, MS responded by pre-announcing a next-gen not-next-gen depends-what-we're-talking-about console, and telling Sony they had ~18 months to make hay before they could expect any kind of response from MS.

While I am not ready to subscribe to this thinking just yet, they are in a better position (market share/timetable) to 'tinker' their plans so to speak.

I think it'll release this fall so that Sony have a PlayStation with UHD blu-ray and HDR compatibility on the market against the Xbox One S.

This is my thinking as well.

 

[RoboPlato]

I think it'll release this fall so that Sony have a PlayStation with UHD blu-ray and HDR compatibility on the market against the Xbox One S.

 

[anothertech]

I don't know what I'm reading here.

I can buy a £15 headset that enables my iPhone to provide a VR experience. So yeah, an Xbone could easily do VR. It might not be up there with OR/Vive but it'd certainly be better than what a phone could deliver. Hell, it could be with XB1 quality graphics at the appropriate resolution. If a phone can do VR, Xbone certainly can.

its not that simple actually. Xbone quality graphics would render at a fps and resolution far below consumer level standards. That's why we are saying:

Xbone can do VR if they are making hardware specifically for it-Xbone can't do VR if they are not. Sony is, that's only reason ps4 is getting VR honestly.

Phil has said he thinks current gen is not powerful enough for VR. Marketing video for Scorpio mentions VR specifically. 3rd party option for VR on Scorpio via oculus or less likely Vive is expected. Xbone won't be powerful enough to run those type of 3rd party hmd's.

All signs point to no VR on xbone.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I think it'll release this fall so that Sony have a PlayStation with UHD blu-ray and HDR compatibility on the market against the Xbox One S.

I think a real PS4 Slim with UHD will release this Fall to compete with the Xbox One S. Even if the Neo is as low as $399 that still will be too much to compete with $299 Xbox S for people that are mainly interested in for the UHD capability. Can't see why Sony would give Microsoft the advantage that area considering UHD is a LOT more important to their overall business strategy.

 

[serversurfer]

I think it'll release this fall so that Sony have a PlayStation with UHD blu-ray and HDR compatibility on the market against the Xbox One S.

I think a real PS4 Slim with UHD will release this Fall to compete with the Xbox One S. Even if the Neo is as low as $399 that still will be too much to compete with $299 Xbox S for people that are mainly interested in for the UHD capability. Can't see why Sony would give Microsoft the advantage that area considering UHD is a LOT more important to their overall business strategy.

^^^ Yeah, this. I think UHD will be addressed separately from Neo, because yeah, they won't want to restrict it to the higher price point, methinks. It'd be nicer still if Rigby is right and all that's required is a firmware update.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

I'm not sure there will be a slim/UHD PS4 to be honest. Sony went out their way to state Neo was coming and that it would just be a high-end PS4 to be sold alongside the current system.

If they were to do this then it would piss even more people off. Especially those who have bought one in the last couple of months.

Outside a vague analyst? tweet there might be a slim PS4 in addition to Neo, there have been no real rumours of one.

 

[Ushay]

I'm not sure there will be a slim/UHD PS4 to be honest. Sony went out their way to state Neo was coming and that it would just be a high-end PS4 to be sold alongside the current system.

If they were to do this then it would piss even more people off. Especially those who have bought one in the last couple of months.

Outside a vague analyst? tweet there might be a slim PS4 in addition to Neo, there have been no real rumours of one.

I can't see why not if they refined the manufacture process?

 

[Gamezone]

Is the Neo suppose to be released in October? Why aren't Sony announcing it?

 

[The God]

Is the Neo suppose to be released in October? Why aren't Sony announcing it?

They're doing the Apple thing where they announce and release immediately afterwards.

 

[serversurfer]

I can't see why not if they refined the manufacture process?

They've revised the internals twice already, and we're about due for another refresh, actually, but the case is still the same. If they start selling regular PS4s with UHD drives, they'll probably refresh the case for differentiation, but if UHD support comes via firmware update as Rigby speculates, then they'll just keep the same form factor while continuing to quietly update the internals, I'd imagine.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

I can't see why not if they refined the manufacture process?

If all it was is a shrink of the APU then that would be fine. If a re-design and adding of UHD player then that would be different.

Is the Neo suppose to be released in October? Why aren't Sony announcing it?

Sony have mentioned Apple's available now model but really I just see it as Sony doing with Neo as they did with the slim PS3's. Announce 2-4 weeks before availability.

 

[onQ123]

So what big games can we look forward to showing off Neo power over the next year?

 

[brawly]

Is the Neo suppose to be released in October? Why aren't Sony announcing it?

"Out now!"

*everyone loses their shit*

I would anyway. I think they'll go the opposite of Microsoft, very short announcement-to-release window.

 

[RoboPlato]

So what big games can we look forward to showing off Neo power over the next year?

Battlefield 1 is going to be a big deal on Neo

I expect Uncharted 4 will get a patch for it and Horizon and GoW will obviously be supporting it right out of the gate.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

So what big games can we look forward to showing off Neo power over the next year?

Battlefield 1
Horizon Zero Dawn
The Last Guardian
GT Sport
Resident Evil 7
Call Of Duty Infinite Warfare
Final Fantasy XV
Rise Of The Tomb Raider
Watch Dogs 2
Mass Effect Andromeda(hopefully)

Older games like Uncharted 4 and possibly Bloodborne.

Hopefully smaller titles(in popularity) like Gravity Rush 2, Nier Automata and Persona 5 also get a bump.


Of course every PS4 exclusive we saw at E3 although we don't have release dates for most of those.

 

[Gamezone]

"Out now!"

*everyone loses their shit*

I would anyway. I think they'll go the opposite of Microsoft, very short announcement-to-release window.

I don't see how such approach would benefit them. Tell me what the Neo is capable of, and let me prepare.

 

[sense]

Well, yeah, that's exactly what I was arguing, sorry. There's no need for a "premium PS4" during a time when shoppers are focused almost entirely on discounts. Rather than cause a bunch of confusion amongst the normals, just hold it a few months until only the enthusiasts are listening, because they're the only ones who are even supposed to buy it. Regular people buy during the holidays and look for discounts. Aficionados will happily buy whenever you tell them it's finally permitted.



This too. Even if Sony had seriously toyed with the idea of pushing the launch forward from spring '17 to holiday '16, there's even less reason for them to do so now that MS have shown their cards. Personally, I think the talk of moving the Neo launch forward to this holiday was a ruse to tease some information about Scorpio out of MS, and to House's surprise, rather than simple leaks of their own, MS responded by pre-announcing a next-gen not-next-gen depends-what-we're-talking-about console, and telling Sony they had ~18 months to make hay before they could expect any kind of response from MS.

I honestly don't think they would acknowledge the existence before e3 and wait till gdc to reveal it lol especially after house was surprised by Scorpio reveal so early. The system has to release this holiday to have maximum effect alongside system seller games like battlefield, watch dogs 2, titan fall 2, cod, gt sport etc....revealing and releasing around March is like the worst idea especially if you are going to come in underpowered as well. vr is a long term play and they are probably only going to manufacture 2 or 3 million and it is not going to have a big effect on neo sales. Hardest of hardcore will buy both, some will get neo and some will get vr. Even if some decide to cancel vr order for neo, there will be other people to pick up the vr who don't care about an upgraded ps4. I still believe neo reveal and release in September or October.

I don't see how such approach would benefit them. Tell me what the Neo is capable of, and let me prepare.

Why wouldn't it benefit them? At the end of the day, it is an upgraded ps4 aimed at people willing to spend money to get the better experience.

 

[spwolf]

I don't see how such approach would benefit them. Tell me what the Neo is capable of, and let me prepare.

it is very simple - announcing early kills current sales... like XB1 sales.

 

[DeepEnigma]

So what big games can we look forward to showing off Neo power over the next year?

UC4 patch and Horizon to start. MLB The Show as well.

I suspect Battlefield 1, Call of Duty, etc., will take advantage as well with their scalable engines.

 

[icespide]

I don't see how such approach would benefit them. Tell me what the Neo is capable of, and let me prepare.

prepare for what?

 

[Darklor01]

I guess I don't follow the continued wondering what/when thought process. House said that they want a very short lead time between announcement to launch. If they want to make that near immediate, you will hear nothing until they are just about ready barring thing like a leak from a manufacturing company.

 

[bryanee]

prepare for what?

I have to imagine for some people they like to know the cost well in advance so they can have enough money in time for when it releases, myself included. Right now I'm saving up but I've got no idea what my target is.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

it is very simple - announcing early kills current sales... like XB1 sales.

This isn't true anymore. Just look at Xbox One S and Scorpio announcements at the same time.

Just a point on Neo games. All the games mentioned in the last few post will all have to have Neo mode/enhancements so every game going forward (late Sept on) to one extent or the other will have to take advantage.

 

[Darklor01]

I have to imagine for some people they like to know the cost well in advance so they can have enough money in time for when it releases, myself included. Right now I'm saving up but I've got no idea what my target is.

Right, and I totally get that. I just don't think you will hear a thing until they are just about close to launch itself.

 

[sense]

I have to imagine for some people they like to know the cost well in advance so they can have enough money in time for when it releases, myself included. Right now I'm saving up but I've got no idea what my target is.

399 to 499 would be your target. There is no way Sony is going higher than 499 for a current gen premium upgrade. I would say 399 is most likely with 449 or 499 bundles.