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[Replicant]

They'll have one more to add to that number later this year if Sony keep on being totes sick like this.

Whoa whoa whoa wait wait wait. Should I buy a Japanese PS4 from Japan when I go to Japan this year?

That'd depend when you'd go to Japan this year. If it's at the same time as launch, you can forget about it. Pre-orders have been snapped up a long time ago and everytime Amazon JP came up with a new one, it's gone in minutes just like in other countries. You can try lining up in front of Yodobashi or Bic Camera when PS4 launched in case they have some extra units. But lining up outside in Japan's winter is not my idea of fun.

Unless you go to Japan in Autumn, or 6 months post launch basically, you have much better chance at getting one by pre-ordering in your own home country.

 

[Schrade]

Thanks. Someone had to do this.

I did it way back here:

30 on the left, 65 on the right. 95 total.

Left is 5 high, 2 deep, 3 wide.

Right is 6 high, 2 deep, 5 wide (plus an additional 5)

Just in text.

 

[Sidewinder]

But I read some PR which said it was sold out. These must just be empty boxes. Must be.

No, there are real Ones in these boxes, because MS isn't a communist company like Sony, who can't even fill up shelves with their wares...people have to line up to buy a PS4 just like they had to for bread in the Soviet Union!

Buy 'merican, don't let the Communists take over!

Spoiler

 

[Jack cw]

Whoa whoa whoa wait wait wait. Should I buy a Japanese PS4 from Japan when I go to Japan this year?

I still have my launch 60GB PS3 from Japan and it works perfectly. The only things that were annoying - DVD is only region 2, so no PAL or US NTSC movies, and the Blu-Ray Code is A. Everything from the US works, but many EU discs are coded B. Ah, and the circle and X button are switched (X is close, circle is confirm). Otherwise there is no difference, as the power output is universal.

 

[Baki]

Let's not go crazy here. It will not not bomb like the Wii U. This idea that Japanese gamers live in a vacuum away from the rest of the world's interests is so overblown. While it may not reach the fever pitch of the western territories, there is enough momentum behind what may be the final strong push in console gaming. Especially with the design promoting ease of access and faster turnaround times for devs.

PS4 seemingly is trying to be the most open platform while being a dedicated platform. In my eyes Sony is competing more with Steam more than MS in their forethought and direction as a "go-to" place for gamers. Plus and the recently announced PlayStation Now, are the models taking the future into consideration.

I think you'll be quite surprised when the PS4 launches in Japan. It may do well for the first 2 weeks, but I expect sales to nose dive after that. The console is too expensive and lacks compelling software. However, the system will be fine in the long term.

 

[rdrr gnr]

I think you'll be quite surprised when the PS4 launches in Japan. It may do well for the first 2 weeks, but I expect sales to nose dive after that. The console is too expensive and lacks compelling software. However, the system will be fine in the long term.

I don't know about price, but the console lacks compelling software out here in the West and it seems to be flying off the shelves. People will buy it and continue to buy it for a while because it's a new and shiny piece of tech. The relationship between hardware and software is different early on as opposed to the end of a generation.

 

[SaucyJack]

People seems to forget Chinese New Year Festival will cause a yield problem (for real I mean) for some time. Foxconn very likely cannot sustain the usual production in January and February. If demand remain high, a even serious supply issue would happen for months.

One week's production would be lost for Chinese New Year - probably the first week in Feb - so yeah it will an impact in the region of 11-12% of notional Chinese Jan/Feb production. Of course, Sony also have a Japanese production line.

Spring festival is officially 3 days but people will tend to work the weekend before and take the whole week off.

 

[Vilam]

So I felt left out in all these antecedal reporting of stock levels

Target near me in Mountain View

Then Best Buy in Mountain View, couldn't find either console for the life of me then I looked up...

Fellow Mountain Viewer - high five!

 

[Skeff]

I don't know about price, but the console lacks compelling software out here in the West and it seems to be flying off the shelves. People will buy it and continue to buy it for a while because it's a new and shiny piece of tech. The relationship between hardware and software is different early on as opposed to the end of a generation.

I think it's important to remember that not only will the PS4 be launching with more games in Japan but also due to the higher Vita sales than anywhere else, the fantastic internet infrastructure in much of Japan and the culture of playing Handhelds, Remote Play could well be a significant selling point for the console.

No way. Pachter(hate to quote him but he is an industry analyst) said around $20-$30 million and I went a step beyond that. 9 figures for an unproven franchise is ludicrous.

Pachter was wrong as usual, also when the full exclusivity deal was done the game had won how many awards? I'm sure MS will tell us. It's CoD with Mechs from the makers of CoD, It's not really unproven and it's their marquee title from Launch all the way through to Halo.

 

[Jack cw]

I think it's important to remember that not only will the PS4 be launching with more games in Japan but also due to the higher Vita sales than anywhere else, the fantastic internet infrastructure in much of Japan and the culture of playing Handhelds, Remote Play could well be a significant selling point for the console.

I'd love to believe that PS4 could manage a PS2 level of interest in Japan, but I seriously have my doubts here. It would already be a success if it sells more than PS3, but the japanese market is so unclear to me, that it could be anything, a huge success or another era of ok sales.

 

[Baki]

I don't know about price, but the console lacks compelling software out here in the West and it seems to be flying off the shelves. People will buy it and continue to buy it for a while because it's a new and shiny piece of tech. The relationship between hardware and software is different early on as opposed to the end of a generation.

The western market is very different to the Japanese market. For example, I'd hazard to guess that the Vita is a more attractive platform than the PS4 in Japan. And again , this is due to price and lack of pent up demand for a next gen system. Until the console drops to 29,980 yen and has a major IP, don't expect sales to be anything more than 1.2 million a year.

 

[Unknown One]

Japan is a lost cause. There is a reason why they are tier 2/3 for the PS4.

 

[protonion]

So is this an all time record for console sales?

 

[Jack cw]

Japan is a lost cause. There is a reason why they are tier 2/3 for the PS4.

PS3 sold over 10 million consoles over there, despite the price and that compensated a lot for the lost US market. Japan will be a deciding factor for the gap in sales globally.

 

[Skeff]

I'd love to believe that PS4 could manage a PS2 level of interest in Japan, but I seriously have my doubts here. It would already be a success if it sells more than PS3, but the japanese market is so unclear to me, that it could be anything, a huge success or another era of ok sales.

I also don't think we'll hit PS2 sales, But I think remote play could really help the home console market to remain relevant as far as world wide goes. The interest in consoles since the PS3 launched seems to be reduced looking at sales figures, however I think the PS4 can probably achieve PS3 numbers over it's lifetime there, with XB1 and WiiU sales being below that of 360 and Wii

 

[Unknown One]

Europe was the one huge reason that PS3 tied up with the 360. They will determine the gap this generation.

 

[AllenShrz]

I think you'll be quite surprised when the PS4 launches in Japan. It may do well for the first 2 weeks, but I expect sales to nose dive after that. The console is too expensive and lacks compelling software. However, the system will be fine in the long term.

So you really think sales of the PS4 will nosedive after the second week? haha.

￥40,000 in not that expensive.

All this games will be available on release date:

Doki-Doki Universe
Don't Starve: Console Edition
Dream Club: Host Girls on Stage
DriveClub
FIFA 14
Hohokum
Killzone: Shadow Fall
Knack
Need for Speed: Rivals
Nikoli no Puzzle 4: Sudoku
Nobunaga no Yabou: Souzou
Resogun
Ryu ga Gotoku: Ishin!
Shin Sangoku Musou 7 with Moushouden
Strider Hiryu
Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
Tottemo E Mahjong Plus
ACIV: Black Flag
Battlefield 4
Call of Duty: Ghosts
Contrast
NBA 2K14

 

[UnluckyKate]

as long as they have the production capacity 8M PS4s by march is a real possibility.

Sony hold unfulfilled pre-orders in many if not all territories.

aside from pre-orders it appears there is unfulfilled demand WW above the pre-orders

Japan should eat a good number over that launch month.

so 4.2 to December 31 + 1M in Japan + 1 M / month in existing markets = 8.2

if they can ramp producttion then 10M would be a minor surprise but not outside the realms of possibility.

No chance of one million in Japan. Not even the first year; poor market situation, Mack of games, price, handled focus...

Amazon does get sold out but how many system in day one across the country ? 200k ?

 

[BigDug13]

Japan is a lost cause. There is a reason why they are tier 2/3 for the PS4.

Could it also be because there were zero Japanese games ready for November?

 

[AllenShrz]

Could it also be because there were zero Japanese games ready for November?

Stop making sense.

 

[Skeff]

Could it also be because there were zero Japanese games ready for November?

And lack of pressure from Microsoft not releasing there in the near future and when they do release, it seems unlikely they would be a threat to Sony.

I'm thinking just 300-400k for Japan Launch to be honest, with 1.5 million sold in the first year.

 

[Jack cw]

Europe was the one huge reason that PS3 tied up with the 360. They will determine the gap this generation.

Absolutely, but 10 million in Japan are still around 15% of all PS3 sales, and I dont see PS4 performing worse than this.

 

[ramparter]

Japan is a lost cause. There is a reason why they are tier 2/3 for the PS4.

Lost to whom? Xbox one never had a chance there and Wii U it's ok but nothing spectacular. PS4 will dominate that market.

 

[Mandoric]

No chance of one million in Japan. Not even the first year; poor market situation, Mack of games, price, handled focus...

Amazon does get sold out but how many system in day one across the country ? 200k ?

The price is similar to PS2's, notably lower than PS3's. There will also be a slight incentive to buy early - the sales tax is set to rise by 3% on April 1st.

200k is roughly what the PS3 did, and I'm sure it's Sony's published estimate, but it's worth remembering that PS2 shipped nearly 2 million in its first couple weeks, and Wii sold through 1m+ - there's structural room for much greater uptake if the demand can be whipped up.

 

[SaucyJack]

I didn't, but by that date I expect at least 15 million.

Does anyone remember the predictions the execs made back in early December? There was one figure what they expected from end of December and another of what they expected at the end of March?

That would be a phenomenal performance ....... and is also pretty unlikely.

I would imagine that Sony's upper end projections are probably in the region of 10-12 million for that period:

4.2m to 28/12 being, near as dammit, 4.5m for 31/12.

1Q 14 - 1 million/month WW plus 1 million Japan launch = 8.5 m to 31/3

2Q 14 - maintaining 1 million a month would be impressive taking you to a best case in the region of 11 -11.5 million. 15 million is crazy talk

 

[Zachi]

So is this an all time record for console sales?

yes it is, it's the fastest selling console at 6 weeks period

 

[Unknown One]

The Japanese market is stearing more and more heavily towards mobile and handhelds. I don't think the PS4 is going to be doing that well initially after launch phase. Even Sony noticed and prioritized EU over Japan. About time Europe is treated better really.

 

[Melchiah]

I'm glad people are sharing around the infographics we produced today, but I think it's funny people aren't linking what I think is the most important one of all - the one that shows that none of this launch stuff really matters in the end:

I know this subject has been thoroughly commented already, but the chart just reminded me of this.

The figures are the same and so is the curve. Nothing has been falsified - except the impression that it gives. A line that has climbed halfway up the chart, all because most of the chart isn't there any more. Why stop with truncating? Simply change the proportion between the ordinate and the abscissa. That is impressive isn't it.

You can do all kinds of charts, that display the matters in a better way for the stance at hand.

 

[Jack cw]

The Japanese market is stearing more and more heavily towards mobile and handhelds. I don't think the PS4 is going to be doing that well initially after launch phase. Even Sony noticed and prioritized EU over Japan. About time Europe is treated better really.

We have to wait and see if thats really true. A few weeks ago many people predicted the doom of console gaming in the west, and yet we had the most successful launch ever. I still have a little hope, that PS4 is able to get a bit confidence back into consoles in Japan. And Sony shifted their focus on the markets they had lost to Micrososft last generation and won it back with their strategy. I agree that Europe finally get the treatment from Sony that it deserves but Japan was "sacrificed" for more than just declining interest in home consoles.

 

[Canis lupus]

Europe was the one huge reason that PS3 tied up with the 360. They will determine the gap this generation.

I think US will. PS360 are so close to each other in global sales due to the lead the 360 has over the PS3 in the US, ratio is like 6.5:3.5 but since its the biggest market it comes down to a 15 million lead. Combined with UK the 360 has nearly 20 million more units sold in those places. If PS4 can become nr1 there, tie or in the worst case scenario lose slightly to the Bone, it's gonna create a huge gap. Not even talking about mainland Europe where Microsoft will lose its 360 marketshare.

The Japanese market is stearing more and more heavily towards mobile and handhelds. I don't think the PS4 is going to be doing that well initially after launch phase. Even Sony noticed and prioritized EU over Japan. About time Europe is treated better really.

Yeah I agree, I don't expect PS4 to do as well as PS3 LTD, even if it's smaller and cheaper. Japan transitioned to handheld gaming once psp and ds got huge there, and now Japan seems to slowly transition to mobiles. 3DS had already peaked in 2012, it got Pokemon and MH4 last year and it sold less.

 

[SaucyJack]

We have to wait and see if thats really true. A few weeks ago many people predicted the doom of console gaming in the west, and yet we had the most successful launch ever. I still have a little hope, that PS4 is able to get a bit confidence back into consoles in Japan. And Sony shifted their focus on the markets they had lost to Micrososft last generation and won it back with their strategy. I agree that Europe finally get the treatment from Sony that it deserves but Japan was "sacrificed" for more than just declining interest in home consoles.

Agree. Too many people extrapolating trends based on things like the WiiU tanking.

Could it just be that the WiiU tanked because:
a) Consumers recognised that it was not a "next-gen" console and was being released shortly before the real next gen was coming; and
b) Nintendo have made a real dog's breakfast of marketing the thing

And therefore that this actually tells us nothing about the potential of the PS4 and XB1? Western launch seems to suggest this may be the case.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

So you really think sales of the PS4 will nosedive after the second week? haha.

￥40,000 in not that expensive.

All this games will be available on release date:

Doki-Doki Universe
Don't Starve: Console Edition
Dream Club: Host Girls on Stage
DriveClub
FIFA 14
Hohokum
Killzone: Shadow Fall
Knack
Need for Speed: Rivals
Nikoli no Puzzle 4: Sudoku
Nobunaga no Yabou: Souzou
Resogun
Ryu ga Gotoku: Ishin!
Shin Sangoku Musou 7 with Moushouden
Strider Hiryu
Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
Tottemo E Mahjong Plus
ACIV: Black Flag
Battlefield 4
Call of Duty: Ghosts
Contrast
NBA 2K14

Hmmm very interesting.

Bit of a tough one to find but does anyone know the complete PS3 Japanese launch line-up? And generally, how does this compare?

Surely PS4 has more games in comparison as it is launching in Japan so much later than the PS3 did. Aside from the games, there are a couple of reasons why the PS4 will beat PS3's mediocre launch numbers - like Skeff said, the cross-play functionality with PS Vita can and will become a great selling point in a country that loves their handhelds. The price is a lot lower than PS3's entry price.

 

[IvorB]

serious question: is this how you go through life? Making snap judgments of peeps based on what they're wearing? How very George Zimmerman of you...

No, and this is not real life we are discussing but a character in a video game. We are talking about a fictional character the devs are asking me to buy into and spend however many hours playing as in a game. Not some Seattle grunge kid in real life who could be a really nice guy. I'm not the only person who has made this judgement of his character design.

Looks "cool" and looks like a douche mean two totally different things. The former, for me, means this character is aesthetically pleasing and has nothing to do with a snap judgment about how they might act based on how they look.

I think "looks like a douche" is a valid physical descriptor. Take, for example, Joffrey Baratheon from Game of Thrones:

Does he not look like a douche? Of course he does because he is supposed to.

 

[FourMyle]

I think US will. PS360 are so close to each other in global sales due to the lead the 360 has over the PS3 in the US, ratio is like 6.5:3.5 but since its the biggest market it comes down to a 15 million lead. Combined with UK the 360 has nearly 20 million more units sold in those places. If PS4 can become nr1 there, tie or in the worst case scenario lose slightly to the Bone, it's gonna create a huge gap. Not even talking about mainland Europe where Microsoft will lose its 360 marketshare.



Yeah I agree, I don't expect PS4 to do as well as PS3 LTD, even if it's smaller and cheaper. Japan transitioned to handheld gaming once psp and ds got huge there, and now Japan seems to slowly transition to mobiles. 3DS had already peaked in 2012, it got Pokemon and MH4 last year and it sold less.

Wow. Nintendo must not be happy about that. Mobiles are really having a huge impact even on something as successful as the 3DS.

 

[davepoobond]

Those ign charts need someone with a high school education in math to fix... Bad. Anyone ever hear of ratios and graphs other than bar graphs? Christ.

 

[BrokenEchelon]

Japan is a lost cause. There is a reason why they are tier 2/3 for the PS4.

They are tier 2/3 in Japan because XBO will sell 1,000 units there in its lifetime. The region is a lock for Sony. They could launch the PS4 there in 2018 and still outsell Microsoft. They're focusing on the region where Microsoft beat them last time: The US (and the EU to a lesser extent).

Also, I just realized the XBO is technically in last place right now. :lol

 

[Skeff]

Hmmm very interesting.

Bit of a tough one to find but does anyone know the complete PS3 Japanese launch line-up? And generally, how does this compare?

Surely PS4 has more games in comparison as it is launching in Japan so much later than the PS3 did. Aside from the games, there are a couple of reasons why the PS4 will beat PS3's mediocre launch numbers - like Skeff said, the cross-play functionality with PS Vita can and will become a great selling point in a country that loves their handhelds. The price is a lot lower than PS3's entry price.

PS3 Jap launch games were terrible by comparison:

Blast Factor
Kidou Senshi Gundam: Target In Sight
Ridge Racer 7
Miyasato Miyoshi Kyoudai Naizou: Sega Golf Club
Resistance: Jinrui Botsuraku no Hi
Genji: Kamui Souran

According to wikipedia at least.

 

[Prince Vultan]

You'd be hard pressed to find someone who loves his PS4 more than I do, but really, I can't foresee any scenario where the console does good business in Japan. That market is pretty much dead for home consoles at this point, and I'm not sure a new console with the promise of FFXV in 2-3 years time is going to be nearly enough to change that.

The Japanese launch line up looks pretty sweet though. When's EDF PS4 coming out?

 

[goonergaz]

I dunno, the WiiU has the issue of not being much of a technical leap so I can see why that bombed.

The PS3 was far too big for the Japanese to enjoy (IMHO) - they seem to like compact items.

So with PS4 you have a technically powerful machine in a very compact stylish case, I think it has potential to do well.

 

[IvorB]

You'd be hard pressed to find someone who loves his PS4 more than I do, but really, I can't foresee any scenario where the console does good business in Japan. That market is pretty much dead for home consoles at this point, and I'm not sure a new console with the promise of FFXV in 2-3 years time is going to be nearly enough to change that.

The Japanese launch line up looks pretty sweet though. When's EDF PS4 coming out?

Why do you say the market for home consoles is dead in Japan? They bought a lot of PS3s.

 

[RedAssedApe]

So you really think sales of the PS4 will nosedive after the second week? haha.

￥40,000 in not that expensive.

All this games will be available on release date:

Doki-Doki Universe
Don't Starve: Console Edition
Dream Club: Host Girls on Stage
DriveClub
FIFA 14
Hohokum
Killzone: Shadow Fall
Knack
Need for Speed: Rivals
Nikoli no Puzzle 4: Sudoku
Nobunaga no Yabou: Souzou
Resogun
Ryu ga Gotoku: Ishin!
Shin Sangoku Musou 7 with Moushouden
Strider Hiryu
Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
Tottemo E Mahjong Plus
ACIV: Black Flag
Battlefield 4
Call of Duty: Ghosts
Contrast
NBA 2K14

What's the most popular game on this list? Dynasty Warriors? Yakuza? COD? Dream Club? I expect PS4 to sell as much as whatever the top selling game is.

 

[Prince Vultan]

Why do you say the market for home consoles is dead in Japan? They bought a lot of PS3s.

For a time, yeah, but PS3 hardware doesn't seem to have been doing big numbers for ages over there. This together with the Wii U being stillborn and home console software doing a fraction the business of handheld software (It's shocking how close Vita versions of PS3/PSV games come to matching sales of the PS3 versions given the huge userbase difference) and the fact that practically all the biggest franchises in Japan are handheld based now just leads to that conclusion.

I can't imagine a scenario where a home console does massive numbers in Japan again unless something drastic happens is all. Would love to be wrong though, obviously.

 

[Unknown One]

We have to wait and see if thats really true. A few weeks ago many people predicted the doom of console gaming in the west, and yet we had the most successful launch ever. I still have a little hope, that PS4 is able to get a bit confidence back into consoles in Japan. And Sony shifted their focus on the markets they had lost to Micrososft last generation and won it back with their strategy. I agree that Europe finally get the treatment from Sony that it deserves but Japan was "sacrificed" for more than just declining interest in home consoles.

I get your point. I would love to be wrong since I haven't played much JRPGs last gen. The people who predicted doom and gloom for console gaming are hilarious, especially the crazy Nintendo ones (not regular Nintendo fans).

 

[Skeff]

What's the most popular game on this list? Dynasty Warriors? Yakuza? COD? Dream Club? I expect PS4 to sell as much as whatever the top selling game is.

Your right PS4 sales will be around the same as Knack sales.

Spoiler

It's bundled

 

[Jack_AG]

yes it is, it's the fastest selling console at 6 weeks period

Yeah but it's only from release day to the end of that current month that matters.

 

[Definity]

I love gaf.

 

[Fafalada]

What's the most popular game on this list? Dynasty Warriors? Yakuza? COD? Dream Club? I expect PS4 to sell as much as whatever the top selling game is.

Obviously market has changed - but for you guys arguing launch needs a killer-system seller - have you already forgotten how awful&barren PS2 launch was in Japan? And hw-sales remained supply-limited there for basically the whole year (and beyond, because US launch made the supply situation worse).

 

[Manmademan]

Obviously market has changed - but for you guys arguing launch needs a killer-system seller - have you already forgotten how awful&barren PS2 launch was in Japan? And hw-sales remained supply-limited there for basically the whole year (and beyond, because US launch made the supply situation worse).

Not a good example, since DVD functionality was driving ps2 adoption to crazy degrees at that time.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

This is like one of those Professor Layton puzzles

 

[Mandoric]

What's the most popular game on this list? Dynasty Warriors? Yakuza? COD? Dream Club? I expect PS4 to sell as much as whatever the top selling game is.

So half a million launch week? Wouldn't be shabby, and would be well on track to 1m in a month.