I dunno, demand seems pretty strong in Japan.
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PS4 sold (to consumers) 4.2 million units as of Dec. 28 2013
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I dunno, demand seems pretty strong in Japan.
BoboBrazil
Member
I think EA just underestimated the popularity of the PS4. If you think about the PS4 install base they are probably losing out on 1-2 million in sales of the game not being on PS4 or PS3. That's potentially 60-120 million dollars. Even after development costs they should have been able to take home atleast half of that. I really have to wonder how much MS paid for this.
Respawn doesn't have the resources... yet the Xbox 360 version is being outsourced not to mention this is EA who are backing them there's no way EA couldn't make it happen somehow with their resources.
While Japan may be moving away from home consoles, I definitely don't think the PS4 will completely bomb there. The brand is popular and the system will have content that the Wii U won't be getting (no need to bring up Xbox One since the Xbox brand is pretty much nonexistent there).
as long as they have the production capacity 8M PS4s by march is a real possibility.
Sony hold unfulfilled pre-orders in many if not all territories.
aside from pre-orders it appears there is unfulfilled demand WW above the pre-orders
Japan should eat a good number over that launch month.
so 4.2 to December 31 + 1M in Japan + 1 M / month in existing markets = 8.2
if they can ramp producttion then 10M would be a minor surprise but not outside the realms of possibility.
Sony hold unfulfilled pre-orders in many if not all territories.
aside from pre-orders it appears there is unfulfilled demand WW above the pre-orders
Japan should eat a good number over that launch month.
so 4.2 to December 31 + 1M in Japan + 1 M / month in existing markets = 8.2
if they can ramp producttion then 10M would be a minor surprise but not outside the realms of possibility.
Truespeed
Member
Japan bought 10 million PS3's so I don't quite get your logic on why the PS4 will not do as well. The software will come and the system will sell well and easily pass the PS3. The only system that will bomb in Japan is, of course, the Xbox One. I'm predicting it'll do worse than the 360. Microsoft has finally nailed the research on what Japanese gamers hate about consoles and developed it.
even if it starts off strong
not sustainable unless the software lineup improves
by a LOT
and soon
BoboBrazil
Member
I'd say over it's lifetime it will sell more than the PS3 there just do to the lower entry starting point and standard components making it easier to get down to a lower price faster. Ease of development will also encourage Japanese developers to make games for the system. I think stuff like the social aspect of it will be big to Japanese gamers along with the streaming.
Brad Grenz
Member
Didn't the preorders sell out in minutes in Japan?
Pretty much.
ZehDon
Member
I think its more about hedging bets. A new IP is very risky - especially when you're aiming at Call of Duty. Titanfall could be incredibly well made, but simply not resonate with the general public - especially on Sony's machine, where shooters are less dominate than they are on Xbox. EA likely weighed up the risk, and decided Microsoft's money in the bank now was better than a chance at our money in the bank later. And if its successful, everyone else will get the sequels anyway. Exactly the same thing happened with Mass Effect.
Of course, EA is also getting a truck load of the biggest and best marketing free of charge. Microsoft is pushing Titanfall hard. Free marketing and a boat load of cash go a long, long way to offsetting the cost of creating the game, and the large amount of risk involved with putting a multiplayer-only title on consoles. Even if Titanfall underperforms, EA is completely covered. If it succeeds, Microsoft won't have enough money to keep the exclusivity. EA couldn't ask for a better deal.
meanspartan
Member
Oh no I'm not saying either will get to ten million or anything, just illustrating that even if the Ps4 is doing better, in the case of Titanfall it probably won't matter much to EA in regards to their deal with Microsoft because the install bases are so small.
SwiftDeath
Member
So I felt left out in all these antecedal reporting of stock levels
I was out earlier today getting a birthday present for someone so I could take these
Target near me in Mountain View
No PS4's
2 XB1's
Then Best Buy in Mountain View, couldn't find either console for the life of me then I looked up...
No idea why there were none on the floor
Oh and on my way out I saw a single solitary PS4. It was in the process of being sold and I overheard that the only reason they had it was because it was a return. I asked the BB worker who gave the buyer the PS4 if they had anymore. Nope and no idea on when they'll get more in
Also why are Fitbit Forces so damn hard to get? Stop stealing my presents for other people America
I was out earlier today getting a birthday present for someone so I could take these
Target near me in Mountain View
No PS4's
2 XB1's
Then Best Buy in Mountain View, couldn't find either console for the life of me then I looked up...
No idea why there were none on the floor
Oh and on my way out I saw a single solitary PS4. It was in the process of being sold and I overheard that the only reason they had it was because it was a return. I asked the BB worker who gave the buyer the PS4 if they had anymore. Nope and no idea on when they'll get more in
Also why are Fitbit Forces so damn hard to get? Stop stealing my presents for other people America
Version 3.0
Member
Even if Microsoft is making up the number, it's not a "lie". It's an estimate. I'm not being funny. Given that these figures - from Sony and Microsoft both - are out before their official sales trackers' (NPD, Chart-Track) data has been released, these are most likely extrapolations from whatever preliminary data they have. Could be sell-through percentages from a couple of key retail partners applied against regional shipment figures. Could be spotty early data from the trackers.
In any case, it's an estimate. And the official tracking data is also estimated, at least partially. And the official figures do sometimes get revised weeks or months later.
If it turns out Microsoft only sold 2.5 million Xbox Ones in that timeframe, there will be no "ramifications". None. Early estimates can be wrong. The only figures Microsoft are legally required to get right are their shipment numbers.
Anyway, there's no reason to doubt Microsoft's announcement. The data flow back from retailers is better than it's ever been, so I'm confident it's a close estimate. And the pictures of piles of Xboxes, though amusing, are meaningless. It just looks like:
Sony shipped:
slightly more than 4.2 million PS4s
Retailers sold:
4.2 million PS4s
Microsoft shipped:
significantly more than 3 million XB1s
Retailers sold:
3 million XB1s, with plenty of stock left in stores
The 30M might be crazy but 8M by end of March is minimum. They must already produce a million per month. And who can doubt they'll sell a million a month in Q1?
what about China? they just lifted game console ban, is Sony going to enter the Chinese market?
Maybe pass 5 million? That is 3 months to sell 800K worldwide with the Japan launch in February. You don't need to play passive on this topic. It is tough to figure out when supply will catch up with demand considering we have never seen so many systems sold in such a short time span. However, we all know PS4 will easily pass 5 million before the end of March. The system still isn't easily available anywhere. The only thing stopping this from happening is a complete lack of supply.
I think 10 million is crazy too, but somewhere around 6 to 7 million isn't. Jan, Feb, March are all strong selling months. Not holiday crazy, but top systems typically sell around 300K to 400K per month in each of these months in the USA alone.
I'm more interested in their next year fiscal forecast. Wonder if Sony will low ball the number like they did with their initial 5 million forecast for fiscal year 2013.
Nightengale
Member
I expect Japan sales of PS4 at launch to be slow ( high sales, but drops to low numbers subsequently ), but at the same time, I expect it to have long legs and will not bomb.
In terms of games that will most likely migrate entirely to next-gen earliest ( western devs ), even though they don't do great numbers, top-tier western games do sell reasonably well in Japan. Nowhere near the best-sellers, but there appears to be a healthy market of gamers in Japan who likes their CoD, Battlefield, GTA, GoW, TLoU, etc.
Cumulatively, I would expect that audience alone to be at least 1mil+ in Japan.
Locally, we're seeing that the most popular console franchises ( with global appeal ) are still sticking to their console roots. MGS will be on consoles for the foreseeable future. So will FF, KH, Biohazard. These titles, probably 2mil+ audience.
Even games with a very local flavour like Yakuza are still sticking to consoles for the time being. From what we know and hear, games like Tales mothership is staying on consoles, etc. Who knows if things change for other franchises in the future, but there's still a good amount of franchises that sell well that are staying on consoles. Said games are also small enough that they don't need 1million sales to be successful.
And then there's all the niche franchises. EDF, IDOLM@STER, Dream Club. Many of these games have no issues coming to PS4, and be on all Sony platforms due to their limited fanbase, low sales expectations, and the fact that multiplatform approach is quite successful in Japan, with Vita + PS3 sales both being healthy on their own right despite games appearing on both platforms.
My gut feel for Japan is somewhere along these lines:
Does well@launch, but won't be near PS2 launch sales.
Slow sales for 2014.
Sales pick up in 2015 as more western games stop being cross-gen, FFXV/MGSV has clearer dates, and GT7 is announced.
In terms of games that will most likely migrate entirely to next-gen earliest ( western devs ), even though they don't do great numbers, top-tier western games do sell reasonably well in Japan. Nowhere near the best-sellers, but there appears to be a healthy market of gamers in Japan who likes their CoD, Battlefield, GTA, GoW, TLoU, etc.
Cumulatively, I would expect that audience alone to be at least 1mil+ in Japan.
Locally, we're seeing that the most popular console franchises ( with global appeal ) are still sticking to their console roots. MGS will be on consoles for the foreseeable future. So will FF, KH, Biohazard. These titles, probably 2mil+ audience.
Even games with a very local flavour like Yakuza are still sticking to consoles for the time being. From what we know and hear, games like Tales mothership is staying on consoles, etc. Who knows if things change for other franchises in the future, but there's still a good amount of franchises that sell well that are staying on consoles. Said games are also small enough that they don't need 1million sales to be successful.
And then there's all the niche franchises. EDF, IDOLM@STER, Dream Club. Many of these games have no issues coming to PS4, and be on all Sony platforms due to their limited fanbase, low sales expectations, and the fact that multiplatform approach is quite successful in Japan, with Vita + PS3 sales both being healthy on their own right despite games appearing on both platforms.
My gut feel for Japan is somewhere along these lines:
Does well@launch, but won't be near PS2 launch sales.
Slow sales for 2014.
Sales pick up in 2015 as more western games stop being cross-gen, FFXV/MGSV has clearer dates, and GT7 is announced.
Cow Goes Moo
Member
I think it will be okay, it probably just replace the ps3 over time
I'm thinking 300k for launch
holy crap, from all these pics, if thats not stuffing the channel, i don't know what is
Truespeed
Member
If only a lawsuit was launched against them so that we could see the contract. EA is a very shrewd company so it would be interesting to see how they structured it. I don't think they just took a lump sum of money. The contract is likely littered with performance and penalty clauses to put them in the best possible position. But, there's no doubt, in my mind, that they miscalculated. Zampella should have never let this happen or even given them the power to do so without his blessing. I realize he's denied any involvement, but I have my doubts. They're a small company that's strapped for time so developing a PS3 and PS4 version would have spread them too thin.
This was basically my thoughts on his charts.
I don't think it'll be Wii U bad, but I don't think Japan is very interested in consoles anymore. PS4 will struggle.
SwiftDeath
Member
My count is at least 73 XB1's at just that one Best Buy, could be a few more but hard to tell the top layer
fatgamecat
Member
Seems PS4 will still be supply constrained by end of March. If they airlifted their Jan supply for Dec, that's not much for this month. It depends how many they can manufacture and whether they airlift or ship by sea. They may also be stockpiling units for Japan and other regions.
I'm going to guess 5.5-6.5m by end of March, close to their initial estimates which were likely based on how many they could manufacture in the first place.
I'm going to guess 5.5-6.5m by end of March, close to their initial estimates which were likely based on how many they could manufacture in the first place.
CadetMahoney
Member
this.
Wouldn't surprised me as MS even included Kinect, so we know who their target audience is.
Just going to add to the anecdotal evidence going around.
Went to three department stores in the past two days. All had multiple X-Box Ones, none had any PS4's in stock.
Yes it's one town, but still. Get enough anecdotal evidence together and it starts becoming scientific evidence. Also, no Microsoft "producing more," wouldn't explain what we're seeing. If demand was equal but Microsoft was producing more, then Microsoft would be ahead in terms of units sold, despite Sony's slight head start.
No, it's fairly clear that Microsoft both produced less, and that demand for the X1 peaked before demand for the PS4.
Went to three department stores in the past two days. All had multiple X-Box Ones, none had any PS4's in stock.
Yes it's one town, but still. Get enough anecdotal evidence together and it starts becoming scientific evidence. Also, no Microsoft "producing more," wouldn't explain what we're seeing. If demand was equal but Microsoft was producing more, then Microsoft would be ahead in terms of units sold, despite Sony's slight head start.
No, it's fairly clear that Microsoft both produced less, and that demand for the X1 peaked before demand for the PS4.
onken
Member
This.
Seems the same for online shops. PS4 completely sold out and X1 available almost everywhere.
Maybe Sony underestimated the demand for the PS4.
It's not that expensive really. They'll also have Dynasty Warriors alongside Yakuza and free Knack at launch; possibly Drive Club at launch window as well as the rest of the PS4 lineup that is currently out there.
Pair that up with Vita and VitaTV which are already out there, it makes for a pretty great interconnected PlayStation ecosystem.
FairXchange
Member
That's fine, if it pushes like.. 1.2 to 1.5 million in its first year that would be considered a nice success. Then they can work on the content for that market and hopefully keep the console market alive despite its clear retraction in the coming years.
People seems to forget Chinese New Year Festival will cause a yield problem (for real I mean) for some time. Foxconn very likely cannot sustain the usual production in January and February. If demand remain high, a even serious supply issue would happen for months.
But I read some PR which said it was sold out. These must just be empty boxes. Must be.
Both are expected to launch as early as this summer, Q1 is out of possiblilty. Early adopters most likely already bought the asian version though so do not expect huge numbers for both.
I'm sure that quote was of great comfort to MS and Sony when the Wii was kicking their asses.
It is obviously early days, but there is a risk for MS that if PS4 becomes establishes as 'the one to have', building up critical mass both in marketshare and mindshare, then even a price cut won't necessarily help - they need a $100 price cut just to reach price parity, and people may still choose PS4 as the more established machine.
I think it'll always do well in US/UK, but even there it may be outsold by PS4 over the generation, but the gap will be narrower
All that can change pretty quickly if they bring out some amazing games, or show that kinect can deliver something disruptive. But then that goes both ways - Sony bringing a playstation Now, the live TV stuff, maybe VR.
Gonna be a fun few years.
I think it'll always do well in US/UK, but even there it may be outsold by PS4 over the generation, but the gap will be narrower
All that can change pretty quickly if they bring out some amazing games, or show that kinect can deliver something disruptive. But then that goes both ways - Sony bringing a playstation Now, the live TV stuff, maybe VR.
Gonna be a fun few years.
No way. Pachter(hate to quote him but he is an industry analyst) said around $20-$30 million and I went a step beyond that. 9 figures for an unproven franchise is ludicrous.
TheUnsunghero26
Member
Except EA didn't have anything to do with the development with the first Mass Effect. That was all Microsoft published/funded.
Titanfall is all EA/Respawn. It was EA's decision to take the deal (and the second deal to keep it exclusive rather than a timed, I assume). Microsoft must be paying a lot of money for it.
Speedy Blue Dude
Banned
Sony started production first, so they had more time to pump out consoles before Microsoft did.
Is it really surprising Sony has the higher demand right now? Their system is $100 less, that alone insured Sony victory at launch. It's just a matter of if Microsoft can drive users to be willing to spend $100 for their system by offering a better line up. Microsoft is doing a good job at that so far, considering the gap is only 1 million so far. Launching a week later, in 40+ less countries, and being $100 more expensive, 3 million sales is impressive.
Also, do people really think EA is regretting their decision? I'm sure EA will be crying from losing 1,000,000 sales for TitanFall, which will already sell millions anyways, and Microsoft probably paid them more than they would have earned by being on PS4. Being honest as well, TitanFall only has the hype it has now because of Microsoft's advertising. Game would have probably sold worse without Microsoft positioning it as the "Reason to buy an Xbox One"..
I think Titanfall 2 is coming out faster than many of us think. And believe it or not, I think that Destiny will be the new IP that boosts sales.
SwiftDeath
Member
First off 3 million sales is indeed damn impressive
However the launch date differences mean little as its a week and systems sold out of their entire stock over that period and Sony launched a week later in all but 2 territories.
Again more launch territories mean little if both consoles are supposed to sell out through their launch windows
Lagspike_exe
Member
Really? Most of these countries are low yielding ones and even worse, Sony sent very small shipments there to keep the supply steady for US, UK and other major markets. Also, Sony is still to launch Japan, which will give it a massive sales boost.
lmao....
Just wait and see!
IMO it's going to do gangbusters.. relatively. If anything brings back the Japanese console audience, it will be PS4. The demand seems to be there, and they're excited like the rest of us for a new generation.
I'm going to keep this post as a memento to reference later.
Sony may have started production earlier, but they still produced less and still hit demand sooner, so your point is accurate but largely irrelevant.
While being a hundred dollars cheaper certainly helps some, the hundred dollar difference in price likely isn't a deal breaker for the bulk of early adopters out there. Basically, yes being cheaper helped, but it didn't help by 1.2 million units or more.
Also, the difference in price was probably offset somewhat by Microsofts advertising campaign. Sony's campaign was better, at least in my opinion, but the X-box brand was being promoted by everyone and everything for awhile there.
I think a bigger difference here, is the overall vision each company has for their product, and how those visions are sold. Sony seemed to have a more clear conception what it wanted to be, and beat that particular drum loud and clearly right up until launch.
Microsoft on the other hand, couldn't seem to decide how they wanted to market their device. They didn't want to run it as a pure gaming device, didn't want to promote it as a purely media center type device, nor did they really try to push it as a social media device. Instead they dithered, diluted their message by trying to sell it as all three at once, and tried to sell it on its brand name and marketing power.
Basically, "Hey, guns, cars, zombies! You can have it all and watch TV too! just get down to local McDonalds and order a mountain dew, for your chance to win our new X Box One television media device!"
That, could have worked, had they focused in more. Instead we had an undisciplined advertising campaign that did nothing to offset the early bad press.
This is why Sony is doing better. It's not because Sony had an early start, or released in most countries. Sony sold itself better than Microsoft did, end of story.
Let's not go crazy here. It will not not bomb like the Wii U. This idea that Japanese gamers live in a vacuum away from the rest of the world's interests is so overblown. While it may not reach the fever pitch of the western territories, there is enough momentum behind what may be the final strong push in console gaming. Especially with the design promoting ease of access and faster turnaround times for devs.
PS4 seemingly is trying to be the most open platform while being a dedicated platform. In my eyes Sony is competing more with Steam more than MS in their forethought and direction as a "go-to" place for gamers. Plus and the recently announced PlayStation Now, are the models taking the future into consideration.
Fattony12000
Member
They'll have one more to add to that number later this year if Sony keep on being totes sick like this.
Whoa whoa whoa wait wait wait. Should I buy a Japanese PS4 from Japan when I go to Japan this year?
Whoa whoa whoa wait wait wait. Should I buy a Japanese PS4 from Japan when I go to Japan this year?
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