The Xbox One would be breaking records for a console at launch overall if it wasn't for the PS4 so I would say that it matters. Both consoles have done better than many expected them to.
Xbox 360 did have production issues but the Xbox One selling more than it isn't just due to that -- especially considering that the Xbox One is the most expensive console of its gen right now. The Xbox brand is more popular now than it was back in 2005/2006 and I would even go as far as to say that the launch line up was better in comparison to the 360.
The Wii U also sold more than the Wii at launch. Now certainly, it's not the same scenario but it does illustrates how a strong launch doesn't necessarily mean success.
When will that happen though? The Xbox One is at about 2.25 million in overall NA sales right now in less than 5 months. The Xbox 360 didn't reach that in NA until it's very first July (in 2006). I can't see things becoming worse as we move to the Fall + Xmas season when many big name games will be coming out. If anything sales should improve when it comes to NA.
The X1's big game, Titanfall, is out, and it was accompanied with some pretty generous price cuts. I believe March will it's peak and it'll decline in the next few months. Kinect Sports will not be a system seller, the crowd that made the Wii And Kinect big has moved on (see Wii Sporst on the Wii U). Their next big system seller would be Halo 5, which may not come till next year. Sony's got Watchdogs and Destiny marketing locked down, those are two of the biggest games this year and they'll be associated with Playstation. I just don't see how MS will turn things around until a good $100 price cut.
And I see that you're only mentioning NA. Is that intentional? Because WW, the X1 will definitively fall behind the 360 (it'll happen in NA as well, it'll just take longer). This is exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about, you shouldn't focus solely on NA, there's a
whole world out there outside the US.
Really can't say this yet. They have new IPs planned for this gen and if anything, them not being able to rely on third party exclusives will give them more of a want to make exclusive games for the console to be more appealing. The 2014-2015 exclusive lineup seems solid already and that's just based on the games we already know about. Not the games that still haven't been revealed yet.
Definitely, if MS can finally get off their behinds and start working on some new IPs, this could be good (similar to what Sony did with PS3). The issue is, I just don't see how they'll do it. Sony's always had a great stable of studios, so has Nintendo. MS' first party is... lacking, to say the least. They're good at what they do, yes, but that's all they do (T10 = Forza, 343 = Halo, Lionhead = Fable, Rare = Kinect, Black Tusk = Gears). I'll believe them when I see it, but short of buying some second party studio (and the only relevant studio that comes to mind that could be bought is Remedy) or creating new studios (which will takes years before putting out a game), there's nothing else they can do right now.
Not necessarily. There could still be more XBLG subscribers this gen in comparison to last especially since it's even more of a necessity to have it this gen. Over 50% of PS4 owners have PS+ and I'm expecting the percentage to be even higher for Xbox One users with XBLG due to how much the Xbox One relies on it (the system is pretty much gimped in features without XBLG).
The Xbox One could have say, 50 million overall console sales by the end of the gen while the Xbox 360 had more than 80 million its respective gen. If less than half of Xbox 360 users had XBLG during its gen while the majority of Xbox One owners have XBLG during its gen, then that would mean more people having XBLG on the Xbox One in comparison to the Xbox 360 even if the Xbox One sells less than its predecessor overall.
I mean, look at the PS2 and PS3. PS3 still had far more people playing online than the PS2 even though many PS2 gamers moved to the 360 & the PS3 sold less than the PS2 simply because online gaming became more popular and there were more benefits in connecting the PS3 online vs. connecting the PS2 online (especially later on in the previous gen when PSN got much better).
XBLG was just as restrictive on the 360. It's no more required on the X1 than it was on the 360 (unless I'm missing something here?). I see what you're trying to say, but it makes no sense. I don't see how XBLG numbers don't go down as the Xbox looses ground to Playstation (especially in NA). If there were 40 million subscribers last gen, MS would have to sell more than 40 million X1s for it to remain the same (which is a tall order). I doubt the XBLG attach rate will be much bigger than it was last gen (which was what, 50% ish?
The comparison between PS3 and PS2 doens't work because the PS2 wasn't an online focused console.Even though it sold a ton, only a fraction of the userbase played online because it was such a secondary feature. Last gen was when online really took off so obviously, PS3 had more people playing online even though it sold less since online was pretty much a integral part of the console.
Now with that all said, who knows what'll happen. MS could announce a $400 price cut for all we know and that'd change things dramatically. But realistically, It's going to be rough road ahead for the X1.
All of the examples Tsundere posted are actually positive 3rd party exclusives [i.e. not money hats] that MS funded and likely wouldn't exist without MS's intervention
Titanfall is a case of a moneyhat
Exactly, games like Bayonetta 2 and DR3, are example of great examples of good investments. Sure, it sucks that they won't be on other platforms, but they'd like not exist without the funds provided. It's moneyhats like TF where MS pretty much pays for the PS version to be cancelled that gives them a bad name. Now with that said, I still feel relying too much on third party is a weakness. What's stopping Capcom from making DR4 on PS4/X1 (Just like DR2). The X1 needs some full exclusives that will only be found on Xbox.
It's only a problem if MS can't sustain them working on exclusives for a long period of time.
If they can, then it doesn't matter a whole lot.
Insomniac was practically first-party throughout the PS3 era, since Sony ensured their pipeline was full of Sony money. The question for MS is how many are in a similar situation to Insomniac is during the PS3 era.
Wasn't Insomniac's main issue with Sony the fact they they wanted to own their own IPs and couldn't do so? With MS, they'll have ownership of the SO IP which might conceivably mean we'll see sequels on other platforms. Regardless, hopefully it means Sony will let another dev take a shot at the Ratchet IP, I'd love to see that.
