Support NeoGAF

[Charles Foster Kane]

Unless the rest of the world is following your lead all you're doing is scheduling the demise for your culture as you will become a weak target for the other nation states that want your resources. If you want to do something about the carrying capacity of the planet, low birth rates really isn't the answer unless you're advocating a zero or negative population growth.

So you do concede the over population is a big problem, considering you say the countries that overpopulate will want to take the resources off the ones that actually managed theirs. This isn`t just a nation problem, It`s a world one. There will be a time when there isn`t a choice but to do something. I just hope it`s not too late.

 

[HoodWinked]

japan is just decades more advanced than the rest of the world.

population control is a NECESSITY for humans to continue to exist on earth. india needs to adopt this philosophy.

 

[jaxword]

japan is just decades more advanced than the rest of the world.

population control is a NECESSITY for humans to continue to exist on earth. india needs to adopt this philosophy.

Yeah, but birth control is against God's will.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

You keep positing it between excessive growth and decreasing population. There can be something in-between. Take a look at Detroit to see what happens with decreasing population.

yes, and that would be great. Sorry, I don`t mean to sound overly negative. It`s just that what everywhere I`ve looked about the topic an in-between seems a tad difficult thing.

 

[numble]

yes, and that would be great.

So why are you advocating Japan depopulate?

 

[milanbaros]

japan is just decades more advanced than the rest of the world.

population control is a NECESSITY for humans to continue to exist on earth. india needs to adopt this philosophy.

Control or education?

On average, an illiterate woman in India is bearing 1.2 children more than a literate woman (3.4 against 2.2). The TFR among women who have studied till at least class X was as low as 1.9. This further dips to 1.6 among women who have studied till class XII.

 

[CrocMother]

japan is just decades more advanced than the rest of the world.

population control is a NECESSITY for humans to continue to exist on earth. india needs to adopt this philosophy.

The problem is they aren't in control.

Say you have 5 people who are too old to take care of themselves, and only 4 people to take care of them.

Not only that, but you need at least 3 of those 4 people to work other jobs to make enough money so that their taxes can pay for social security that pays for taking care of the elderly.

What do you do?

Spoiler

robots

 

[You Are Viewtiful]

what if the population keeps growing like in the rest of world or like in India? Sure, the economics need the population growth to keep growing as a business, they need more people to keep buying more things; but what happens when we hit saturation point? what then?

There`s only so much the world can take.

I am willing to bet that will be much worse case scenario than what any decrease in population can ever create.

Birth rates are declining in India too and they will also probably eventually have 0% growth rate in the future.

I'm not an expert on this stuff but I think the best way to tackle this issue is either to continue large birth rates but cut down on the amount of resources we use by developing more efficient technology (we're the species that prevented a worldwide famine through the Green Revolution afterall). OR we can continue with the low birth rates and use technology to fill labour shortages and take care of the elderly and young (Japan has a lot invested in robots). Or we can do as Ether_Snake says and try to find ways to delay old age and keep the adult population in tact. No matter how we look at though, how we use our technology is going to be very important in the future.

 

[Dead Man]

Economists may hate shrinking populations, but the shit is necessary.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

So why are you advocating Japan depopulate?

lol, I`m not particularly advocating for japan to depopulate; I guess I got carried away and addressed the issue in general.

 

[HoodWinked]

Yeah, but birth control is against God's will.

i dont think hinduism forbids contraception. i think they just have sex because so much of their population lives in poverty, and sex itself is free.

Control or education?

control by force or indoctrination though education. the method isnt really important.

Birth rates are declining in India too and they will also probably eventually have 0% growth rate in the future.

actually thats not true india's birthrates are still very high and really has no signs of slowing down. search projected population india

 

[params7]

Smaller population would mean abandoned roads and infrastructure, even higher unemployment rate because companies shutting down because of labour shortages and lack of sales due to the shrinking of the market, and the whole economy would be in the shitter because GDP will shrink every year.

None of the problems you listed would be fixed with a smaller population.

How is empty rooms a problem? As technology advances the need for labor (as we know it) is diminishing. Walmart can probably go automatic checkouts if they wanted to but probably can't because of the people they'd cut lose and this is just a very frontline, basic example. The roads are overflowing and traffic moves at 2mph at peak times...and abandoned roads? I'm not going for mass extinction or apocalypse-tier reduction here, but there is a crisis we are facing right now and the solution is definitely not "have more babies". You probably don't even feel it, but I grew up in India and I've seen the problems overpopulation can cause. Its the root of literally every crisis India is facing right now.

Every nation's government on this planet has their people calling them corrupted. But if I have to share a large pizza with 2 strangers I won't mind. If I know 200 more are coming up and this will be our only food source I will hoard it. Am I being corrupted by doing this? People come into powerful positions and secure themselves first while the general mass cries being ruled by corruption and greed. Probably something to discuss with another thread though but my point really is the world can do with a lower unemployment rate. With lesser competition, people will feel less threatened, and their will be lesser conflicts-cheating-corruption against one another.

 

[CrocMother]

i dont think hinduism forbids contraception. i think they just have sex because so much of their population lives in poverty, and sex itself is free.

Like milanbaros stated earlier, it is heavily related to women's education.

If you are a woman and uneducated, you don't have many other options but to marry or live with your parents until they die.

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

If only you could get pregnant by facial bukkake...

 

[milanbaros]

Economists may hate shrinking populations, but the shit is necessary.

Economists don't hate shrinking populations, they are broadly positive on lower population growth because it has a positive effect on the capital:labour ratio.

Economists are negative on the effect of a declining working-age share on per capita income, which is much the bigger story in Japan.

 

[AAequal]

japan is just decades more advanced than the rest of the world.

population control is a NECESSITY for humans to continue to exist on earth. india needs to adopt this philosophy.

Agreed to degree. Long as we want to care for our elderly we can't just stop having babies. You can't have massive population of elderly people and small precentage of young people to pay for the living of old folks.

 

[HoodWinked]

Economists don't hate shrinking populations, they are broadly positive on lower population growth because it has a positive effect on the capital:labour ratio.

Economists are negative on the effect of a declining working-age share on per capita income, which is much the bigger story in Japan.

population is never going to reduce from top down so thats a moot point. unless all elderly get shipped off into a black hole. even worse japanese have extremely long life expectancy.

Agreed to degree. Long as we want to care for our elderly we can't just stop having babies. You can't have massive population of elderly people and small precentage of young people to pay for the living of old folks.

need robotic elderly care

 

[Neo C.]

If every country does this than would we really have cultural diversity in the world? Every country would just become more or less the same.

The difference between them shrinks, but you will still see the big cultural difference. I can tell because I know how (the chinese) diaspora looks like.

This system kinda works places like Canada or the US, but it doesn't works as well in countries who aren't the product of immigration and with a ethno-cultural identity, like Japan. Heck, Japan is so xenophobic they even have a hard time accepting Japanese returnees (namely Japanese-Brazilians).

You can see it this way:
1) Switzerland has been existed for over 700 years (modern Switzerland: 160 years), but immigration works. Then again, you could say Switzerland has a 700 years history of immigration.
2) But in this case, you could also say every country is a product of immigration. Japan isn't as monolithic as they want to believe. It's kinda bizarr to hear my japanese teacher telling us that the north and south part of Japan aren't "real" Japanese (= not the same ethnicities).

Edit: What about China? do they have a larger amount of older people or younger? I know they control the population growth now.

It's going to look grim. Not only ratio of old people is going up fast, but China also doesn't have a long history of retirement system. For comparison sake, in Europe the retirement instutions started in the 19th century. I don't know if China is ready for the next few decades.

what if the population keeps growing like in the rest of world or like in India? Sure, the economics need the population growth to keep growing as a business, they need more people to keep buying more things; but what happens when we hit saturation point? what then?

There`s only so much the world can take.

I am willing to bet that will be much worse case scenario than what any decrease in population can ever create.

A decreased population suffers decades, if not centuries from the effects. The fall of the northern Italien cities due to plague was an impressive example.

Best scenario is a very slow growth, because it gives the economy and the government the time to act and react.

 

[Natetan]

yeah this all kind of sucks.

I'm all for reducing the world's population, but the reality isnt so nice. I think by 2050 or something there with be 1 retired person receiving benefits for every 2-3 people or something. It's not sustainable.

And they still have age 60 mandatory retirement when people easily live over 80 here.

I guess theyll have to eliminate retirement. Honestly if we eliminated retirement, falling population wouldn't be an issue.

 

[evil solrac v3.0]

let's just do like the wild and eat the old and infirm.

 

[AAequal]

It will really interesting to see how Japanese political sphere is going to change, up coming years. Politicans don't need to care for youth vote much longer. There were already some issues with funding the rebuildings of small fishing villages after the Tsunami. Younger people didn't want to rebuild the small fishing communities but instead centralize all the communitys into one big community. Old folks of course had more votes and got their funding.

Edit: What about China? do they have a larger amount of older people or younger? I know they control the population growth now.

China doesn't care if you are old or young, you will work either way.

 

[CrocMother]

It will really interesting to see how Japanese political sphere is going to change up coming years. Politicans don't need to care for youth vote much longer. There were already some issues with funding the rebuildings of small fishing villages after the Tsunami. Younger people didn't want to rebuild the small fishing communities but instead centralize all the communitys into one big community. Old folks of course had more votes and got their funding.

A pretty interesting article by the NYT talking about how businesses are already shifting to cater to the aging population in Japan.

 

[jaxword]

All this talk of being old and infirm and generally useless is pretty depressing.

I kind of hope I'm dead before I'm a dead weight on my family.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

All this talk of being old and infirm and generally useless is pretty depressing.

I kind of hope I'm dead before I'm a dead weight on my family.

 

[Vermillion]

Finally something the Vita beat

Dammmmnnnn

 

[jaxword]

Well, it's true. I don't want my grandkids to see me go from a strong, wise role model to some shambling shell of a human who can't count to ten anymore. That's just depressing for them.

Note that I'm saying like if I'm still alive at 90 or something. I don't mean I want to kick the bucket tomorrow, I'm not even done college.

 

[CrocMother]

Well, it's true. I don't want my grandkids to see me go from a strong, wise role model to some shambling shell of a human who can't count to ten anymore. That's just depressing for them.

Note that I'm saying like if I'm still alive at 90 or something. I don't mean I want to kick the bucket tomorrow, I'm not even done college.

By the time you are that old, 90 will be the new 50.

 

[jaxword]

By the time you are that old, 90 will be the new 50.

I dunno, with the amount of alcohol and general unhealthy stuff I pour down my throat every weekend I'll be surprised I live til 30.

 

[Charles Foster Kane]

Well, it's true. I don't want my grandkids to see me go from a strong, wise role model to some shambling shell of a human who can't count to ten anymore. That's just depressing for them.

Note that I'm saying like if I'm still alive at 90 or something. I don't mean I want to kick the bucket tomorrow, I'm not even done college.

All is cool then. Personally, I feel similarly. At least I know I don`t want to be so old I lose awareness of things.

 

[jaxword]

All is cool then. Personally, I feel similarly. At least I know I don`t want to be so old I lose awareness of things.

Dying with Dignity is important and something we should encourage in our society.

A lot of people (due to religion, culture, etc.) have this stigma against those who wish to predetermine their own death. Not suicide, but actually saying "Ok, this is when I have actually done all I need to do."

See, if I'm rapidly degrading due to cancer or Alzheimer's or dementia or whatever, I don't want my family to have to clean me up after I start crapping myself daily and gurgling incoherently, or, even worse, completely immobile and half braindead and kept alive by some machines.

No, there's a time to accept when your story is done and your song is sung.

Terry Pratchett is currently dying of Alzheimer's. He's a brilliant man and one of the world's greatest artists. He knows he will eventually be a shell of a human, unable to think or even take care of himself. He's a big advocate of the right to die with dignity, and he will likely euthanize himself soon. When he does, I'll respect that choice and encourage others to understand and respect it as well.

I think our society would be better off once we accept that people have the right to choose when their lives have run their course. That's not devaluing life, it's respecting it.

 

[Dead Man]

Economists don't hate shrinking populations, they are broadly positive on lower population growth because it has a positive effect on the capital:labour ratio.

Economists are negative on the effect of a declining working-age share on per capita income, which is much the bigger story in Japan.

Since one is impossible without the other, I will stand by my statement that economists hate shrinking populations.

 

[Valnen]

Not only are expectations on younger people insane in Japan, women's expectations of men and their careers are also quite ridiculous over there. Basically unless you're an extremely successful businessman making top dollar a lot of women won't even give you the time of day, or so I've read. And not everyone can be in that position for society to function, so...

 

[milanbaros]

Since one is impossible without the other, I will stand by my statement that economists hate shrinking populations.

No, you're making all sorts of assumptions. Economists don't hate shrinking populations.

 

[jaxword]

Basically unless you're an extremely successful businessman making top dollar a lot of women won't even give you the time of day, or so I've read.

Sounds like capitalism to me.

Women don't give me the time of day because I'm not rich.

Well that and I'm completely hideous.

 

[Valnen]

Sounds like capitalism to me.

It's also probably one of the causes of this problem.

 

[Dead Man]

No, you're making all sorts of assumptions. Economists don't hate shrinking populations.

How in the hell do you have a shrinking population without a declining proportion of people of working age?

 

[milanbaros]

How in the hell do you have a shrinking population without a declining proportion of people of working age?

You're making assumptions about the magnitude of the effects of the two factors.

Edit: To answer your particular question though, have a look at the UN population projections website. Japan' dependency ratio is forecast to peak in 2055 but its population is expected to continue falling until the end of the century. A falling population and rising working share could trigger a per capita income boom in the 2nd half of the 21st century.

 

[StoppedInTracks]

Ideally you want 2.1% population growth, which is right where the US is (but only due to immigration). There are a lot of economic variables to factor in, and each country has unique problems.

In general, having a larger % of your population in retirement than working (and paying taxes) is an economic nightmare, and when you combine that with growing life expectancy it does become a long term problem.

This is very bad.

US by comparison

Heh, that Obama pic begs for a "Problem Japan?" caption.

 

[Tabris]

Agreed to degree. Long as we want to care for our elderly we can't just stop having babies. You can't have massive population of elderly people and small precentage of young people to pay for the living of old folks.

That's a finite problem though. Once Japan, and soon (I mean soon as they enter the problem scenario) the rest of western society (outside of US as they will take a while to hit it) get past the population age difference, then they will be laughing to the bank.

A society that has less older and less younger people to have to take care of, is a better society.

 

[Shadow of the BEAST]

This is great news for japan.

With 3d printing and modern technologies. There wont be a need for a huge workforce. A lot of things will be automated in the future.

 

[ClassyPenguin]

This thread reminds me of my Anthropology class on demographics.
Good times.

 

[norinrad]

Have more sex

They are except not with their wives

 

[EulaCapra]

Eek. Save some of that low birthrate for the U.S. and India.

 

[Lesiroth]

Japan is like ahead of everyone. Super economic power, ends up in a never-ending recession, super-low birth rate, and now they will try to save their race by developing a cure to stop aging.

It will be like a science-fiction novel. They will give immunity against aging to those who have kids, to preserve their race. Some Japanese will protest that not having access to immortality is the equivalent of being given a death sentence. The international community will complain, condemn Japan for ethical reasons, etc.

It would make for a good book.

Nanomachines?!

 

[Chinner]

not surprised considering the work culture.

 

[Raonak]

Doesn't japan have a crazy high population density?

not nessicerly a bad thing that their population scales back a bit.

 

[AAequal]

not surprised considering the work culture.

Yeah, the worker ant society most certainly doesn't encourage anyone to have kids.

 

[leroidys]

japan is just decades more advanced than the rest of the world.

population control is a NECESSITY for humans to continue to exist on earth. india needs to adopt this philosophy.

Birth rate in India actually isn't all that high. The thing is, population growth is exponential, so if you have 1 billion people, your population grows a huge fucking amount with any birth rate above replacement.

 

[SquiddyCracker]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/world_now/2012/08/japan-population-low-birthrate.html

Now the big question is whether or not they'll manage to get fully functional nursing robots out in time to fix this crisis. Further automation should take care of an ever-diminishing labor force - so everything should be fine so long as they manage to keep up technological progress.

Because that's probably the only viable solution, no way they will open up their borders as an ever-increasing percentage of the voters consist of old people (who are generally more conservative than younger people).

 

[Phoenix]

So you do concede the over population is a big problem, considering you say the countries that overpopulate will want to take the resources off the ones that actually managed theirs. This isn`t just a nation problem, It`s a world one. There will be a time when there isn`t a choice but to do something. I just hope it`s not too late.

It has been that way forever. Resource contention is the underlying reason for most wars. However what you're saying is similar to "stop using gas" as opposed to "be substantially more efficient with gas". The first is impossible - our species is born to procreate. The later is a responsible response to the reality that the first is not possible.

You would better impact the carrying capacity of the planet by reducing over-consumption and deploying the technology that helps with that as opposed to saying "don't breed".