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Robots to steal 20 million factory jobs by 2030

Super Mario

Banned
Machine automation has been happening since the cotton gin. This is nothing new.

If anything, these advances in automation greatly help the west. Without the labor cost advantage, places in China lose a big edge. Not only that, but combined with having to ship the product, where is the advantage?

Sure we may lose a few menial jobs. In it's place, we will see a few more better jobs like engineering
 

Skyfox

Member
Where’s the cheap robot that will show up at my house at a convenient time, accompany me up the stairs, then climb the ladder to my attic, remove some messed up plumbing (vent system), replace it, and install the new vent tile on my roof?

Cos I’ve been waiting months for my plumber to do it :(
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Robots and automation.

1. Bad for unskilled people

2. Great for anyone who is techie and can design, build, program and repair gear
 

ph33rknot

Banned
There are two things that reports like this rarely take in to account:

1) While manual robots can replace humans in 'doing power', it's far easier to replace humans in thinking power. We shouldn't be concerned with the low-skilled jobs being removed, as people from one low-skilled job can transition into another low-skilled job. The concern should be office jobs being replace by advanced AI. If software suites such as SAP are anything to go by, the back office is under more attack than the shop floor. What do we do then with 1000's of highly educated people, who's only real option is to become a mechanic or burger flipper?

2) All this automation requires a tremendous amount of resources to design, build and maintain. While resource scarcity and acquisition is a topic for another thread, how are third world countries and heavily populated western countries supply the demand for enormous amounts of electricity? Not only does the automation require it, but electric vehicles, smart phones, computers, consoles, to name a few, will be supping the power like nothing we have ever seen before.

Before we turn into luddites and denounce automation, shouting that "the robots tuk r jebs" we should think seriously about how we will supply enough environmentally friendly electricity to all these growing projects?
Computers replacing people at the top is ok with me less skimming off the top
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
There are two things that reports like this rarely take in to account:

1) While manual robots can replace humans in 'doing power', it's far easier to replace humans in thinking power. We shouldn't be concerned with the low-skilled jobs being removed, as people from one low-skilled job can transition into another low-skilled job. The concern should be office jobs being replace by advanced AI. If software suites such as SAP are anything to go by, the back office is under more attack than the shop floor. What do we do then with 1000's of highly educated people, who's only real option is to become a mechanic or burger flipper?

2) All this automation requires a tremendous amount of resources to design, build and maintain. While resource scarcity and acquisition is a topic for another thread, how are third world countries and heavily populated western countries supply the demand for enormous amounts of electricity? Not only does the automation require it, but electric vehicles, smart phones, computers, consoles, to name a few, will be supping the power like nothing we have ever seen before.

Before we turn into luddites and denounce automation, shouting that "the robots tuk r jebs" we should think seriously about how we will supply enough environmentally friendly electricity to all these growing projects?
The traditional paper pusher has been in decline for probably 40 years. It will never be 100% automated, as every large company will need some grunts to do low end boring admin work, which often stems from customers who are small and still rely on ordering/processing things manually. And some do the traditional order with people writing orders on paper like this is 1950.

But office brains transition to analysis and strategy which no robot can do (at least I've never seen it). Automation can store humongous databases, but a human brain analyzes it. And you need teams to figure out how to make and maintain them. It's not an IT moron that puts this stuff together. These are skilled people who can build backend data systems for people (as you said SAP is one program). And since it's rare to have black and white judgement calls, it makes a robot AI even less valuable.
 
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The traditional paper pusher has been in decline for probably 40 years. It will never be 100% automated, as every large company will need some grunts to do low end boring admin work, which often stems from customers who are small and still rely on ordering/processing things manually. And some do the traditional order with people writing orders on paper like this is 1950.

But office brains transition to analysis and strategy which no robot can do (at least I've never seen it). Automation can store humongous databases, but a human brain analyzes it. And you need teams to figure out how to make and maintain them. It's not an IT moron that puts this stuff together. These are skilled people who can build backend data systems for people (as you said SAP is one program). And since it's rare to have black and white judgement calls, it makes a robot AI even less valuable.

All managerial decisions come down to a yes/no answer. Most of HR is so black and white that you could replace HR with AI. Purchasing departments could be shuttered almost completely. All purchasing is based on what is used, when and how much is needed. Logistics is all self driven and self storage/retrieval. Finance can be all AI.

A lot of the issues stopping the back end from becoming Ai is the reluctance to work to modern day rule and not, as you say, work like it is 1950.

SAP has a mid to long-term plan on refusing to do business with any company that doesn't have SAP. Seems as most small firms can't afford it or don't need it, it will place these outside of the range to buy materials or make/sell goods.

In a world-class company, there isn't any decision that's reactionary as everything is planned down to the minute. Sure shit goes wrong and people will always need to be there, but 90% of the office can be fired tomorrow and replaced by a super-computer
 

way more

Member
A robot tries to take my job I'm gonna kick it's butt.

601px-MA-shot-4.jpg
 

nocsi

Member
So a restructuring of the job market is going to be needed. Some possible implementations are:

1. Make the standard shift to be a half shift for many of these jobs so more people can be employed.
2. Make universal basic income a standard. I don't know why many people is against this. If we're not going to have jobs people will still need money to survive or do you prefer to see people starving on the streets in your cities?
3. Create sort of community-centered participation where each person have skills which help a neighbor and in turn that neighbor returns the help with their own skills. So if a neighbor knows about plumbing then he will take care when their neighbor's plumbing issues while this neighbor might know about computers and return the favor when the neighbors computer doesn't work. Cities could structure communities based on skill mixing and then the universal basic income will be sort of justified by this community service.
4. Make people also participate in menial jobs from time to time once per week. So a small job can be done by many different people and a person can develop many different types of job skills and be more flexible on where to work.

I have an easier solution. Instead of the above - anyone that has lived an existence that can be automated shall be conscripted and sent off to wage war. WWIII will be various countries sending their 'useless' to cleanse one another.
 

Sakura

Member
Eh I don't buy it. If there is mass unemployment then nobody is making money to pay for the goods/services and the companies would eventually be making less money.
Also there would likey be mass rioting/violence.

Something would have to give at some point. All it would take is a guy running on a policy of banning robots.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Automation over the past 50 years can't be that bad. Unemployment rates are at record lows, and people's wages are still going up.

If robots were that bad, you'd have tons of jobless people and every business that uses robots/AI would be self run making remaining people minimum wage desperate job seekers.

But that' not true.

Just like the horse and buggy driver going away, Blockbuster going away, and whichever workers helped put together VCRs, it gets replaced with better higher paying jobs over time churning out better products.
 

pel1300

Member
It's a simple calculus this economy is finite its opportunity finite if automation is left unchecked opportunity will cease to exist. IT Needs correction.

Andrew Yang 2020
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
It's a simple calculus this economy is finite its opportunity finite if automation is left unchecked opportunity will cease to exist. IT Needs correction.

Andrew Yang 2020
The same Andrew Yang who says giving people guaranteed minimum income for sitting at home doing nothing all day is somehow good for the economy.

So instead of trying to get work and be productive, responsible and contribute to society, it's better to just wing it, sit at home and give up on life. Why work a minimum wage job, when free Basic Universal Income can mostly comp it?



What motivates you in life?....... I dunno? Sit at home and get free money.

- Said no responsible parent, guidance counselor or person ever.
 
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