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[Opiate]

The decline was session sell-off lead by the contagion effect of Apple, RIM, Google tanking when the VIX approached historic lows on the CBOE, wiping out pretty much all of the the session's CPI based rally across all indices.

I don't know why people put so much emphasis on SCEI when it comes to Sony earning's. Counts for pittance in sales for them. Their guidance for the rest of the year is based on SEL just turning itself around. No doubt SCEI not leaking money is helpful.

Are you talking about here? Obviously people put that emphasis on SCEI because it's a gaming community. Or do you mean more broadly? I haven't seen too many firms chastising Sony for the poor performance of SCEI -- at worst, it's implied by not citing it as an impetus for Sony's recent good fortunes, as most of the upturn can be contributed to the jettisoned divisions that weren't performing well and the increasing profitability of SEL.

Am I just looking in the wrong places? Have a significant number of financial experts gone out of their way to cite the poor performance of SCEI?

 

[jarrod]

PSP still has 149, 129, 99, 75 price ranges. I would guess another hardware rivision and a telephone version. GPS and tv services. GTMobile, and the fact that a lot of Japanese companies are now shifting more focus to the PSP. As far as I'm concern its just getting started. Wouldnt surprise me if it reaches 100mil after its expected 10 year life cycle.

What you will see is lower budget games as Companies take fewer risks.

No Japanese firms are "shifting resources" to PSP. In fact what we're seeing is companies worldwide "shifting resources" away from the platform wholesale... it's almost like GameCube in 2004/2005, only with a weaker 1st party commitment.

100m is a benchmark we won't be seeing any PlayStation hit this cycle unfortunately... and 70-80m (literally *double* where PSP's at today) is laughable. It had a nice peak this year, but it'll never match those sales and it won't last 10 years on shelves (like it's big brother).

 

[Bearillusion]

No Japanese firms are "shifting resources" to PSP. In fact what we're seeing is companies worldwide "shifting resources" away from the platform wholesale... it's almost like GameCube in 2004/2005, only with a weaker 1st party commitment.

100m is a benchmark we won't be seeing any PlayStation hit this cycle unfortunately... and 70-80m (literally *double* where PSP's at today) is laughable. It had a nice peak this year, but it'll never match those sales and it won't last 10 years on shelves (like it's big brother).

Good thing you cleared that up.

 

[jarrod]

Good thing you cleared that up.

It's just laying it out... I mean what exactly is going to push PSP sales to double where they're at today and eventually reach "Game Boy numbers" (much less 100m)? What's going to cause the platform to even accelerate in sales?

Support's dried up and what games do release still sell appreciably less than they would on consoles (which is what led us to the current day developer drop out, nevermind the rampant PS2 ports), and while the hardware moves good units monthly, it's doing it on the back of a (not-yet-year-old) redesign. The matriculation argument (10 year plan!) is hugely short sighted and doesn't really consider market factors or how this industry traditionally works... Sony can't keep shelf space through force of will alone, and really there's not much else on the horizon to make much of an argument for other reasons the thing might actually be at retail in 2010+.


The platform bottoming out around 60m (still hugely impressive) with a successor or by December 3rd 2010 seems far, far more likely imo. We might also get a phone variant, though I'm not sure if that'll come from SCE or be called "PSP".

 

[Panajev2001a]

It's just laying it out... I mean what exactly is going to push PSP sales to double where they're at today and eventually reach "Game Boy numbers" (much less 100m)? What's going to cause the platform to even accelerate in sales?

Support's dried up and what games do release still sell appreciably less than they would on consoles (which is what led us to the current day developer drop out, nevermind the rampant PS2 ports), and while the hardware moves good units monthly, it's doing it on the back of a (not-yet-year-old) redesign. The matriculation argument (10 year plan!) is hugely short sighted and doesn't really consider market factors or how this industry traditionally works... Sony can't keep shelf space through force of will alone, and really there's not much else on the horizon to make much of an argument for other reasons the thing might actually be at retail in 2010+.


The platform bottoming out around 60m (still hugely impressive) with a successor or by December 3rd 2010 seems far, far more likely imo. We might also get a phone variant, though I'm not sure if that'll come from SCE or be called "PSP".

I do not expect PSP2 games to be PS3 sized... they might even be 1-2 GB in size depending on the game and by 2009-2010 online distribution of games in that range might be possible. Digital Distribution could be a nice way to help reduce the piracy effects on game sales on PSP and PSP2.

Expect a PSP2 with significantly more software delivered through an online store than PSP1 did... let's see how much of their catalog appears on the PSN/PSP store in the following years... maybe a UMD-less PSP2 SKU is possible (one SKU with a slimline UMD slot and one SKU without).

 

[Stumpokapow]

Expect a PSP2 with significantly more software delivered through an online store than PSP1 did... let's see how much of their catalog appears on the PSN/PSP store in the following years... maybe a UMD-less PSP2 SKU is possible (one SKU with a slimline UMD slot and one SKU without).

You know, before now I would have said "nah", but between Echochrome and Warhawk and Tekken5DR, it wouldn't really surprise me anymore.

 

[jarrod]

Expect a PSP2 with significantly more software delivered through an online store than PSP1 did... let's see how much of their catalog appears on the PSN/PSP store in the following years... maybe a UMD-less PSP2 SKU is possible (one SKU with a slimline UMD slot and one SKU without).

I think that route has huge potential, though they'll need to abandon the razor/blades model if they want retail to carry it. Or at least hand retail a healthy margin. :lol

Actually, I could see a UMD-less PSP1 redesign too in the next 2 years even... whichever handheld maker moves wholesale to DD first is going to have a huge advantage imo.

 

[PistolGrip]

It's just laying it out... I mean what exactly is going to push PSP sales to double where they're at today and eventually reach "Game Boy numbers" (much less 100m)? What's going to cause the platform to even accelerate in sales?

Price drops and services. Its the number one selling Playstation console for the year. You keep going on about the slim design causing high sales but the US didnt see any increase due to the redesign. Only Japan did. US is waiting for a price drop IMO and it shuld be coming this fall.

Support's dried up and what games do release still sell appreciably less than they would on consoles (which is what led us to the current day developer drop out, nevermind the rampant PS2 ports), and while the hardware moves good units monthly, it's doing it on the back of a (not-yet-year-old) redesign. The matriculation argument (10 year plan!) is hugely short sighted and doesn't really consider market factors or how this industry traditionally works... Sony can't keep shelf space through force of will alone, and really there's not much else on the horizon to make much of an argument for other reasons the thing might actually be at retail in 2010+.

Why do they need to fight to keep shelfspace? PSPs are selling better than PS2s and PS3s worldwide!!! PSP also just had the best spring out of any console. Patapon, FFVII:CC, GoW, Wipeout pulse not to mention nice little downloadable titles like echochrome and logan's shadow. The software doesnt sell amazingly well due to piracy and other factors but you cannot say support is dried up. Look at Namco's recent financial report. They are inscreasing PSP games this year and less DS games. EA is making good money on the PSP so why not have better support for it? Other dev houses have claim to increase support.

The platform bottoming out around 60m (still hugely impressive) with a successor or by December 3rd 2010 seems far, far more likely imo. We might also get a phone variant, though I'm not sure if that'll come from SCE or be called "PSP".

A successor cost money and time to build up. Again, why would they introduce a successor if the current one has only seen one true price drop, is selling better than any of their other systems, and the division is losing money? The PSP will stick around until 2011-12 IMO. There really is no need for a newer version, harware revision yes, but not a PSP2

 

[Jokeropia]

Why do they need to fight to keep shelfspace? PSPs are selling better than PS2s and PS3s worldwide!!!

PSP games are not. (Well, maybe better than PS3 games.)

 

[Stormbringer]

Tecmo results are up :

http://www.tecmo.co.jp/company/data/20080514gaikyo_e.pdf

Not much in there unfortunately, besides maybe that we learn that they outperformed their sales and profits target, that their profits declined year-on-year despite increased sales, and that Ninja Gaiden Sigma and Ninja Gaiden DS cumulative shipments are respectively 640,000 and 200,000...

Anyway, this reminds me : do Tecmo hold a Gamer's Day/Media Day this year ? Last year's was held around May 11st, and I was wondering whether we would see something from them soon...

 

[Salazar]

Anyway, this reminds me : do Tecmo hold a Gamer's Day/Media Day this year ? Last year's was held around May 11st, and I was wondering whether we would see something from them soon...

Was the announcement (I think I remember one) that they are going to be at E3 significant, surprising, or something to get excited about ?

 

[Stormbringer]

Was the announcement (I think I remember one) that they are going to be at E3 significant, surprising, or something to get excited about ?

Well, apparently not, given that I completely missed it, or forgot about it...But the fact is, this announcement could probably mean that we're not going to see an early event from them, especially given that their last year event was probably held to make up for the fact that they missed E3 2007...

 

[jarrod]

Price drops and services. Its the number one selling Playstation console for the year.

Official services don't seem to be big consumer draws imo, it's the homebrew scene that's really kept PSP going. Price drops will definitely help to a degree, I expect we'll see PSP priced the at parity with DS soon. The US has had several high profile, hugely promoted bundle deals effectively dropping the price (or increasing the "value") for PSP though... honestly, I'm not sure a price drop would have as significant an effect on sales acceleration as you seem to think, especially when paired with the bleak software landscape. There seems to be a disconnect here, this isn't about PSP selling well, it's about PSP somehow selling better than it is now...

You keep going on about the slim design causing high sales but the US didnt see any increase due to the redesign. Only Japan did. US is waiting for a price drop IMO and it shuld be coming this fall.

American PSP sales increased correlating with Slim, but it was also during a period where platform sales tend to increase regardless... but it wasn't the stark turnaround Japan was no.

Why do they need to fight to keep shelfspace?

For some mythical 10 year plan and the great white hope of magically moving Game Boy figures.

PSP also just had the best spring out of any console. Patapon, FFVII:CC, GoW, Wipeout pulse not to mention nice little downloadable titles like echochrome and logan's shadow. The software doesnt sell amazingly well due to piracy and other factors but you cannot say support is dried up.

1st party games and a lone (likely money hatted) 3rd party project announced pre-launch doesn't exactly instill confidence.

Look at Namco's recent financial report. They are inscreasing PSP games this year and less DS games.

You mean the report whose numbers contradict actual announcements and known shipment data? As of right now, Namco has zero PSP games in the pipeline (though Bandai has 3 coming).

A successor cost money and time to build up. Again, why would they introduce a successor if the current one has only seen one true price drop, is selling better than any of their other systems, and the division is losing money? The PSP will stick around until 2011-12 IMO. There really is no need for a newer version, harware revision yes, but not a PSP2

It'll be on a 6 year cycle imo, just like every other PlayStation. Spring 2011 at the absolute latest.

 

[Stormbringer]

By the way, here are Sega software sales and platforms spread, from their investors conference :

           [  RESULTS FY2008  ]       [  FORECASTS FY2009  ]

            Nb of       Units                                 
            titles      Sold            "            "
                                              
PS2         12          1.60M           9          1.31M
PS3         16          1.92M          28          4.89M
Wii         28          6.73M          21          4.04M
360         19          2.28M          21          3.75M
NDS         28          4.23M          43          6.08M
PSP         14          1.27M           4          0.40M
PC          21          1.69M          18          2.58M

Source

Looks like they have a lot of faith in the PS3...

 

[RagnarokX]

By the way, here are Sega software sales and platforms spread, from their investors conference :

           [  RESULTS FY2008  ]       [  FORECASTS FY2009  ]

            Nb of       Units                                 
            titles      Sold            "            "
                                              
PS2         12          1.60M           9          1.31M
PS3         16          1.92M          28          4.89M
Wii         28          6.73M          21          4.04M
360         19          2.28M          21          3.75M
NDS         28          4.23M          43          6.08M
PSP         14          1.27M           4          0.40M
PC          21          1.69M          18          2.58M

Source

Looks like they have a lot of faith in the PS3...

heh, oh sega

 

[Lobster]

Looks like Shenmue 3 is going to be announced for Ps3.

 

[legend166]

How the hell can a company like SEGA release more titles for the PS3 than the Wii?

Holy crap they're stupid. Super Monkey Ball came out 7 years ago, and they still haven't realised that their largest userbase is on Nintendo consoles?

 

[BTRA]

How the hell can a company like SEGA release more titles for the PS3 than the Wii?

Holy crap they're stupid. Super Monkey Ball came out 7 years ago, and they still haven't realised that their largest userbase is on Nintendo consoles?

Super Monkey Ball 2 or the Super Monkeyball Adventure, Super Monkeyball DS, Super Monkeyball Wii ring a bell?

 

[Lobster]

How the hell can a company like SEGA release more titles for the PS3 than the Wii?

Holy crap they're stupid. Super Monkey Ball came out 7 years ago, and they still haven't realised that their largest userbase is on Nintendo consoles?

Well to be fair.

Most of Ps3s games will be multiplat.

Most likely only 7 of those Ps3 games will be kind of exclusive.

Most of the Wii games will be either Wii, DS or Wii exclusive.

 

[legend166]

Super Monkey Ball 2 or the Super Monkeyball Adventure, Super Monkeyball DS, Super Monkeyball Wii ring a bell?

That's not what I meant.

Super Monkey Ball was one of Sega's first titles as a third party publisher. It sold well over a million copies. From then, most people could have told you that their largest audience and fanbase were on the GCN. They instead made a bunch of Xbox games that flopped. Their paltry GCN games continued to sell. Now we enter this generation. Their Wii games have been big successes (cept for Nights, lolol, sorry Segata if you're reading). So instead of making it their primary development platform like a sane company would do, they don't. Look at Sonic Unleashed. Even after the horrible sales of Sonic 06, and the great sales of Secret rings, they decide to make 360/PS3 the primary platform.

Sega is just one company that consistantly manages to out-retard itself at every turn.

 

[jj984jj]

Sega's business sense will never change. :lol

 

[HK-47]

Sega's business sense will never change. :lol

Everyone stereotypes Japanese as smart...but Sega, Konami, and Bamco certainly knock that perception down

 

[jgwhiteus]

The reduction in projected Wii sales makes sense in that Sega doesn't have another M&S in the pipeline...but yeah, I'm not seeing where they're getting their expected increase in PS3 sales from. Maybe strong sales in Europe? (though in the UK at least it seems Sega sells the most on the Wii, so I don't know how they'd project their PS3 performance to pass that)

 

[LCGeek]

That's not what I meant.

Super Monkey Ball was one of Sega's first titles as a third party publisher. It sold well over a million copies. From then, most people could have told you that their largest audience and fanbase were on the GCN. They instead made a bunch of Xbox games that flopped. Their paltry GCN games continued to sell. Now we enter this generation. Their Wii games have been big successes (cept for Nights, lolol, sorry Segata if you're reading). So instead of making it their primary development platform like a sane company would do, they don't. Look at Sonic Unleashed. Even after the horrible sales of Sonic 06, and the great sales of Secret rings, they decide to make 360/PS3 the primary platform.

Sega is just one company that consistantly manages to out-retard itself at every turn.

Capcom is just as bad same for namco though to lesser degrees.

 

[titiklabingapat]

After a pretty successful fy 08, it seems that they've botched it again for 09. Oh Sega.

 

[Lobster]

After a pretty successful fy 08, it seems that they've botched it again for 09. Oh Sega.

No matter how succesful SEGA is Sammy will always bring them down.

Check out their financial report..

 

[HK-47]

No matter how succesful SEGA is Sammy will always bring them down.

Check out their financial report..

Umm Sega was partly to blame for that as well...

 

[legend166]

No matter how succesful SEGA is Sammy will always bring them down.

Check out their financial report..

You already said that and it was already proved wrong. Sega (the game developer/publisher) lost 90 million dollars.

 

[Lobster]

You already said that and it was already proved wrong. Sega (the game developer/publisher) lost 90 million dollars.

I'd like to be linked to the post where I was proven wrong.

 

[legend166]

I'd like to be linked to the post where I was proven wrong.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11179267&postcount=250

Turns out it was 80 million. The 90 million was the arcades.

 

[Opiate]

I'd like to be linked to the post where I was proven wrong.

It's impossible to separate the Games Division entirely from all other sectors of the company, but you're right that the Games did better than most other sectors.

http://www.segasammy.co.jp/english/pdf/release/flash_report_final_20080513.pdf

Operating Income for the "Consumer Business" segment, which includes Video Games and Toys, was (57.6), or -57.6 million, approximately. Quite likely, the Net Income was even lower, but that's not available for this segment individually.

 

[Lobster]

Wow ok.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

By the way, here are Sega software sales and platforms spread, from their investors conference :

           [  RESULTS FY2008  ]       [  FORECASTS FY2009  ]

            Nb of       Units                                 
            titles      Sold            "            "
                                              
PS2         12          1.60M           9          1.31M
PS3         16          1.92M          28          4.89M
Wii         28          6.73M          21          4.04M
360         19          2.28M          21          3.75M
NDS         28          4.23M          43          6.08M
PSP         14          1.27M           4          0.40M
PC          21          1.69M          18          2.58M

Source

Looks like they have a lot of faith in the PS3...

Wow. Really a stupid forecast. Why this drop-off for PSP's and Wii's support?

It seems they want to support PS3, X360 and PC this year.

 

[Esperado]

Wow. Really a stupid forecast. Why this drop-off for PSP's and Wii's support?

It seems they want to support PS3, X360 and PC this year.

To be honest, a lot of these games have probably been in development for a couple years. The industry is still catching up to Nintendo's success. They can't see sales today and have a the game out tomorrow. Wii support is coming.

 

[legend166]

To be honest, a lot of these games have probably been in development for a couple years. The industry is still catching up to Nintendo's success. They can't see sales today and have a the game out tomorrow. Wii support is coming.

That doesn't exactly explain why support decreased.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

To be honest, a lot of these games have probably been in development for a couple years. The industry is still catching up to Nintendo's success. They can't see sales today and have a the game out tomorrow. Wii support is coming.

Yeah, but PSP's drop is pariculary strong and after its "come-back" in Japan, it seems a dumb move in my opinion.

 

[Phife Dawg]

:lol Oh Sega...This combined with

In the console entertainment software division of the consumer business segment, we will work to generate revenue, by selling licensed film titles in overseas markets and significant revision of the line-up strategies in the Japanese market.

makes it hard to be a Sega fan. If they continue this route they might not get back to the "old" Sega ever (and continue to lose money).

I hope continued M&S sales (Olympics are right around the corner) keeps them afloat.

 

[Lobster]

That doesn't exactly explain why support decreased.

Unless it means less shitty multiplat games.

I hope thats what it means :\

 

[legend166]

Just the way they approached some of those multiplatform games is retarded.

Why you wouldn't make Wii the lead platform for Sega Superstar Tennis makes no sense.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

	[b]Sony		Nintendo		Microsoft		Industry[/b]
1998	1,253,000,000	809,000,000			2,062,000,000
1999	1,431,000,000	817,000,000			2,248,000,000
2000	900,000,000	519,000,000			1,419,000,000
2001	-488,000,000	866,000,000			378,000,000
2002	731,000,000	939,000,000	-880,000,000	790,000,000
2003	1,076,000,000	642,000,000	-1,365,000,000	353,000,000
2004	731,000,000	355,000,000	-1,367,000,000	-281,000,000
2005	440,000,000	846,000,000	-528,000,000	758,000,000
2006	79,000,000	942,000,000	-1,329,000,000	-308,000,000
2007	-1,969,000,000	1,489,000,000	-1,892,000,000	-2,372,000,000
2008	-1,254,000,000	2,480,000,000	532,000,000	1,758,000,000
				
Total	
	2,930,000,000	10,704,000,000	-6,829,000,000	6,805,000,000
Average	
	266,363,636	973,090,909	-975,571,429	618,636,364
Profitable Years	
	8		11		1		8
Non-Profitable Years	
	3		0		6		3
Average in Loss Year	
	-1,237,000,000	None		-1,226,833,333	-987,000,000
Average in Profit Year	
	830,125,000	973,090,909	532,000,000	1,220,750,000

Nice update.

 

[jts]

Breaking the numbers down, Sega still expects the Wii to sell the biggest number of copies per game, though by a very small margin over the 360 and PS3 individually, while this year it sold as many copies per game as both of them combined.

And they're really pulling the plug on the PSP.

 

[HK-47]

Nice update.

To be fair you need Sega numbers for that charts to work

 

[Fafalada]

I think that route has huge potential, though they'll need to abandon the razor/blades model if they want retail to carry it.

Which is why I say the next revision will be the phone (aka PSP3000) UMD-less of course. The cost of hw inside would at worst be on par with iPhones and their kin, so they have no problem selling it competitively priced.
PSStore already carries old UMD titles, it's only a matter of time before a large part of library is online, and this way they wouldn't threaten Slim and retail SW, they evolve the market by complementing it.

There seems to be a disconnect here, this isn't about PSP selling well, it's about PSP somehow selling better than it is now...

Well at least in Japan, it's tracking to beat last year if it keeps the pace. And with certain accessories/services going on sale in other parts of the world, it's not out of the question to beat those numbers as well.
Especially if the touch panel really comes this year and it's actually positioned right (for all I know SCE could just throw it out there and forget about it, like they do with some things - or maybe it turns out to be just a crap keyboard). And of course there's always potential for pricedrops.
Yea most of this isn't really about games, but we're talking about potential hw sales anyway.

 

[Esperado]

That doesn't exactly explain why support decreased.

Probably just a bad prediction. Maybe they anticipated that it was a fad. I doubt they are going around and canceling Wii projects.

I'm guessing they thought the PSP was on a downturn as well, or just moved their resources to the DS for the sake of profitability. They probably made the decision to greenlight these projects 1-2 years ago.

 

[Lobster]

2007	-1,969,000,000	1,489,000,000	-1,892,000,000	-2,372,000,000
2008	-1,254,000,000	2,480,000,000	532,000,000	1,758,000,000

Shit..I wasn't looking at this right.

Those losses for Microsoft and Sony are in fucking billions!

 

[jakncoke]

I'm getting my PS3 at Christmas time this year and after watching the system since it launched, I am very happy in the fact that I waited. I feel bad for the early adopters though, out of all the systems that ever launch, I think the day one PS3 guys got burned the most.

how ? wouldn't buying a system such as Neo Geo and other floppers be burnt worse? I certainly would say yes...seeing PS3 has years of game support ahead.

 

[legend166]

how ? wouldn't buying a system such as Neo Geo and other floppers be burnt worse? I certainly would say yes...seeing PS3 has years of game support ahead.

The $200 pricedrop in one year is a pretty big burn. I'm actually surprised that more wasn't made of it.

 

[Lobster]

how ? wouldn't buying a system such as Neo Geo and other floppers be burnt worse? I certainly would say yes...seeing PS3 has years of game support ahead.

I believe he was referring to price.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The $200 pricedrop in one year is a pretty big burn. I'm actually surprised that more wasn't made of it.

Well, it's not like the improved price didn't come with drawbacks of its own. I mean, I'm sitting here waiting for a more expensive model to release before jumping in.

 

[avaya]

Are you talking about here? Obviously people put that emphasis on SCEI because it's a gaming community. Or do you mean more broadly? I haven't seen too many firms chastising Sony for the poor performance of SCEI -- at worst, it's implied by not citing it as an impetus for Sony's recent good fortunes, as most of the upturn can be contributed to the jettisoned divisions that weren't performing well and the increasing profitability of SEL.

Am I just looking in the wrong places? Have a significant number of financial experts gone out of their way to cite the poor performance of SCEI?

More broadly but it's a theme I've seen on the internet. When you get analysts from Japan talking they are just focused on SEL since that is make or break for Sony. The internet myopia of the console wars has infected the approach that some sites covering the markets have on Sony's wider situation. Motley Fool for example have a survey amongst their active users and most rate Sony low due to PS3 performance and it is the only reason cited. The financial analyst esitmates look at SEL and have hold to buy on Sony for the next 5yrs based on improving execution there.

The approach to SCEI and Sony on the internet is like someone prioritising the Xbox in Microsoft's revenue streams.