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[Belgorim]

360 owners on average have purchased loads more games - but this is obvious because they've also had the console for MUCH longer. But the rate at which they buy games is fairly similar to the rate at which Wii and PS3 owners buy games.

So, once the Wii install base equals the 360 install base in US (if it does), total software sales for each console, on a month on month basis, will be fairly similar if current rates continue big games releases will tip the balance though).

And if Wii maintains its software buy rate relative to 360 if it overtakes 360 in install-base (which most believe it will), Wii software will be selling more on average each month.

Before me doing this, I thought PS3 software sales were poor, even when compared to how many units it has sold, but this isn't really the case.

But even if those attach rates that you use in the OP are correct, they say nothing about when all these games are bought. If it is "front-loaded" during the launch period, then the 360 is at a dissadvantage in the comparison. Having attach rates for the 360 from last year would answer some questions. Though I guess those do not exist.

My point is the numbers only show a small picture, as have already been pointed out a few times. And they do not show the current "buy rate" at all (this should be the most interesting part).

 

[donny2112]

This is news to me. Is this true?

Any new game disk sold at a retail location that NPD tracks is counted by NPD. OXM wouldn't qualify, but all the PS2 Jampacks, etc. would.

 

[Parl]

But even if those attach rates that you use in the OP are correct, they say nothing about when all these games are bought. If it is "front-loaded" during the launch period, then the 360 is at a dissadvantage in the comparison. Having attach rates for the 360 from last year would answer some questions. Though I guess those do not exist.

My point is the numbers only show a small picture, as have already been pointed out a few times. And they do not show the current "buy rate" at all (this should be the most interesting part).

Yeah, I'm aware of that. I guess I should edit my opening post. I assumed there wouldn't be too much difference. All 3 systems have been out for a a decent while. I'd like the tie-ratio for 360 at the end of August 2006, but without it, this data would have to suffice - its competent in giving large evidence to the notion that Wii owners buy plenty of software, and if less than PS3 and 360, not by all that much.

So, the battle for software sales, if the average rates continue, is whoever has the install base. Currently 360, but for how long?

 

[Belgorim]

So, the battle for software sales, if the average rates continue, is whoever has the install base. Currently 360, but for how long?

Thats your own conclusion though. Many including me won't jump to that conclusion without more concrete data.

 

[tehrik-e-insaaf]

People

Stop saying attach rate.

That was crappy ENGRISH translation from Babel Fish for a random Japanese site that was posted here on GAF, and because of how famous GAF is, the entire world seems to be using it.

Kind of reminds me of Megaton.

Anyways, the correct term is tie-in ratio, which is what the industry has been saying since the 80s.

Thank you and have a nice day.

 

[Belgorim]

People

Stop saying attach rate.

That was crappy ENGRISH translation from Babel Fish for a random Japanese site that was posted here on GAF, and because of how famous GAF is, the entire world seems to be using it.

Kind of reminds me of Megaton.

Anyways, the correct term is tie-in ratio, which is what the industry has been saying since the 80s.

Thank you and have a nice day.

attachment rate?

 

[Parl]

Thats your own conclusion though. Many including me won't jump to that conclusion without more concrete data.

My conclusion is that if the average rates continue, the one with the bigger install base will sell most software (just about). That's the conclusion.

Obviously, average rates don't continue - with big game released, the buy rates shoot up, and without releases, they go down, but if the average rate continues.

However, as PS3 and Wii are out longer their buy rates will go down slightly, naturally. But, Wii is currently suffering a little from an artificially lowered tie-ratio from Wii Sports, so as those system owners focusing on Wii Sports have the system longer, they will increase their personal tie-ratios by a larger percentage than somebody with more games, bringing the average tie-ratio up. And many Wii gamers have been waiting for Mario Galaxy and SSBB.

With PS3, many games in 2008 that PS3 owners are waiting for when compared to this year.

 

[Kosma]

Ferrous Cranus is utterly impervious to reason, persuasion and new ideas, and when engaged in battle he will not yield an inch in his position regardless of its hopelessness. Though his thrusts are decisively repulsed, his arguments crushed in every detail and his defenses demolished beyond repair he will remount the same attack again and again with only the slightest variation in tactics. Sometimes out of pure frustration Philosopher will try to explain to him the failed logistics of his situation, or Therapist will attempt to penetrate the psychological origins of his obduracy, but, ever unfathomable, Ferrous Cranus cannot be moved.

 

[JJConrad]

We're stuck in the middle of having no directly comparible method of looking at software sales. Every method has its advantages and disadvantages. We're all trying to formulate a scenario for tommorow, but we only have a limited amount of information. And nobody can agree on what we should use.


You can say, "Lets just use the most recent numbers." But this is all past information that gives little direction for the future without further analysis. 360 has sold more software, but the Wii is quickly approaching it. Nobody should expect the most recent numbers to resemble next year's numbers.

You can say, "Let's just look at sales from the same time period." But sales rates are so different that you get vastly different results based on what you look at. In the same timeframes, 360 owner have bought more software per console than the other system's owner... However, in the same timeframe, Wii owners have bought more software than the other console's owners.

You can argue about what should and shouldn't count, but at the same time, you should recognize that all of these factors rely on each other. You can't remove one without effecting everything else.

 

[Parl]

We're stuck in the middle of having no directly comparible method of looking at software sales. Every method has its advantages and disadvantages. We're all trying to formulate a scenario for tommorow, but we only have a limited amount of information. And nobody can agree on what we should use.


You can say, "Lets just use the most recent numbers." But this is all past information that gives little direction for the future without further analysis. 360 has sold more software, but the Wii is quickly approaching it. Nobody should expect the most recent numbers to resemble next year's numbers.

You can say, "Let's just look at sales from the same time period." But sales rates are so different that you get vastly different results based on what you look at. In the same timeframes, 360 owner have bought more software per console than the other system's owner... However, in the same timeframe, Wii owners have bought more software than the other console's owners.

You can argue about what should and shouldn't count, but at the same time, you should recognize that all of these factors rely on each other. You can't remove you without effecting everything else.

Or, we'll just ignore that Wii owners buy games and say "hey, look at Wii with 500k sales this month and its catching 360 in install base, yet no software sales. People playing Wii Sports only confirmed! Look at Madden!"

 

[No6]

And the comparison to Guitar Hero is on point. I can buy Guitar Hero 2 for 360 for $80 or I can buy the guitar only for $60. That appears to be a $20 game, eh?

Wrong. You can buy the game + guitar for 90 or the game only for 60 (guitars are like 30 or so). The game is $60, and is what counts in sales. Your constant attempt to raise the status of Wii Play is completely flawed because all your counter-examples are of games that have an additional fractional price for the controller, not the other way around like with Wii Play.

There's a case to be made that Wii Play gives evidence of the strength of $10 budget titles on the Wii, but it completely breaks down when you try to compare it to full-priced titles.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

But even if those attach rates that you use in the OP are correct, they say nothing about when all these games are bought. If it is "front-loaded" during the launch period, then the 360 is at a dissadvantage in the comparison. Having attach rates for the 360 from last year would answer some questions. Though I guess those do not exist.

My point is the numbers only show a small picture, as have already been pointed out a few times. And they do not show the current "buy rate" at all (this should be the most interesting part).

This isn't quite as detailed as we could wish for, but the first time I did a look at the "games per week" stat was when MS released some X360 and PS3+Wii software sales for November 2006-August 2007, which at least cuts off the earliest period. Searching for the information... Ahh, it was 24.3 million units for X360 during that time, and 19.8 million for PS3+Wii.

Anyways, the correct term is tie-in ratio, which is what the industry has been saying since the 80s.

Pfft. The industry is no longer in the 80s, but the GAFfies.

 

[GashPrex]

What a bogus comparison....Did you read lies, damn lies and statistics or something?

 

[davepoobond]

i think tie ratio is thrown into limbo with downloadable content -- at least until its tracked by NPD.

 

[Brak]

It's funny (although not unexpected) that people are going so crazy about the Wii Sports / Wii Play stuff when really I think the most significant fact is that the PS3 is really doing pretty well.

Its software sales are just massively overshadowed by the 360 and the Wii.

 

[FrankT]

360 owners on average have purchased loads more games - but this is obvious because they've also had the console for MUCH longer. But the rate at which they buy games is fairly similar to the rate at which Wii and PS3 owners buy games.

So, once the Wii install base equals the 360 install base in US (if it does), total software sales for each console, on a month on month basis, will be fairly similar if current rates continue big games releases will tip the balance though).

And if Wii maintains its software buy rate relative to 360 if it overtakes 360 in install-base (which most believe it will), Wii software will be selling more on average each month.

Before me doing this, I thought PS3 software sales were poor, even when compared to how many units it has sold, but this isn't really the case.

Why was this thread unlocked again? This analysis is beginning to smell more and more like shit. Look back at the year in software for NPD and tell me again that PS3 software sales are anything besides poor, if not piss poor. There is a reason why Dean T. has said that Sony has pleaded with 3rd party developers to continue support not to mention the Geoff K thing on 100k or less in hardware summer rumor. Perhaps it has sold a few games to the very limited base in the US, but I'm sorry any way you cut it still isn't anything more than poor. When, according to analysts your console has "dismal' sales then you have a serious problem on your hands for not only hardware, but software to boot.

 

[McBradders]

...I am thrilled to see this thread still going, and that so many people are enjoying it.

 

[jordan0386]

It's funny (although not unexpected) that people are going so crazy about the Wii Sports / Wii Play stuff when really I think the most significant fact is that the PS3 is really doing pretty well.

Its software sales are just massively overshadowed by the 360 and the Wii.

We see success as two complete opposites then

not knocking you

 

[JJConrad]

Why was this thread unlocked again? This analysis is beginning to smell more and more like shit. Look back at the year in software for NPD and tell me again that PS3 software sales are anything besides poor, if not piss poor. There is a reason why Dean T. has said that Sony has pleaded with 3rd party developers to continue support not to mention the Geoff K thing on 100k or less in hardware summer rumor. Perhaps it has sold a few games to the very limited base in the US, but I'm sorry any way you cut it still isn't anything more than poor.

But PS3 sales are poor because of the size of its small userbase. A factor that also smell when comparing just tie-ratios. PS3 sales would be great if it could ignite its hardware sales. The problem is, no one believes that they can.

 

[Parl]

Why was this thread unlocked again? This analysis is beginning to smell more and more like shit. Look back at the year in software for NPD and tell me again that PS3 software sales are anything besides poor, if not piss poor. There is a reason why Dean T. has said that Sony has pleaded with 3rd party developers to continue support not to mention the Geoff K thing on 100k or less in hardware summer rumor. Perhaps it has sold a few games to the very limited base in the US, but I'm sorry any way you cut it still isn't anything more than poor. When, according to analysts your console has "dismal' sales then you have a serious problem on your hands for not only hardware, but software to boot.

Yeah, of course PS3 software sales are poor. Sorry, my wording was unclear. I mean that software sales in relation to hardware for PS3 isn't that bad to say it's only been out for so long. But as hardware sales are poor, software sales also poor, despite a decent tie-ratio for a system that's been out for 9.5 months (at the end of August).

 

[Des0lar]

Is this worth a new Thread?
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=29883
I know it's V* Char** but still...

 

[Belgorim]

Is this worth a new Thread?
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=29883
I know it's V* Char** but still...

ehm... do you realy want an answer for this?

 

[Des0lar]

ehm... do you realy want an answer for this?

Actually, not. I just hope someone else will do this. Could be fun.

 

[Evlar]

Wrong. You can buy the game + guitar for 90 or the game only for 60 (guitars are like 30 or so). The game is $60, and is what counts in sales. Your constant attempt to raise the status of Wii Play is completely flawed because all your counter-examples are of games that have an additional fractional price for the controller, not the other way around like with Wii Play.

There's a case to be made that Wii Play gives evidence of the strength of $10 budget titles on the Wii, but it completely breaks down when you try to compare it to full-priced titles.

Best Buy currently lists the bundle at $80 and the guitar at $60 (360 version). I'm pretty fucking certain about that bundle number since I just bought it two days ago. As far as I'm aware there's no game-only SKU for the 360 version.

 

[Parl]

They're using That Chartz Site as their source. I like their estimates, but they're not accurate with their NA estimates, so the European weekly numbers are pretty much pissing in the wind.

 

[Belgorim]

Best Buy currently lists the bundle at $80 and the guitar at $60 (360 version). I'm pretty fucking certain about that bundle number since I just bought it two days ago. As far as I'm aware there's no game-only SKU for the 360 version.

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000TGDHW8/?tag=neogaf0e-20

 

[Brak]

We see success as two complete opposites then

not knocking you

Obviously in absolute values the PS3 is doing poorly because of its low install base. But in terms of average sales per user it's doing about as well as the competition.

That's sorta the whole point of this thread.

 

[Evlar]

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000TGDHW8/?tag=neogaf0e-20

... which is individual re-sellers un-bundling the game from the guitar and selling each individually. It's not an independent SKU. Also, note the prices.

Or, to put it another way...

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000TK0G78/?tag=neogaf0e-20
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000O5X8XW/?tag=neogaf0e-20

 

[FrankT]

Actually, not. I just hope someone else will do this. Could be fun.

You know posting any sources from their is straight up ban-able by a many mod, right? There is a reason they're a crap source.

 

[DJ Sl4m]

Did the sales of Final Fantasy VII: Crisis Core bundled with the PSP "count"? Will they "count" toward S-E's bottom line? How about Star Wars Battlefront: Renegade Squadron? Does LucasArts consider that a free game?

I'm sure Sony & Sqeenix worked something out that was beneficial to both, but it's not the same as bundled (free) software with every console sold.

 

[DJ Sl4m]

Its still a free pack in game like Wii sports.

All free and/or bundled games should be thrown out the window, it's apples to oranges, At BEST.

 

[Belgorim]

... which is individual re-sellers un-bundling the game from the guitar and selling each individually. It's not an independent SKU. Also, note the prices.

Or, to put it another way...

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000TK0G78/?tag=neogaf0e-20
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000O5X8XW/?tag=neogaf0e-20

In that case I find it weird that it is also sold as game-only from the redoctane store.

http://www.redoctane.com/store.html

 

[Evlar]

In that case I find it weird that it is also sold as game-only from the redoctane store.

http://www.redoctane.com/store.html

Um. No it isn't?

http://www.redoctane.com/gh-xbox360.html

 

[lockload]

All publisher care about is how many units of software they sell they dont care if the 360 has been on the market longer that s a plus point for then ie more unit sales of a game

Just look at madden the 360 version outsold the PS2 version despite having 1/5 of the console numbers

 

[FrankT]

Um. No it isn't?

http://www.redoctane.com/gh-xbox360.html

What;

http://www.redoctane.com/guitarhero3gamexbox360.html

 

[Belgorim]

Um. No it isn't?

http://www.redoctane.com/gh-xbox360.html

wat?

http://www.redoctane.com/guitarhero3gamexbox360.html

 

[leehom]

Wait, so ps3 software sales are actually decent? buuuut some people on gaf told me ps3 software doesn't sell!! Is ******** a decent place for statistics?

 

[Evlar]

What;

http://www.redoctane.com/guitarhero3gamexbox360.html

... which is Guitar Hero 3.

 

[yukoner]

If the point of Tie Ratios is to see how many games the average Wii own has, why should Wii Sports not be counted? A Wii owner with Wii Sports would, theoretically, be less likely to buy another game then a Wii owner without Wii Sports. However, if the point of Tie Ratios is to see how many games the average Wii owner buys, then including Wii Sports would not be appropriate.

The point of Tie Ratios is to get some data on the potential of 3rd, and 1st party software SALES on a given system.

By including Wii Sports, and Wii Play, you create a totally false impression that a given game will sell as many units on Wii, as it will on 360 or PS3, relative to install base. And this is just plain wrong.

The most meaningful value of Tie Ratios, is to judge potential 3rd party support, which, when combined with install base, allows you to predict where that support is heading.

So, I think removing all 1st party titles would give a more meaningful number for what publishers are actually looking at when they decide which systems to support/target.

 

[Belgorim]

... which is Guitar Hero 3.

ah, if you are talking about GH2, they announced that there is a game-only version coming for GH2 along with the release of GH3.

 

[MaX_PL]

is this saying Wii owners buy more software than 360 owners?

i dont believe it.

 

[Evlar]

ah, if you are talking about GH2, they announced that there is a game-only version coming for GH2 along with the release of GH3.

That's cool, didn't know that.

 

[yukoner]

So, the battle for software sales, if the average rates continue, is whoever has the install base.

No, the numbers don't support that at all.

Do a comparison of 3rd party titles over the last 6 months, between 360 and Wii.

You'll see 360 outselling it probably 3:1, despite very similar install bases. Actually, with Madden and Bioshock in there, it would probably be more liek 10:1.

First party sales are pretty much irrelevant in the "Battle for Software Sales", since they will always be exclsuive to that platform. The only thing that can change is the 3rd party support, so that's what the "battle" is for.

 

[DJ Sl4m]

No, the numbers don't support that at all.

Do a comparison of 3rd party titles over the last 6 months, between 360 and Wii.

You'll see 360 outselling it probably 3:1, despite very similar install bases.

First party sales are pretty much irrelevant in the "Battle for Software Sales", since they will always be exclsuive to that platform. The only thing that can change is the 3rd party support, so that's what the "battle" is for.

Where are you getting your numbers for 3rd party sales comparisons ?

 

[Parl]

Wait, so ps3 software sales are actually decent? buuuut some people on gaf told me ps3 software doesn't sell!! Is ******** a decent place for statistics?

No, PS3 software sales suck. But it's not because PS3 owners aren't buying it, it's because there is not a single person in the whole of NA who owns a PS3.

 

[Parl]

No, the numbers don't support that at all.

Do a comparison of 3rd party titles over the last 6 months, between 360 and Wii.

You'll see 360 outselling it probably 3:1, despite very similar install bases. Actually, with Madden and Bioshock in there, it would probably be more liek 10:1.

First party sales are pretty much irrelevant in the "Battle for Software Sales", since they will always be exclsuive to that platform. The only thing that can change is the 3rd party support, so that's what the "battle" is for.

We don't have "the numbers". We have do have some numbers, but not enough unfortunately.

This isn't a 3rd party comparison. We can't compare them anyway. But obviously, 3rd party software sales are larger on 360 by far as is currently stands. MS also has a sizable chunk of 360 software sales with games like Halo 3, too; but not as large a percentage as Nintendo, but this is mainly due to Nintendo putting good titles for the market out so far, while third parties don't - simple as that.

First party sales are relevant because it's apart of how often the console owners buys games, and if 3rd parties are competitive, they will get some of those sales for themselves.

But yeah, the numbers so support it. Total ownership weeks divided by total software sold gives an average buy rate for the system's generation. This works slightly against 360, but not enough to make any one system have a substantially more active user-base. Therefore, if/when Wii sales comfortably pass 360 sales, average monthly software sales for Wii will be higher than 360's in US, if the buy rates of the consumers don't significantly change. If these buys rates do change a bit, unfavourably for Wii (despite SMG, Wii fit SSBB, etc) then we're just talking a month or two extra, really.

 

[yukoner]

Where are you getting your numbers for 3rd party sales comparisons ?

I look at the top sales for each platform when NPD is released each month. Nintendo's 3rd parties aren't selling shit.

 

[yukoner]

We don't have "the numbers". We have do have some numbers, but not enough unfortunately.

Yes we do, we have the Top selling 3rd party titles for each system, each month, and the Wii sales are the weakest BY FAR when compared to PS3 or 360.

You can pretend that situation doesn 't exist by saying we don't have all the numbers, but I gaurantee you publishers aren't going to bury their head in the sand like that.

It's obvious which platforms are the bread and butter for a high budget 3rd party title, and it sure as heck isn't the Wii.

Example:
Wii's highest selling 3rd party title in Aug was Madden 08. And it was outsold 9:1 by the Xbox 360, and 4:1 by the PS3.

 

[antoniogaud]

And this console has been out for two months and has a tie-ratio of 0.7 (because most people were still having fun with these games, but are now on the verge to purchase some games). Will a third party look at the tie-ratio of 0.7 and say "fuck, nobody is buying games for this. The future software sales potential of this system sucks" or would they say "that tie-ratios sucks, but people will want to buy more software after, so it's not like this tie-ratio is gonna stay low. It's gonna go up at a faster rate than a normal tie-ratio would because it's been set artificially low because of the bundled games. We may as well make a hypothetical estimate of what the actual ratio would be if the system came without bundles games, then we can use this estimated ratio as a part of our calculations for future projections of the system software sales".

I think software companies look at software sales first and foremost since those would automatically encompass tie-in ratios. You have too many unprovable assumptions in your tie-in theory to make it useful for business.

As an aside, anecdotal evidence seems to contradict the notion that PS3 owners buy as much software as X360 owners... It hasn't been my experience as a PS3 owner to do so. I have bought 18 games for Xbox, 3 for PS3 (resistance, motorstorm and VF5) and 7 for Wii.

MS also has a sizable chunk of 360 software sales with games like Halo 3, too; but not as large a percentage as Nintendo, but this is mainly due to Nintendo putting good titles for the market out so far, while third parties don't - simple as that.

Can't agree with that unless you only mean software on the Wii.

 

[Parl]

Yes we do, we have the Top selling 3rd party titles for each system, each month, and the Wii sales are the weakest BY FAR when compared to PS3 or 360.

We don't get total software sales, sorry. Nor do we get total third party software sales. However, it's unlikely Wii third party software sales are weaker than PS3's, mainly due to install base and Sony also being a key driver of PS3 software sales.[/quote]

You can pretend that situation doesn 't exist by saying we don't have all the numbers, but I gaurantee you publishers aren't going to bury their head in the sand like that.

It's obvious which platforms are the bread and butter for a high budget 3rd party title, and it sure as heck isn't the Wii.

I'm not. Wii third party sales are far lower than 360's. Why isn't it Wii specifically? In two years, which is how long it can take to develop a game (mainly longer in fact for big budget) Wii could very well have double the install compared to 360, and if Nintendo scale back like they did with DS, and if third parties compete better against Nintendo with better games like did on DS, third parties will have (random number) 75% of software sales against 90% on 360. That'd means that third parties are selling FAR more on Wii then. Factor in much lower development costs and you'd be insane to focus your develop primarily on 360 unless you're a specific kinda developer (world leader in graphically intensive games, for instance). That's all hypothetical, but I'm explaining a way in Wii could easily be the main platform for third parties based on its massive increases in hardware sales and the similar rate at which its owners buy games compared to competing platforms.

Example:
Wii's highest selling 3rd party title in Aug was Madden 08. And it was outsold 9:1 by the Xbox 360, and 4:1 by the PS3.

Your example doesn't support your point. It's Madden sales. What's that got to do with average monthly third party software sales. Do you know how much games sell that don't get in the top 10? You need to reach well over 100,000 sometimes to be in the top 10. DS titles rarely get in the top 10 in US, but its total software sales remain high based on tie-ratios.

Can't agree with that unless you only mean software on the Wii.

I mean Wii, of course. There are some good titles, IMO. But, I'm referring to titles that will sell - ie, not cheap ports with controls that don't work, etc. For Wii's popularity, it hasn't received good support as of yet because it caught third parties off guard.