Once it goes live, there's supposed to be a free trial available to combat this specifically.
Can you elaborate? Is this a free trial for existing FFXI/FFXIV subscribers specifically, or are you talking about the free month that comes with all MMOs with the initial purchase?
I prefer sub-based over F2P, but I question the viability of this given that the genre has been stagnant for a few years now. I don't know whether the FF fanbase will come through the way SE expects. Seems really, really dangerous for them to hedge their bets on XIV.