I disagree in regards to NA. Globally maybe.
I think the price will decide the outcome in NA/UK.
The PS3 had great sales at ludicrous price points. The problem is that the PS3 sold 0 units at $199 (excluding BF), while the Xbox 360 and the Wii sold truckloads at $199.
Sony lost the casual gamer, who tends to be fickle and price sensitive. However, PlayStation is still going strong among core gamers. After three generations, the baseline for PlayStation home consoles in the US market will be roughly 30 million units.
That said, Sony expects a marathon in NA/UK.
I think PS4 will break all the launch history records in terms of sales.
Biggest launch in PlayStation history. I expect a strong FY13.
However, I don't expect an exceptional FY14 because PS360 is too strong. PS360 HW shipments are close to 20M /year at high price points, they will have price cuts, cross gen games and FF,GTA,GT,Dark Souls,Castlevania... So, PS360 is still a great option for core gamers. Probably better than the PS2 in 2006 - 2007.
10-11 M in FY14 would be good numbers for the PS4. I think 18M in FY14 (like the PS2 in FY01) is a pipe dream.
is there a consensus as to why the 360 comfortably beat the ps3 in the US?
It was the perfect storm.
PS3 looked great before the E3 2006. American core gamers kept buying PS2 software and replacing their Fat PS2 with the Slim model, while the Xbox 360 had mediocre sales and billions in losses. Sony needed two models ($299 / $399) and a November launch in 2006 to dreamcast the Xbox 360.
1) The inclusion of Blu-ray increased the price (and losses) and destroyed the PS3 hype after E3 2006.
2) Brand loyalty is crucial outside the US (Sony basically created the PAL console market). America is different because there are several brands through the decades (Atari,Nintendo,Sega,PlayStation,Xbox).
3) Sony lost exclusivity for the Grand Theft Auto series.
4) Japanese exclusive games were crucial to the success of the PS1/PS2 in America. PlayStation built a global empire by leveraging its domestic market dominance.
Microsoft found an unexpected ally in Japan: the NDS and the weakness of the japanese third parties.
5) Sony's games did not sell well in America. Their target is the PAL market.
6) Xbox 360 has the better multiplats and Xbox Live.
7) Sony could not match Microsoft price cuts in 2008, when the PS3 was outselling the Xbox 360 in US/UK. The Blu-ray was a huge burden and , to make things worse, Sony was hit hard by the global financial crisis.
8) Kinect stopped the PS3 Slim comeback in 2010.
9) (2011 - 2013) -> Xbox 360 became very popular, so network effects created a bandwagon effect.
10) American media and video game forums were ruthless (PS3 has no games, PS3 chalkboard, year of the PS3...)
CNN Money :Sony's PS3 A Sinking Ship: Sales Plummet
WSJ Article: Hope Fades for PS3 as a Comeback Player