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[Minions]

This was the first online multiplayer generation where people were more invested in ecosystems and such. Leaving Xbox for PS4 and vice-versa is now like leaving iOS for Android. I think things that did not come into play in previous generation now do. Do I think PS4 will outsell the Xbox @ launch in the US? Maybe. But over the entire generation? No chance imo.

The main difference here is none of your "apps" transfer. This would be like upgrading to a new iphone with IOS 7, except all the applications you purchased previously no longer work. I don't see your "gamer profile" tieing you to a $100 more expensive console. Parents generally buy the cheapest console that is "acceptable". A kid may freak out if he gets a Wii-U; but will be happy with a PS4 or Xbox One.

If there was backwards compatibility this would be an entirely different ballgame. People could trade in their 360/PS3 to upgrade and still play all their same games. All I am saying is price makes a huge difference, and there are substantially less things tieing people down to a specific console this generation than there has ever been in the past.

 

[Glorified G]

Microsoft has already said they wont drop kinect as the install base is of the upmost importance, dont forget they want to sell kinect not only for X1 but other devices like PC's, in hospitals etc..they have vision for it.

I don't see having a separate sku conflict with this

 

[Wilbur]

And for good reason. No sport is as competitive as gaming. No piece of literature is as throught provoking or well written. The best aspects of music and film are integrated and actually elevated in the gaming medium. Standard controller games are the last non-VR entertainment bastion. The final frontier.

 

[Parmenides]

I disagree in regards to NA. Globally maybe.

I think the price will decide the outcome in NA/UK.

The PS3 had great sales at ludicrous price points. The problem is that the PS3 sold 0 units at $199 (excluding BF), while the Xbox 360 and the Wii sold truckloads at $199.

Sony lost the casual gamer, who tends to be fickle and price sensitive. However, PlayStation is still going strong among core gamers. After three generations, the baseline for PlayStation home consoles in the US market will be roughly 30 million units.

That said, Sony expects a marathon in NA/UK.

I think PS4 will break all the launch history records in terms of sales.

Biggest launch in PlayStation history. I expect a strong FY13.

However, I don't expect an exceptional FY14 because PS360 is too strong. PS360 HW shipments are close to 20M /year at high price points, they will have price cuts, cross gen games and FF,GTA,GT,Dark Souls,Castlevania... So, PS360 is still a great option for core gamers. Probably better than the PS2 in 2006 - 2007.

10-11 M in FY14 would be good numbers for the PS4. I think 18M in FY14 (like the PS2 in FY01) is a pipe dream.

is there a consensus as to why the 360 comfortably beat the ps3 in the US?

It was the perfect storm.

PS3 looked great before the E3 2006. American core gamers kept buying PS2 software and replacing their Fat PS2 with the Slim model, while the Xbox 360 had mediocre sales and billions in losses. Sony needed two models ($299 / $399) and a November launch in 2006 to dreamcast the Xbox 360.

1) The inclusion of Blu-ray increased the price (and losses) and destroyed the PS3 hype after E3 2006.

2) Brand loyalty is crucial outside the US (Sony basically created the PAL console market). America is different because there are several brands through the decades (Atari,Nintendo,Sega,PlayStation,Xbox).

3) Sony lost exclusivity for the Grand Theft Auto series.

4) Japanese exclusive games were crucial to the success of the PS1/PS2 in America. PlayStation built a global empire by leveraging its domestic market dominance.

Microsoft found an unexpected ally in Japan: the NDS and the weakness of the japanese third parties.

5) Sony's games did not sell well in America. Their target is the PAL market.

6) Xbox 360 has the better multiplats and Xbox Live.

7) Sony could not match Microsoft price cuts in 2008, when the PS3 was outselling the Xbox 360 in US/UK. The Blu-ray was a huge burden and , to make things worse, Sony was hit hard by the global financial crisis.

8) Kinect stopped the PS3 Slim comeback in 2010.

9) (2011 - 2013) -> Xbox 360 became very popular, so network effects created a bandwagon effect.

10) American media and video game forums were ruthless (PS3 has no games, PS3 chalkboard, year of the PS3...)


CNN Money :Sony's PS3 A Sinking Ship: Sales Plummet

WSJ Article: Hope Fades for PS3 as a Comeback Player

 

[Loakum]

actually I haven't heard of the Xbox One having a million pre orders. But I did hear the PS4 having over 2 million pre orders already. I don't know where Pachter got his numbers.

 

[LAA]

Ha ha, but I thought Pachter said the likes of Skype and etc. would win next gen.... Ha ha.

But yeah, his opinion is pretty worthless to me anyway and I personally don't see much credibility in what he says most of the time anyway.

 

[CadetMahoney]

actually I haven't heard of the Xbox One having a million pre orders. But I did hear the PS4 having over 2 million pre orders already. I don't know where Pachter got his numbers.

It's impossible for xbone to come close to the sales of PS4 in North America alone if you ask me.

 

[Sub_Level]

Read a book.

Last novel I read was Jane Eyre. Truly juvenile piece and just another shining example of appeasing female adolescent fantasies in favor of a more inclusive and interesting direction for the narrative to take. The reread value is also terrible, and unlike games, books don't reward me with trophies and achievements to reinforce interest and set cognitive goal posts for me to conquer.

 

[TetraGenesis]

Last novel I read was Jane Eyre. Truly juvenile piece and just another shining example of appeasing female adolescent fantasies in favor of a more inclusive and interesting direction for the narrative to take. The reread value is also terrible, and unlike games, books don't reward me with trophies and achievements to reinforce interest and set cognitive goal posts for me to conquer.

robertdeniro-you.gif

 

[Radec]

So the PS4 will bomb now..

GODDAMIT PACHTER!

 

[ChilliWave]

damn the ps4 just got pach-attacked

 

[Mobius and pet octopus]

Last novel I read was Jane Eyre. Truly juvenile piece and just another shining example of appeasing female adolescent fantasies in favor of a more inclusive and interesting direction for the narrative to take. The reread value is also terrible, and unlike games, books don't reward me with trophies and achievements to reinforce interest and set cognitive goal posts for me to conquer.

I read that in freshman year of high school... I remember that fact because it sucked up so much time of my summer. Good books actually get better the second read.

 

[Anticitizen One]

jeez what happened to this thread?

 

[kyser73]

I think the price will decide the outcome in NA/UK.

<snip>

Pretty much all of this post.

NA/UK are the prizes for Sony this time around. The UK especially since their marketing for the PS1 was what really started to break gaming out of it's perception niche (roach card flyers at Glastonbury, WipEout & Tekken in Ministry of Sound, dance fesitvals and so on) and set it on the road to mainstream acceptance.

 

[lifeexpectancy]

Microsoft's "extra curricular" setup for XB1 extends far beyond Kinect.

They have literally created a console which if setup right, will be turned on for every waking second that the TV is on.

You want to watch a movie (digital or disc)? Let XB1 handle it.

You want to stream some music to your home theatre setup? Let XB1 handle it.

You want to want to watch actual television? Let XB1 handle it.

You want to voice/video chat with a friend? Let XB1 handle it.

You want to surf the web (or just make a quick query)? Let XB1 handle it.

You want to turn on your entire home theatre setup with one button/voice command (or can't fid the remote)? Let XB1 handle it.

Want to use "smart TV" apps like youtube etc? Let XB1 handle it. There's going to be an entire app store there with many implied tie ins to the Windows app store.

Bored of what's on TV and want to play some games? Let XB1 insta-resume your last played game or launch right into a different one.

Bored of the game you're playing and want to watch some TV now? Let XB1 handle it. Start watching your TV through XB1.


You want to do many of those things above at the same time? Let XB1 handle it. Snap apps, blaah blaaah blaaah.


There is almost no common situation involving use of a television that would require you to switch away from your XB1s HDMI output, let alone turn the thing off.

That's a pretty big deal and if MS can streamline the experience to the point where it just feels natural to have the XB1 operating in the background and have something as convenient as being able to ask your tv to tell you what time your favourite program starts or to ask it to immediately auto-resume your last played game......

What kind of company would not prioritise putting their stuff on your console (games/apps/whatever) if you can almost guarantee that your box/operating system will be available to the end user ever second their television is showing a picture?


/optimism

If they don't mess that kind of opportunity up, I think it can be more important than anybody seems to want to consider.

What did I just read? It's like those PR baffoons from MS are pulling your strings or something man. I mean if that's honestly the way you feel, the way you see it, then kudos and I hope your vision for the future comes to fruition (for you anyway, I want none of it), but I think you're going to be disappointed. I'm not trying to attack you, believe me, I just honestly think it was a bad move on their part.

There is almost no conceivable scenario I can see that makes sense in having the XB1 on at all times every time the TV is on. If I'm not watching Netflix or playing a game, my system is not on, period. There is absolutely no reason to route your TV through the XB1 when you still have to have the cable box turned on. At that point you're running two electronic devices when one would suffice.

And unlike the Twitter generation, my attention span isn't so short that I have to switch back and forth between TV and a video game every 5 minutes. I usually do things in 2-hour increments or more, and that's enough time to shut off the Xbox and power it back up when I want to game again.

Unless the HDMI pass-through can be used passively with the system powered completely off and unplugged, I won't be using it. There's a reason why countries like Germany have power leech/vampire laws. If the system stays on even in an ultra-low-power-usage state in order to use the HDMI pass-through then it's costing me extra $$ for no reason.

I'm fully capable of just switching one of the two (yes, only two) HDMI inputs on my 7-year-old Panasonic plasma TV when I want to switch consoles. As it is that won't be necessary because I'll be gaming on my 360 and PS4 primarily and only using the XB1 when there's the occasional console exclusive I just HAVE to play. And the PS4 will be my app console, since I can use them without a bloody paywall.

MS's vision for making this thing the end-all-be-all of the entertainment center was ridiculous. A gaming-centric box with entertainment apps as an added bonus was fine. Pushing the console as app/snap/swap/switch/hdmi passthrough/multimedia/razzmatazz first and video games second was a mistake in my opinion, and I hope it's proven over the next 10 years.

 

[SaucyJack]

Gotta love Pachter, the entire world "knows" that the PS4 will outsell the XB1 at launch and he is now making this a prediction.

No wonder his prediction hit rate is borderline respectable despite some of the guff he comes out with!