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So the Xbox One launches today in Japan...
- Thread starter chubigans
- Start date
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
I wouldn't be so quick to assume those games aren't making their way to Xbone.
We all thought a major third party going (timed) exclusive was an impossibility given how far behind they are but MS opened the chequebook (TR). If anything, I'd argue Japanese devs are more susceptible to this sort of practice but whether MS thinks it's worth it who knows.
Angelus Errare
Banned
Poor MS. How'd the coveted Day One editions do?
Having such a good time with the Xbox so far. Decided to upgrade my TV today as well.
Nice umbrellas.
Having such a good time with the Xbox so far. Decided to upgrade my TV today as well.
Transparent umbrellas, yo that's Japan alright!
Everything I know about Japan is from Persona
Enjoy your console, my friend!
Nightengale
Member
I wouldn't either, but generally PR for these kind of statements come out within a week of the platform announcements. ( like Bladestorm being announced for XB1 as well )
I mean, none of these games are ever confirmed to be permanent exclusive, but if MS/they continue to not say anything over the next week or so, we can easily assume that it will be exclusive long enough that it's practically perma-exclusive.
Thanks! Yeah, I've got quite the collection going at the moment.
Katana_Strikes
Member
This looks like one of those things where people actively walk across to the other side of the street to avoid people selling them something or surveys.
I'd argue MS already attempted that practice at the beginning of the Xbox 360 cycle and the devs felt it wasn't worth it and don't want to get burned harder this time.
Of course there's every chance they could release on Xbox One, but they have to be confident that it's not just burning money, WiiU third party sales show there is a threshold where it becomes pointless to port.
Because it wasn't selling and software sales were low?
People think they were really trying in 2009, they got a couple good games, a lot of small wasteful games, but still had the marketing issues they had before, so know one either knew, or people interested in the console did not get enough information. Not to mention the more expensive PS3 was still kicking its ass the whole time, and Wii became some kind of superstar really really quickly.
Of course they gave up in 2009. Technically, they really gave up in 2008 honestly. I would go as far as to say they have a better chance in this climate than they did last gen.
Was at a big Aeon mall in Kyoto earlier this week, went into a large random electronic store there and there was a fair bit of Xbox products actually, I thought it would be far less:
I think that's where Microsoft spend all the marketing budget instead of, you know, making sure people knew it was coming out on the 4th, and maybe, maybe, advertised some games.
But the shelf space strategy could work, I mean, they failed to do that with the 360 and it was pushed to a small wall near the fire escape.
As for multiplat games between PS360, some devs have released them for both consoles in Western market while keeping them exclusive on PS3 in Japanese market.
IIRC it was Kojima who addressed how hard it is to make financial sense to release Japanese Xbox version of the software, even if they have a copy ready.
IIRC it was Kojima who addressed how hard it is to make financial sense to release Japanese Xbox version of the software, even if they have a copy ready.
Nightengale
Member
Practically nothing good came out of any partnerships/timed-exclusivity with Xbox when it came to the 3rd-party devs. Star Ocean bombed with such negative reception that even the PS3 version bombed. Tales bombed. SE's partnerships here and there bombed. Mistwalker deals bombed.
They don't have a better chance this climate because frankly, no one has any opportunity at all. The Japanese console gaming scene is practically living on tethers. No one's willing to take any major risk unless it's on 3DS/mobile, and we're seeing devs capitalise further and further on established IPs in the console space. Just look at Sony's pre-E3 announcement. While it was a good show, it was also a predictable show. The same kind of games we saw on the PS3/Vita, coming from the usual batch of devs, and the same names and IPs in the industry.
Which was why I laughed whenever Mistwalker is brought up as a conversation point when it came to consoles. ( prior to Tera Battle announcement )
There is no more chance. Devs are consolidated, very few independent studios in Japan are left with the ability and resources to scale up into full-blown console development. Not unless MS is willing to invest 10x more than what they invested for the 360, and open up multiple studios in Japan itself with the best talents.
I think that MS could become much more succesfull in Asia, if they got some asian 1st party studios focusing on making games for that market. Instead of only relying on the asian third parties there. :-/
It would probably take a few years for new eventual new asian MS-studios to become profitable, but they'd get a much better/varied game-portofolio.
Especially this generation is the time to try - concidering how easy it is porting to PC, MS wouldn't only even have to rely on the asian Xbox One market.
They could also put out the game on PC a month or two later. :-/
I think Sony would probably have alot less attractive console-platform for us western customers, aswell, if they didn't have the SCEA- and SCEE-studios in the west, making games targeted towards us.
If they only had the SCEJ-games, and one or two bought AAA-exclusives each year, I think we would be much colder towards the platform.
Vita is kind of like this on a smaller scale. :-/
If it weren't for the indies, the platform would not be worth having for westerns - unless you like the asian games. Then it would be too few games on a regular basis.
It would probably take a few years for new eventual new asian MS-studios to become profitable, but they'd get a much better/varied game-portofolio.
Especially this generation is the time to try - concidering how easy it is porting to PC, MS wouldn't only even have to rely on the asian Xbox One market.
They could also put out the game on PC a month or two later. :-/
I think Sony would probably have alot less attractive console-platform for us western customers, aswell, if they didn't have the SCEA- and SCEE-studios in the west, making games targeted towards us.
If they only had the SCEJ-games, and one or two bought AAA-exclusives each year, I think we would be much colder towards the platform.
Vita is kind of like this on a smaller scale. :-/
If it weren't for the indies, the platform would not be worth having for westerns - unless you like the asian games. Then it would be too few games on a regular basis.
Was at a big Aeon mall in Kyoto earlier this week, went into a large random electronic store there and there was a fair bit of Xbox products actually, I thought it would be far less:
It's pretty crazy that shelf space for the Wii U was dropped so fast in the West (or even barely created in the first place), but in Japan the 360, after so many years, still have that much shelf space. I'm sure it differs per store, but it's still amazing to see so much space given to a dead console in Japan.
The likelihood that Disgaea is coming to Xbox One is zero.
Nightengale
Member
Wrong. With the exception of Japan, the most popular games around the SEA regions are the same exact games western gamers love. CoD, GTA, AssCreed, FIFA, etc. The difference is that we're also highly receptive to games that are more Japanese-oriented, like Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, etc.
It would probably take a few years for new eventual new asian MS-studios to become profitable, but they'd get a much better/varied game-portofolio.
Asia as a whole in at an infancy when it comes to competitive development of AAA console games. You'll know this if you played Korean or Chinese developed games. There's some gems, and they can do visually impressive games, but a lot of them are janky and comes nowhere close to the most polished games from Japanese/western publishers.
To do well in the Asian PC-scene, you need to localise the games in English. Chinese alone won't work, because a large part of SEA's gaming community plays their PC games in English, not Chinese.
So what you're saying is that MS, in chasing after the small Asian market, should damage the competitiveness of their exclusives by making them for PC too?
It's good that Sony isn't stupid then and making business/game development choices that appeal to all audiences, instead of doing something stupid like only making Japanese games and buying timed exclusivity of third party games.
bigbaldwolf86
Banned
I'll add to this by saying that Persona 5 has a slim chance of crossing over as well.
30 pages. Yikes. So. I wonder if it sold a dozen. Maybe even two dozen. I don't want to get too optimistic, though.
Playstation has such a huge presence there. And I've heard so little about this Japan launch. Admittedly, they're probably just advertising in... you know... Japan... but still.
Huh? Isn't the PS4 struggling and the Wii U in first place? Gotta say launching early in that country was the smartest move Nintendo did so far this gen.
They have a better chance because there are no competition and Microsoft is not just grabbing niche games, and rushed next gen games that bomb, or spending money for partner ships with no marketing, with the competition, even early PS3, kicking their butts with more highy received (japanese) games, the Wii pulling in pretty much the rest of whatever audience was left.
Does that mean they will win? Maybe, maybe not, but they have a better chance of keeping up at least. I can see wii U and Ps4 falling to the 1k easily around 2016 at the current pacing. It could be a sales comparison such as: Xbox One: 2 million, PS4: 4.5 Million, Wii U: 7 million. The fact those numbers are not to crazy just shows how bad it currently is over there and how no consoles are moving. When everything is static, that's probably the best chance.
Nightengale
Member
PS4 is struggling because it has no games. WiiU is doing less than satisfactory for a console that has already launched several system seller class games. (3D World, Mario Kart) but it should do better in coming months, etc as Smash and the 2015 games come rolling.
In the end, it's all about the games. Some would argue that PS4 would had been better served if it launched in 2015, ( since all the key Japanese titles only start appearing from 2015 onwards ), but that's just one perspective, because it's debatable that by launching early, Sony establishes an early 600k+ install base without any real effort at all, at the cost of poor weekly sales for the rest of the year.
I can't formulate a proper sentence to respond to you about what I think about your prediction...
Let's just talk about this again in 2-3 weeks, once XB1 numbers come in, and we'll revisit your 2 million estimation.
Northeastmonk
Gold Member
I wish our gaming stores looked that good. Ours have awful signs with goofy characters announcing it's the video game isle or we have to stare at a large Skylanders box. Those shelves look like a very nice software isle. I don't know why America has to dumb it down so much.
This is ours for every console:
It's so flat and boring. All they do is pile everything else in a giant bin and mark down the price.
The 360 section is probably unsold stock from 2011. Most stories and pictures I see have 360 games in racks and side walls in the back or near an emergency exit.
Remember when the 360 numbers came in and were less than the Xbox 1 numbers? Didn't stop 360 from selling more. Plus, as I said. regardless, I think all 3 will be relatively close together due to neither actually moving much. That was my point of sayign it has a better chance than last time.
As for your PS3 debate, an early 600k install bases does not really matter if it takes 2 years to make it to 750k. Like I said Nintendos head start was probably the one smart thing they did.
There is no possible chance that your estimate is based in reality.
That is actually a crazy number, right there. You're thinking that the Xbox One will do better in Japan than the Xbox 360 did?
Nightengale
Member
Like I said, we'll talk later. As far as I'm concerned right now, I don't feel like I'm talking to someone with their head on the ground when it comes to Japan.
Sorry if that sounds rude.
PolarGamer
Member
One of the first things I went looking for in Japan was transparent rain gear. Because Blade Runner and Tokyo.
It's the same in my mind.
Yeah... I'm thinking 700k-1m MAYBE lifetime.
Those are crazy numbers though. OG Xbox and 360 barely reached 2 million together. Why would Xbox One sell as much as them when it remains to be seen what MS will do with Xbox One in Japan. Also Wii U isnt lighting the world on fire to reach 7.5, To be clear Wii U is at 1.9 million after roughly 90 weeks on the market, say Wii U gets another 3 years they'd have to sell 37k a week on average. Reminder sake they sold 19k during Mario Kart release and most weeks they at over under 10k
Zatoichi's Cane
Member
You are not being realistic.
CouchMaster
Member
So do we have a day 1 number yet?
The only number that is concievable is the PS4 one, even then we're assuming that the general influx of PS4 games coming out next year stops going into the year after and they do bugger all for hardware sales in the grand scheme of things.
I'm not seeing anything to suggest that the XBONE will surpass Xbox 360 when the Xbox 360 had RPG's from Mistwalker, Namco, Tri Ace and Square Enix.
With Nintendo, I can't see them releasing Mario Kart every year, but they are funding games that wouldn't have existed like Bsyonetta and they're leasing out their IP like Hyrule Warriors, so who knows on that front, but I feel 7 million is really optimistic.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I think PS4 will sell 8 million. Xbox 1 750k.
Nightengale
Member
It's hard to see any scenario where console sales don't contract significantly (more than 15%) from their previous heights. It's unfortunate, but that's the reality of the scene today.
However, I'm not all that pessimistic despite that high likelihood. I just want software sales to do well, despite a (potentially) smaller install base.
We've seen Vita software sales do excellent numbers despite the significantly smaller install base, and it'd be good if that trend continues to a point where publishers could look past the so-called 'smaller base of dedicated hardware'' and acknowledge the strengths/weaknesses of said smaller base instead of shrugging them off.
However, I'm not all that pessimistic despite that high likelihood. I just want software sales to do well, despite a (potentially) smaller install base.
We've seen Vita software sales do excellent numbers despite the significantly smaller install base, and it'd be good if that trend continues to a point where publishers could look past the so-called 'smaller base of dedicated hardware'' and acknowledge the strengths/weaknesses of said smaller base instead of shrugging them off.
That was just stated as an example.
Or you can view those numbers I listed above as examples instead of serious estimates. The whole point was that all the consoles are going to be moving slowly.
Holographix
Banned
I don't think they'll even release numbers or make a PR statement.
I'm going to guess day one numbers are in the ballpark of 5k-9k.
Dreamgazer
Member
You believe that Wii U and PS4 numbers will fall to 1K/week "easily" around 2016 (assuming same for XB1), and yet XB1/PS4/WiiU will break 2M/4.5M/7M by the end of this gen?
Your projection would need some ridiculous sales in 2015.
Not to mention that even if we don't account for your ridiculous sales projection, Wii U will still need to more than double its weekly sales to even hit 7M in the next 3 or so years.
Nightengale
Member
We have insufficient information to deduce how slow it will be once there's a healthy availability of games.
Vita and 3DS were also doing worse off than they do now at one point of their life. Games made the difference.
CouchMaster
Member
Not from MS of course, but from Famitsu/Media Create etc.
The whole point was consoles were selling slow and I used those low numbers as an example. Even if one would say those numbers are too high, if they were reality they would still be abysmally low. What you are saying is basically proving my point, they may even sell less!
Honestly this may be the last stand for consoles over there unless there is a big change. After this gen at most they might get a 400,000 niche or something.
Dreamgazer
Member
First of all, your "example" is poor.
If your "whole point was consoles were selling slow", then stating Wii U will hit 7M only undermines the entire purpose of your example and confuses the reader.
Second, you haven't actually given an "example" as to how consoles were actually selling low or how sales are going to be close. What you did was that you made an "assumption" that competition will be lacking and that the sales difference between each console is going to be close. You then gave an example based on that assumption being correct.
This is a classic case of "let's assume my assumption is correct."
I suspect all of this was done so that you can argue for your earlier assumption that "xbox may have a better chance this time." However, you just undermined that by saying "if they were reality they would still be abysmally low"
How did I undermine anything?
The whole point is about abysmal low sales, how would that undermine Xbox having a better chance in comparison?
You got what? 1.6 million Xbox 360's, 10 million PS3's, and what 14 million Wiis? (may be wrong with the wii number?
Compare to say (for example) 1 million Xbox Ones, 4 million PS4's and say 6 million Wii us in most likely the best case?
That looks much better than a 9-13 million sales gap. It wouldn't look as bad, and more devs would probably support the Xbox One because of that. It would be in a much better position than the 360 ever would have been.
Now of course, I am also no going to leave out the possibility that Xbox One could indeed reach a very strong low early and pretty much be the worst selling consoles.
Smiles and Cries
Member
That is a lot of green, how much do you have to pay a store to get them to turn the whole stores branding over like that?
that is damn good advertising power right there
that is damn good advertising power right there
Caayn
Member
Congrats on both the console and the TV. I must say that a console could not wish for a better airflow, air from all sides even though there's no intake on the bottom of the console.Having such a good time with the Xbox so far. Decided to upgrade my TV today as well.
I was also given this small fan while strolling through Akiba earlier.
How is the console with Japanese voice commands?