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(Software) August 2008 NPD Predictions - Maddenoliday is here

J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
We're predicting for five games that JoshuaJSlone/donny2112 are reasonably sure will be in the Top 10.

Games/Format:

[360 Madden 09]
[PS2 Madden 09]
[PS3 Madden 09]
[WII Wii Fit]
[360 Too Human]
[Total SW $ in millions]

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Friday, September 5th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

Code: 
Good                       Bad
[360 Madden 09] 1200K       [360 Madden 09] 1200 thousand
[360 Madden 09] 1,200,000    [360 Madden 09] 1.200.000
[360 Madden 09] 1200000     [360 Madden 09] - 1,200,000
The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

NPD Coverage: August 3 - August 30 (4 weeks, July was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: September 11th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Code: 
                              Jun 2008   Jul 2008

[Total SW $ in millions]          $873       $591

Days available in tracking period (new releases):
360/PS2/PS3 Madden 09 - 19 days
360 Too Human - 12 days
 
[360 Madden 09] 1000k
[PS2 Madden 09] 510k
[PS3 Madden 09] 500k
[WII Wii Fit] 350k
[360 Too Human] 330k
[Total SW $ in millions] 720
 
[360 Madden 09]897k
[PS2 Madden 09]654k
[PS3 Madden 09]447k
[WII Wii Fit]342k
[360 Too Human]228k
[Total SW $ in millions] 725
 
Questions:

1) What is the single highest opening-month total for a Madden game ever, on any platform?

2) What is the single highest opening month total for a Madden game on a Nintendo system?
 
[360 Madden 09] 925k
[PS2 Madden 09] 615k
[PS3 Madden 09] 450k
[WII Wii Fit] 245k
[360 Too Human] 215k
[Total SW $ in millions] 715k
 
Opiate said:
Questions:

1) What is the single highest opening-month total for a Madden game ever, on any platform?

2) What is the single highest opening month total for a Madden game on a Nintendo system?
Click to expand...

1) overall, madden 07 across the PS2/GC/Xbox/360 at 1.8 mil overall

2) probably N64 days.
 
I am not sure that Too Human are going to be in the Top 10. Perhaps it is better if we switch that game to other, more probable game, such as Wii Play ?
 
[360 Madden 09] 860k
[PS2 Madden 09] 390k
[PS3 Madden 09] 620k
[WII Wii Fit] 250k
[360 Too Human] 180k
[Total SW $ in millions] 720k
 
[360 Madden 09] 670k
[PS2 Madden 09] 400k
[PS3 Madden 09] 320k
[WII Wii Fit] 160k
[360 Too Human] 210k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700k
 
[360 Madden 09] 983k
[PS2 Madden 09] 450k
[PS3 Madden 09] 654k
[WII Wii Fit] 223k
[360 Too Human] 185k
[Total SW $ in millions] 759k
 
apujanata said:
I am not sure that Too Human are going to be in the Top 10. Perhaps it is better if we switch that game to other, more probable game, such as Wii Play ?
Click to expand...

Wii Play is such a boring choice, since it follows the Wii hardware sales.

But what other five games will squeeze out TH? From last month there's Guitar Hero: On Tour, Mario Kart, and maybe Rock Band. But the NCAAs, SCs and CivRev will be out this month. So were there two other high-profile releases in August? The Tiger Woods games regularly debut at less than 100k. I guess one other Madden has a chance (like Madden Wii). But all things considered, Too Human should be a good bet for top ten (bad reviews be damned).
 
SIP YEK NOD said:
1) overall, madden 07 across the PS2/GC/Xbox/360 at 1.8 mil overall
Click to expand...

That's contradicted by the totals for last year's Madden posted by Brakara. If you're referring to opening week, then, yes, as the 07 version was released in the last week of the NPD month.

Brakara said:
Madden sales last year:
Click to expand...

Last year's Madden didn't have a Collector's Edition whereas the 20th Anniversary Edition is this year. NPD will probably combine the totals per platform for the two when reporting its public numbers, so it'll probably be higher for those platforms.

Thanks for posting the thread, JoshuaJSlone! :)
 
[360 Madden 09] 912k
[PS2 Madden 09] 310k
[PS3 Madden 09] 710k
[WII Wii Fit] 235k
[360 Too Human] 138k
[Total SW $ in millions] 712
 
[360 Madden 09] 870K
[PS2 Madden 09] 390K
[PS3 Madden 09] 640K
[WII Wii Fit] 290K
[360 Too Human] 145K
[Total SW $ in millions] 790K
 
[360 Madden 09] 1000k
[PS2 Madden 09] 490k
[PS3 Madden 09] 547k
[WII Wii Fit] 310k
[360 Too Human] 230k
[Total SW $ in millions] $800
 
[360 Madden 09] 950k
[PS2 Madden 09] 350k
[PS3 Madden 09] 650k
[WII Wii Fit] 250k
[360 Too Human] 150k
[Total SW $ in millions] 625
 
i highly doubt that the ps3 version of madden will outsell the ps3 version. if it does,it wont be as wide a margin as some of you have it as.
 
[360 Madden 09]725k
[PS2 Madden 09]450k
[PS3 Madden 09]450k
[WII Wii Fit]250k
[360 Too Human]225k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700
 
[360 Madden 09] 920K
[PS2 Madden 09] 450K
[PS3 Madden 09] 330K
[WII Wii Fit] 350K
[360 Too Human] 300K
[Total SW $ in millions] 800K
 
apujanata said:
I am not sure that Too Human are going to be in the Top 10. Perhaps it is better if we switch that game to other, more probable game, such as Wii Play ?
Click to expand...
donny2112 left it to me to pick the couple non-Madden games. I know Too Human is a bit of a risk, but I thought it would be a more entertaining pick than another returning Wii game. Hopefully a Too Human number will show up anyway if it doesn't make the top ten.
 
[360 Madden 09] 1,221K
[PS2 Madden 09] 500K
[PS3 Madden 09] 650K
[WII Wii Fit] 350K
[360 Too Human] 225K
[Total SW $ in millions] 680
 
[360 Madden 09] 990K
[PS2 Madden 09] 350K
[PS3 Madden 09] 600K
[WII Wii Fit] 340K
[360 Too Human] 200K
[Total SW $ in millions] 600
 
[360 Madden 09] 900k
[PS2 Madden 09] 200k
[PS3 Madden 09] 600k
[WII Wii Fit] 320k
[360 Too Human] 180k
[Total SW $ in millions] 800k
 
[360 Madden 09] 995k
[PS2 Madden 09] 445k
[PS3 Madden 09] 580k
[WII Wii Fit] 310k
[360 Too Human] 320k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700

edit - typo on wii fit
 
[360 Madden 09] 850K
[PS2 Madden 09] 312K
[PS3 Madden 09] 615K
[WII Wii Fit] 294K
[360 Too Human] 356K
[Total SW $ in millions] 710

And :lol :lol :lol at the people expecting Ps2 madden to outsell Ps3 madden this year. Guess they didn't see NCAA sales last month.
 
[360 Madden 09] 950k
[PS2 Madden 09] 400k
[PS3 Madden 09] 480k
[WII Wii Fit] 240k
[360 Too Human] 170k
[Total SW $ in millions] 715
 
Does this include the special editions of Madden?

Just so you know, EEDAR can give you guys a list of 8 games every month that will be in the top 10 for unit sales. We can also give a high rate of certainty on that (We have not been wrong to date).
 
[360 Madden 09]1000k
[PS2 Madden 09]400k
[PS3 Madden 09]545k
[WII Wii Fit]280k
[360 Too Human]230k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700
 
[360 Madden 09] 1090k
[PS2 Madden 09] 410k
[PS3 Madden 09] 610k
[WII Wii Fit] 275k
[360 Too Human] 190k
[Total SW $ in millions 880
 
Jesse2040 said:
Does this include the special editions of Madden?
Click to expand...

It'll be whatever numbers NPD releases, but they'll probably combine them, yes.

Jesse2040 said:
Just so you know, EEDAR can give you guys a list of 8 games every month that will be in the top 10 for unit sales. We can also give a high rate of certainty on that (We have not been wrong to date).
Click to expand...

I may pick you up on that come November/December. Those months are crazy as to knowing for sure which games will be in the Top 10, since everything (including catalog titles) sell so well.
 
Jesse2040 said:
Does this include the special editions of Madden?

Just so you know, EEDAR can give you guys a list of 8 games every month that will be in the top 10 for unit sales. We can also give a high rate of certainty on that (We have not been wrong to date).
Click to expand...

So, do you think Too Human will show up on Top 10 this month ?
 
[360 Madden 09] 900k
[PS2 Madden 09] 550k
[PS3 Madden 09] 600k
[WII Wii Fit] 290k
[360 Too Human] 200k
[Total SW $ in millions] 800
 
[360 Madden 09] 875k
[PS2 Madden 09] 385k
[PS3 Madden 09] 635k
[WII Wii Fit] 275k
[360 Too Human] 325k
[Total SW $ in millions] 825k
 
DiddyBop said:
i highly doubt that the ps3 version of madden will outsell the ps3 version. if it does,it wont be as wide a margin as some of you have it as.
Click to expand...

loser.JPG
 
[360 Madden 09] 900k
[PS2 Madden 09] 400k
[PS3 Madden 09] 550k
[WII Wii Fit] 300k
[360 Too Human] 250k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700
 
[360 Madden 09] 900k
[PS2 Madden 09] 350k
[PS3 Madden 09] 710k
[WII Wii Fit] 320k
[360 Too Human] 210k
[Total SW $ in millions] 720
 
[360 Madden 09] 950k
[PS2 Madden 09] 350k
[PS3 Madden 09] 550k
[WII Wii Fit] 300k
[360 Too Human] 200k
[Total SW $ in millions] 800
 
Wouldn't Guitar Hero: On tour be a safe bet for top 10? Judging from European sales where GH isn't a big hit, this title has performed strongly.
 
[360 Madden 09] 1,121,800
[PS2 Madden 09] 416,200
[PS3 Madden 09] 523,100
[WII Wii Fit] 302,000
[360 Too Human] 264,200
[Total SW $ in millions] 621
 
[360 Madden 09] 970k
[PS2 Madden 09] 350k
[PS3 Madden 09] 500k
[WII Wii Fit] 300k
[360 Too Human] 240k
[Total SW $ in millions] 750
 
[360 Madden 09] 984k
[PS2 Madden 09] 391k
[PS3 Madden 09] 548k
[WII Wii Fit] 298k
[360 Too Human] 175k
[Total SW $ in millions] 601
 
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