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Sony expects 5 million PS4s shipped by March 2014. What might the PS4+XB1 look like?
- Thread starter w1gglyjones
- Start date
w1gglyjones
Member
What do you think a forecast is?
JimmyRustler
Gold Member
What? GTAV just made 800 Million Dollar revenue in one day....
Graphics Horse
Member
I wonder how Sony expect 5 million to be distributed.
2mn Americas
2.5mn Europe+Kangaroo land.
400k Asia
100k Japan.
2mn Americas
2.5mn Europe+Kangaroo land.
400k Asia
100k Japan.
w1gglyjones
Member
Overall sales are down. The market is mainly dominated by the bigger titles and by larger advertising budgets.
kangaroo land, lmao
plus, Japan should be higher, I think.
For reference, these are Japan week 1 numbers from other consoles. They'd have about 5 weeks in Japan before the end of this FY.
Canis lupus
Member
I expect closer to 6m shipped. The console will be obviously supply constrained for many months.
PdotMichael
Banned
This would mean the Xbox One would sell significantly better in the USA and UK for example. I can't see it.
People forgetting that the PS4 will be released on way more markets than the Xbox One.
PS4's are still available on amazon (Germany).
Good bundles are sold out though. (two controllers + KZ for extra 99)
JimmyRustler
Gold Member
How is that not natural when the market is flooded with all kinds of games after 7 years?
To be fair, Wii U had a fantastic launch. It's after launch that had issues.
I'm thinking 4/3 for Sony and Microsoft respectively
Graphics Horse
Member
It was well into having issues before March though.
One possinble angle for this is novelty, and I believe the iPad came out in 2009 at the earliest, when the novelty of the consoles wore off. New consoles with decent marketing may well have that new hotness angle to get them to sell well, the Wii U DID flounder but excitement SEEMS way higher for PS4/XB1. Especially since those had far less conservative cutoffs for pre-orders both in time and sheer volume.
The Maverick
Member
I'm going 5:3 in Sony's favor. The PS4 is looking like a return to form. Sad that the system will probably pass Wii U LTD by the end of winter.
Chinpoko_Master
Member
The economy has been shit for a while and it seemingly hasn't had much of a negative effect on sales. In fact, it has probably had a positive effect if anything. I actually remember articles where people were calling video games recession proof. But now I'm supposed to believe that it's going to have an impact when the economy is much better than it was before? Lol, ok.
Based on that logic watching movies/TV shows through the TV is going to be out of fashion pretty soon as well?
Titanfall is coming also to xbox 360 and PC, so dont expect it to do miracles. An online only game can also put a lot people off.
LiveFromKyoto
Member
Ugh. Stop this please.
Canis lupus
Member
PS4 will sell a lot better than the PS3 did in 2007. The economy has little to do with it, its the end of the gen, sales naturally go down, people still buy iphones and tablets in droves year after year and PS3 went up YoY in 2008-2009-2010 during the years of the first crisis. For one the PS4 is a lot cheaper at launch, 2. the competition is more expensive this time, 3. PS4 has a lot of positive momentum from the media. All the stars have aligned for Sony, they couldn't be in a better position.
andromeduck
Member
IMO first few months of sales will depend almost entirely on supply - even the XBone will be sold out until early next year in most places unless PS4 remains well stocked throughout the holidays which is unlikely
Holy fuck at these predictions. When was the last time that $399+ consoles were flying off the shelves?
Think about how small the core audience actually is. Then think about how quickly they have bought their own. Then think about how those other players are going to get excited about same FPS games and sports games but now with new graphics, and run to the stores to pay $399 + game price. What is THE launch game to get people buy PS4s in droves for example? Killzone? Knack?
You are clearly seeing the hype at enthusiastic gaming forums which have nothing to do with reality. Very few people pay $400 for a console just because it's new hardware.
Not gonna happen.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
I think up til March it will be 5m PS4 - 3.5m XB1.
Then I expect sales to flatline for the PS4 for a while and the XB1 to pickup in US/UK making up the shortfall.
Then I expect sales to flatline for the PS4 for a while and the XB1 to pickup in US/UK making up the shortfall.
Graphics Horse
Member
When Kinect came out.
Canis lupus
Member
PS2? PS2 was 299 in 2001, inflation adjusted thats ~399 in 2013. Worse, PS2 was 499 euros at launch in several European markets. And uhhh the PS3 too. That console was also supply constrained until january 2007. You underestimate the core audience, its bigger than you think it is, the COD+Fifa populace(softcore) is a small part of the installbase.
PS3 averaged ~9-10m when it was 599-399 before it got its pricecut and a slim model.
PS2 wasn't $399, it was $299. You don't count the inflation because the numbers are what people see. PS2's official launch price in Europe wasn't 499€.
You don't see any differences at the market situation when PS2 or PS3 launched compared to when X1 and PS4 are launching, let's say in form of tablets, mobile gaming etc.? Also, you don't expect any kind of competition from Nintendo or Microsoft, just a pure victory march to Sony with PS4?
I don't think many of these markets have high adoption rates. While many do ie Europe, the biggests ones are in US and most parts of Europe. Either way PS4 will have a clear lead for at least a year in my opinion.
Not gonna speak for 5, 6 million predictions or whatever, but lol at these posts. People really think that the hardcore audience consists of this tiny group that only exists on internet forums.
No one expects competition from Nintendo.
cebri.one
Member
For comparison.
PS2 launch
U.S. - October 26, 2000
Japan - March 4, 2000
Europe - November 24, 2000
Sales (cumulative)
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2000 1.41 ( 1 month of sales in Japan)
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2001 10.61 (13 months JP, 5 months US, 4 months EU)
http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/PlayStation_2
5 million is quite impressive considering the Japanese launch date.
PS2 launch
U.S. - October 26, 2000
Japan - March 4, 2000
Europe - November 24, 2000
Sales (cumulative)
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2000 1.41 ( 1 month of sales in Japan)
Fiscal year ending March 31, 2001 10.61 (13 months JP, 5 months US, 4 months EU)
http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/PlayStation_2
5 million is quite impressive considering the Japanese launch date.
Interesting edit.
I'm curious, what makes you think the PS4 sales will flatline when the Xbone will pickup?
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
You're impressed by a prediction?
andromeduck
Member
I think you severely under estimate how much pent up demand there is.
It's been like 7 years FFS!
Canis lupus
Member
Inflation ofcourse matters, your buck isnt worth what a 2001 buck was. PS2 was 499 euros in several European markets. What are you trying to disprove, that PS4 will be supply constrained for months? It will be supply constrained, I don't know how this warrants a "holy fuck at that prediction" type of reaction.
I think there's some "Wii U isn't doing badly, consoles are just doooooomed" showing through here.
Just having my fun.
FWIW, I don't mean Nintendo is deeeeeaaaaaad, just the Wii U.
EDIT: In light of a certain other topic, I can see how that'd be taken the wrong way.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
I think everyone that wants a PS4 will have one by the time Infamous comes out. I don't see what they have to offer after that till the end of the year.
MS will market the hell out of the XB1 during these months and I think they will do whatever it takes. That may include bundling or price cuts and a casual focus with Kinect Sports and following that a Titanfall focus which will see them through to Halo and whatever else they have for the end of the year.
Prince Vultan
Banned
PS4 could do 5 million. I could totally see that happening I guess. Lots of big titles, significantly lower price point than it's only real competition, launching in a lot of territories this year... All they'd really need to tip the balance is a bit of letting the greyhound see the rabbit by announcing Uncharted 4 at the VGAs.
Xbone is harder to predict. Definitely a lot less than 5m, but I guess 3m or so is doable if Americans buy it en masse as we expect them to (Oprah and Ellen gonna be earning dem paychecks). The price point is going to hurt it big time everywhere else though. The serious lack of major exclusives/system sellers post launch up until whenever Halo 5 comes out probably won't do it any favours either.
Xbone is harder to predict. Definitely a lot less than 5m, but I guess 3m or so is doable if Americans buy it en masse as we expect them to (Oprah and Ellen gonna be earning dem paychecks). The price point is going to hurt it big time everywhere else though. The serious lack of major exclusives/system sellers post launch up until whenever Halo 5 comes out probably won't do it any favours either.
dapperbandit
Banned
Ganming is in a different place than it was in 2005/6 when they were still making WW2 shooters. There are more gamers and a lot of them like games that are released on a yearly basis like CoD and FIFA.
PS4 and Xbox One are aiming for this group of consumers while Nintendo isn't really fighting hard for that demographic.
I think there will be the initial surge, it will sell very well at launch, and then there will be a steady drip of sales until February when things will pick up again in Japan.
But 5 months from launch is anyone's guess.
I wouldn't say 5 million by then is outlandish, I just hope Sony don't end up with egg on their faces.
PS4 and Xbox One are aiming for this group of consumers while Nintendo isn't really fighting hard for that demographic.
I think there will be the initial surge, it will sell very well at launch, and then there will be a steady drip of sales until February when things will pick up again in Japan.
But 5 months from launch is anyone's guess.
I wouldn't say 5 million by then is outlandish, I just hope Sony don't end up with egg on their faces.
Impeccable
Member
4.4 million PS4 > 1.8 million Xbones
I paid 869 Deutsche Mark for my German launch PS2 which is ~444 according to the web converter I just used.
I had half of the cash up front by saving and selling my PS1 (for about as much as my mom paid for it), the rest I worked off by shredding stuff and carrying folders full of legal documents and assembling shelves in my dad's law firm, that's why I remember.
I'm not much into Sales-age, but I don't doubt that Sony can sell roughly their estimate based on demand from generation fatigue, lower price (and very attreactive bundles in some EU countries), holidays and they seem to be able to produce it in good numbers.
Xbox One I'm not sure about whether they'll hit their target or not, whatever that is. More expensive and a less than stellar reception from the public and tons of backlash from media, the internet and even politicians and watchdog groups put them in an interesing situation, even without rumoured yield issues.
You said that "PS4 will be supply constrained for months", and I disagree. During launch and holidays it will be supply constrained just like Xbox One and any other new product will be, but after that and "for months" is not gonna happen. February-March is when both consoles will be readily available everywhere, and that is only 2-3 months after launch and holiday craziness.
KillerMan91
Member
Well that is mainly because Nintendo flooded the market with consoles during the launch quarter. In retail it didn't sell anywhere near that 3.06 million. In US and Japan you could call the launch decent but in Europe it has sold pretty badly from the start. They are still selling launch shipment in EU...
That just seems to be largely built on assumptions that MS will do things while Sony will do nothing at all. There's still plenty of Sony's first-party studios working on things that haven't been revealed yet, with a good chance for them to have some offerings for the end of 2014 to meet the likes of Halo. As for the Xbone, it really depends on how much MS really want to either drop Kinect outright or just take a monetary hit on sales and just lower the price, but that's all purely speculative. Beyond that, you overestimate the casual audience's willingness to spend $500 on a new console for an experience they'll see as being readily available for far cheaper in the 360+Kinect.
Story short, both competitors will do whatever it takes. Don't expect either to slouch just because FY2013 comes to an end.
People just expect Nintendo's competition to fall of the edge sometimes; leaving Nintendo the only viable option.
Wages have not kept up with inflation though. So even if the prices matched accounting for inflation, people have less money to spend on things.
From the BBC http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20442666
You're ignoring the fact that the overall market has grown, just the market share has dropped.
As others will no doubt attest, Sony has kept things back for the rest of 2014. I guess they had news ready to spill if they needed to, but from pre orders, internet hype and MS pulling it's own noose tight, they didn't bother. Better to have some guns in reserve.
TechnicPuppet
Nothing! I said nothing!
I expect Sony to have games by the end of the year though to compete with Halo. My point was regarding the 8 months or so between Infamous launching and the new games coming. I think XB1 will makeup some if not all of its early losses during this time.
If you want to compare historic events with today you most certainly have to adjust for inflation. 299 in 2001 was not perceived the same as 299 today.