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[matmanx1]

I think Sony is going to have to continue subsidizing retailers with either the gift card promo, free game promo *or* a new PS3 bundle that includes a game in the box.

Otherwise that 15m number is going to be tough to achieve.

Still, seeing Sony return to profitability is good news indeed. And they certainly have a monster year in terms of significant PS3 releases lined up so it could get even better.

 

[darkwing]

oops wrong thread

 

[offshore]

LittleBigPlanet, Killzone 3, PlayStation Move Heroes and then the rest of the years line up may get retailers thinking they'll need more.

I'd like to understand the customer who's going to buy a $300 PS3 for Killzone 3, or a $300 PS3 for PS Move Heroes. I don't see it happening; it certainly didn't seem to happen with LBP2 given it was down on the first LBP.

This "massive software line-up" that people keep going on about really isn't that massive, sales wise. There's nothing - literally nothing - announced so far that Sony has coming out this year that is going to get people thinking "oh, I must get a PS3 for that".

The only thing that will help is a price cut.

 

[Carl]

They need to sell 2.8M PS3s in CQ1 to hit the 15M forecast for the fiscal year. Last year's CQ1 was 2.2M, 600k short. I don't think they can make it this time.

Last Q4 they complained of supply shortages though didn't they? Assuming that wasn't total horse shit, i don't think it will be too hard.

 

[Rolf NB]

I'd like to understand the customer who's going to buy a $300 PS3 for Killzone 3, or a $300 PS3 for PS Move Heroes. I don't see it happening; it certainly didn't seem to happen with LBP2 given it was down on the first LBP.

Paring it down to a single game like that is super mega disingenuous, and you should know better.

 

[TheOddOne]

I'd like to understand the customer who's going to buy a $300 PS3 for Killzone 3, or a $300 PS3 for PS Move Heroes. I don't see it happening; it certainly didn't seem to happen with LBP2 given it was down on the first LBP.

This "massive software line-up" that people keep going on about really isn't that massive, sales wise. There's nothing - literally nothing - announced so far that Sony has coming out this year that is going to get people thinking "oh, I must get a PS3 for that".

The only thing that will help is a price cut.

I have to agree with this too. While a excellent lineup, it's not the factor that might boost PS3 sales.

 

[StealthGoblin]

I'd like to understand the customer who's going to buy a $300 PS3 for Killzone 3, or a $300 PS3 for PS Move Heroes. I don't see it happening; it certainly didn't seem to happen with LBP2 given it was down on the first LBP.

This "massive software line-up" that people keep going on about really isn't that massive, sales wise. There's nothing - literally nothing - announced so far that Sony has coming out this year that is going to get people thinking "oh, I must get a PS3 for that".

The only thing that will help is a price cut.

You'd be surprised. I know its anecdotal evidence etc, but I've been chatting to a few people who had a PS2 and haven't got a PS3 and weren't really waiting for a particular game, but when you talk about some of the games that have came out for the system (MGS4, Uncharted 2, God of War, Gran Turismo etc) and then some of the games coming out for it (TLG, Twisted Metal) people think about getting one.

I know a guy that bought a PS3 just to play DC Universe Online. Thats nuts.

It really doesn't have to be a single game that drives sales, it can be the cumulative back catalog, a recent game ad or a look further down the line at whats coming.

 

[gofreak]

I'd like to understand the customer who's going to buy a $300 PS3 for Killzone 3, or a $300 PS3 for PS Move Heroes. I don't see it happening; it certainly didn't seem to happen with LBP2 given it was down on the first LBP.

This "massive software line-up" that people keep going on about really isn't that massive, sales wise. There's nothing - literally nothing - announced so far that Sony has coming out this year that is going to get people thinking "oh, I must get a PS3 for that".

The only thing that will help is a price cut.

What are people buying PS3s for right now, if not the collective appeal of its software library?

You don't think this year's lineup enhances that appeal even more? As time wears on, there's an increasing value in the system, and this year's lineup will certainly add a lot more and - yes - I think will finally convert people who'd been waiting for a certain tipping point to be reached.

If you're talking about where growth over 15m will come from next FY, that's another question. In that case, sure, a pricecut is going to contribute a lot more than the software lineup. The two together would be dynamite, and Sony probably should capitalise on that. But clearly there are many people buying PS3s as is, presumably for the software it's offering.

 

[Rolf NB]

You'd be surprised. I know its anecdotal evidence etc, but I've been chatting to a few people who had a PS2 and haven't got a PS3 and weren't really waiting for a particular game, but when you talk about some of the games that have came out for the system (MGS4, Uncharted 2, God of War, Gran Turismo etc) and then some of the games coming out for it (TLG, Twisted Metal) people think about getting one.

I know a guy that bought a PS3 just to play DC Universe Online. Thats nuts.

It really doesn't have to be a single game that drives sales, it can be the cumulative back catalog, a recent game ad or a look further down the line at whats coming.

This. It's always this. Don't kid yourself. The big games of the moment are what pushes people off the fence, but they are nowhere near the whole reason.

 

[Corto]

I'd like to understand the customer who's going to buy a $300 PS3 for Killzone 3, or a $300 PS3 for PS Move Heroes. I don't see it happening; it certainly didn't seem to happen with LBP2 given it was down on the first LBP.

This "massive software line-up" that people keep going on about really isn't that massive, sales wise. There's nothing - literally nothing - announced so far that Sony has coming out this year that is going to get people thinking "oh, I must get a PS3 for that".

The only thing that will help is a price cut.

But the current generation for Sony showed that its system sellers are not so anymore. Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy gave unsustained sales spikes and more at a regional level. It's the software library as a whole, and the system features that drive PS3 sustained sales, not a circunstancial overwhelming title. I thought that GT5 would have an effect like that but it didn't create that many ripples hardware sales wise.

 

[offshore]

Paring it down to a single game like that is super mega disingenuous

No it isn't. We're talking about Sony getting a boost in Q4 of some 600k, and it's being suggested that the software line-up in the first three months will help. I'm suggesting that it won't. Sony obviously think they'll make it though, and that's great. But I don't think the software is going to play a significant role in helping sell those PS3's.

Of course the collective library is important...but if someone has held off buying a PS3, can anyone really say that anything coming out in the first quarter, or indeed this calendar year, is going to tip the balance?

If ICO and SoTC sold so poorly on PS2, why is going to be any different for The Last Guardian? If Uncharted 2 is still barely over 4million, despite all the awards, all the praise and all the coverage it got, is anything really going to change for Uncharted 3? Same for KZ3, LBP2, and everything else Sony has coming out this year.

Honestly, I don't think so.

 

[jvm]

Can someone explain the "Approx. the same as FY09" part of this slide?

Total PS3 SW sales in FY09 were 115.6 million.
So far in FY10 they are 117.7 million.

Unless they plan to sell no software through the end of March, how will the PS3 software sales be approximately the same?

Maybe they just mean PS3+PSP+PS2 software in FY09 will be about the same, because gains in PS3 will make up for PSP and PS2 declines. But it's a dumb way to say it.

 

[Elios83]

Can someone explain the "Approx. the same as FY09" part of this slide?

Total PS3 SW sales in FY09 were 115.6 million.
So far in FY10 they are 117.7 million.

Unless they plan to sell no software through the end of March, how will the PS3 software sales be approximately the same?

Maybe they just mean PS3+PSP+PS2 software in FY09 will be about the same, because gains in PS3 will make up for PSP and PS2 declines. But it's a dumb way to say it.

Three platforms combined =)

 

[catashtrophe]

No it isn't. We're talking about Sony getting a boost in Q4 of some 600k, and it's being suggested that the software line-up in the first three months will help. I'm suggesting that it won't. Sony obviously think they'll make it though, and that's great. But I don't think the software is going to play a significant role in helping sell those PS3's.

Of course the collective library is important...but if someone has held off buying a PS3, can anyone really say that anything coming out in the first quarter, or indeed this calendar year, is going to tip the balance?

If ICO and SoTC sold so poorly on PS2, why is going to be any different for The Last Guardian? If Uncharted 2 is still barely over 4million, despite all the awards, all the praise and all the coverage it got, is anything really going to change for Uncharted 3? Same for KZ3, LBP2, and everything else Sony has coming out this year.

Honestly, I don't think so.

I thought Uncharted 2 sales were close to 5 mill or even surpassed the 5mill mark after ND announced the series has sold over 8 million so far

Also Sony shift systems based on its entire catalogue not coz of individual games

 

[jvm]

Three platforms combined =)

Like I said... dumb. I realize they may want to gloss over the PS2 and PSP software situation, but the hardware is the same situation.

 

[squatingyeti]

It could have a negative effect on software sales, but the creation of CFW for the PS3 may actually spur some extra hardware sales. Many people have gone out and purchased another system, or even a system for the first time.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Imo the right question is if Sony will cut the price soon enough and quite enough to surpass the 360 ww LTD sales by the end of this year.

The right question is if Sony will start moving more games and accessories than 360.

Way too much emphasis on consoles instead of the stuff that really shows the strength of a platform and generates the most profit.

 

[tzare]

good numbers overall, and PS3 seems healthy. that is all i care about. Next year NGP will be included too

The right question is if Sony will start moving more games and accessories than 360.

don't know about accesories, but ps3 tie-ratio is pretty close to 360's one.

 

[somuchwater]

No it isn't. We're talking about Sony getting a boost in Q4 of some 600k, and it's being suggested that the software line-up in the first three months will help. I'm suggesting that it won't. Sony obviously think they'll make it though, and that's great. But I don't think the software is going to play a significant role in helping sell those PS3's.

Of course the collective library is important...but if someone has held off buying a PS3, can anyone really say that anything coming out in the first quarter, or indeed this calendar year, is going to tip the balance?

If ICO and SoTC sold so poorly on PS2, why is going to be any different for The Last Guardian? If Uncharted 2 is still barely over 4million, despite all the awards, all the praise and all the coverage it got, is anything really going to change for Uncharted 3? Same for KZ3, LBP2, and everything else Sony has coming out this year.

Honestly, I don't think so.

Yeah, I'm with the people above: this feels off.

In 2011, the PS3 is a bit like the iPad - you don't buy it for one specific app or function; you buy it for the multiplicity that are available now and that you know are coming soon.

It's true that very few people will rush out to get a PS3 for KZ3 or LBP2. But the collected back and future catalogues are more than compelling enough reason to buy one, especially (this year) when put next to the 360 lineup. It's not that one suddenly sees a game and decides to buy one; it's that the aggregate effect of an impressive software library gradually makes a purchase more and more compelling.

 

[Elios83]

The right question is if Sony will start moving more games and accessories than 360.

Way too much emphasis on consoles instead of the stuff that really shows the strength of a platform and generates the most profit.

You're right although the two things are connected. PS3 will peak both in software and hardware sales when the hardware is sold at 199$, there's no other way around.
Btw PS3 is enjoying really healthy software sales, with a 9.1 tie ratio for the quarter and a 8.5 LTD tie ratio.

 

[Rolf NB]

The right question is if Sony will start moving more games and accessories than 360.

Way too much emphasis on consoles instead of the stuff that really shows the strength of a platform and generates the most profit.

Does Microsoft publicize quarterly software unit shipments?

 

[Zen]

The right question is if Sony will start moving more games and accessories than 360.

Way too much emphasis on consoles instead of the stuff that really shows the strength of a platform and generates the most profit.

I doubt it will catch up in acessories as Microsoft built an absolutely killer/ripoff scheme for acessories during the first X years of its life that just doesn't exist for Sony (much to their regret); tie ratio is pretty close though.

 

[Road]

The right question is if Sony will start moving more games and accessories than 360.

2010 software sold-through in US, Japan, UK, Spain, France, Germany:


360 - 87.8 million
PS3 - 85.3 million


Note: Estimates based on Nintendo's graphics -- they don't even encompass all software in Japan, for instance.

 

[tzare]

is there any way to know which % of software sales is from 1st party/3rd party ?

 

[NHale]

The right question is if Sony will start moving more games and accessories than 360.

Way too much emphasis on consoles instead of the stuff that really shows the strength of a platform and generates the most profit.

They already started. Software FY 09: PS3 - 115.6M vs 360 - 103.1M.

 

[Beer Monkey]

2010 software sold-through in US, Japan, UK, Spain, France, Germany:


360 - 87.8 million
PS3 - 85.3 million


Note: Estimates based on Nintendo's graphics -- they don't even encompass all software in Japan, for instance.

That's really, really close. Good on Sony.

 

[KingDizzi]

PSP hardware sales are good however not so much software. Said it time and time again that Sony need to make sure the first party support the NGP heavily, games like GT PSP selling 2 million at a stage where software sales for PSP are simply horrible in NA/EU is quite good. Come on Sony you're the boss, make sure those first parties have a game out for the NGP within the first 2 years. PS3 sales are horrible compared to where PS2/PS1 were at the same safe, really puts into perspective just how badly Sony gone fucked up. Logic tells me Killzone 3, Resistance 3 and inFamous 2 will be good games so here's hoping those sell well, all I give a fuck about when it comes to home consoles.

 

[Kagari]

PSP hardware sales are good however not so much software. Said it time and time again that Sony need to make sure the first party support the NGP heavily, games like GT PSP selling 2 million at a stage where software sales for PSP are simply horrible in NA/EU is quite good. Come on Sony you're the boss, make sure those first parties have a game out for the NGP within the first 2 years. PS3 sales are horrible compared to where PS2/PS1 were at the same safe, really puts into perspective just how badly Sony gone fucked up. Logic tells me Killzone 3, Resistance 3 and inFamous 2 will be good games so here's hoping those sell well, all I give a fuck about when it comes to home consoles.

And yet you continue to make posts just like these!

 

[Penguin]

Yeah, I'm with the people above: this feels off.

In 2011, the PS3 is a bit like the iPad - you don't buy it for one specific app or function; you buy it for the multiplicity that are available now and that you know are coming soon.

It's true that very few people will rush out to get a PS3 for KZ3 or LBP2. But the collected back and future catalogues are more than compelling enough reason to buy one, especially (this year) when put next to the 360 lineup. It's not that one suddenly sees a game and decides to buy one; it's that the aggregate effect of an impressive software library gradually makes a purchase more and more compelling.

I kind of agree with him, but mostly because a lot of the games coming out this year are sequels to games already on the consoles, I won't predict things like Twisted Metal or The Last Guardian.

But why would Killzone 3 finally be the game to make someone get a Ps3 if Killzone 2 didn't? Or Uncharted 3 over the first 2? Resistance, etc.

 

[AranhaHunter]

Some game specific bits and bobs from their earnings announcement.

Sales were down 9% to 323bn Yen, mostly due to the exchange rate. Operating income was up 28bn yen to 43bn yen (so, in fact, NPSG results weren't understating SCE's), an operating margin of 13%.

The game business has been profitable now for 5 consecutive quarters, and they expect NPSG to exceed their October forecast for the fiscal year.

Someone asked them about profitability in game going forward and in light of NGP. They said that rather than aiming at short term profit, creating a platform requires large upfront investment and that there'd be no exception to this approach in the future. They are willing to make a solid investment up front in NGP to secure profit in the future. But they expect PS3 to be a stabilising influence on profit, and that it is now in a good 'virtuous' cycle, and so they believe game can continue to be profitable next year.

i.e. read between the lines and it sounds like they will, and are willing, to support a loss on NGP in the short term, but they hope PS3 will offset that. That could be more challenging if they cut price, but perhaps further increasing software sales will offset that lower hardware margin.

They'll obviously try to at least break even on NGP, but not at a point where they price themselves out of the market like they pretty much did with the PS3. If needed, I can see a strategy where they lose ~5,000Y per core NGP (wi-fi only, small internal flash memory) and make ~2,000Y per premium NGP (3G+wifi, 2-4x bigger internal flash memory, a voucher for a launch game, a voucher for a Sony Picture movie that's out at the time, voucher for 1 month free of Qriocity music streaming). Probably a ~10,000Y difference between the 2 SKUs.

I'm also curious to see the end year financials so we get forecasts. Would like to see it for all 3 but unfortunately MS does not give forecasts so will have to settle for Sony and Nintendo. I think if Sony forecasts anything > 5 million PSPs this coming year, that means it's getting a price cut. Anything between 13 and 17 million probably means a U$50 price drop, anything below means no price drop, anything above 17 million probably means a U$100 price drop and a super slim revision. Also am very interested to see their forecast for NGP, could be telling if it's going to be a WW launch this Fall or not.

At the same time I'm interested in seeing Wii, 3DS and DS forecasts for next year as it'll also be telling.

 

[gtj1092]

I kind of agree with him, but mostly because a lot of the games coming out this year are sequels to games already on the consoles, I won't predict things like Twisted Metal or The Last Guardian.

But why would Killzone 3 finally be the game to make someone get a Ps3 if Killzone 2 didn't? Or Uncharted 3 over the first 2? Resistance, etc.

I don't get this. People buy consoles every day month and year people are still buying ps2 and yet not everyday or month does a huge game come out. People buy consoles for a collection of games. What you and other's are suggesting is that console sales would be at zero every month a 5 million unit plus game isn't released but we see that isn't the case.

 

[Corto]

I don't get this. People buy consoles every day month and year people are still buying ps2 and yet not everyday or month does a huge game come out. People buy consoles for a collection of games. What you and other's are suggesting is that console sales would be at zero every month a 5 million unit plus game isn't released but we see that isn't the case.

To be fair, Sony needs a 27% spike YoY on sales in this last quarter to meet their forecast for this FY. That's no easy feat. Even more so that I seem to remember in the Media Create threads PS3 sales are down YoY, in these last weeks. So USA and Europe need to make the difference. Yeah, it will be difficult.

 

[Mrbob]

The right question is if Sony will start moving more games and accessories than 360.

Way too much emphasis on consoles instead of the stuff that really shows the strength of a platform and generates the most profit.

IIRC PS3 sold more software than 360 worldwide last year, and will do the same again for 2010. I know the 360 is a software beast in the USA, but the PS3 isn't terrible. Plus the PS3 has the ability to sell software outside of the USA and UK. This is the 360 biggest weakness right now.

 

[gtj1092]

To be fair, Sony needs a 27% spike YoY on sales in this last quarter to meet their forecast for this FY. That's no easy feat.

I don't think they will meet the target but claiming no one will buy ps3 for "x" game is silly.

 

[Jokeropia]

Parmenides you always mix unit sales with production shipments even though we have actual unit sales LTDs through various PRs from Sony.

Unit sales LTD:

PS3: 47.9m
PSP: 67.8m
PS2: 149.7m

Software LTD:

PS3: 408.2m
PSP: 287.7m
PS2: >1526m

I was gonna say. Simply adding "unit sales" (sold to retailer, the normal definition of shipped) to "production shipments" (shipped to Sony warehouse) counts some systems twice.

PS2: 149.7
Nintendo DS: 144.59

I wonder when the DS will surpass the PS2.

Fixed, and soon.

 

[Canova]

These numbers say it outsold it by 2.3 million in 2010 an PS3 is 3 million behind LTD

Platform 2010 Share (%) LTD

Wii 17.2 33.9 84.64

PS3 14.4 28.4 47.9

360 12.1 23.9 50.9

PS2 6.9 13.8 152.59

2011 PS3 vs Wii numbers are gonna be close. While wii is losing steam, PS3 is maintaining it's momentum, if not getting better

 

[noobie]

2011 PS3 vs Wii numbers are gonna be close. While wii is losing steam, PS3 is maintaining it's momentum, if not getting better

WOW, are we going to see a third place console beating a first place console for the fiscal year 2012.. only if sony can get DQ on PS3 somehow for 2011 holidays in Japan

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Random Question: I've tried researching this and come up with no luck:

Just a rough rough estimate is fine(obviously lots of factors change the rate), but on average per game what percentage royalty is paid to sony per sale? 7%?

 

[Carl]

Random Question: I've tried researching this and come up with no luck:

Just a rough rough estimate is fine(obviously lots of factors change the rate), but on average per game what percentage royalty is paid to sony per sale? 7%?

Eurogame did an article a while back and they reckoned it was about 20% http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-01-10-where-does-my-money-go-article

 

[Canova]

WOW, are we going to see a third place console beating a first place console for the fiscal year 2012.. only if sony can get DQ on PS3 somehow for 2011 holidays in Japan

in 2009 Wii sold 22.5M
in 2010 Wii sold 17.2M
that's a decline of 23.5%

in 2009 PS3 sold 12.4M
in 2010 PS3 sold 14.4M
that's an increase of 16.1%

if Wii declined another 23.5% in 2011, that would take Wii annual sold number down to 13.2M. PS3 needs to maintain its number just to eclipse that

 

[bigtroyjon]

I don't think a 100 dollar price cut is a certainty this year, 100 less per unit in revenue and the division would have been in the red. I know it doesn't work exactly like that but it's close enough to show that a price cut puts the division on the edge. Most likely we will continue to see them add value to the package and not drop the price more than 50 dollars.

 

[noobie]

I don't think a 100 dollar price cut is a certainty this year, 100 less per unit in revenue and the division would have been in the red. I know it doesn't work exactly like that but it's close enough to show that a price cut puts the division on the edge. Most likely we will continue to see them add value to the package and not drop the price more than 50 dollars.

with NGP launch this year and Sony acknowledging loads of investment on infrastructure and also saying they will probably selling it in loss initially i believe Sony is going to be in RED even with a $50 price cut on PS3 in FY 2012.

just my .2 cent

 

[Dedication Through Light]

I don't think a 100 dollar price cut is a certainty this year, 100 less per unit in revenue and the division would have been in the red. I know it doesn't work exactly like that but it's close enough to show that a price cut puts the division on the edge. Most likely we will continue to see them add value to the package and not drop the price more than 50 dollars.

What? Who was calling for a 100 dollar price cut? I thought they dont need to drop price 50 dollars if they are maintaining a consistence sales pace, compared to the previous year?

 

[AdventureRacing]

I don't think a 100 dollar price cut is a certainty this year, 100 less per unit in revenue and the division would have been in the red. I know it doesn't work exactly like that but it's close enough to show that a price cut puts the division on the edge. Most likely we will continue to see them add value to the package and not drop the price more than 50 dollars.

The NGP looks as though it is going to be a money sink upon release. Surely dropping the price of the PS3 by $100 around the time it is releasing would send the gaming division well into the red. If anything they would want to keep the PS3 as profitable as possible to offset the losses from the NGP.

I think it's just as likely that MS drops the price on the 360. They have been profitable for longer, went without a price drop for longer and don't have to worry about a new money sink in the division.

Having said that i wouldn't hold my breath for a price drop on either console unless sales drop off. I think both are happy where they are and will want to make as much money as they can before they drop the price again.

 

[Mrbob]

WOW, are we going to see a third place console beating a first place console for the fiscal year 2012.. only if sony can get DQ on PS3 somehow for 2011 holidays in Japan

With the 360 having its best holiday a couple months ago, I don't think it is out of the question for the PS3 to get a massive boost when it goes to $199. However I still don't see that happening till Fall 2012. I think $249 is the safe bet for a price drop this year.

 

[Road]

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/release/110214_e.html

Now the PS2 has shipped more than 150 million units.

Tokyo, February 14, 2011– Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. (SCE) today announced that the cumulative sales of PlayStation®2 computer entertainment system reached 150 million units*1 worldwide, as of January 31, 2011. This incredible milestone was reached in 10 years and 11 months since PlayStation 2’s release in Japan on March 2000.

With strong support from 3rd party developers and publishers worldwide and a slew of blockbuster franchises from first party studios including Gran Turismo, God of War, SingStar*2 and Ratchet & Clank, PlayStation 2 features a vast library of more than 10,828 software titles, representing a broad range of game genres that appeal to everyone in the family. More than 1.52 billion units of PlayStation 2 software have been sold worldwide*3.

 

[Trevelyon]

Absolute juggernaut. Any of the current generation of consoles could only dream of having that type of market tenure.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Absolute juggernaut. Any of the current generation of consoles could only dream of having that type of market tenure.

Wii is tracking ahead of PS2 worldwide (launch aligned)

Still an amazing accomplishment though!

 

[Trevelyon]

Wii is tracking ahead of PS2 worldwide (launch aligned)!

Question is, will it receive the same stellar post-successor support with strong inroads into untapped foreign markets?

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Question is, will it receive the same stellar post-successor support with strong inroads into untapped foreign markets?

Probably not. Nintendo will drop the console like a brick as soon as Zelda gets released I bet (and it's not like its getting any support from anyone else)

Still, the console has evergreen sellers that the PS2 never had, which will keep the console going for a good while. I reckon it'll end up getting to around 130-140 million when all is said and done but we'll see.