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[Alchemy]

6 years is perfect. Hardware is cheaper than previous generations at launch, great architecture for backwards compatibility, and advances rather easily without having to throw away existing tools. Avoid franchise fatigue by having entire trilogies on the same system and stay a step ahead of the competition without feeling like you're abandoning anything too early.

Do it Sony!

 

[Horp]

I heard a rumor that PS5 will do 3D graphics in 1080p 60fps.
Crazy tech wizards, the future is soon here.

 

[Satchel]

I want ten.

He'll, I was just starting to enjoy my PS360 more with all the free and cheap digital games.

 

[Frillen]

How do you see the update history for a game on the PS4?

 

[ShinobiFist]

4 years is perfect while the fifth will be its swan song.

 

[Gen X]

The must have console of Xmas 2019. Believe.

And then we'll also see the Xbox Two-Twenty.

 

[Ashadur]

You make backwards compatible a certainty for future consoles and i won't have a problem upgrading the system in 3-6 years.

 

[Some Nobody]

Year 1: Focus on establishing your market, reach 5-10 million consumers, most games still crossgen.
Year 2: Market growth continues, releases for last gen begin to slow, crossgen titles almost nonexistent, price drop of $50 for the PS4, $100 for the Xbox One for the holidays.
Year 3: Developers begin to get comfortable with the systems, learning better tricks. Games that truly tap into the PS4/XBone's abilities become more common. At this point all PR bullshit has faded and gamers know what to expect from the gen as a whole. Rumors of new SKUs start to pop up.
Year 4: PS4/XBone become the primary systems on the market as support for the PS360 consoles stop almost entirely. New SKUs debut, a "sleek" PS4 and an "upgraded" XBone are released. (By this time the next Nintendo system may well be out. Hopefully it'll be more powerful than the PS4 and XBone, but more than likely nowhere near as powerful as what the PS5 will be later.)
Year 5: Business as usual, games games games.
Year 6: Announce new systems at the top of the year, release them near the end or the start of the seventh year.

Something like that.

 

[smr00]

I hope so. I'd like the return of a 5-6 year cycle.

5-6 years is perfect.

 

[tazz3]

I would like to see ps5 in 6 years.7 year cycle is to long.this might be my last gen iam retiring from gaming after this hen

 

[Pimpbaa]

Short lifecycles are definitely better considering the pace of GPU advancement. I got a feeling Sony and MS will keep the same architecture (but with more powerful GPUs, CPUs, and RAM), making BC much easier.

 

[False]

As long as they keep x86 architecture for backwards compatibility and a $400 at most price point, I'm okay with a quicker generation turn around.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Maybe true. If there is a big gulf (which probably is the case) between PS4 and XB1, I expect MS to start work on a next console early too (new CEO willing)

 

[coldfoot]

BC should be easy with PS4, just throw faster x86 cores and bigger gpu, more memory and we're there. Fully compatible.

 

[thunder_snail]

5 to 6 years with sustained support from Japanese devs after those years would be perfect. Looking forward to seeing Persona 6 on ps4 after its life cycle is over.

 

[darkistheway]

All of this makes me wonder about Nintendo. They can't make the Wii U last six years - they should have a successor in 2016-7. They should have no problem releasing a console more powerful than the PS4 (assuming they don't come up with another gimmick).

That would give them 2, even three years with most powerful console on the market.

That's a place Nintendo hasn't been for a long time...

 

[iLLmaticV3]

The next console gen after this will be what I have been waiting for since I was a kid. Can't wait.

 

[Moosehole]

I'd be ok with this. 5-6 years is the sweet spot. 7-8 is just too long.

 

[twobear]

Could you imagine if Sony release PS5 (should be easier, keep exactly the same architecture but beefed up) and catch MS out in about five years while MS are banking on another long cycle?

 

[Bgamer90]

Year 1: Focus on establishing your market, reach 5-10 million consumers, most games still crossgen.
Year 2: Market growth continues, releases for last gen begin to slow, crossgen titles almost nonexistent, price drop of $50 for the PS4, $100 for the Xbox One for the holidays.
Year 3: Developers begin to get comfortable with the systems, learning better tricks. Games that truly tap into the PS4/XBone's abilities become more common. At this point all PR bullshit has faded and gamers know what to expect from the gen as a whole. Rumors of new SKUs start to pop up.
Year 4: PS4/XBone become the primary systems on the market as support for the PS360 consoles stop almost entirely. New SKUs debut, a "sleek" PS4 and an "upgraded" XBone are released. (By this time the next Nintendo system may well be out. Hopefully it'll be more powerful than the PS4 and XBone, but more than likely nowhere near as powerful as what the PS5 will be later.)
Year 5: Business as usual, games games games.
Year 6: Announce new systems at the top of the year, release them near the end or the start of the seventh year.

Something like that.

Nice predictions. I agree.

 

[TheRealTalker]

I am rooting for 6 years

that is the sweet spot... before the fruit becomes too ripe and too rotten

 

[Kalamari]

I am just hoping Sony and MS don't make another move like motion control peripherals as an excuse to extend the generation. Considering that we all know that Occulus technology coming, it wouldn't surprise me if they tried to pull something similar with a VR peripheral.

 

[Apparition]

The computational power required to go from 4k from 1080p is already enormous (think 3x TITANS).

I cannot possibly imagine the kind of rig required to run games at 8k. I expect 4k to become the norm within 5 years though.

You can already get around 30fps in most games from a single high-end GPU (at the highest setting, too). Naturally, Crysis and Metro would require more juice.

Source

Realistically, the next gen consoles will be targeted as 4K machines. 8K won't be commercially available until 2015-6 at the earliest and it will take time for it to become main stream. Moving 8.3MP images at 60fps is quite demanding so I imagine moving 33.1MP at even 30fps will be really resource-intensive. Even thinking about 16K gives me shivers!

 

[TheSinkingKnight]

I'd honestly be ok with buying a new console every 4 years.

 

[clutch.as.it.gets.]

5 years are perfect. 7 and 8 years were just too fucking long.

 

[Origami Superman]

I don't mind the longer gens. And BC will probably be behind some sort of paywall the way things are going.

 

[Tmecha]

Just putting it out there.

What if Ver 2 of the current systems come out? eg;

PS4-2.0 and Xb1-2.0 come out in 4-5 years.

Both have Upgrades specs but still use the same brand cpu, gpu etc. - Not a huge jump so games wont be possible on the original model.

Games come out still packaged under Xb1 and PS4, but now if u have the model 2 system it runs and looks better compared to the original. same disc same game.
Or something like you buy Halo 6 - 1080p on Xb1 now download the gfx pack on your new console and now you running at 4k res.

No spilt market, no need for late comers to panic over new system coming out early.

 

[Showaddy]

It'll be interesting to see how future PS4 SKU's work, the current model is pretty damn trim, would even be possible to get it down to PS2 Super-Slim size with the current hardware?

 

[AmyS]

5 or 6 years has always been perfect for console lifecycles.

4 years is too short, 7 or 8 years is too long.

 

[ZealousMonkey]

I am all for this. 5 years baby.

 

[VillageBC]

As much as I want it to return. I do not see the return of backwards compatibility anytime soon. Not since they've discovered the art of reselling us the same game over and over again. Why give that up?

Besides, it looks like Nintendo that will be first to next-gen launch as they have the most to gain by resetting the clock.

 

[coolasj19]

Year 1: Focus on establishing your market, reach 5-10 million consumers, most games still crossgen.
Year 2: Market growth continues, releases for last gen begin to slow, crossgen titles almost nonexistent, price drop of $50 for the PS4, $100 for the Xbox One for the holidays.
Year 3: Developers begin to get comfortable with the systems, learning better tricks. Games that truly tap into the PS4/XBone's abilities become more common. At this point all PR bullshit has faded and gamers know what to expect from the gen as a whole. Rumors of new SKUs start to pop up.
Year 4: PS4/XBone become the primary systems on the market as support for the PS360 consoles stop almost entirely. New SKUs debut, a "sleek" PS4 and an "upgraded" XBone are released. (By this time the next Nintendo system may well be out. Hopefully it'll be more powerful than the PS4 and XBone, but more than likely nowhere near as powerful as what the PS5 will be later.)
Year 5: Business as usual, games games games.
Year 6: Announce new systems at the top of the year, release them near the end or the start of the seventh year.

Something like that.

Hell I liked this gen. What's with you 5 years guys anyway? There's no reason to do that unless the buying trend slows to a crawl, you want these things to be massively adopted, the more there are out there, the more games they get. I don't enjoy plopping down several hundreds of dollars just for new hardware, hell, if I wanted to do that I'd just buy a PC. I buy consoles because they are a very long and worthwhile investment. Slow down and let things run their course. Devs won't be constrained by technology often or if ever for a long long time. And if they need power, resolution dumps baby.

 

[kinggroin]

5 with backwards compatibility

 

[Gucci Messiah]

I'm okay with longer cycles

 

[Kai Ozu]

In what reality?

It's not unreasonable to imagine there will be ideas being thrown around studios at the moment for games designed for PS4/One that have more ambition than something like GTA5. As such, some of these games will not even be finished in 4 years.

I could care less about games like GTA5.

 

[Epcott]

Japanese developers am cry.

 

[Punkster_NY]

4 years is long enough.

 

[The Silver]

This gen needs to hurry up so the glorious VR future can arrive.

 

[Biker19]

Highly doubt that Xbox One will last 10 years.

 

[jsip]

I'd honestly be ok with buying a new console every 4 years.

If the hardware remains compatible then I can see this easily as it would not be a headache for dev tools.

 

[pixlexic]

that is why i am keeping up with my pc builds this gen as well.

 

[RayMaker]

A 20Tflop 60gb DDR4 huma 3.0 beast.

will it do avatar graphics?

 

[HigherLevel]

I could care less about games like GTA5.

How much less could you care?

 

[McLovin]

The new architecture is scalable no? What if the go the iPhone/iPad route and release a slightly better one every year?

 

[Finaika]

4 years for the PS4.

1 year for the Xbox One.

 

[SparkTR]

More like speculation, not hints. I wouldn't be surprised at another 8 year generation, depending on what happens.

The new architecture is scalable no? What if the go the iPhone/iPad route and release a slightly better one every year?

iPhones sell insanely better at way higher margins than game consoles do, I doubt the industry could support yearly iterations like that.

 

[IcyRhythms]

The jump in tech is considerably weaker than the leaps we've seen in the past. This makes sense

 

[coolasj19]

The new architecture is scalable no? What if the go the iPhone/iPad route and release a slightly better one every year?

ALL of the hell no!! That defies the very purpose behind consoles. Get a PC for that. Why would you want to spend several hundreds of dollars every year?!

 

[drproton]

I think a shorter cycle would be a natural result of the architecture they've used in the PS4.

Binary compatibility and cross-generation games at the PS5 launch would be far easier to do.

 

[NeoGash]

For Microsoft's sake they should hope this is true. This is going to be a very long generation for Microsoft, or short, depending on how you look at it. It isn't just the power difference, but Sony seem to be doing everything better and for cheaper. I'll likely end up owning both consoles, but if this generation only goes for 5 years, I think I might have to choose just one. I think I'll get a PS4 first, but maybe only in 2015.