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[truth411]

I don't see a price drop coming any time soon. Sony is a company trying to recover. It badly needs profits and if demand for the consoles is steady then they are going to bundle away like mad. I've seen some state that they could cut price and make it up in Plus subscriptions, but I see two weaknesses in that logic.

• Not every customer purchases a Plus subscription.
  [*]As long as people are paying $399 there is no incentive to cut price.

Microsoft could theoretically change this if they start drastically recapturing market share this holiday. After all, they do have a wonderful holiday lineup and if their big games don't suffer launch woes then they could make out like bandits. Especially if they were to do another promotional drop of $50. In that case I could see Sony doing a promotional drop of their own since they don't have other triple AAA titles to counter with outside of multiplatform titles.

A. Last I heard Sony has well over 50% attach rate with PS+, with the increase in sales a price drop would bring including software sales. I'd argue they would make more money in the long run since PS+ is a yearly subscription, not to mention the added software sales that wouldn't exist otherwise.

B. Very presumptuous on your part about Sony's holiday lineup before it have even been announced. Bring that up again after GamesCom or TGS.

 

[Elandyll]

Either June or August.

I'm leaning towards August

Imo, September, $299, with full Destiny marketing $ at work.

 

[noobie]

That Batman bundle pretty much says $0 price drop at E3. I'm not sure if it would be sound dropping $100 off the PS4 in a holiday promotion ala MS last year.

If Sony is after profits this gen (pun intended), $50 w/bundled games seems like the proper/smart drop. If Sony wants to bury MS, then $299.99 is the price to do so.....but at what cost? Does the PS4 currently cost $299.99 to manufacture, (6 months from now even)? Don't think so...even if it were the margins would be pretty slim.

I think more important think to look for is how much revenue is generated by each play station user for Sony? if it is more than US $50 then no issue in dropping the price to US $299. if its < US $30 then it may not be wise. If its between US $ 30 - US $50 then they have to decide based on many other factors to realise its worth.

I believe dropping the price to $299 is important to keep expand PS4 in less developed markets where PS2 was pretty successful like India now china also. Also it will help to get more exclusives and make developers lean more towards PS4 and finally and most importantly,

Spoiler

you have to keep the momentum. btw What is momentum?

A. Last I heard Sony has well over 50% attach rate with PS+, with the increase in sales a price drop would bring including software sales. I'd argue they would make more money in the long run since PS+ is a yearly subscription, not to mention the added software sales that wouldn't exist otherwise.

B. Very presumptuous on your part about Sony's holiday lineup before it have even been announced. Bring that up again after GamesCom or TGS.

A. i wander how much profit is Sony generating from PS+. They are giving lot of games and discounts. I think at the end of the day they may be getting only ~$10 as profit. Yes it is generating revenue for them but i am talking about profit.

B. dont you think Gamesom and TGS are too late for Sony to announce any AAA fall title? which is totally unknown to public like GOW or GT7 ?

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I think more important think to look for is how much revenue is generated by each play station user for Sony? if it is more than US $50 then no issue in dropping the price to US $299. if its < US $30 then it may not be wise. If its between US $ 30 - US $50 then they have to decide based on many other factors to realise its worth.

I believe dropping the price to $299 is important to keep expand PS4 in less developed markets where PS2 was pretty successful like India now china also. Also it will help to get more exclusives and make developers lean more towards PS4 and finally and most importantly,

Spoiler

you have to keep the momentum. btw What is momentum?

A. i wander how much profit is Sony generating from PS+. They are giving lot of games and discounts. I think at the end of the day they may be getting only ~$10 as profit. Yes it is generating revenue for them but i am talking about profit.

B. dont you think Gamesom and TGS are too late for Sony to announce any AAA fall title? which is totally unknown to public like GOW or GT7 ?

Where do you get that $10 from? I don't think they are paying that much for Plus games. Discounts on digital games don't lose money.

 

[ClearData]

A. Last I heard Sony has well over 50% attach rate with PS+, with the increase in sales a price drop would bring including software sales. I'd argue they would make more money in the long run since PS+ is a yearly subscription, not to mention the added software sales that wouldn't exist otherwise.

B. Very presumptuous on your part about Sony's holiday lineup before it have even been announced. Bring that up again after GamesCom or TGS.

I don't have any data to back this up but my hypothesis is that Sony is going to improve margins as consoles become cheaper to produce. So unless acted upon by an external force it doesn't make sense to cut down a guaranteed source of profit for a theoretical one in increased Plus subscriptions assuming the profit there covers production costs. Empirically Sony has had numerous opportunities to cut the price but has not done so. I believe this could mean that they are not going to reduce the price until demand slows.

Presumptuous? Perhaps. But I can only comment on what I see now. And the likelihood of a AAA reveal in release in so few months feels slim. Would that mystery game or games counter Halo, Tomb Raider, and Forza? I suppose time will tell.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I don't have any data to back this up but my hypothesis is that Sony is going to improve margins as consoles become cheaper to produce. So unless acted upon by an external force it doesn't make sense to cut down a guaranteed source of profit for a theoretical one in increased Plus subscriptions assuming the profit there covers production costs. Empirically Sony has had numerous opportunities to cut the price but has not done so. I believe this could mean that they are not going to reduce the price until demand slows.

Presumptuous? Perhaps. But I can only comment on what I see now. And the likelihood of a AAA reveal in release in so few months feels slim. Would that mystery game or games counter Halo, Tomb Raider, and Forza? I suppose time will tell.

I just don't see it entering year 3 with no price drop. At some point dropping the price will lead to more profit overall. The point has to be drawing near.

 

[noobie]

I just don't see it entering year 3 with no price drop. At some point dropping the price will lead to more profit overall. The point has to be drawing near.

I think dropping of price is agreed upon by almost everyone. But how much will they drop price. $50 or $100, that is the question.

 

[Javin98]

I remember. But I think where Gnawtydog and I perhaps got confused is how you seemed to imply they would always channel stuff every quarter. It's a short term thing as I said, hence why Xbox One sales this quarter will be relatively low.

Also not quite sure where you're not seeing demand, the Xbox One saw huge demand in the USA during the last holiday season. The first 9 months of 2014 saw ~1.7m Xbox One's sold through where as the last 3 months of 2014 saw ~2.7m sold through, that is a huge increase in demand and with the holidays usually seeing a spike it's not unusual to see shipments increase drastically to cater for that demand.

Of course with Xbox One they may have overestimated the total demand and sold in too many units, hence why the price drop was kept and we've heard anecdotal reports of stock in channel. But to say demand was low for the holiday season is wrong. Overshipped? Yes.

I think I worded it wrongly, but I never said demand was low. I'm simply saying that Microsoft's shipments far exceeded the demand, hence, the excess stock in warehouses in January. It would be foolish to say the demand was low during the holiday seasons when the XB1 did amazing numbers in the US. It is possible that Microsoft simply overestimated the demand though.

in the X1's case sold and shipped is a huge difference. Could take 2 months for them to sell through a million units. Maybe more then that.

Thats why I asked, thats the highest I've ever heard someone say the X1 had SOLD and that was stated for end of December lol.

I'd say 12M sold now at this point, but not back in December.

My own predictions put the XB1 sold through number at ~9.75 million and shipments at 11 million by 31st December 2015. However, this quarter, we had evidence that there were way too many XB1's in warehouses, so the shipments this quarter will be quite low. So I'm predicting sold through at ~11 million and shipments at ~12 million right now.

I think dropping of price is agreed upon by almost everyone. But how much will they drop price. $50 or $100, that is the question.

I'm expecting a price drop to $299. $349 would seem too insignificant after all the XB1 bundles last holiday IMO.

 

[Chobel]

$100 price cut in September 1st, coinciding with MGS 5 release date. That's my guess.

 

[Javin98]

$100 price cut in September 1st, coinciding with MGS 5 release date. That's my guess.

With the release of Halo 5 currently being set in October right now, I wouldn't be surprised if Sony cuts the price in early October

 

[ClearData]

I just don't see it entering year 3 with no price drop. At some point dropping the price will lead to more profit overall. The point has to be drawing near.

And you may very well be correct. But I don't think it's going to be because they will cover the difference with Plus subs. I think two factors are going to be the most influential.

A. Demand slows at the $399 price point.
B. The PS4 becomes cheaper to produce. Perhaps they release a slim model at this point.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

$100 price cut in September 1st, coinciding with MGS 5 release date. That's my guess.

With the limited edition console(plz release it in the US Sony).

 

[Inuhanyou]

I'll be surprised if Sony cuts the price at all this year. MS are the ones reacting all the time, their value proposition was simply not there to begin with. Reacting to what they do is a surefire way to lose.

I was really expecting Sony to lower the price and be super aggressive after MS threw in the kitchen sink at Holiday 2014 and i was baffled when they didn't budge at all.

It turned out they didn't need to, and shows how much i really know about reacting in the moment.

The fact of the matter is, Sony will drop the price on their own terms i think, and not any time before that. Maybe when they come out with a slimline mid 2016 or so.

 

[Nightengale]

$100 price cut in September 1st, coinciding with MGS 5 release date. That's my guess.

Same.

Bundle announcement at Gamescom.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I'll be surprised if Sony cuts the price at all this year. MS are the ones reacting all the time, their value proposition was simply not there to begin with. Reacting to what they do is a surefire way to lose.

I was really expecting Sony to lower the price and be super aggressive after MS threw in the kitchen sink at Holiday 2014 and i was baffled when they didn't budget at all.

It turned out they didn't need to, and shows how much i really know about reacting in the moment.

The fact of the matter is, Sony will drop the price on their own terms i think, and not any time before that

And why couldn't this Fall be their time instead of reactionary?

 

[Lexad]

I am very interested to see how Bloodborne does for sales. Lots of Souls fans out there that want to play and Sony has done a great job marketing it.

 

[Nightengale]

The fact that Sony dropped the price of the Canadian MRSP to 399 CAD is what gives me some amount of reaffirmation that they're ready and planning to drop the price.

399 CAD is 319 USD. That's really close to the 299 price-point.

 

[Inuhanyou]

^ Wasnt the PS4 overpriced in Canada to start with compared to other markets?

And why couldn't this Fall be their time instead of reactionary?

My view is they are gonna wait until demand declines at the current pricepoint, and that seems to not be happening anytime soon.

 

[23qwerty]

The fact that Sony dropped the price of the Canadian MRSP to 399 CAD is what gives me some amount of reaffirmation that they're ready and planning to drop the price.

399 CAD is 319 USD. That's really close to the 299 price-point.

Wait really? I'm not seeing it at 399 anywhere.

^ Wasnt the PS4 overpriced in Canada to start with compared to other markets?

It launched at 399 but they raised it to 449 like 6 months or so after.

 

[xaosslug]

no price-cut this year, imo. There's no need. Just bundle more games & PS+.

 

[Inuhanyou]

It launched at 399 but they raised it to 449 like 6 months or so after.

That's what i was thinking of.

But yeah, my guess is, the pricedrop will come with a major HW revision, 299$, 2016 or 2017. I'm thinking maybe more 2017 as it'll be about 3 and a half years from launch by then. That's around the same turnaround for the PS3 slim

 

[jryi]

And you may very well be correct. But I don't think it's going to be because they will cover the difference with Plus subs. I think two factors are going to be the most influential.

A. Demand slows at the $399 price point.
B. The PS4 becomes cheaper to produce. Perhaps they release a slim model at this point.

I think that A is more important, but it may be that Sony is not only waiting for demand to drop. Rather, they would like to see demand increase more. They probably have quite a good understanding of price elasticity in home console market, and if they think that with current market penetration it is possible to accelerate sales even further by dropping the price, they'll do it.

One thing to note: you have to keep in mind, that Sony is not exactly sitting on a pile of unsold consoles. They have to think about manufacturing and shipping times, so that they have enough supply to meet the demand. Somebody mentioned, that Sony are masters of just-in-time logistics; I don't know how much flexibility there is in their supply chain, but they have to start preparing for a price drop well in advance.

I'm only guessing here, but I'd put my money (very little of it, though) on a $100 drop in August.

 

[Chobel]

The fact that Sony dropped the price of the Canadian MRSP to 399 CAD is what gives me some amount of reaffirmation that they're ready and planning to drop the price.

399 CAD is 319 USD. That's really close to the 299 price-point.

I think that was only temporary promotion.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

That's what i was thinking of.

But yeah, my guess is, the pricedrop will come with a major HW revision, 299$, 2016 or 2017. I'm thinking maybe more 2017 as it'll be about 3 years from launch by then

Are there examples of any electronic devices that kept their starting retail prices that long?

 

[Nightengale]

I think that was only temporary promotion.

Oh, my mistake then. Sorry.

 

[Inuhanyou]

Are there examples of any electronic devices that kept their starting retail prices that long?

Can't say that there are, but this gen has been pretty strange overall compared to previous trends anyway. I think the console market became trained to not look for major pricedrops after 360 and PS3 stayed higher price wise even in their twilight years. Looking on Amazon right now, the PS3 Lego bundle is still 250 and the main console is still 200

 

[Chobel]

Can't say that there are, but this gen has been pretty strange overall compared to previous trends anyway. I think the console market became trained to not look for major pricedrops after 360 and PS3 stayed higher price wise even in their twilight years.

The market was surely not trained when XB1 price dropped to $349.

 

[Inuhanyou]

The market was surely not trained when XB1 price dropped to $349.

360 and PS3 had value proposition for people at those price points.

As i said earlier, XB1's value proposition was never there from the start. They start at 500, in less than a year go down 150 and still lose horribly compared to a console more expensive. The only time they've even won was when they throw in like 3 or 4 free games, several gift cards and even further retail specific promotions bringing the base price downto 320 or so, with moms who want a cheap gaming console for their kids at christmas to go pick them up.

There are just more people passively who are interested in PS4 and will buy it at such a price. Sony are in a very rare and enviable position globally in the console space

 

[googleplex]

I think dropping of price is agreed upon by almost everyone. But how much will they drop price. $50 or $100, that is the question.

I'm pretty positive that the PS4 will get a $100 price drop this holiday. That will lead right into a nice PS4/Morpheus bundle in 2016

PS4 = $299.99
VR Bundle (PS4,Camera, Headset) = $499.99

 

[LiquidSolid]

My view is they are gonna wait until demand declines at the current pricepoint, and that seems to not be happening anytime soon.

That would be an incredibly passive move on Sony's part and I don't think they'll do it. Last year wasn't a good time for a price drop and they didn't need to react to Microsoft's desperate moves. This year is a far better time and they'll want to increase their momentum, not just cruise on what they've got.

 

[ZhugeEX]

My own predictions put the XB1 sold through number at ~9.75 million and shipments at 11 million by 31st December 2015.

You're really contradicting yourself here, and we've been through this before. You say that Microsoft overshipped but then you say it can't be more than 11 million.

Market Research groups have noted that Xbox One shipments are closer to 12.5m as of end of 2014 and I myself have put in a broad prediction of 11.5m-12.5m based on a number of factors.

One thing you're missing is that we have combined shipments for 360 + One for the final 3 quarters of 2014. If you honestly think that Xbox One only sold in 11 million then that means the Xbox 360 sold in 5 million consoles which isn't a drop from 7 million during the prior year. (And MS said 360 consoles dropped significantly). That also means you're saying that the 360 outsold the PS3 by 1.6 million units worldwide in 2014 and we know that US sales weren't even 1.5m in 2014 for 360.

So you really need to think about what you're saying before you post it because saying 11 million just because you yourself can't believe Xbox to be successful is wrong. You need to have an open mind and calculate sales properly.

So as has already been stated, 11.5m - 12.5m is the range with the average being 12 million. So we can say with some clarity that Xbox 360 outsold PS3 in 2014, but also say that Xbox One sales will be around 12 million at the end of 2014.

I'll be surprised if Sony cuts the price at all this year. MS are the ones reacting all the time, their value proposition was simply not there to begin with. Reacting to what they do is a surefire way to lose.

It's not that they'd be reacting, it's that the cost to produce the console will be cheaper based on pre-agreed contracts and so Sony will be able to pass on the cost savings to consumers, give consumers a stronger reason to buy Sony and compete against the competition who will likely enter at a lower price this holiday in order for a quick market share gain.

Are there examples of any electronic devices that kept their starting retail prices that long?

Apple says hi!

 

[StrongBlackVine]

You're really contradicting yourself here, and we've been through this before. You say that Microsoft overshipped but then you say it can't be more than 11 million.

Market Research groups have noted that Xbox One shipments are closer to 12.5m as of end of 2014 and I myself have put in a broad prediction of 11.5m-12.5m based on a number of factors.

One thing you're missing is that we have combined shipments for 360 + One for the final 3 quarters of 2014. If you honestly think that Xbox One only sold in 11 million then that means the Xbox 360 sold in 5 million consoles which isn't a drop from 7 million during the prior year. (And MS said 360 consoles dropped significantly). That also means you're saying that the 360 outsold the PS3 by 1.6 million units worldwide in 2014 and we know that US sales weren't even 1.5m in 2014 for 360.

So you really need to think about what you're saying before you post it because saying 11 million just because you yourself can't believe Xbox to be successful is wrong. You need to have an open mind and calculate sales properly.

So as has already been stated, 11.5m - 12.5m is the range with the average being 12 million.



It's not that they'd be reacting, it's that the cost to produce the console will be cheaper based on pre-agreed contracts and so Sony will be able to pass on the cost savings to consumers, give consumers a stronger reason to buy Sony and compete against the competition who will likely enter at a lower price this holiday in order for a quick market share gain.



Apple says hi!

Which Apple product stays the same price for 3 years? Enlighten me.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Which Apple product stays the same price for 3 years? Enlighten me.

That shiny one with the apple logo on it.

I dunno, probably some iPod or something. Wasn't Apple TV also the same price or something.

Edit: The "new" Apple TV launched at $99 in March 2012, saw it's first price drop in March 2015.

 

[StrongBlackVine]

That shiny one with the apple logo on it.

I dunno, probably some iPod or something. Wasn't Apple TV also the same price or something.

Nah. Apple products keep their value, but the refresh cycle guarantees that older models drop in price.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Nah. Apple products keep their value, but the refresh cycle guarantees that older models drop in price.

See my edit.

 

[1st Course]

Sony rolling out budget smartphone sensors

http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Sony-rolling-out-budget-smartphone-sensors

TOKYO -- Sony has developed low-priced image sensors for cut-rate smartphones, aiming to cultivate rising emerging-market demand in a bid to further boost its global share.

The Japanese electronics giant has not revealed prices for the new sensors, which lack some of the functions in its higher-end models. In China, they will be used in midrange to low-end smartphones priced at 700 yuan and 1,000 yuan ($112 and $161).

In 2014, Sony topped the global complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) image sensor market with a roughly 40% share on a value basis. It had mostly supplied sensors for high-end phones by such manufacturers as Apple and Samsung Electronics. With the launch of the new sensors, it hopes to boost its share to more than 50% as early as this year.

Sony will by the end of September 2016 spend around 150 billion yen ($1.23 billion) to boost its monthly image sensor capacity by 45% to 87,000 300mm wafer equivalents, with much of the added capacity expected to be devoted to parts for lower-end handsets.

Smartphone makers in emerging markets, such as China's Xiaomi and Huawei Technologies and India's Micromax, are on the rise, with three of the world's top five hailing from such regions. With emerging markets expected to keep driving smartphone market growth, Sony considered it important to capitalize on increasing demand for lower-end handsets.

Other Japanese manufacturers of parts for smartphone cameras are also looking to tap the Chinese market. Alps Electric will supply image stabilization components to Chinese smartphone makers this fiscal year. It expects this to boost shipments of high-performance optical image stabilization actuators, used in the iPhone 6 Plus, by 30% in fiscal 2015 over last fiscal year's results.

Mitsumi Electric will also start selling to Chinese and South Korean manufacturers this fiscal year. It is expected to roughly double production volume from fiscal 2014, in part by adding new production lines at a plant in the Philippines.

Each of these companies will look to use the know-how and brand power they gained with high-end parts to grow their share of the lower end of the market.

(Nikkei)

Article about Sony's image sensor business.