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[Son Of D]

The irony is that fans will be its harshest critics, but they will also pay to see the movie in droves.

Saw all the movies for the first time this year in Machete order. They're okay, not fantastic movies. It's obvious this franchise is fueled by nostalgia hype and voracious appetites by its longtime fans. But Disney really cooked up the perfect combination of hype (Battlefront + this movie) to rake in money from this franchise this year. Good on them.

If anything Episode 7 will help push Battlefront sales. I can see Sony pushing that Star Wars ad a lot and getting people interested in a Star Wars game to play before/after they see Episode 7.

Why's that?

I'm guessing he'll be unable to buy a ticket due to them all selling out. That or he doesn't like really big crowds.

 

[BattleMonkey]

The movies also don't matter all that much. The real money is in the merchandising.

 

[Ensirius]

Stat Wars is back baby!

 

[Tagyhag]

No matter how the movie does critically, it's going to be in the top 2 highest grossing for sure. I don't see it having the legs of Avatar though.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

But guys the holidays are not a benchmark for box office, remember

Avatar came out on the same day in December of 2009.

 

[Blader]

IIRC - I believe Lucas did end up donating all of the (actual) money he got from Disney for Lucasfilm. He's said several times that he just sold it to Disney because Disney was the only company he trusted with Star Wars, and that they complied with some other requirements (leaving Kennedy in charge, Abrams would direct Episode VII, etc etc), and that he deliberately sold it to them at chump change levels.

I think Goldman Sachs did an analysis after the sale and said that the Lucasfilm rights (Lucasarts + Indiana Jones + Star Wars) should have gone for around 15 billion.

He's a pretty big philanthropist - 200+ million to USC, 1-2 billion for a museum TBD, and most of the money from the sale of Lucasfilm.

yeah but i didn't like indiana jones 4

 

[lawnchair]

i want to see the movie before too much shit gets spoiled for me, but damn what a clusterfuck every theater is going to be for a while..

 

[Shig]

It'll most assuredly decimate previously-held opening weekend numbers with ease.

Whether it takes the overall title is up to how good it is. If it's highly rewatchable, I would expect a LOT of repeat viewers bolstering the numbers, in addition to long legs with the single-timers. Avatar was good but I'd wager the amount of people that went more than once was negligable. The Star Wars fanbase is near-as-damn a religion for a pretty huge group, a good SW movie will send a lot of people to church many times over.

 

[Askherserenity]

Wait, what's the deal with people saying "but it's opening in December."? Are they trying to say people won't go see the movie because of Christmas? I don't get it...

 

[kswiston]

I was thinking the same thing.

It's not even the Hunger Games, the record holder was Mockingjay pt 1, which made $122M that first weekend (which is currently the 18th best opening weekend).

8x the record is extremely impressive and points to a monster weekend, but Fandango presales have never correlated well with grosses. That's a large part of what lead to the AoU disappointment earlier this year. Analysts (and Disney) were predicting $210-230M based on presales.

 

[half a moon]

Wait, what's the deal with people saying "but it's opening in December."? Are they trying to say people won't go see the movie because of Christmas? I don't get it...

I don't know. Avatar released in Dec. they're obviously wrong

 

[-shadow-]

I want to be there day one but that's going to be impossible. Will wait a week or so and than go during a schoolday, that should help at least somewhat...

 

[Dreams-Visions]

It's not even the Hunger Games, the record holder was Mockingjay pt 1, which made $122M that first weekend (which is currently the 18th best opening weekend).

8x the record is extremely impressive and points to a monster weekend, but Fandango presales have never correlated well with grosses. That's a large part of what lead to the AoU disappointment earlier this year. Analysts (and Disney) were predicting $210-230M based on presales.

Also keep in mind that a whole lot of people didn't use Fandango. Their website was busted as shit. Lots of people simply called in to the theater they wanted to go to and bought tickets (like I did), went to the theater to buy them directly or used an alternate web service to buy them.

 

[teiresias]

I'm disappointed the thread title wasn't "Movie that is in no way cultural event shatters pre-sell tickets records by 8x".

 

[Prompto]

It's not even the Hunger Games, the record holder was Mockingjay pt 1, which made $122M that first weekend (which is currently the 18th best opening weekend).

Hunger Games was the record holder. Mockingjay was number one only for the year 2014.

 

[kswiston]

Hunger Games was the record holder. Mockingjay was number one only for the year 2014.

Ah. I misremembered then.


It's still an odd record though. Hunger Games' midnight showing was less than half of that of Deathly Hallows Part 2 about 9 months before. Did Fandango make major marketing push in 2012?

 

[Vestal]

Wait, what's the deal with people saying "but it's opening in December."? Are they trying to say people won't go see the movie because of Christmas? I don't get it...

The primary concern of releasing a Blockbuster in December is the weather. It can be a factor in how the movie will do in regards to money. WOM IMO impacts a winter release much more since some people will weather the storm sort of speak to see something, were as in summer its not a chore to go to a theater.

 

[crazygambit]

Lucas was robbed. The money he got from Disney for Star Wars was pitifully low.

This is interesting. Do you think if this movie was directed by George Lucas the box office would be higher or lower?

I think it would be way lower, so he wasn't robbed.

 

[kswiston]

The primary concern of releasing a Blockbuster in December is the weather. It can be a factor in how the movie will do in regards to money. WOM IMO impacts a winter release much more since some people will weather the storm sort of speak to see something, were as in summer its not a chore to go to a theater.

Also, in Star Wars' December time slot, if you don't want that first day experience, there isn't the same rush to go to the theatre if the weather happens to be bad on the first Sat/Sun. A ton of people will be off work/school the following 1-2 weeks, and every theatre will be playing the film at least 20 times a day during that time frame. You can just wait a day or two and go at your convenience.

Those holiday weekdays are going to be absolutely massive though.

 

[Mushroomer25]

Wait, what's the deal with people saying "but it's opening in December."? Are they trying to say people won't go see the movie because of Christmas? I don't get it...

In the premature box office dick measuring threads between Avengers, Jurrassic World, and Star Wars - some people counted out TFA because it was releasing in December and not the summer months. Currently the biggest December weekend is held by The Hobbit at ~$80M. The conception was that its' 'not a movie season', and thus has no chance at breaking the OW record.

Frankly I think TFA could triple that Hobbit number, easily. Cracking $300M seems totally within reach.

 

[Tal Shiar Agent]

I hope my local theater isn't sold out by the time I get off work. On December 17th I'll probably have to get there by 5pm for the 7:45 2D showing if I want to get good seats (IE center and not first four rows).

 

[SmackAttack]

Wow, and some people actually think it won't do amazing because of a December release.

 

[Vault Dweller 111]

The primary concern of releasing a Blockbuster in December is the weather. It can be a factor in how the movie will do in regards to money. WOM IMO impacts a winter release much more since some people will weather the storm sort of speak to see something, were as in summer its not a chore to go to a theater.

Is this correct?

I think Decemeber is actually the best time to release big blockbusters (Titanic and Avatar both did.). The reason people talk about low opening weekends is because around that time every day is like a weekend (school is out, vacation from work.) so there isn't really a need to go to the movie on the weekend. In terms of legs though, it's a great time for a movie to release. People are just sitting around the house for weeks and there's not much to do outside, go to the movies!

Maybe I'm wrong, but this is one of the biggest movies of all time, they wouldn't purposely choose a release date that was bad for business.

 

[Afrodium]

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAHAHA

I think you're pretty safe. Jurassic World is gonna get steamrolled. It's like folks don't realize we're talking about freaking STAR WARS.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

The primary concern of releasing a Blockbuster in December is the weather. It can be a factor in how the movie will do in regards to money. WOM IMO impacts a winter release much more since some people will weather the storm sort of speak to see something, were as in summer its not a chore to go to a theater.

I think you should find a different point to argue.

I mean, your call and all...but...I think it'd be in your best interests.

 

[kswiston]

Is this correct?

I think Decemeber is actually the best time to release big blockbusters (Titanic and Avatar both did.). The reason people talk about low opening weekends is because around that time every day is like a weekend (school is out, vacation from work.) so there isn't really a need to go to the movie on the weekend. In terms of legs though, it's a great time for a movie to release. People are just sitting around the house for weeks and there's not much to do outside, go to the movies!

Maybe I'm wrong, but this is one of the biggest movies of all time, they wouldn't purposely choose a release date that was bad for business.

The date is great for business. I think he was specifically addressing those first 3 days, which are deflated in favour of the following 2 weeks for the reasons you suggested yourself.

EDIT: Maybe not.

 

[Vestal]

I think you should find a different point to argue.

Avatar is an aberration. Why else do you think no other Successful Blockbusters were released in winter?

 

[Imperial Bishop]

Avatar is done.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Avatar is an aberration.

So is Star Wars. It's a fucking cultural event. People that don't even GO to the theaters are going to go see Star Wars. Because it's Star Wars.

 

[Pagusas]

I keep forgetting that was released...and I saw it.

What happened in that movie?

Nothing of importance. It was equivalent to anime filler episodes.

 

[shintoki]

In the premature box office dick measuring threads between Avengers, Jurrassic World, and Star Wars - some people counted out TFA because it was releasing in December and not the summer months. Currently the biggest December weekend is held by The Hobbit at ~$80M. The conception was that its' 'not a movie season', and thus has no chance at breaking the OW record.

Frankly I think TFA could triple that Hobbit number, easily. Cracking $300M seems totally within reach.

Is there any reason behind your thinking? There isn't enough theaters in the country for that. Just for some fun, if we take the average ticket price of 8.60$ and divide that into 300M. You need about 35million tickets sold. So in three days, greater than 10% of the US population needs to go fit in on some 4000 screens. I don't even think that is feasibly possible.

 

[Vestal]

So is Star Wars. It's a fucking cultural event.

LOL I Agree. I am referring to the general concern of Movie studios in releasing big budget movies in winter, and the general restraint from BoxOffice Junkies in regards to giving this movie the chance to break big records.

I am of the belief that it will give Avatar a run for its money and it can possibly break OW record as long as the weather cooperates.

 

[Pagusas]

Avatar is an aberration. Why else do you think no other Successful Blockbusters were released in winter?

Titanic?

 

[MartyStu]

Man I'm starting to wonder if you will even be able to see this movie the first weekend if you don't pre-purchase tickets

The answer is no.

 

[Sephzilla]

Avatar is an aberration. Why else do you think no other Successful Blockbusters were released in winter?

December 19, 1997

 

[Vault Dweller 111]

LOL I Agree. I am referring to the general concern of Movie studios in releasing big budget movies in winter, and the general restraint from BoxOffice Junkies in regards to giving this movie the chance to break big records.

I am of the belief that it will give Avatar a run for its money and it can possibly break OW record as long as the weather cooperates.

You are wrong. Movies constantly release on or around Christmas Day.

 

[Vestal]

Titanic?

Common thread for both right? =)

I really want a Starwars movie to be at the Top, I think both Avatar and Titanic are overrated. But they both caught lightning in a bottle.

 

[kswiston]

So is Star Wars. It's a fucking cultural event. People that don't even GO to the theaters are going to go see Star Wars. Because it's Star Wars.

Which, as I said in the other thread is the exact same thing people were saying in 1999 when Episode 1 was being released. Star Wars is guaranteed to be massive, but it isn't a bulletproof film destined to beat every record in existence on the virtue of being Star Wars.

 

[Garlador]

Hmmm. Do I go on release day, with a super-excited crowd that hoops and hollers during the experience, or do I go later... MUCH later... MUCH MUCH later... with a still-super-excited crowd that's still probably hooping and hollering?

This thing is going to be massive.

Which, as I said in the other thread is the exact same thing people were saying in 1999 when Episode 1 was being released. Star Wars is guaranteed to be massive, but it isn't a bulletproof film destined to beat every record in existence on the virtue of being Star Wars.

But Phantom Menace was bad.

Imagine how much it would have done if it was GOOD.

 

[Vestal]

You are wrong. Movies constantly release on or around Christmas Day.

Outside of Titanic and Avatar, please tell me another huge blockbuster that did? Winter is usually Oscar movie season. We could technically say Hobbit, but that's about it.

 

[OrlanisWorks]

swiggity swooty i'm comin for that $200 million weekend booty

 

[Dreams-Visions]

Which, as I said in the other thread is the exact same thing people were saying in 1999 when Episode 1 was being released. Star Wars is guaranteed to be massive, but it isn't a bulletproof film destined to beat every record in existence on the virtue of being Star Wars.

Fair enough. We'll see in just 2 months time. I look forward to the discussion. Strictly speaking, I don't give a fuck if anyone on the planet goes to see it or likes it...as long as I get to see it and am happy.

 

[Garlador]

Outside of Titanic and Avatar, please tell me another huge blockbuster that did? Winter is usually Oscar movie season. We could technically say Hobbit, but that's about it.

Hobbit, Lord of the Rings, Titanic, Avatar, Chronicles of Narnia, King Kong... that's off the top of my head.

 

[LookAtMeGo]

Since I already have my tickets, I won't have to wait in a crazy line eh? I booked my seats so its not like I have to run to the back to get a seat first. I'm still bringing a lightsaber in case someone tries some shit.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Lord of the Rings movies were also December releases.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

IIRC - I believe Lucas did end up donating all of the (actual) money he got from Disney for Lucasfilm. He's said several times that he just sold it to Disney because Disney was the only company he trusted with Star Wars, and that they complied with some other requirements (leaving Kennedy in charge, Abrams would direct Episode VII, etc etc), and that he deliberately sold it to them at chump change levels.

I think Goldman Sachs did an analysis after the sale and said that the Lucasfilm rights (Lucasarts + Indiana Jones + Star Wars) should have gone for around 15 billion.

He's a pretty big philanthropist - 200+ million to USC, 1-2 billion for a museum TBD, and most of the money from the sale of Lucasfilm.

Some of that money also went to employees as holiday bonuses and (I think) for the severance packages from the Disney layoffs.

 

[borghe]

In the premature box office dick measuring threads between Avengers, Jurrassic World, and Star Wars - some people counted out TFA because it was releasing in December and not the summer months. Currently the biggest December weekend is held by The Hobbit at ~$80M. The conception was that its' 'not a movie season', and thus has no chance at breaking the OW record.

Frankly I think TFA could triple that Hobbit number, easily. Cracking $300M seems totally within reach.

no, the perception is that it's opening the week before most schools are out for the holiday. So those thursday numbers are affected by kids (a huge demo along with their parents) having school the next day, and the friday numbers are affected by kids being in school until 3pm (knocking out at least 3 standard showings)

This is why (traditionally) the only movie that's been looked at pre-summer peak is Memorial Day.. However Spider-Man was the first movie to show that a movie opening during the school year can still do major numbers.. and of course the previous record holder (Avengers) did so over the same weekend..

so... yeah.. traditionally movies outside of summer are hamstrung by school being in service. but if Avengers can hit $204M with the same criteria, technically so could a movie like star wars.

we'll see.

 

[Rootbeer]

outselling its next best competitor by 8x...

not to be downplayed how major that is! I've been buying movie tickets online pretty much since you first were able to, and the demand was really off the charts this time. I hope they can keep up the momentum with future films.

I'm expecting a big drop in demand for Rogue One (despite that I'm equally excited about it), but rather Episode VIII can surpass it is the real test.

 

[Vestal]

Hobbit, Lord of the Rings, Titanic, Avatar, Chronicles of Narnia, King Kong... that's off the top of my head.

yet you look at the Boxoffice numbers and none of them outside of Avatar and Titanic made it to the top 5. Yet Summer releases have been trading blows in the top 5 forever.


However maybe its an old wives tale. Its the myth created by Hollywood itself? But data says otherwise. Outside of the top two grossing movies(Titanic/Avatar) the next winter opening is ROTK at 25.

 

[XiaNaphryz]

no, the perception is that it's opening the week before most schools are out for the holiday. So those thursday numbers are affected by kids (a huge demo along with their parents) having school the next day, and the friday numbers are affected by kids being in school until 3pm (knocking out at least 3 standard showings)

This is why (traditionally) the only movie that's been looked at pre-summer peak is Memorial Day.. However Spider-Man was the first movie to show that a movie opening during the school year can still do major numbers.. and of course the previous record holder (Avengers) did so over the same weekend..

so... yeah.. traditionally movies outside of summer are hamstrung by school being in service. but if Avengers can hit $204M with the same criteria, technically so could a movie like star wars.

we'll see.

There's also the weather factor. An inopportune heavy winter storm can deter some people from going out to watch something in December. May also explain how the movies that have done well in that time of year have lower peaks but longer legs, especially if the other films in that time span aren't as interesting.