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Starfield passes 10 million players
- Thread starter Little Chicken
- Start date
Elysium44
Banned
The inference that it is a RELATIVE failure due to the cost of buying Bethesda and the development costs, and the sky high expectations.
We have figures from various places, and can infer revenue from things like physical sales / chart data and Steam numbers, as well as Microsoft's released player numbers and their comments in emails about game pass etc. generally. (Yes I know the game isn't only on Steam but we can do some basic extrapolation from the numbers we have.)
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Flutta
Banned
THE DUCK
voted poster of the decade by bots
I think it's the kind of game with great legs and very good broad appeal. It will help boost gamepass and sell consoles over time.
Also reading comments from players just finishing 50 hour plus runs now (not everyone can play a ton right away) and some saying its just amazing for them. So at least some people love it.
Also reading comments from players just finishing 50 hour plus runs now (not everyone can play a ton right away) and some saying its just amazing for them. So at least some people love it.
What do expectations have to do with the cost of a movie? What does the cost of buying a movie studio have to do with whether one of its films breaks even?
You don't just get to move the goalposts whenever it suits you. We're talking about the movie model and whether Starfield was/will be able to make back its costs. So you need to provide an estimated budget for Starfield, current estimated sales revenues, and projected future sales revenues.
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Elysium44
Banned
Looks like this isn't a good faith conversation as I've already answered all your points, so I'll end it here.
So you said: "I'm applying the same standard which is applied to movies. Unlike the games industry, movies are transparent in their costs and box office takings so we know whether a film made back its budget or not, and how much profit it made"
So then I, in good faith, asked you to provide estimates for the revenue and budget for Starfield so that we could apply this same standard. And your response is to accuse me of being a bad faith actor and stop the discussion! Good stuff.
Superayate
Member
Imagine using the retail sales to say if a game is tanking when 75% of your own devices are without disk, the other market part fully digital and the game proposed day 1 in a subscription service. That's a little dumb honestly...
yazenov
Member
Second week drop:
Starfield: -87%
FALLOUT 4: -80%
Final Fantasy 16: - 78%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim: -62%
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pasterpl
Member
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
Street Fighter V was exclusive. Is that the same as buying all of Capcom?
On "learning lessons" — both Nintendo and Sony went through hardships and learned lessons. That's the point. Microsoft has not and their brand continues to suffer for it. Having more studios than Sony is obviously irrelevant, since we've yet to see any real fruit of that labor. Meanwhile, Insomniac continues to put out hit after hit. That's actually not a good thing for you to highlight.
And no, I don't believe Xbox leaving gaming would be a disaster at all. The hardware. Software would remain.
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BootsLoader
Banned
It's a nice game overall so why not?
It will probably be forgotten in two months from now.
It will probably be forgotten in two months from now.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
I don't think so at all. Especially when the creation kit and official mod support, even on consoles, goes live. This is going to be in the gaming circles for a while.
SportsFan581
Member
Yeah, I think it is safe to say that this one will have some legs to it.
Xbox is a nearly all digital platform as is PC, the boxed sales don't mean much for it (or any other game in 2023) in the grand scheme of things.
Maxwell Jacob Friedman
leads to fear. Fear leads to xbox.
Im sorry are boxed sales charts still not sales...?
BootsLoader
Banned
I hope so, but I'll doubt it will be Skyrim level. People are bored from game skins nowadays, and starfield really feels like a Skyrim/Fallout skin.
pasterpl
Member
They are sales, but they don't indicate much, at least not as much as they used to, especially in market like the UK where approx 90% are digital sales.
Almost 90% of games sold in UK in 2022 were digital - ERA
Physical game sales fell 4.5% last year, the digital entertainment and retail association says.
www.bbc.co.uk
Kupfer
Member
I can't quite figure it out.They are sales, but they don't indicate much, at least not as much as they used to, especially in market like the UK where approx 90% are digital sales.
Almost 90% of games sold in UK in 2022 were digital - ERA
Physical game sales fell 4.5% last year, the digital entertainment and retail association says.
There is obviously no differentiation between games that are available both physically and digitally and content that is only available digitally.
If 30% of sales are due to mobile apps, the ratio would shift back in favor of physical sales if the focus were exclusively on games that can be purchased both digitally and physically.
Furthermore, it is not clear whether purely digital add-on content is also counted, which I assume is the case if they also include mobile apps.
I think the ratio of full-fledged games that you can buy both digitally and in stores will be more in the 60/40 - 70/30 range
graywolf323
Member
same, I got to the first major city and shelved it until there's been some more patches or the community fixes things with modsI guess im one of themI installed it, played a couple hours then uninstalled it. Ran like shit on my 2070 super. Will probably play when I upgrade though
Thirty7ven
Banned
They are sales, but they don't indicate much, at least not as much as they used to, especially in market like the UK where approx 90% are digital sales.
Almost 90% of games sold in UK in 2022 were digital - ERA
Physical game sales fell 4.5% last year, the digital entertainment and retail association says.
It will have dropped heavily on the digital side too. Starfield was always going to be a front loaded release, doubly so because of Gamepass.
What's boring is seeing people like you trying to discredit the data when it suits your pressing needs.
The article also states that 30% of the games sold are mobile. So yeah, let's ignore that too.
pasterpl
Member
While I said
it is funny how some a sticking to box/offline sales numbers as it is some ultimate indicator how the game did. Let's be fair and look at some facts; (based on the recent leaks) 75% of Xbox Series audience is digital only (series s owners), pc sales are 100% digital and we are discussing drop in sales in a country where 90% of games sold are digital. I don't have to discredit anything, this is math my friend and based on the above facts the drop discussed in this thread is not even statistically relevant.
SportsFan581
Member
Obviously the sales have dropped since launch, that can be seen in the Steam sale chart and others. That is somewhat expected since other games are getting released and there is no multi-player component to Starfield.
That doesn't indicate much at all about how the title will perform in comparison to other Bethesda titles. Skyrim sales declined as well (as has been noted here) and look at the number of copies they've sold of that one. The depth and possibilities these type of sandbox games offer is what keeps more and more people coming into them as the years go on.
With Gamepass in the mix, sales numbers aren't as relevant for them anyway, if millions play via the subscription they would be thrilled with that.
That doesn't indicate much at all about how the title will perform in comparison to other Bethesda titles. Skyrim sales declined as well (as has been noted here) and look at the number of copies they've sold of that one. The depth and possibilities these type of sandbox games offer is what keeps more and more people coming into them as the years go on.
With Gamepass in the mix, sales numbers aren't as relevant for them anyway, if millions play via the subscription they would be thrilled with that.
JackMcGunns
Member
Gavon West
Spread's Cheeks for Intrusive Ads
Not all, no. Some paid the $100 price (like myself) Some are GP subscriptions. You're still paying though. No one who is playing Starfield is playing for free.
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Salty Popsicle
Banned
A smaller and smaller slice of the overall pie as the years go by.
SEGAvangelist
Member
I wonder how much of the more recent massive drops are due to many of the physical copies being special editions. It would make sense of Starfield and FFXVI dropping so much even though the boxes copies weren't all that high to begin with.
Second week drop:
Starfield: -87%
FALLOUT 4: -80%
Final Fantasy 16: - 78%
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim: -62%
Maxwell Jacob Friedman
leads to fear. Fear leads to xbox.
Didnt steam sales and player count drop as well? Or is that metric not allowed either?
Not calling you biased, but do you really believe that or is that brand-optimism? I do not doubt that SF will be played by the Bethesda faithful for some time on, but with no major changes to the core of the game, I really struggle to see why anyone would bother with this game over the older, but more immersive, games in the library.
. . .the only thing I see saving this game for long term engagement is if modders somehow do what Bethesda clearly couldn't - and that's make all the open space (or a significantly engageable portion of it) meaningful.
adamsapple
Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
The older games didn't become immersive 2 months after launch either, the mod scene and their continued endurance took years, the same's gonna be the case here, at least that's how I see it happening.
graywolf323
Member
no it's okay, he worked hard for that tag, you can call him biased
arkhamguy123
Banned
You know its low
I played the absolute shit out of FO4 when it released (I got copies on PS4 and PC when I found out about the NZ trick): without question that world sucked you in far quicker than STARFIELD does. Like it's not even close. Like, how many reviewers were "Oh, well, it's a slow burn, just wait until hour ten!" It didn't take hour ten to get me sold on the Commonwealth. The content density between exiting your original vault and saving the Minutemen in a setpiece culminating in a Deathclaw fight - like I experienced NOTHING like that in SF.
. . .as for the mod scene: maybe. I don't know about anyone else, but the core of FO4 was still interesting to me, which made the mod additions worth returning for. This is obviously subjective, but the core world of SF is leagues less interesting than FO4. There isn't interesting stuff stuck into the nooks and crannies of the world. The game looks amazing and modelers are going to have a field day, but I feel like when it comes to more involved modding you have to fix the main problem with SF - content and immersion density - before anything else and that's really only something Todd and Co. can do (if they even can).
twilo99
Member
Best 4/10 I've ever played. As far as 4/10s go, it's a 10/10.
Yes, absolutely incredible for a 4/10 .. it's actually making me re-think my approach altogether, I don't think I'll be playing anything over 6/10 from now on, it's just not worth the inevitable disappointment
twilo99
Member
There must like 20 of you out there at most..
Gavon West
Spread's Cheeks for Intrusive Ads
Yeah. Its weird how we're taking boxed sales declining as some sort of "gotcha" moment when Xbox is primarily digital anyway. What are we even doing right now? Just bizarre..They are sales, but they don't indicate much, at least not as much as they used to, especially in market like the UK where approx 90% are digital sales.
Almost 90% of games sold in UK in 2022 were digital - ERA
Physical game sales fell 4.5% last year, the digital entertainment and retail association says.
ZehDon
Banned
While I certainly applaud anyone who brings up my posts from months ago, I'll note that of the game in question - The Last of Us 2 - I've said: "... I feel that even 10 million sales must still have underperformed. Sony' expectations couldn't have been half of the first game's total sales..." while adding: "With that said, anyone floating this as some kind of failure is really reaching. 10 million is a massive achievement for any game, and would easily render TLOUII a very profitable investment for Sony.". I do appreciate you only referring to the platform holder's name though, inferring that the platform and not the game is the qualifier for me.
Except that Starfield released B2P on Xbox consoles, Windows PC, and Steam while being available on Game Pass on day one on consoles and off of Steam. This is a far cry from TLOU2, which had precisely one platform and was only B2P. To declare TLOU2 an underperformer, I used the metrics Sony itself provided two years after the game came out. To declare Starfield a failure, people are deliberately dismissing Microsoft's metrics and are instead inferring all kinds of numbers to paint the picture they want two weeks after it came out. We need to be careful how we use the data available, because it doesn't always tell us everything. For example, I enjoy shitting on Halo Infinite, and on Steam, Halo Infinite is a fucking embarrassment. Yet, it actually continues to hold onto a not-great-but-not-disastrous position on the Xbox console's most-played list. So, I stopped crapping on Halo Infinite - it's doing OK, just not where I was looking.
Of the metrics we have available, there's nothing that says Starfield underperformed, disappointed, or failed. That may change moving forward, but right now, all signs tell us Bethesda made a hit game and millions of people are enjoying it.
DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
Yes, you said it underperformed multiple times on this forum.
The reason why I'm using this as an example is because...
1. The budget of Starfield probably exceeded the other game.
2. We have a metric you used in which a game underperforms.
So despite saying it's a massive achievement, you still believe it underperformed.
How does this relate to this game?
We've been on this forum long enough to know what makes a game successful and that's making the budget back along with the marketing cost. It's estimated that the game has over a $200 million dollar budget and is likely to exceed that amount by a lot due to delays and the long development cycle. You never used Sony's metrics in two years, that was your own personal assumption.
Starfield Reportedly Had A Budget Of $200 Million And A 500-Member Dev Team
As per a credible industry person, Starfield had a budget of over $200 million, and a development team spanning 500 members.
exputer.com
This is different because we're talking about a game that's on Game Pass and it's obviously going to hurt retail sales.
The argument Elysium made regarding Starfield.
If you believe Game 1 underperformed despite making back its budget, then you should believe Game 2 failed if it didn't make its budget back.
We know making putting the game on Game Pass and removing it from PS5 would hurt sales, so they're going to rely heavily on PC sales and Game Pass to make up the difference. The metric we have now is that the PC sales are probably not strong enough to cover the sales. We also know it took longer than Forza Horizon 5 to reach 10 million players.
So the point is that it may not be headed in the right direction when it comes to making their money back.
Don't take this as me sh**ing on the game because Microsoft knew they wanted to use this game to boost subscribers for Game Pass and sacrifice retail sales. But if it's not boosting subscriber counts then the game will probably fail to meet those expectations and it should be based on your own metrics you were using before.
ZehDon
Banned
Point one is debatable, but for point two, we're gonna hold on to that because you're being disingenuous:
Wrong. Sony declared TLOU2 sold 10 million copies. Sony declared TLOU sold over 20 million copies. TLOU2 therefore sold 50% of TLOU. These are the metrics I used to declare TLOU2 as an underperformer. Sony have, to the best of my knowledge, never officially confirmed the budgets for TLOU or TLOU2. We have pretty solid numbers, but without official confirmation, it's impossible to reliably use the data. Hence why I didn't.
This isn't the metric I used, because as I highlighted above, we don't know what the budgets are. I used sales relative to prior instalment as the metric, because it's the only official numbers we have. Your "You said A, therefore A is always true" doesn't really work when I really said "C" but you're pretending I said "A" and then making blind assumptions so you can say "See, you must think Starfield is a failure". Once again, this just emphasizes my posts in this thread: everything must be spun to paint Starfield as a failure. Starfield must fail. You'll note I even highlighted this non-sense relative to the same TLOU2 you're basing your "point" on: for some people, TLOU2 must fail, and as I've highlighted multiple times, it objectively didn't.
Actually, we don't have metrics on PC sales to make that claim. Xbox Windows Store sales - the only place its available via Game Pass on PC - would also factor in, as would Xbox console sales. I mentioned Halo Infinite for a reason: off of Steam, Halo Infinite is actually - surprisingly - doing quite well, despite its embarrassing performance on Steam. You're making the same mistake again. But, if you want to correct me that's terrific - just provide a clear breakdown of Starfield's total sales numbers, complete with platform split, and then include its attributable Game Pass revenue generation, contrasted to projected B2P sales on PS5. I'm sure you have these numbers readily available.
There is nothing available to us today that even remotely suggests this. You're literally proving my point with this non-sense.
My metric, as covered, was to compare TLOU2 sales to the TLOU sales using info directly from Sony. To what game should we compare Starfield? What numbers are we using? Where are getting these numbers? You also jumped from "making their money back" to "boosting subscriber counts" as the metric. Which just emphasizes my point: moving the goal posts. If Starfield didn't fail A, then B is the real metric. If it didn't fail B, then C is the real metric. If it didn't fail C, then D is the real metric. And on, and on, and on. Because the game must fail. Starfield must fail.
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DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
I'm not. I say it might not be headed in the right direction, which clearly indicates that I'm waiting for more data, but if the game is in fact exceeded the budget, then it is not headed in the right direction. My argument is contingent on more information which you clearly ignored.
Wrong. You used Sony's metric to gauge success. That is not Sony's metric for success, all you did was compare two different sales.
You also failed to mention specifics, such as bundles and the original title being released and on the market for longer. The Original was inflated with sales because it was bundled for more than 6 years. This means Sony was giving the game away for free.
If it wasn't then you wouldn't use 10m vs. 20m when the game was market for much longer. This is the pure definition of being disingenuous and ignoring many factors when comparing two stats. This is almost like people comparing 10 million player count to actual sales.
I never said we had PC sales, I'm telling you the stats we have so far.
You can't claim anyone is being disingenuous when you have a habit of ignoring very important stats and metrics. I'm bringing up information right now, and you're quick to make excuses.
You use 10m vs. 20 million. 20 million number took more than 3 years longer to achieve and it was bundled for 6+ years.
Remember, you're the one touting making fair comparisons.
You didn't apply this to your own metrics. You're taking the base number and doing a 1 for 1 comparison when it's way more to it than that.
The point here is this.
We know how Microsoft feels about the growth of Game Pass over the next 4 years. If a game like Starfield isn't boosting subscriber counts, along with games like Forza, then it's going to be harder for lesser games to make that much of an impact later down the line.
They may be able to achieve this with the ABK deal, but even that may not be enough to double the count.
If the game fails to make its money back, then it's not failing because it's a bad game, it's failed because Microsoft took the risk to boost Game Pass.
ZehDon
Banned
Then why are you even posting? Continue to wait for more data.
I didn't claim I used "Sony's metric". I specifically said I used Sony's data and my metric. If you insist on replying, please at least ready my posts.
I used total sales figures announced by Sony. I expect a sequel to one of the highest rated and most beloved games of all time on a larger install base made by a beloved and premier development studio to at least equal its predecessor's lifetime sales in less time unless the game reviews terribly. TLOU2 has universal critical acclaim, and took home hundreds upon hundreds of GOTY awards.
When you actually post some, I might have the opportunity to ignore them. You're not saying anything. I'll quote myself: "To what game should we compare Starfield? What numbers are we using? Where are getting these numbers?" Demonstrate in black and white how you've arrived at the conclusion that Starfield is failing.
Comparing sales figures between two games in the same series released under virtually identical scenarios is about a 1:1 as you're ever gonna get. Your attempt to dismiss this extremely fair comparison in this specific thread, in this specific context, is laughably ironic.
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mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
I clearly said the data we have so far may not be going in the right direction.
I read your post, I was in the conversation.
Here's the comment I'm referring to.
You used the metric of sales, NOT to determine if a game is either a success or a failure. That's the point.
The oldest metric to use is making money back from their investment and then starting to turn a profit.
Wrong.
The original had the largest install base.
84 million PS3 consoles sold. It was announced that the first game sold more than 20 million, and that was in 2019 when almost or just over 100m PS4 units were sold. Both games benefited from BC on the PS5. Still, you ignore the most important metric.... and that's bundles. It was shipped with PS4 consoles at a high rate.
It's not a 1:1 comparison. lol
I pointing this out and you're still ignoring important data. 1 game was bundled for 6+ years and the other one wasn't. People know the original game was inflated due to bundles, the game thing as Uncharted 4. God of War Ragnarok might achieve 20 million sales faster than God of War 2018, but we know God of War Ragnarok was bundled with PS5 consoles for months.
The same thing might happen with Spider-Man, but in reverse. Spider-Man PS4 was released with a 199.99 slim bundle and sold 14 million in less than a year. If it takes longer to reach 14m, then we know why.
All I'm doing is bringing up stats and you're trying your best to deflect them.
I'm not going to derail this thread any further, but we know the metrics and data you're using aren't fair.
ZehDon
Banned
You're rambling more about TLOU2 than discussing Starfield. Last time I repeat myself before we're done: "To what game should we compare Starfield? What numbers are we using? Where are getting these numbers. Demonstrate in black and white how you've arrived at the conclusion that Starfield is failing."
I'm using the sales figures of Sony's games as provided by Sony. If that's your definition "unfair" then you're being more than merely disingenuous.
ThatOneGrunt
Member
Jesus christ.... some of you guys are so fucking salty.
Rhazer Fusion
Member
I think it will have legs on PC/Steam for quite some time especially with mods and updates, but I don't know about the longevity on the XBOX.
DForce
NaughtyDog Defense Force
I used the other game as an example to show how you clearly ignore data. I called it unfair because you think the two figures are comparable when they're not. One game had inflated sales, the other one did not. This was to show you're not being truthful when reporting data. Just under 2 years to reach 10 million versus over 6 to reach 20 million. This is not anything close to a 1-to-1 comparison and you know it.
This is why I bringing it up: You cannot be truthful or even trusted when it comes to analyzing data.
I said before that we have the concurrent player count, budget, UK/EU chart, and total player counts as data.
- The concurrent player count is lower than major titles. This is important because the game is no longer on the PlayStation console and the install base is not that big on the Xbox Series consoles. This means it needs to make up ground somewhere.
- The UK\EU is still early but we will find out more later.
- We know the budget at least exceeded 200m
- Forza reached 10 million players faster, which probably means it's going to take Starfield longer to reach the milestone. This is very important because even though the player count is high, it may not drive the subscriber count as needed.
This is a gamble MS is willing to try. They're sacrificing sales for long-term benefits and it may not help that much. I said before this is preliminary data
Let me remind you, when Forza Horizon 5 launched, they advertised $1 subscriptions.
Here's How You Can Play ‘Forza Horizon 5’ For Just $1 US Dollar
You definitely want to take Microsoft's new open-world racing game for a spin.
www.forbes.com
This was not the case for Starfield.
This is the gamble Microsoft is willing to take. This is why many people see this subscription service as a risk. There was clearly some concern in the emails leaked. They're sacrificing retail sales for Game Pass growth.
You can still argue, but I'm done. Anyone can see what's going on here lol.
ZehDon
Banned
Which titles? By how much? Where are these numbers coming from?
We've got two weeks-ish worth of data, where we've seen an 87% decrease in sales WOW in the UK. How have you accommodated for Game Pass eating into sales to contextualise this performance?
Was this number officially confirmed?
You're shifting metrics again; is the metric of success "making its budget" or driving subscriber count? If it's the former, why are we talking subscriber counts? If it's the latter, why did you berate me with that nonsense above?
I'm not sure I understand why you've included this - is this explaining the above point? Horizon had more players because you could play it for a dollar?... Let me remind you, when Forza Horizon 5 launched, they advertised $1 subscriptions.
Here's How You Can Play ‘Forza Horizon 5’ For Just $1 US Dollar
You definitely want to take Microsoft's new open-world racing game for a spin.
This was not the case for Starfield...
Absolutely: Starfield must fail.
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RoadHazard
Gold Member
No, I just think it sounds kinda low. TOTK SOLD 10 million copies in three days or something.
What is the total number of concurrent players across Xbox, Xbox on PC, and Steam?