What are the principles that your estimations are based on? The principles of needing them to fit your narrative?
You can't possibly think that people are stupid enough to just swallow your horseshit numbers as viable, right?
In what universe is the average number of Steam accounts per user over two? You're saying there's a ton of people with four or five Steam accounts? Just for giggles? Because I haven't heard of anyone with more than one. Except that one guy in the Steam thread that couldn't possibly fathom having a bad game on his account so he abandoned the whole thing and started fresh.
You're actually postulating that people have multiple Steam accounts that they regularly log into during the month? Based on what?
EDIT: Well, except for Spekkeh above. I couldn't fathom a reason why though.
I don't believe one would be "stupid" to accept that the average number of Steam accounts made per user is close to two, do you? I'm not sure what "narrative" you believe I've crafted, care to explain? Steam
is growing, I use Steam myself almost every day and have been around to see the impressive work Valve has done to overhaul every aspect of their platform since the implementation of the Steam community in 2007. What's even more impressive to consider is the growing percentage of revenue Valve is bringing in from micro transactions through the Steam Market, funded by deposits into the Wallet. Relative to actual purchases of games, especially during those weeks when there are no releases from a major publisher, I would propose to you that the split between revenue from games purchased through the Store and funds deposited into the wallet to be used in the Market is about equal.
Anyway, lots of DOTA2 and CSGO players make extra accounts. Cheaters tend to make extra accounts too. Then there are extra accounts created during seasonal sale events (Winter 2011, etc). I'm sure if you've been around Steam for an appreciable length of time you've heard of all those bot accounts, which run off of scripts and are mostly known for sending phishing links, although there are also legitimate ones, like TrashBot. Last year there were also alternate accounts being made for the purpose of exploiting the Steam market, at a time prior to the implementation of buy-orders. You may very well have just one account, I assure you that there are indeed a "ton" of people with four or five accounts, though.
Addressing your last paragraph Valve has reported almost exponential growth since Steam launched. And shows no signs at all of slowing down. And given that there are reportedly
711 million PC gamers in the world 100 million would be just 14% of the total market which leaves a huge market for potential growth. Also the PC gamer pie
is growing so there isn't any worries on that front either.
Then Valve is merely engaging in theatrics with such wording because there's no exponential growth, just growth. This is no different than the "monopoly" term that was thrown around a few pages back, Valve doesn't have a monopoly on the PC market. If any one company were to have a monopoly, it would be Riot Entertainment, but they don't really have one either. I'm also skeptical of the 711 million individuals on the planet who are privileged enough to own a computer. I suspect a large percent of that estimate is of easterners that play exclusively at LAN centers or in Internet Cafes, and are thus less likely to invest financially in gaming. Also, a quote from the GamesIndustry article explains "core gamers seem to be willing to spend more money than ever," so wouldn't such a thing explain the increase in revenue? That makes sense to me, just look at the micro transaction money being made by Riot, Valve, Blizzard, etc. Such an explanation doesn't require more customers, just that existing customers spend more money, and I suspect that's exactly what will happen with Steam. There's no getting around it, the PC gaming community must grow if Steam is to continue growing at the rate it has in the last decade. At this point it's safe to say almost all current PC gamers are aware of Steam and have already made an account if they ever will, Steam's growth will now have to come from new PC gamers, even with increased spending from existing gamers.