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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

Yah you already seen that, it will continue moving closer towards the IPO price and then shoot up. You can buy now and average down but make sure the company is worth your buy.

Their earnings report wasn't all that bad if you subtract the stock based compensation. Their devs are cream of the crop, and they moved away from Silicon Valley to Denver for a reason. With IBM on board re-selling Foundry, and new civilian contracts I think will move up in the long run. My investment horizon is well past their year, or event next. Even at 60% margin (80% would be better but I'm sure there's customizations for most companies), they're still on track.
 
Damn Morgan Stanley upgraded FSR after I set my covered calls, I'm already out $2+ on upside profit, the premiums on those calls almost cover that though. If the share price goes much higher then I'll have missed some profit, but only if the shares get called away. Still have a couple weeks left, though I feel like irrational exuberance is going to take this to $40 in the short term.
 
Day traded FSR.

Thank you very much for the best P&L of my day and goodbye.
Still holding from a $13 average. This will probably rise and fall a couple times before I really want to be in for good. There's no production car rolling off the line until late 2022.
 
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GHG

Gold Member
Still holding from a $13 average. This will probably rise and fall a couple times before I really want to be in for good. There's no production car rolling off the line until late 2022.

I got in at 24.5 and got out at 26.5.

No way I'm holding an EV company like this at those entry prices. IMO it's a couple of years off being worth what it's trading at right now but the Internet will do it's thing.

No doubt this will be hyped as the next tesla killer for the next couple of weeks, will get pumped to 40 and then there will be a whole new generation of dumbfounded bagholders.
 

shoegaze

Member
Watching that convergence. I posted something like this last week. S&P dividend yield and 10 year treasury yields are getting closer


bDj5VU0.jpg
But even if treasury yields get higher, you can't compound the returns on bonds, you only get a return on principal, indexed or not. Would it be bought only for the security bonds offer? Just trying to wrap my head around the psychology.
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
But even if treasury yields get higher, you can't compound the returns on bonds, you only get a return on principal, indexed or not. Would it be bought only for the security bonds offer? Just trying to wrap my head around the psychology.

I think you can re invest in bond mutuals. But this graph being applied in that sense, it’s just a take on valuations. This is a rare convergence.

A change in the risk free rate changes the discount rate by x amount.
 

n0razi

Member
Seriously fuck PLTR, fuck GME and fuck all these other meme stocks.

I've somehow even managed to get lumbered with a meme ETF in ARKK.

Edit: PLTR is finished... Fuck me.


Yup... I dont care if I make a few thousand on a meme stock when my entire portfolio is down 2-5%
 

mango drank

Member
Been wondering this for a while: why does the graph of a moving average (MA) line change values when you change the date range of the graph? Shouldn't they be the same regardless of the date range? I thought this was a Yahoo Finance bug or something, but TradingView does it too. Do I not understand how MAs work in the first place? E.g., look at the MAs on this 1-year graph ...
qgdAITz.jpg


... and then look at the "same" MAs on this 2-year graph. The values of the MA lines are completely different:
kbgXQD9.jpg
 
Seriously fuck PLTR, fuck GME and fuck all these other meme stocks.

I've somehow even managed to get lumbered with a meme ETF in ARKK.

Edit: PLTR is finished... Fuck me.
One more thought. They’re re-investing in themselves now so they can capitalize in the future. Those are when you’ll get your multiples. I’d be grabbing shares hand over fist and check in 10 years from now. They’re pulling an Amazon.
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
it’s a moving average. Meaning it’s takes the average of the previous days prices. So 20 days average prices etc. Your trend line along your stock prices become smoothen out as you go further out.
 
Hindenburg shorted SOS today and sent shares tumbling. This isn’t the first company they’ve done this to. Mara and riot were also shorted by them and they bounced back.
 
Hindenburg shorted SOS today and sent shares tumbling. This isn’t the first company they’ve done this to. Mara and riot were also shorted by them and they bounced back.
They’re fucking called Hindenburg and they short stocks. This is the despicable shit that got GME started.

Whats next? A hedge fund named “we’ll short you straight to hell?”
 
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They were manipulated down to their support levels in the last hour of trading.

So the stimulus got approved. What impact (if any) are we expecting this to have on the markets next week?
At first the markets liked them. Now they seem like they’ll hate them because of the future inflation they might cause.

edit: short term, a bunch of robinhooders will spend it on stonks.
 
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ManofOne

Plus Member
WARREN BUFFET WARNING ON BONDS

Warren Buffett warned that debt investors faced a “bleak future” days after a sell-off pummelled government bonds and sent reverberations through global stock markets.
The 90-year-old chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway told shareholders in his closely followed annual letter that it was best to eschew the fixed income market, in which the company is itself a large player.
“Fixed-income investors worldwide — whether pension funds, insurance companies or retirees — face a bleak future,” he wrote. “Competitors, for both regulatory and credit-rating reasons, must focus on bonds. And bonds are not the place to be these days.”

Treasury prices slid dramatically last week, driven by shifts from investors who see faster economic growth taking hold. Optimism around a global expansion has also rekindled concerns about a spike in inflation, however nascent, and the prospect that central banks may have to adjust their stimulative policies.
Many investors had moved to adjust their portfolios before the sell-off in Treasuries this week, buying lower-quality debt that offered higher returns. Buffett warned on Saturday that the move by insurers and bond buyers to “juice the pathetic returns now available by shifting their purchases to obligations backed by shaky borrowers” was a concern.

“Risky loans, however, are not the answer to inadequate interest rates,” he said. “Three decades ago, the once-mighty savings and loan industry destroyed itself, partly by ignoring that maxim.”

 
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Honey Bunny

Member
They’re fucking called Hindenburg and they short stocks. This is the despicable shit that got GME started.

Whats next? A hedge fund named “we’ll short you straight to hell?”
They were right about Workhorse. An ARK stock, btw.



 
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ManofOne

Plus Member
Last week bump on Thursday I said it looked unconvincing b/c of the a few economic factors including 10 year yield but today looks different. Yield looking to be tapering a bit. I expect by mid Q2 it will start its run again.
 

12Goblins

Lil’ Gobbie
MAMA ECONOMY
MAKE ME UNDERSTAND
ALL THE NUMBERS
WHY DADDY'S ON A WELFARE PLAN
TURNING THIRTY FORTY FIFTY
GOTTA MOVE IN WITH MY PARENTS
AND THE STOCKS GO UP
BUT THE JOBS DISAPPEAR
 

ManofOne

Plus Member

Cathie Wood’s new competition, First Trust files for Innovation Leaders ETF with SEC​


  • Innovation exchange traded funds have been a swelling topic of discussion, thanks to the spark by Cathie Wood and Ark Invest. First Trust, is the newest firm jumping in the tank, filing a preliminary prospectus with the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission for the First Trust Innovation Leaders ETF.
  • The objective of the fund will be to achieve long-term capital appreciation and the ETF will invest the bulk “80%” of its assets into the following assets: “Fund will invest its net assets in common stock and depository receipts issued by U.S. and non-U.S. companies that offer exposure to emerging opportunities across sectors of innovation. This includes, but is not limited to, companies that are poised to benefit from the development of new products or services, technological improvements and/or advancements in scientific research related to digital transformation, advanced medicine, networks, cognitive computing, and e-commerce.” This is in accordance to the fund prospectus.
  • With another fund joining the innovation party how are investors to understand the difference in holdings amongst all these ETFs. Below is a table with popular innovation-based exchange traded funds where one can see the overlaps.
 

ManofOne

Plus Member

Goldman says higher yields are coming after 'tantrum': At the Open​


  • Treasury bond yields are stabilizing today after last week's breakneck run and late plunge.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield is down 1 basis point to 1.45%, putting it back down below the dividend yield of the S&P (
  • Goldman Sachs thiks the pause is justified and then will move to a further selloff in bonds and rise in rates.
  • "Recent yield increases reflect repricing of both expectations and real risk premia; expect near-term consolidation, but resumption of selloff on growth and inflation strength," analysts led by Praveen Korapaty wrote.
  • "On the whole, the improved backdrop and upgrades to our economic views should translate to higher yields than our current forecasts. Yields have closed in on our year-end forecasts (1.5% for UST 10s) much earlier than we anticipated; we see upside risks from here, and are therefore placing the forecasts under review."
  • The savings built up by Americans could be a big trigger for another rise in rates.



[*]



Good. I want some time to unwind some positions.

Check above, Goldman saying the same thing. A tapering and then another rise which could cause markets to panic as yield approaches 1.75%. If auctions continue to go badly in the wrong direction. I expect the FED to step in at some point.
 
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ManofOne

Plus Member
Take this time to be reminded of the on some of the on-coming market adjustment risk

1) Rising yields - the expectation is that inflation expectations will eat away expected bond returns. So according to liquidity preference theory based on the speculative demand for money, if expectations for the future have interest rates rising, then people will sell bonds and hold cash to re invest at a higher rate. Thus yields are rising in accordance the prior market action since the supply of bonds is greater than demand, then yields will rise.

2) Convergence of S&P dividend yield and 10 year treasury yield - with stocks becoming more frothy, dividend yields will fall as stocks become more expensive, S&P 500 dividend yield is nearly at 1.5% alongside the 10 year treasury 1.5%. So markets may selloff stocks to opt for a risk free asset that could yield the same. However, note the market dynamic here is a bit unique, in that inflation expectations are building so upside for both assets are limited. This places pressure on capital gains on stocks, so be selective going forward.

GTmQFT2.png



If core inflation crosses 2.5%, bonds and equities seem to share the same correlated behavior


stock-bond-correlation-5.png



3) Inflation expectations - keep watching inflation expectation going forward a good measure of this is the 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate which is the difference between the interest rate on a 10-Year treasury and the interest rate on a 10-Year inflation-protected bond, you get a market estimate of how much inflation is expected in the future
 

Delf

Banned
CRMD news dropped that they didn't get FDA approval.
Went down over 50% in 5min...

Some people werent very lucky..
Just watched a guy lose 200k in 10min..
 
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StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
The crazy thing Ive noticed lately is the US/Can arbitrage can be wacky where the stock prices dont go up or down with the currency effect of roughly 1.3x. Instead it might only be 1.1x

Blackberry US and Can are like this. So is Lightspeed.

If you've got lots of money, you can trade the currency exchange difference in hope it plays catch up and make a few %. For example rght now, Blackberry US is up 83 cents and BB Toronto is up only 90 cents. The current exchange rate is 1.27x
 
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