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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

GHG

Member
i think they will shrug off the news unless its a HUGE MISS. If it's over 4.0% then that's a massive miss. However if it comes under 3.6% or close to it then that would work for markets.

As long as it's nothing crazy then TQQQ for me tomorrow (and tomorrow only).

Going to look at things on more of a day to day basis for a while until the market decides what it's going to do rather than continue to build out my long term positions (or add to my bags).
 

zeorhymer

Member
Not only that, there's effectively a load of money printing machines out there in the form of crypto miners.
The goal was to print out an X amount of crypto and that's it. Just like having a finite amount of gold. Compared to being able to print out money on the fly. Since everyone and their mom is making a new type of currency, at some point, it's going to be just as worthless as cash unless a culling of currencies happen.
 
The goal was to print out an X amount of crypto and that's it. Just like having a finite amount of gold. Compared to being able to print out money on the fly. Since everyone and their mom is making a new type of currency, at some point, it's going to be just as worthless as cash unless a culling of currencies happen.

A lot of people will lose out on crypto, others will get rich. Some cryptos have a reason you would use them, or hold them. Some of them have a limited number of coins that will come into existence, others don't. Some of them offer privacy for financial transactions, others don't. Even among the ones that are supposed to offer privacy, some of the ways they were setup are better than others.


There are a few cryptos I think will really prosper because they have a finite amount of coins that will be made, and because at least for the time being theoretically it's extremely difficult to trace financial transactions, which is a quality that is useful for some. I'm not heavily invested in crypto because I don't feel that I have the time or the expertise to really get into the details, and because I'm biased for various reasons into more conventional investments. I probably could make more money short term, and maybe even long term if I picked a crypto currency that had a better use case than others and invested in it. I am very risk averse, and so my tendency is to go into something more like stocks, and ones that have a long track record of performance, and pay a dividend. I'm pretty big on utilities, even though there is little reason to think that the gains will be particularly impressive. I'd rather get something consistent, than wake up one day and find out that I was in a horse race and backed the wrong horse.


A good portion of the cryptos being made from my perspective are basically scams. They don't have a unique use case, some of them don't have a limit on how many coins will be made, that seems by definition inflationary. If there are going to be twice as many coins next year, or some completely undetermined amount, and there isn't anything special about that particular coin, my expectation would be that at some point the coin wouldn't be worth much compared just about anything else you could have bought.

Edit:

I still think governments will crack down on crypto at some point. They will use the electricity usage as the reason.


There is a crackdown underway. It has more to do with the fact that crypto is used to pay ransom. Below is an article about a person that I believe is one of the early people that the government is going after because they help facilitate transactions that are hard to trace. The way I believe the government operates with these kinds of things is they need a few test cases where they go after someone, and then see what happens in the court to find out what kinds of facts are actually really important when you try to prosecute a case.




One of my previous employers was advised at a cyber security conference to buy bitcoin in case their systems were hacked and ransom was demanded to gain access back to their systems. The CEO told me about this because he thought the story was interesting, but more than anything he seem interested in the fact that he had missed out, that bitcoin had gone up so much that if he had bought a bunch for ransom, the value would have gone up far more than anything else he was involved in (He told me this story I believe shortly after it reached 10k).
 
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StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
I still think governments will crack down on crypto at some point. They will use the electricity usage as the reason.
I don't know how gov even tracks crypto profits. But I guess the best way is if banks and gov work together and notice some dude just added $100000 to his bank account without a good reason and it's time to audit the guy how he got the cash.

Government has already kind of warned people as they claim any profits are taxable. But it's a loosey goosey way.

But with crypto at record highs, they are licking their chops at the capital gains tax potential. They just need a way to formalize tracking it. I just dont know how. When Bitcoin was at $3000 and every other crypto was at $1, who cares. But the bucks are big now. Time to reel in the people as crypto profits are too juicy to turn a blind eye.
 
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zeorhymer

Member
There is a crackdown underway. It has more to do with the fact that crypto is used to pay ransom. Below is an article about a person that I believe is one of the early people that the government is going after because they help facilitate transactions that are hard to trace.
This is a red herring. The US dollar is the #1 currency used for criminal activity. The only reason for the crackdown is because gubment want their grubby hands on it via taxation.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
This is a red herring. The US dollar is the #1 currency used for criminal activity. The only reason for the crackdown is because gubment want their grubby hands on it via taxation.
Totally true.

Booze, casinos, smokes, weed. All sin products. And illegal at some in point in every place.

But the second government figures out how to effectively tax it after 10 years of hidden meetings in government buildings, suddenly boom. Suddenly its not so bad anymore because some ka-ching is rolling in.

"The government would like to announce we have passed a law making Addiction X legal and crypto profits enforceable with these policies, which include these documents online for businesses and citizens to file taxes"
 

ManofOne

Plus Member
rick and morty waiting GIF by Adult Swim


me prepping my butthole for inflation data
 
My equities aren’t really dropping. I think yesterday’s pre-market move anticipated this and dampened it some. Then again it’s still premarket.

Whatever. I’ll let the bottom fall out and try to catch some on the way back up.
 
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ManofOne

Plus Member
U.S. consumer prices climbed in April by the most since 2009, amid a record increase in used-car costs and signaling a build-up in inflationary pressures as burgeoning demand gives companies latitude to pass on higher costs.

The consumer price index increased 0.8% from the prior month after a 0.6% gain in March, according to Labor Department data Wednesday. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core CPI rose 0.9% from March.

The median forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% in the CPI and a 0.3% gain in the core measure.



The annual CPI figure surged to 4.2%, distorted by the comparison to the pandemic-depressed index in April 2020. This phenomenon -- known as the base effect -- will skew the May figure as well, likely muddling the ongoing inflation debate.


While Federal Reserve officials and economists acknowledge the temporary boost, it’s unclear whether a more durable pickup in inflationary pressures is underway against a backdrop of soaring commodities costs, trillions of dollars in government economic stimulus and incipient signs of higher labor costs.

The core CPI measure, which was also biased higher by the base effect, rose 3% from 12 months ago. For the last year the annual core inflation metric has held below 2%.

Wednesday’s report offers insight into bubbling price pressures across parts of the economy. Wages have shown signs of picking up, and supply chain challenges have elongated delivery times and driven materials prices higher.
 

dem

Member
Getting my shit pushed

AMZN, GOOG, FB... Ooof

And curse whoever mentioned PINS... knife from hell
 
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Well I was hoping I'd see MSFT at $280 by EOY but that's probably a stretch with the way things are going. With that said I'm looking at my portfolio and I don't see anything I wouldn't be comfortable holding til this time next year anyway, most I'd be fine holding for the next 10 years.
 
I am down $25,000...mainly due to the ARK ETFs in the last 4 months. I bought pretty high and still have kept them. It's starting to really fuck with me, but I plan to hold on until next year to see how they recover. Hoping things pick back up.

That reminds me of the time I lost like $16k when NVAX failed their Phase 3 trial for RSV in elderly patients. If I had just held my shares for 4+ years I probably would have recovered and even made some money when their COVID vaccine data came out a few months ago.

That was an expensive lesson.

edit: You'll almost assuredly recover from this at some point, but you'll pay an opportunity loss cost.
 
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godhandiscen

There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
Almost back to my lowest point of the year for my stocks portfolio. Is it this the time to load up on tech or will it fall further?
 
Almost back to my lowest point of the year for my stocks portfolio. Is it this the time to load up on tech or will it fall further?
All of tech is showing oversold right now but that doesn't mean much considering the market conditions. This is something I think most people saw coming so I'm hoping most of the mega caps start coming back sooner rather than later. But there are much smarter investors and traders in this thread that probably have better insights. I'm probably going to hang back this week and maybe next to see what kind of supports start to form (if they do) and then maybe add tiny bits here and there whenever the price touches those because the next day that floor could easily be a ceiling or worse.
 

Cyberpunkd

Member
Even with inflation I don’t see the alternative in what to invest in. Interest rates on savings are on a historical low and with the pandemic the last thing the government wants you to do is save.
 

Cyberpunkd

Member
All of tech is showing oversold right now but that doesn't mean much considering the market conditions. This is something I think most people saw coming so I'm hoping most of the mega caps start coming back sooner rather than later. But there are much smarter investors and traders in this thread that probably have better insights. I'm probably going to hang back this week and maybe next to see what kind of supports start to form (if they do) and then maybe add tiny bits here and there whenever the price touches those because the next day that floor could easily be a ceiling or worse.
May 17th is tax day in the US, people are cashing their gains to pay their taxes.
 

AmuroChan

Member
Almost back to my lowest point of the year for my stocks portfolio. Is it this the time to load up on tech or will it fall further?

If by load up you mean buying a ton of tech stocks right now, I was say it's better to take a watch and wait approach. Lots of tech stocks are still overvalued even with the recent drop. Plus many big players are rotating their investments from tech and into crypto. So it's hard to predict what the new plateau will be. The government also hasn't exactly provided a lot of confidence when it comes to the economy. Investors are rightfully a little concerned right now.
 
If by load up you mean buying a ton of tech stocks right now, I was say it's better to take a watch and wait approach. Lots of tech stocks are still overvalued even with the recent drop. Plus many big players are rotating their investments from tech and into crypto. So it's hard to predict what the new plateau will be. The government also hasn't exactly provided a lot of confidence when it comes to the economy. Investors are rightfully a little concerned right now.

What big players are going from tech into crypto? I highly doubt any of them are putting a significant % into something that cannot be valued

. Goldman said at most 1-2% of your portfolio.
 

GHG

Member
Rough day with nowhere to hide other than buying the bear ETF's.

I'm calm though, not holding anything that I don't see the value in or don't have conviction in. Also have a load of cash on the sidelines so if this continues for a while I'll just buy on a weekly basis.
 

AmuroChan

Member
What big players are going from tech into crypto? I highly doubt any of them are putting a significant % into something that cannot be valued

. Goldman said at most 1-2% of your portfolio.

Tesla, MicroStrategy, GrayScale, GDH, etc. Then there are also a bunch of billionaires who are heavy into crypto. Mark Cuban, Mike Saylor, Richard Branson, Chris Larsen, Tim Draper, etc.

Tesla invested 10% of its $19 billion cash holding in BTC just earlier this year.
 
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