Two critical factors should prevent the current outbreak from spreading much further. The first is the sophisticated monitoring systems set up by the CDC in the United States, similar authorities in other countries, and the WHO on a global basis. The SARS outbreak in 2002 ended up killing less than 800 people, in part because of a near shutdown of world travel and minute-by-minute tracking of the progress of the disease around the world.
Secondly, there are several theories about why flu viruses do not spread with the rapidity and scale that they once did. One of the probable reasons is is that flu vaccines diminish the spread of the disease in general by cutting down on the spread of specific strains. This even extends to the vaccinations of animals that are the primary carriers of the infectious viruses. In addition, the CDC said that two major flu drugs, Tamiflu and Relenza, appear likely to diminish the severity of symptoms for the new strain, if taken in the first 48-hours of this Swine flu infection. That may be one of the reasons that public health officials, epidemiologists, and infectious disease specialists have indicated that people should not be overly concerned. One expert told NPR, "We've seen swine influenza in humans over the past several years, and in most cases, it's come from direct pig contact. This seems to be different," said Dr. Arnold Monto, from the University of Michigan. "I think we need to be careful and not apprehensive, but certainly paying attention to new developments as they proceed."
The odds that tens of thousands of people will die from the flu are low. Advances in medicine and public health policy have made a big difference in the ability to monitor emerging serious illnesses. The fact that the new disease seems not to be terribly virulent outside of Mexico is another factor that supports the opinion that this will not be a major epidemic. However, in the minds of some analysts, the world can still look forward to trillions of dollars in financial losses and an economic depression.
