I don't think it's particularly Toriyama's fault that we're in the situation we are right now. At around the time Final Fantasy XIII-2 was going to launch, they overestimated it quite a bit (leading to the massive overshipment of the game) and greenlit a third before they saw the returns, I speculate.
However, I think another factor is that upper management did a forecast of the next few years with regard to the series -- relaunching Final Fantasy XIV would (and should) be at the forefront right now for to start mending the series reputation and the benefits of a subscription model MMORPG. There's also the issue of Final Fantasy Versus XIII being further off in development than Square Enix would be comfortable with.
You might remember Wada's plan to release one Final Fantasy title a year -- well, I think Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII is essentially filling the 2013 slot. I don't think Toriyama is essentially behind some grand scheme to make Final Fantasy "Lightning Fantasy", but that he is one of the few people at Square Enix that have essentially lucked out during this tough time for the franchise. The Final Fantasy XIII series would be primed for a third game since the team had already assembled and all the gears were in motion. So, take that as you will.
If you're with me in shouting: "What about A Realm Reborn? That counts as a Final Fantasy doesn't it?" You bet your ass it does, but I have to wonder if Square Enix is taking precautionary steps incase it does not succeed. (Which would break my FFXIV-loving heart.) Lightning Returns could be, in their opinion, something of an insurance policy with their console-bearing base in tow. A bit risky if you ask me, since I'm not confident the game will sell as much as XIII-2. Would love to be wrong!
My own gut feeling after interviewing the staff about Lightning Returns is that it's being treated almost like a spinoff -- a notch less than the AAA caliber of numbered titles.
So yeah, I think they're meeting the "2013 Final Fantasy quota" while gearing up for the future: Versus, XV, and beyond. I'm a hopeless optimist sometimes, who knows if this will all pay off? I think the road ahead for the franchise is bumpy, but I think there are signs that within a few years, things could get back on track.