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[lunchwithyuzo]

Without discounting that Nintendo do have a very strong first party - I think it remains to be seen both how permanent the growth of their brands has been and the extent of that growth in the absence of a separate driving force.

I think we've seen growth demonstrated on 3DS actually, at least for the more core oriented brands (Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda) which all seem to outperforming DS bar NSMB. I think it's safer and more ligical to error on the side of "some sustained growth" anyway rather than predict an immediate drop back to Gamecube levels.

I was looking at US NPD sell-through in 2006 vs the NA shipment number.

For Wii U? It was only supply constrained week 1, I'm not following? Or you mean 360? If 200k+ unaccounted for is "normal" for a sold out system like 360 in 2005, we should maybe reevaluate the Wii U figures entirely...

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Yes to both, though looking at sales vs shipments something weird was going on for 360 in the US. Everyone says supply constraints but the shipments clearly imply otherwise? :/

Also, Wii U's January really was catastrophic. PS360 are each almost caught up in the US thanks to it.


Reposting earlier shipment figures (vs sellthrough):

Wii U (2012)
North America: 1.3m (890k US sold)
Japan: 830k (640k sold)
Other: 900k (430k EU sold)

PlayStation 3 (2006)
North America + Japan + HK: 1.7m (690k US + 470k JP sold)

Xbox 360 (2005)
North America: 900k (620k US sold)
EMEA: 500k
Japan: 100k (95k sold)


And launch alinged sales ltd:

NPD (US) 1st 3 months
WiU: 954k (10 weeks)
PS3: 944k (11 weeks)
360: 845k (9 weeks)

Enterbrain (Japan) 1st 11 weeks
WiU: 792k
PS3: 567k
360: 117k

It will be interesting to see this updated in 3 weeks.

 

[megabytecr]

People thought the Wii would fail before it came out. But after it was sold out for months I don't believe most thought it would be a failure. Wii U is selling must worse than any of the three consoles now in comparison, with no upkick in sight for months, and even that isn't a given.

and GAF will meltdown when PS4 and Xbox sales do not meet expectations. PS360 transition will be very very long.

The Wii sold purely on innovation for motion controls and marketing pretty much was free. Please someone who may remember how was the marketing for Wii at launch, I don´t remember.

Wii U is a bit harder to explain and it is known that Nintendo has not pushed a big marketing campaign.

This is the first mistake comparing Wii to Wii U launches, very different conditions, market, economy and the novelty factor on the Wii.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I think we've seen growth demonstrated on 3DS actually, at least for the more core oriented brands (Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda) which all seem to outperforming DS bar NSMB. I think it's safer and more ligical to error on the side of "some sustained growth" anyway rather than predict an immediate drop back to Gamecube levels.

I don't really dispute that there could be "some sustained growth." The extent of "some" remains to be seen. The NSMB brand hasn't been able to work that much magic on the Wii U as yet.

For Wii U? It was only supply constrained week 1, I'm not following? Or you mean 360? If 200k+ unaccounted for is "normal" for a sold out system like 360 in 2005, we should maybe reevaluate the Wii U figures entirely...

I think you're confusing what I wrote... I meant that the Wii, while supply constrained still had shipment ~170K in excess of US NPD tracking - ergo, I don't think the 360 number seems that odd.

 

[metalslimer]

If you're console is that hard to explain, than isn't there something fundamentally wrong with the system then? I keep seeing that used as an excuse for the Wii U marketing launch campaign failed so hard, but "hard to explain" sounds like code for we just had a shitty launch. It's not really that difficult to explain what the Wii U does. Nintendo just didn't have the software to back it up for many people. What exactly is difficulty to explain about the Wii U?

part of me thinks they'll wait until the new fiscal year to really go all out.

With what? You don't usually start a random huge marketing campaign with nothing to go with it. Marketing was certainly a problem, at this point the problem is the software release schedule (and maybe the price) which won't be solved by a huge marketing campaign.

 

[Richie]

The Wii sold purely on innovation for motion controls and marketing pretty much was free. Please someone who may remember how was the marketing for Wii at launch, I don´t remember.

Wii U is a bit harder to explain and it is known that Nintendo has not pushed a big marketing campaign.

This is the first mistake comparing Wii to Wii U launches, very different conditions, market, economy and the novelty factor on the Wii.

I agree with your points, and while it goes without saying that Wii benefited immensely from all the attention it got in the media (unplanned by Nintendo), it did have the superb "Wii Would Like To Play" commercial, which was amazingly successful IIRC. As you point out, Nintendo has yet to invest big on Wii U marketing; part of me thinks they'll wait until the new fiscal year to really go all out.

 

[megabytecr]

If you're console is that hard to explain, than isn't there something fundamentally wrong with the system then? I keep seeing that used as an excuse for the Wii U marketing launch campaign failed so hard, but "hard to explain" sounds like code for we just had a shitty launch. It's not really that difficult to explain what the Wii U does. Nintendo just didn't have the software to back it up for many people. What exactly is difficulty to explain about the Wii U?



With what? You don't usually start a random huge marketing campaign with nothing to go with it. Marketing was certainly a problem, at this point the problem is the software release schedule (and maybe the price) which won't be solved by a huge marketing campaign.

Yes I am with you on the hard to explain. What are the chances this is just purely marketing campaign.

With Wii and 3DS even here in Costa Rica, latin america, I saw plenty of commercials for Wii, even for major Wii software. Wii would like to play were pretty neat commercials. They need something classy in the Wii U marketing and IMO they have to go back on what was succesful on the Wii while at the same time sharing the new features for Wii U. Tough task ahead.

 

[majik13]

I never fully understand the appeal of the wii would like to play commercials. I always considered them meh or bad. I didn't find them clever, funny or cool or anything imo. And I dont recall anyone talking about them in real lifel or online at the time. Not until recently for the last few months I always see them praised. I guess I am just surprised all of a sudden. Not sure if my lack of appeal comes from living in Japan for a year. Maybe I saw too many commercials like it in Japan? I don't know

I always figured wiis success came from word of mouth, media and the blogosphere or whatever

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I don't really dispute that there could be "some sustained growth." The extent of "some" remains to be seen. The NSMB brand hasn't been able to work that much magic on the Wii U as yet.

Well, a fall back to pre-Wii figures sort of inherently goes against the notion of even "some" sustained growth. I'm happy you've reclairified your position to something more reasonable.

NSMB also seems to be the one core oriented brand failing to exceed DS figures on 3DS though, as I just mentioned. Let's see how Zelda, 3D Mario and Mario Kart do later this year on Wii U, and if they ape 3DS like NSMB has.

I think you're confusing what I wrote... I meant that the Wii, while supply constrained still had shipment ~170K in excess of US NPD tracking - ergo, I don't think the 360 number seems that odd.

Ah, I did misunderstand. Though 280k/900k is still a significantly bigger margin than 170k/1.25m all the same. It's actually almost identical to Wii U's unsold margin of 410k/1.3m in fact. It really just doesn't gel for a supply constrained system to have a third it's NA shipments unaccounted for by US sales, something's off.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Yes to both, though looking at sales vs shipments something weird was going on for 360 in the US. Everyone says supply constraints but the shipments clearly imply otherwise? :/

360 premiums were supply constrained, 360 cores (or 'tard packs' as they were called) were easily available, which probably accounts for your confusion

 

[Busty]

There isn't that much of a clear visual difference between the Wii U and PS4.

I see.

 

[netBuff]

When Vita was revealed, in that moment the 3DS was having poor sales and most of the people thought that Vita was going to crush the 3DS... Also the Vita presentation was much better than the PS4 reveal.

No sane person believed that the Vita was going to "crush" the 3DS. The general pessimism towards the Vita's outlook was very palpable before launch.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

No sane person believed that the Vita was going to "crush" the 3DS. The general pessimism towards the Vita's outlook was very palpable before launch.

No, Vita's outlook was quite positive until the 3DS pricedrop announcement. And even after that really, until the MH3G/4 announcement, and really people kept giving it the benefit of the doubt for months after launch to turn things around with game announcements (wait for GDC, wait for E3, wait for Gamescon, wait for TGS). The reality that Vita's a dead platform walking is a relatively recent one for many.

 

[marc^o^]

No sane person believed that the Vita was going to "crush" the 3DS. The general pessimism towards the Vita's outlook was very palpable before launch.

That's some serious revisionism: http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=432684&page=175

 

[biggersmaller]

WiiU had the perception problem of being a Wii accessory around launch. Doubled with a sharp month-over-month sales decrease, no meaningful marketing, and no tentpole game yet released - the next wave of truly impressive next-gen visuals marketed by the general media will result in much stronger sales than the WiiU.

As someone who grew-up purchasing many 'failed' systems, WiiU odds are not looking good from a sales POV. This doesn't mean you can't enjoy your Zelda and Mario. I proudly purchased a Vita knowing it would primarily exist as my PSP/PS1 machine. Just don't allow yourself to become delusional enough to believe the WiiU will become a commercial success.

 

[Nostremitus]

I expect the Wii U to do better than the GameCube in sales. I doubt any one system will see the sales the Wii had, though...

 

[Roo]

That's some serious revisionism: http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=432684&page=175

lmao!! that thread is delicious

Yeah 3DS is toast.

So bought.

Wake up, Nintendo.

hahahah 3ds

3ds is screwed

NINTENDO IS DEAD

3DS is dead now, step your shit up Nintendo.

Wow, I got owned. I really thought it was going to be $400.

3DS is going to get rocked.

 

[Taurus]

lmao!! that thread is delicious

Bwahaha, so good!

For anyone interested, read from here on: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=432684&page=199

 

[Terrell]

That's some serious revisionism: http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=432684&page=175

I wouldn't expect any less. I mean, GAF looks back on the Gamecube as a marvel of design, especially its controller.
I was around during that time, and I remember what the VAST majority of GAF said in that moment about the console and its controller.

Revisionist history's a bitch, especially when someone else has a better memory.

 

[netBuff]

That's some serious revisionism: http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=432684&page=175

That's a live conference reaction thread with many quick-shot responses though. Not really the place where serious discussion happens and thought-out responses are formed - these are about quick, hyped-up texts.

But I'm sure there were optimistic statements towards the Vita in regular discussion threads as well, but the overall sentiment certainly wasn't that the Vita was going to outsell the 3DS. I feel like you are the one trying to revise history.

I wouldn't expect any less. I mean, GAF looks back on the Gamecube as a marvel of design, especially its controller.
I was around during that time, and I remember what the VAST majority of GAF said in that moment about the console and its controller.

Revisionist history's a bitch, especially when someone else has a better memory.

The GameCube controller wasn't a marvel of design, it's pretty badly designed in terms of control inputs (second stick, shoulder button, front buttons). It's probably romanticised so much because it was part of younger GAF members childhoods.

 

[walking fiend]

Bwahaha, so good!

For anyone interested, read from here on: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=432684&page=199

And the interesting thing is that Vita is still selling like shit; will see what will happen with PS4 at $500 and 2 exclusive games

 

[netBuff]

And the interesting thing is that Vita is still selling like shit; will see what will happen with PS4 at $500 and 2 exclusive games

Live threads aren't indicative of much of anything, the Vita's flop was telegraphed and widely discussed plenty in advance of the platform launch.

But this thread is about the Wii U, anyway: A console which is clearly doing catastrophically. I don't think Nintendo's further strategy is heavily influenced by Sony or Microsoft reveals.

 

[liger05]

Bwahaha, so good!

For anyone interested, read from here on: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=432684&page=199

I'm thinking Vita will be essentially DOA (same with 3DS).

I'm not saying that the hardware isn't compelling and that I don't think it will sell out and sell well for the first couple months. The problem is the business model for mobile has changed and Sony can't realistically expect the Vita to be a five year machine anymore. It's going to be technologically lapped by cellphones and tablets within a year if not sooner. Mobile 3D performance is jumping by at least a factor of two every year.

The pricing will definitely be an issue. Yes, $249 is a good price for the device in a vacuum. Unfortunately, it's competing with subsidized mobile devices. $500, $600, and $700 devices are selling for $199 or lower on contract. That's a difficult row to hoe for a device with a limited scope of usage.

That person called it.

 

[pantsmith]

lmao!! that thread is delicious

Do keep in mind the Vita was launching at the same price as the 3DS. Imagine if the PS4 was launching at the same price as the WiiU, thats a lot closer to where they were coming from. No one could have expected anything that followed to take place.

 

[liger05]

Do keep in mind the Vita was launching at the same price as the 3DS. Imagine if the PS4 was launching at the same price as the WiiU, thats a lot closer to where they were coming from. No one could have expected anything that followed to take place.

I think people misunderstood that the 3DS specs were not the reason people were not ready to pay $249.99. The Vita having better specs didnt make a difference to the consumer as it was still a handheld which was overpriced like the 3DS.

 

[Apophis2036]

But this thread is about the Wii U, anyway: A console which is clearly doing catastrophically. I don't think Nintendo's further strategy is heavily influenced by Sony or Microsoft reveals.

And launch alinged sales ltd:

NPD (US) 1st 3 months
WiU: 954k (10 weeks)
PS3: 944k (11 weeks)
360: 845k (9 weeks)

Enterbrain (Japan) 1st 11 weeks
WiU: 792k
PS3: 567k
360: 117k

You see what you want to see I guess .

 

[netBuff]

And launch alinged sales ltd:

NPD (US) 1st 3 months
WiU: 954k (10 weeks)
PS3: 944k (11 weeks)
360: 845k (9 weeks)

Enterbrain (Japan) 1st 11 weeks
WiU: 792k
PS3: 567k
360: 117k

You see what you want to see I guess .

You're certainly seeing what you want to see - the console is tanking badly in sales, in a few weeks you most likely won't be posting similar data.

 

[shinra-bansho]

You see what you want to see I guess .

January NPD. 57K, 11K/week. Yes. Clearly.

Media Create/Famitsu. 11K/week. Yes, seeing what one wants to see.

 

[Lord Ghirahim]

You're certainly seeing what you want to see - the console is tanking badly in sales, in a few weeks you most likely won't be posting similar data.

Wii U is doing great for a game-free platform ;//

 

[Apophis2036]

Of course the Jan US sales were beyond bad but selling 2 million $350 consoles in this economy in 3 months is decent imo. The sales will not improve unless they price cut it to $250 or release new exclusive games.

The console has Lego City, Monster Hunter, Need for Speed Most Wanted, Wii Fit U, Game & Wario, Splinter Cell Blacklist, Pikmin 3, Wonderful 101, Rayman Legends, Bayonetta 2, Wind Waker HD, Yoshi's Yarn, Mario Universe, Watch Dogs, and Mario Kart to come before the end of the year so it's not as bad as people make out.

Also when talking about PS4/720 a lot of people need to remember than they will be cannibalizing each others sales at launch, I doubt they will do much more than 3 million in their first three months either.

I hope I will see the same 6 or 7 people post then, the same people that seem to be absolutely obsessed with seeing WiiU fail.

 

[Snowden's Secret]

Wii U is doing great for a game-free platform ;//

You're joking but this is really true. How the Wii U has managed to sell as much as it has when a game hasn't been released in months is surprising.

 

[Terrell]

You're certainly seeing what you want to see

He's not exactly alone in that.

 

[Wynnebeck]

He's not exactly alone in that.

Everyone is. It's human nature to have preferences.

 

[Papacheeks]

There isn't that much of a clear visual difference between the Wii U and PS4.

Now I know people be smoking something in here!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_rt16FZ_z1N8/RvRIFqVGfkI/AAAAAAAAAm0/o6FViRGSQ7Y/s400/spliff.jpg

 

[onQ123]

I think Wii U might be in trouble & it's not because of the power advantage that the PS4 & Xbox Next will have over it.


I think the Wii U messed up because they left the Just Dance market wide open for PS4 or Xbox Next to run away with by not having a Wiimote upgrade that come with ever Wii U but luckily for the Wii U a lot of the Just Dance market already have Wiimotes & some will just update to the Wii U & use the Wiimotes they already have.


PS4 & Xbox Next being sold with Next Gen motion control cameras in every box could really appeal to the Dance Game market & the fact that they will have HD cameras & will be able to easily record the gameplay & upload right to youtube & facebook & market it's self with a PS4 /Xbox Next logo on the videos could be a real problem for the WiiU.