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'There is panic at the top of the Kremlin': Is A Slow Putsch Against Putin Under Way?

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chadskin

Member
In the last couple of days, reports have been making the rounds that may indicate a potential power struggle in the Kremlin. Here are two that sum them up, the first from August 14th and the second from August 20th.

Political analyst: 'There is panic at the top of the Kremlin'
The Russian foreign minister is usually smooth as silk in public, shamelessly and effortlessly twisting, spinning, distorting, and lying on behalf of Vladimir Putin's regime.

But this week, Lavrov was caught on camera — and on mic — sputtering a string of expletives during a joint press conference with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir.

It's unclear what sparked Lavrov's odd outburst — and it doesn't really matter. The fact that it happened is a sign of the times.

The past couple weeks have witnessed a series of incidents that suggest that all is not well in the Kremlin elite. Russian customs and health officials have staged quasi-ritualistic burnings of European cheese and other foodstuffs, as well as of Dutch flowers.

Its parliamentary speaker, Sergei Naryshkin, has penned an article in the official government daily Rossiiskaya Gazeta accusing the US of "zombifying" its European allies and plotting a major provocation against Moscow. Naryshkin has also called for an international tribunal on the US' use of the atomic bomb in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
"There is panic at the top of the Kremlin," political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky wrote in a recent article in Apostrof. "This is evident in Naryshkin’s article, in the burning of foodstuffs at the border, and in Lavrov’s behavior at the press conference with Saudi officials."

In recent years, it's been fashionable and tempting to view Vladimir Putin as the man with a plan, the master of the universe, the spinner of vast conspiracies.

While that may have once been the case, an increasing number of Kremlin watchers are coming to the conclusion that the wheels are coming off the Putin machine.

Moscow-based commentator Igor Yakovenko wrote recently that the system is "running amok."
And in an op-ed in The New York Times, political analyst Ivan Krastev noted, citing former Kremlin insider Gleb Pavlovsky, that Putin has been increasingly disengaged from day-to-day decision making. Krastev added that the policymaking process resembles "the music of a jazz group; its continuing improvisation is an attempt to survive the latest crisis."

At the heart of the crisis gripping the elite is a paradox: They can't live with Putin. And they can't live without him.

Increasing numbers of Russia's ruling class — or at least its smarter members — understand that the Putin system has reached the end of its usefulness. It's hit the point of diminishing returns.

Putin has boxed himself into a corner in Ukraine. He has run the economy into the ground. And he has isolated Russia from the world. And there don't appear to be any more rabbits he can pull out of his hat.

If the status quo continues, Piontkovsky wrote, the elite "understands perfectly well that this will lead to their loss of billions of dollars" and could eventually cause "the fall of the regime."

And this appears to be paralyzing Putin himself.
http://www.businessinsider.com/there-is-panic-at-the-top-of-the-kremlin-2015-8?IR=T

Is A Slow Putsch Against Putin Under Way?
A quarter century after the fall of the USSR, Kremlinologists sense a putsch in the air, despite Vladimir Putin’s overwhelming approval ratings. The tea leaves say that the Kremlin elite, dubbed by some as Politburo 2.0, is currently deciding whether Putin should go before he makes a bad situation worse. The founder of the respected daily Kommersant predicts that a dramatic change is about to take place and advises Russians who have the means to leave the country for a month or so and take their children with them.
Many predict the eventual end of the Putin regime, but it remains unclear how this could come about. As the nominally elected president, Putin would have to either resign or cease to exist. Indicators suggest that the process would begin with an assault on Putin’s closest associates, which appears underway.

First, Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, was outed by opposition blogger Alexei Navalny for renting a yacht in Sicily for $500,000 a week. Peskov’s denial was shot down by photos on social media. Navalny’s scandal reportings are often ignored, but this story went viral on Russian mainstream media sites, including RBC, Pravda.ru and others. Peskov was already under attack by Vedemosti for owning a $620,000 watch on his civil servant’s salary.

Second, Putin insider and target of Western sanctions, Vladimir Yakunin, in the first year of a five-year contract, announced he was resigning as head of the Russian railroad monopoly to become a senator for Kalingrad province. According to a source for Forbes Russia, “If the resignation is really taking place, this means that something very serious has taken place in the last few days.” Russian press reports emphasize that Yakunin has refused to disclose the sources of his income because such matters are not discussed in polite company. Anti-corruption blogger Navalny has filled in the blanks with a 14 page inventory of Yakunin’s properties, including his castle.

Third, “longtime (Putin) acquaintance (from childhood) businessman Gennady Timchenko” is the subject of a vicious hit job in the semiofficial newspaper Vedemosti. The article reports that Timchenko, “isolated from the Western world by sanctions,” can no longer visit his villa on the shores of Lake Geneva” in his Gulfstream G650 and has been reduced to living in the residence of former head of state Nikita Khrushchev. The Vedemosti article then runs through a long list of shady business partners doing business through nontransparent trading companies with Russian giants such Rosneft, Surgutneft and Transneft with which one “cannot deal without good relations at the highest levels.” The oil trading colossus Gunvor, half owned by Timchenko before the sanctions were imposed, plays a recurring role in the narrative. Notably, Putin’s clandestine ownership of Gunvor is purported to be the main source of his billions of dollars of wealth. Open discussions of Timchenko and Gunvor have previously been out of bounds in the mainstream Russian press.

Fourth, Putin’s former personal body guard and head of internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Victor Zolotov, has been subject to a media attack entitled “All Garbage in One Hut,” by a publication with strong ties to the security services. As in other cases, Zolotov’s extensive land, apartments, and other forms of wealth are disclosed in painful detail. The article ends with what is close to an indictment of his boss, Vladimir Putin: “If Putin’s former bodyguard managed to get rich in the civil service by more than a billion, what can we say about whom he was guarding? This is the case when silence–is gold.”
Some analysts explain these events as Putin’s tiring of his cronies and wanting to revamp his inner circle. Such an explanation is unlikely. With a collapsing economy and at a dead-end in Ukraine, Putin needs all his friends, especially those under attack for corruption who may know the details of his own corruption. Dictators do not stay in power by abandoning their allies, especially during hard times.

At a minimum, some kind of power struggle is going on that seems to have Putin as its target. The pattern of attack is classic: bring down the big guy’s supporters first.

Although some argue that any new leadership coming from Politburo 2.0 would be as bad as Putin, Russian commentator Andrei Piontovsky begs to differ. He makes the claim that members of the Russian elite have been sending signals to the West that “everything will be resolved in the coming weeks.”

We have had false alarms before. This may be another one, but at least we can now see a path to the end of the Putin regime. We should note that Putin spent the anniversary of the August 19 coup against Mikhail Gorbachev in Crimea. It is also worthy of note that he took with him the four key members of his government who would likely choose his successor. Remember: Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/08/20/is-a-slow-putsch-against-putin-under-way/

More at the links. Whatcha'll think? Is Putin on his way out, potentially even before the next election in 2018, or is it just a false alarm?
 

phaonaut

Member
Just read this in the Ukraine thread. Very interesting read, but I don't really know much of anything about Russian politics so it could all be bullshit and I wouldn't know.
 
Fascinating stuff. But it's very hard to know if this is just one part of the story.

It's definitely plausible. Putin's metaphorical chest beating doesn't leave them with many sane options. Hopefully they don't put the insane ones on the table...
 
Its parliamentary speaker, Sergei Naryshkin, has penned an article in the official government daily Rossiiskaya Gazeta accusing the US of "zombifying" its European allies and plotting a major provocation against Moscow.

What does 'zombifying' mean?

And, no, there will be no major "provocation"...we don't give a shit about you.
 

brian577

Banned
Seems like it would be a dangerous move to try to push him out now considering how popular he is. Better to wait for the election, he already said he wouldn't run again (not that I believed him) it would be a much safer move.
 

Linus

Neo Member
This is evident in Naryshkin’s article, in the burning of foodstuffs at the border, and in Lavrov’s behavior at the press conference with Saudi officials.

Right.....
 
It is hard to see how Putin gets replaced by anyone other than one of his hand-picked cronies. He is so rich and so corrupt that no one could just let him walk away with all that money & crime.
 

excowboy

Member
What else is there to say except please God let this be true. Interesting stuff to read. Can't imagine he'll be going down without a fight though.
 

Hexa

Member
All according to Putin's plan. Checkers and chess and all that. /s
The sooner this guys crap comes to an end the better.
 

chadskin

Member
What does 'zombifying' mean?

I'd guess it's meant in the sense of Europe/the EU mindlessly following the US's direction. Much like North Korea accuses South Korea of being a puppet regime of the US, Russia often accuses European leaders of basically being the US's bitch.

Reads kind of like those Russian "academic" articles about the inevitable dissolution of the U.S.

#Trump2016
 
Reads kind of like those Russian "academic" articles about the inevitable dissolution of the U.S.
Well, with oil below $40/barrel, a money burning war in Ukraine, and sanctions from the US & EU, there is definitely some strain on things there. But a putsch seems unlikely. Venezuela hasn't collapsed yet and I would think they would go first.
 

Linus

Neo Member
Reads kind of like those Russian "academic" articles about the inevitable dissolution of the U.S.

The guy who wrote the article doesn't seem to be the most unbiased source.

Piontkovsky is one of the 34 first signatories of the online anti-Putin manifesto "Putin Must Go", published on 10 March 2010. In his subsequent articles he has repeatedly stressed its importance and urged citizens to sign it.[7]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey_Piontkovsky
 
His move on the Ukraine was unnecessary and probably the straw that broke the camels back in the community. I long for a day when Russia is on the up and up. They could be a strong nation if only they could stop playing the bad guy long enough.
 

Aylinato

Member
Well, with oil below $40/barrel, a money burning war in Ukraine, and sanctions from the US & EU, there is definitely some strain on things there. But a putsch seems unlikely. Venezuela hasn't collapsed yet and I would think they would go first.


Russia's economy was based on oil being 100 dollars per barrel.

I think Venezuelas model was based on 70 but I think the new corrupt president lowered that with the cuts down closer to 40.
Don't quote me on the Venezuelan one. The Russian one is accurate though.
 

leroidys

Member
Russia's economy was based on oil being 100 dollars per barrel.

I think Venezuelas model was based on 70 but I think the new corrupt president lowered that with the cuts down closer to 40.
Don't quote me on the Venezuelan one. The Russian one is accurate though.

I think you mean "budget" rather than economy.
 

fatchris

Member
His move on the Ukraine was unnecessary and probably the straw that broke the camels back in the community. I long for a day when Russia is on the up and up. They could be a strong nation if only they could stop playing the bad guy long enough.


Was it though? Whatever buffer zone that will be created in the Ukraine as a prerequisite to peace talks will allow Putin to hang on to hegemony in the area. The EU are too afraid for "shit to get real" .

I feel that Putin is taking a calculated hit to the economy (which may last 5 years or 10 or whatever) in order to safeguard Russian dominance for the next 100.
 

Dead Man

Member
That list of four things reads like something from the 70s when Western analysts tried to figure out what the politburo was actually doing by interpreting pravda articles.
 
I mean it's not like the $10 drop in oil from $50 to $40 is the thing that's going to instantly kill the Russian economy. However, if predictions are correct and oil stays that low I wonder how Russia will manage years of recession/depression

If anything Russia should be screaming at OPEC
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
mmm, we heard stuff like this before and it turned out to be nothing.

I think the situation is pretty qualitatively different, now. Russia's GDP growth has seen five straight years of decline, a situation we haven't seen since the early '90s. Putin has made a *very* large foreign policy mistake in Ukraine, but for domestic reasons can't really bow out quietly. This directly threatens the interests of major Russian magnates. Oil shows absolutely no sign of recovering and makes up the mainstay of Russia's economy. Funding the Russian army/Russian-aligned rebels in Ukraine plus pumping shedloads of money into Crimea is not sustainable. Countries like Kazakhstan have suddenly started make pro-US overtures as a result of what happened in Ukraine. I mean, these don't conclusively say "change will happen", but they *do* say that change is more likely than at any other point because Russia is in the worst position it has been in since '90s.

That said, this was a pretty bad article.
 
I think the real worry has nothing to do with Putin himself, but what happens if/when he steps down, and his appointed crony isn't strong/influential enough to hang on. Unlike the US and much of Europe, Russia doesn't have a strong, independent judiciary and civil service, which we've built up over time and generally take for granted. We expect the courts to continue dispensing justice, our roads to be maintained, etc.

If the White House or Downing Street was removed, day-to-day life could theoretically continue without a huge difference in these countries. But I'd imagine without the Kremlin, everything would just collapse into anarchy in Russia, hence the perceived need of a strongman that can keep order and get shit done.
 

Blader

Member
Knowing next to nothing about Russian politics, this article feels like a lot of specious reasoning at work.
 

Drek

Member
I mean it's not like the $10 drop in oil from $50 to $40 is the thing that's going to instantly kill the Russian economy. However, if predictions are correct and oil stays that low I wonder how Russia will manage years of recession/depression

If anything Russia should be screaming at OPEC

It isn't just OPEC though. The U.S. is producing far more oil than anyone expected as the long fabled shale oil boom is actually starting to arrive. Now that those technologies have become economically viable the genie isn't going back in the bottle and U.S. oil production will likely only increase as they're refined.

This also will result in mid-tier oil producers seeing meaningful increase in oil production. Israel for example has been at the forefront of shale oil extraction R&D because they have a significant (relative to size) wellspring to draw from. The Meged oil field is an example of this. Israel is far from the only country like this, instead they're just one example of how dramatically the heavy R&D by the oil industry during the boom of the last 15 years has changed the game on what can be considered "economically viable" even at $40 or $50 a barrel.

With economic instability rife among the major South American producers they'll be unwilling to curtail production and save resources for the next rise. The nuclear deal with Iran will add them back onto the world stage at a time when they also will be desperately looking for the additional capital. Unless the other members of OPEC pull a 180 the only nation currently interested in sandbagging oil production would be Russia and their economy probably wouldn't deal well with such a hit.

What's worse, China's economy is taking a significant downturn and they've been the only unrestricted growing market at Russia's disposal for a while now. If Obama and the GOP get enough democrats to buy into the TPP the ability to move off-shoring form China to other nearby markets would be a massive second blow to the Chinese economy on the heels of their current early signs of recession.

The stability of the Russian economy, and by proxy Putin's regime, is very much tied to the oil market. Whether through political machinations by others or just bad luck the market for oil is trending rapidly downward and there doesn't look to be another spike on the near horizon.

I really do wonder if the Iran deal, the lack of EPA push back against fracking/shale oil extraction technologies, and the TPP are all secondary parts to the direct embargo placed on Russia as a response to their aggression in the Ukraine and that it is all part of some grand Machiavellian scheme on Obama's part to weaken and destabilize Russia as a response to Putin's growing aggression over the last 5 years.
 
These 'Putin is gonna get ousted' fan fictions in the MSM are really becoming common occurrence, aren't they? At least when Putin went missing for his botox surgery it lead to a fun thread.
 

Shiina

Member
I'd guess it's meant in the sense of Europe/the EU mindlessly following the US's direction. Much like North Korea accuses South Korea of being a puppet regime of the US, Russia often accuses European leaders of basically being the US's bitch.

Probably not really that far off with that claim.
 

Vagabundo

Member
I cant see him going unless it is in a body bag. He ain't going to oust himself and he has way too much public support to simple arrest.
 

Chichikov

Member
Bring back all the 1980s Kremlinologists to read the tea leaves, Brzezinski, Stephen Cohen...
It's a fucking embarrassment that this was even a thing.
But it does speaks a ton about the failure of the west (and mostly the US) spy agencies and diplomatic corps to provide any reliable information about what the fuck is going on behind the iron curtain.
 

-MB-

Member
I remember a month or two ago when he disappeared from public for some time, and people suggested a coup then too.
And nothing came of that in the end, so call me sceptic when it comes to this time.
 

MisterR

Member
At the end of the day heads of governments answer to the rich and the corporations. If this is threatening the bigwigs money then Putin is gone.
 

Kathian

Banned
We get this every now and then. I always think its based more on an outsider perspective (ignorantly) than an insider perspective and tends to be theories by people waiting for Putin to fall.

Nothing here seems out of the ordinary with what's been happening in Russia for a few years now.
 

antonz

Member
Yeah, i won't pretend to be intimately familiar with russian politics but this seems very unlikely. He seems to have a lot of popular support.

He does but he built that support by making people very rich and right now he is causing those bank accounts to empty. Russia is a nation on the brink of collapse. Spending continues to rise while the governments main source of funding anything at all continues to decline. Russia is spending like its a Massive Superpower doing amazingly well financially.

That said even if Putin were to be taken out of the picture. Russia might improve to some degree but I doubt the Ukrainian situation would improve. There is far too much dick waving importance to the Ukrainian situation
 

TeddyBoy

Member
I think the real worry has nothing to do with Putin himself, but what happens if/when he steps down, and his appointed crony isn't strong/influential enough to hang on. Unlike the US and much of Europe, Russia doesn't have a strong, independent judiciary and civil service, which we've built up over time and generally take for granted. We expect the courts to continue dispensing justice, our roads to be maintained, etc.

If the White House or Downing Street was removed, day-to-day life could theoretically continue without a huge difference in these countries. But I'd imagine without the Kremlin, everything would just collapse into anarchy in Russia, hence the perceived need of a strongman that can keep order and get shit done.

I've got to agree with this, once Putin stops being President there's going to be a very large power vacuum and not many people able to fill it adequately.

Let's just hope there's no military coup, that's the last thing Russia needs.
 
At the end of the day heads of governments answer to the rich and the corporations. If this is threatening the bigwigs money then Putin is gone.

Putin has been developing a strong personality cult for quite some time. He would be more difficult to get rid of than most world leaders.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Putin has been developing a strong personality cult for quite some time. He would be more difficult to get rid of than most world leaders.

Yes, even many members of this forum fall for it unironically.
 
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