In the last couple of days, reports have been making the rounds that may indicate a potential power struggle in the Kremlin. Here are two that sum them up, the first from August 14th and the second from August 20th.
Political analyst: 'There is panic at the top of the Kremlin'
Is A Slow Putsch Against Putin Under Way?
More at the links. Whatcha'll think? Is Putin on his way out, potentially even before the next election in 2018, or is it just a false alarm?
Political analyst: 'There is panic at the top of the Kremlin'
The Russian foreign minister is usually smooth as silk in public, shamelessly and effortlessly twisting, spinning, distorting, and lying on behalf of Vladimir Putin's regime.
But this week, Lavrov was caught on camera — and on mic — sputtering a string of expletives during a joint press conference with Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir.
It's unclear what sparked Lavrov's odd outburst — and it doesn't really matter. The fact that it happened is a sign of the times.
The past couple weeks have witnessed a series of incidents that suggest that all is not well in the Kremlin elite. Russian customs and health officials have staged quasi-ritualistic burnings of European cheese and other foodstuffs, as well as of Dutch flowers.
Its parliamentary speaker, Sergei Naryshkin, has penned an article in the official government daily Rossiiskaya Gazeta accusing the US of "zombifying" its European allies and plotting a major provocation against Moscow. Naryshkin has also called for an international tribunal on the US' use of the atomic bomb in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
"There is panic at the top of the Kremlin," political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky wrote in a recent article in Apostrof. "This is evident in Naryshkin’s article, in the burning of foodstuffs at the border, and in Lavrov’s behavior at the press conference with Saudi officials."
In recent years, it's been fashionable and tempting to view Vladimir Putin as the man with a plan, the master of the universe, the spinner of vast conspiracies.
While that may have once been the case, an increasing number of Kremlin watchers are coming to the conclusion that the wheels are coming off the Putin machine.
Moscow-based commentator Igor Yakovenko wrote recently that the system is "running amok."
http://www.businessinsider.com/there-is-panic-at-the-top-of-the-kremlin-2015-8?IR=TAnd in an op-ed in The New York Times, political analyst Ivan Krastev noted, citing former Kremlin insider Gleb Pavlovsky, that Putin has been increasingly disengaged from day-to-day decision making. Krastev added that the policymaking process resembles "the music of a jazz group; its continuing improvisation is an attempt to survive the latest crisis."
At the heart of the crisis gripping the elite is a paradox: They can't live with Putin. And they can't live without him.
Increasing numbers of Russia's ruling class — or at least its smarter members — understand that the Putin system has reached the end of its usefulness. It's hit the point of diminishing returns.
Putin has boxed himself into a corner in Ukraine. He has run the economy into the ground. And he has isolated Russia from the world. And there don't appear to be any more rabbits he can pull out of his hat.
If the status quo continues, Piontkovsky wrote, the elite "understands perfectly well that this will lead to their loss of billions of dollars" and could eventually cause "the fall of the regime."
And this appears to be paralyzing Putin himself.
Is A Slow Putsch Against Putin Under Way?
A quarter century after the fall of the USSR, Kremlinologists sense a putsch in the air, despite Vladimir Putin’s overwhelming approval ratings. The tea leaves say that the Kremlin elite, dubbed by some as Politburo 2.0, is currently deciding whether Putin should go before he makes a bad situation worse. The founder of the respected daily Kommersant predicts that a dramatic change is about to take place and advises Russians who have the means to leave the country for a month or so and take their children with them.
Many predict the eventual end of the Putin regime, but it remains unclear how this could come about. As the nominally elected president, Putin would have to either resign or cease to exist. Indicators suggest that the process would begin with an assault on Putin’s closest associates, which appears underway.
First, Putin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, was outed by opposition blogger Alexei Navalny for renting a yacht in Sicily for $500,000 a week. Peskov’s denial was shot down by photos on social media. Navalny’s scandal reportings are often ignored, but this story went viral on Russian mainstream media sites, including RBC, Pravda.ru and others. Peskov was already under attack by Vedemosti for owning a $620,000 watch on his civil servant’s salary.
Second, Putin insider and target of Western sanctions, Vladimir Yakunin, in the first year of a five-year contract, announced he was resigning as head of the Russian railroad monopoly to become a senator for Kalingrad province. According to a source for Forbes Russia, “If the resignation is really taking place, this means that something very serious has taken place in the last few days.” Russian press reports emphasize that Yakunin has refused to disclose the sources of his income because such matters are not discussed in polite company. Anti-corruption blogger Navalny has filled in the blanks with a 14 page inventory of Yakunin’s properties, including his castle.
Third, “longtime (Putin) acquaintance (from childhood) businessman Gennady Timchenko” is the subject of a vicious hit job in the semiofficial newspaper Vedemosti. The article reports that Timchenko, “isolated from the Western world by sanctions,” can no longer visit his villa on the shores of Lake Geneva” in his Gulfstream G650 and has been reduced to living in the residence of former head of state Nikita Khrushchev. The Vedemosti article then runs through a long list of shady business partners doing business through nontransparent trading companies with Russian giants such Rosneft, Surgutneft and Transneft with which one “cannot deal without good relations at the highest levels.” The oil trading colossus Gunvor, half owned by Timchenko before the sanctions were imposed, plays a recurring role in the narrative. Notably, Putin’s clandestine ownership of Gunvor is purported to be the main source of his billions of dollars of wealth. Open discussions of Timchenko and Gunvor have previously been out of bounds in the mainstream Russian press.
Fourth, Putin’s former personal body guard and head of internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Victor Zolotov, has been subject to a media attack entitled “All Garbage in One Hut,” by a publication with strong ties to the security services. As in other cases, Zolotov’s extensive land, apartments, and other forms of wealth are disclosed in painful detail. The article ends with what is close to an indictment of his boss, Vladimir Putin: “If Putin’s former bodyguard managed to get rich in the civil service by more than a billion, what can we say about whom he was guarding? This is the case when silence–is gold.”
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/08/20/is-a-slow-putsch-against-putin-under-way/Some analysts explain these events as Putin’s tiring of his cronies and wanting to revamp his inner circle. Such an explanation is unlikely. With a collapsing economy and at a dead-end in Ukraine, Putin needs all his friends, especially those under attack for corruption who may know the details of his own corruption. Dictators do not stay in power by abandoning their allies, especially during hard times.
At a minimum, some kind of power struggle is going on that seems to have Putin as its target. The pattern of attack is classic: bring down the big guy’s supporters first.
Although some argue that any new leadership coming from Politburo 2.0 would be as bad as Putin, Russian commentator Andrei Piontovsky begs to differ. He makes the claim that members of the Russian elite have been sending signals to the West that “everything will be resolved in the coming weeks.”
We have had false alarms before. This may be another one, but at least we can now see a path to the end of the Putin regime. We should note that Putin spent the anniversary of the August 19 coup against Mikhail Gorbachev in Crimea. It is also worthy of note that he took with him the four key members of his government who would likely choose his successor. Remember: Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.
More at the links. Whatcha'll think? Is Putin on his way out, potentially even before the next election in 2018, or is it just a false alarm?