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[borghe]

I wish they would. But have we gotten any hard numbers (not ratios) for NPD recently? I think that's the best way to determine where we are in terms of base sales and average sales and whether titles like Cloverfield could "easily" push 100k on release week. Ratios can be deceptive and when was the last title we read a press release for a movie stating that it had sold greater thank 100k release week? Spiderman 3? I honestly can't recall.

this kind of goes to my point though. While we have very little substantive data as to actual sales numbers, we can extrapolate that 20-50K in units is pretty easy to hit for new big releases on their opening week. If a new release hits 50K on it's opening week, it need average only 10K per month over the next 5 months to hit 100K. You have to admit that's being insanely conservative.

I obviously know compared to DVD the BRD market is miniscule. Selling 50-100K of a movie is nothing when the same DVD release is selling 5-10M copies. BUT, and this also goes back to my point, assuming they are making at minimum $1/movie of studio profit (from which obviously comes backend percentages and royalties), that is still $50-100K being left on the table on opening week. And that's being conservative and not even talking about week 2, 3, 6, or the first 4-5 months. Not to mention, and this is another crucial point... Studios could afford to artificially delay DVD movies from day and date with VHS. Even if you bought the VHS, if you even only thought the movie was decent you were likely to replace your VHS to get crisp digital audio and video. With both discs playing on a single player and all players upconverting regular DVDs, someone is much less likely to upgrade a DVD they have if the BRD is time delayed. It is crucial right now for the studios to keep their biggest hits coming day and date. And if Paramount and Universal wait it out, they are going to miss all of their holiday and spring movie DVD releases. They know this, and I guarantee you it will be well less than a month before they make their first announcements likely to fall in during Q2 at the latest.

If you're worried about profiles, might want to consider a PS3, which constantly gets upgrades.

agreed. you either want a cheap player or you don't. If you are worried about upgradability, then buying anything besides a PS3 is futile. frankly, while the pip of titles like RE3 is nice.. I would hardly base my buying of a player off of it, or even online or built-in storage. Studios are going to base the vast majority of features along the lowests common denominator which for a while yet will be 1.0.

 

[VanMardigan]

this kind of goes to my point though. While we have very little substantive data as to actual sales numbers, we can extrapolate that 20-50K in units is pretty easy to hit for new big releases on their opening week. .

I want you to go back to when we started our little convo. My point was that Universal may be in no rush to port all but their highest profile titles to Blu Ray. I even said that they could put out stuff like Bourne Trilogy. My doubts are about the business sense in putting a lot of the more niche titles out on BD now, some of which are already on HD DVD. I just think it doesn't make business sense to do so. Not that I wouldn't want them to, but just stating that it makes sense for them because saying that they can still profit from sub 50k sales doesn't ring true with me. Not without heavy subsidization or encode/distribution help from the BDA.

We'll see. I think it would be smart to trickle the releases out and wait for BD sales to grow before attempting to release some of the titles they put out last year, such as Timecop, For Love of the Game, Mystery Men, etc.

 

[rc213]

Edion does the unthinkable: allows swapping of HD DVD players for Blu-ray decks


HDScape offers up HD DVD to Blu-ray exchange program

 

[borghe]

Well, to be fair, I never got their philosophy behind putting out the Fletches, Big Lebowskis, Old Schools, etc. I mean hell, even with DVD some of the catalog releases were the first time these movies were being released to a large audience in 10+ years. Fletch? Young Frankenstein? Big Trouble In Little China? But now with BRD, every major movie has probably seen release within the last 5-7 years. I don't think many catalog releases except for the biggest have much pent up demand for them.

To put it another way, I agree with you. Fletch seems like a silly release to rush to BRD (or HD-DVD). On the other hand Fletch was an outstanding catalog release for DVD.

I think about the only subject we're cloudy on is what qualifies. I believe they are throwing money away on EVERY contemporary release that they fail to hit day and date with, except for the smallest of titles or niche titles. Basically if a title made more than $60M at the box office, my guess is they're planning an HD release for it.

 

[tha_con]

I want you to go back to when we started our little convo. My point was that Universal may be in no rush to port all but their highest profile titles to Blu Ray. I even said that they could put out stuff like Bourne Trilogy. My doubts are about the business sense in putting a lot of the more niche titles out on BD now, some of which are already on HD DVD. I just think it doesn't make business sense to do so. Not that I wouldn't want them to, but just stating that it makes sense for them because saying that they can still profit from sub 50k sales doesn't ring true with me. Not without heavy subsidization or encode/distribution help from the BDA.

We'll see. I think it would be smart to trickle the releases out and wait for BD sales to grow before attempting to release some of the titles they put out last year, such as Timecop, For Love of the Game, Mystery Men, etc.

If Blu-Ray and HD DVD had the same sized user base, I'd agree, however, BRD has a substantial user base, so I don't think that Universal will sit on those titles, given the powerful software sales on Blu-Ray.

 

[Zombie James]

Is someone still going to post weekly sales or is that just moot at this point?

 

[The Main Event]

Is someone still going to post weekly sales or is that just moot at this point?

On the high-definition disc front, We Own the Night was the top-selling Blu-ray Disc release of the week, with Gone Baby Gone debuting at No. 2. Paramount Home Entertainment’s Transformers (2007 High-Def Disc Awards 5) was No. 1 on the HD DVD chart.

No numbers yet.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

Is someone still going to post weekly sales or is that just moot at this point?

They may not arrive today due to the holiday week. But I'm sure someone will get around to posting them whenever they arrive. I'm interesting in reading the mag to see what they have to say with all the past weeks events.

 

[FnordChan]

As far as releasing minor back catalog titles goes, I'm working under the assumption that if Universal and Paramount thought it was worth their while to release those titles on HD-DVD, then it's probably worth their while to release those titles on Blu-Ray. Their reasoning probably goes beyond just how much they're making on each disc - and I'm assuming that they're breaking even at the very least - and into broader issues: establishing a foothold on store shelves now that the war is over (especially considering that Universal is behind on that front), appealing to new Blu-Ray adopters by offering a broad selection (including back catalog releases) of titles to choose from, cashing in on pent-up demand for Universal and recent Paramount titles from existing Blu-Ray owners, and so on, and so forth.

I have faith in the ability of studios to make sure that they're getting their share of the profits, either short term or long term, and if they thought it was a good idea to release those titles on HD-DVD in the first place then I expect we'll be seeing them again on Blu-Ray before long. If those back catalog titles don't appear any time soon, I'll happily admit to being wrong on this one, but I believe it's in the best interests of the studios to make a broad range of titles available. I'm reminded of a discussion on the excellent blog Making Light regarding an Australian book chain's attempts to make small publishers pay them for the privilege of having their titles sold in the chain's stores. Here's the key bit:

I have a theory about what A&R is up to. Traditionally, when a publishing house is acquired by some big conglomerate, the bean counters take a look at the accounts, turn pale, and have a talk with the publisher. It has come to their attention, they say, that many books lose money, and most of the others make a small profit at most. Almost all the publisher’s profits come from a small number of bestselling titles. “True,” says the publisher. In that case, the beancounters reply, would it not make more sense to only publish the bestsellers?

I’m wondering whether A&R thinks they’d do better business if they only stocked the bestsellers. (If you look at the sixty-odd reader comments on the news story in question, you can see the actual reaction the book-buying public has when they find a poor selection on offer in a bookstore.)

This is coming from someone who is an editor for a major publisher, so I assume that they know what they're talking about, which jives with my gut reaction: the public demands a broad range of content, which means that publishers provide books great and small, stores buy titles beyond best sellers, and and that those facts probably translate into the studios deciding that Fletch is pretty important on Blu-Ray after all.

FnordChan

 

[mackaveli]

They may not arrive today due to the holiday week. But I'm sure someone will get around to posting them whenever they arrive. I'm interesting in reading the mag to see what they have to say with all the past weeks events.

numbers are here in the magazine. i can't find the pie charts to find the numbers it just shows the top 10 titles.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom022408/

Its on page 14

found the ratios on page 40

week: 73-27
YTD: 76-24
SI: 65-35

 

[OokieSpookie]

numbers are here in the magazine. i can't find the pie charts to find the numbers it just shows the top 10 titles.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom022408/

Its on page 14

found the ratios on page 40

week: 73-27
YTD: 76-24
SI: 65-35

OMG it is a come back!!!!

 

[ManaByte]

Got thrown out of Fry's today for telling someone that Toshiba discontinued HD-DVD while the commissioned sales peon was LYING to him and saying HD-DVD will last for years compared to the more expensive Blu-Ray.

 

[MechDX]

Got thrown out of Fry's today for telling someone that Toshiba discontinued HD-DVD while the commissioned sales peon was LYING to him and saying HD-DVD will last for years compared to the more expensive Blu-Ray.

Nico works at Fry's confirmed?

 

[KZObsessed]

Got thrown out of Fry's today for telling someone that Toshiba discontinued HD-DVD while the commissioned sales peon was LYING to him and saying HD-DVD will last for years compared to the more expensive Blu-Ray.

Took one for the team. Nice.

 

[Jim]

numbers are here in the magazine. i can't find the pie charts to find the numbers it just shows the top 10 titles.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom022408/

Front Page:

The ads (for the really obscure DVD releases) in HMM are so damn awesome. I have a free subscription coming, should be great to read during breakfast. This issue has a whole "Blu Skies" supplement in it with some interesting tidbits.

Got thrown out of Fry's today for telling someone that Toshiba discontinued HD-DVD while the commissioned sales peon was LYING to him and saying HD-DVD will last for years compared to the more expensive Blu-Ray.

Your good deed quota for the week is fulfilled.

 

[kaching]

SlaughterX works at Fry's confirmed?

Fixed.

 

[border]

"Format War's End Kills Bloggers' Main Topic"

It's almost an Onion headline :lol

 

[Nicodimas]

Nico works at Fry's confirmed?

Sometimes I wish I could go back to a job with no real responsibility..

 

[Raistlin]

Sometimes I wish I could go back to a job with no real responsibility..

ya rly

 

[OokieSpookie]

I posted this in the HD thread but will here also..
Supposedly this ties in with Weinstein

Genius Products is hinting it will release future titles in Blu-ray Disc.

The admission came during a Genius investors’ conference in Dana Point, Calif on Feb. 19, the same day that Toshiba said it would shortly stop making HD DVD players. Through the first several months of last year, Genius was releasing titles in HD DVD, but has stalled since then.
To the best of my knowledge, Genius hasn’t yet streeted a major title in high-def in 2008.

But it appears that Genius put on the high-def distribution brakes to see how the format war chips would fall.

“Whether its Blu-ray or HD DVD…that was solved today that HD DVD backed out,” said Genius CEO Trevor Drinkwater during the company’s presentation at the Roth Capital Partners event. “Blu-ray is the last format in, and that has cleared the way for the industry to get aggressive around next generation DVD.”

A spokesman for Genius said there weren’t immediate plans for the company to specify its high-definition strategy. Drinkwater likewise did not detail upcoming Genius high-def releases during his speech.

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=blog&blog_id=830000483&blog_post_id=570022257

 

[Rody]

I just found out the war is officially (and finally) over. Yay!

 

[Cosmic Bus]

I posted this in the HD thread but will here also..
Supposedly this ties in with Weinstein

There's nothing "supposed" about this. Genius is largely owned by the Weinsteins; it's their DVD distributor.

 

[Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew]

I just found out the war is officially (and finally) over. Yay!

Welcome to last-gen!

 

[Escape Goat]

Glad my 360 died and i was able to return it for store credit.

 

[Nicodimas]

There will be blood Hd-dvd canceled?

I just got that from Amazon on my preorder:

Hello from Amazon.com.

We are sorry to report that we will not be able to obtain the
following item(s) from your order

Damn.

On good news Hd-dvd is getting Godfather Triology and Charlie wilsons War.

http://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0014E917Y/

The outstanding price on godfather makes me worry a bit..

Also:

http://whv.warnerbros.com/WHVPORTAL/Portal/product.jsp?OID=48767

Shawshank!!!

 

[OokieSpookie]

There will be blood Hd-dvd canceled?

I just got that from Amazon on my preorder:

Hello from Amazon.com.

We are sorry to report that we will not be able to obtain the
following item(s) from your order

Damn.


Shawshank!!!

Hmmmm...now which of these has a snowball's chance in hell of coming....

http://whv.warnerbros.com/WHVPORTAL/Portal/product.jsp?OID=48767

or.....

http://whv.warnerbros.com/WHVPORTAL/Portal/product.jsp?OID=48768

 

[neojubei]

Have Diggnation make a video podcast about the end of the hd war?

Got thrown out of Fry's today for telling someone that Toshiba discontinued HD-DVD while the commissioned sales peon was LYING to him and saying HD-DVD will last for years compared to the more expensive Blu-Ray.

Anytime I see anyone buying an HD-DVD disc or player, I do not say anything it is there money. Maybe they know maybe they do not but I do not want to confront anyone I do not know in a store and prevent them from buying something, you just don't know who you might be dealing with.

 

[OokieSpookie]

Have Diggnation make a video podcast about the end of the hd war?




Anytime I see anyone buying an HD-DVD disc or player, I do not say anything it is there money. Maybe they know maybe they do not but I do not want to confront anyone I do not know in a store and prevent them from buying something, you just don't know who you might be dealing with.

If I see someone buying one, it is their loss.
But if someone is telling them bullshit trying to sell it to them then that is different.

 

[Midas]

I would tell them without hesitation.

neojubei, do you think they'll kill you or something? Sounds like that. :lol

 

[CoG]

Whoops. Should have thought twice about that vanity plate:

http://blogs.msdn.com/andypennell/archive/2008/02/20/why-hd-dvd-lost-the-format-war.aspx

It's all my fault. I'm terribly sorry. Something critical happened in October 2007 that I forgot to add to yesterday's Diary posting. Before CES 2007 I was going to do it, but I was worried that something bad might happen at CES so I didn't. After the Paramount announcement I figured that CES 2008 was going to be great for us (I mean what could possibly go wrong?), so I went and got myself the license place "HD DVD". Little did I know that right there and then I doomed my favorite format...

How does a developer afford a Porsche is what I really want to know.

I am a developer at Microsoft working on HDi, the interactivity layer for HD DVD (previously known as iHD). Prior to that I owned the Visual Studio Debugger for several years.

 

[Christoff Yurievich]

Hmmmm...now which of these has a snowball's chance in hell of coming....

http://whv.warnerbros.com/WHVPORTAL/Portal/product.jsp?OID=48767

or.....

http://whv.warnerbros.com/WHVPORTAL/Portal/product.jsp?OID=48768

both of those links killed my browser. Can you be a little more specific?

 

[OokieSpookie]

both of those links killed my browser. Can you be a little more specific?

Odd.
Anyway one link is for the blu version as opposed to the hd version that Nico posted.
The release date says November. (But it has been there for a long time and means nothing either way until an official announcement

 

[Christoff Yurievich]

ah. well, I agree that the odds of any new HD-DVD coming from a major studio at this point in time are slim at best. Maybe June (Godfather) but I think even that is pushing it.

 

[polyh3dron]

FAIL :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[Eiji]

HD-DVD

High Definition Defunct Video Disc

 

[Insane Metal]

HD-DVD

High Definition Defunct Video Disc

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[Doc Evils]

HD-DVD

High Definition Defunct Video Disc

:lol

 

[OokieSpookie]

ROFL I am watching WEC MMA on HDNet and they did their sponsor ad thing and it was Hd dvd by Toshiba.
Good stuff.

 

[Costanza]

Just saw this on the gaming side:

As a result of recent decisions made by Toshiba, Hollywood studios, and retailers, Microsoft plans to withdraw from HD DVD. Xbox will no longer manufacture new HD DVD players for the Xbox 360, but we will continue to provide standard product and warranty support for all Xbox 360 HD DVD Players in the market. As we stated earlier, we do not believe this decision will have any material impact on the Xbox 360 platform or our position in the marketplace. HD DVD is one of the several ways we offer a high definition experience to consumers and we will continue to give consumers the choice to enjoy digital distribution of high definition movies and TV shows directly to their living room, along with playback of the DVD movies they already own.

http://gamerscoreblog.com/team/archive/2008/02/23/HDDVDSupport.aspx

 

[Kagari]

ROFL I am watching WEC MMA on HDNet and they did their sponsor ad thing and it was Hd dvd by Toshiba.
Good stuff.

Classic. I do notice all the previously HD-DVD plastered On DVD now commercials have HD DVD removed.

 

[Ripclawe]

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117981491.html?categoryid=13&cs=1&nid=2562

"Bee Movie" hasn't yet generated any revenue for the company following a so-so box office perf of $126 million domestic and $159 million overseas. However, DreamWorks said the film was likely to end up being profitable after its homevid release.

That's partly attributable to a higher than average payment for TV rights, which Katzenberg said came thanks to star Jerry Seinfeld's stature on the tube, as well as payments from Toshiba for the company's allegiance to HD DVD.

Execs declined to confirm the widely reported $100 million payment that DreamWorks Animation received from Toshiba to ally itself with HD DVD last summer, though Katzenberg did grant that "we have been well compensated for our support."

Now that Toshiba has given up on the format, it's not clear when and whether DreamWorks Animation will make the switch to Blu-ray. Katzenberg said he is still waiting to talk with Toshiba execs about whether they expect his studio to release "Bee Movie" on HD DVD; the pic hits the homevideo market March 11. But he did confirm that the demise of the format won't impact Toshiba's payments to DWA.

"We made a deal," he said. "They honored the deal, and we have honored it."

ouch.