Ya'll want to know why the Ipsos State polls (and probably tracking) are pure and total shit. They adjusted their model for turnout in bizzaro land.
"In this scenario: Currently, Reuters/Ipsos estimates overall turnout at around 60%, although that rate varies among different demographic groups. Minority turnout, for example, is expected to be about 43%, while about 59% of African-American women and 69% of White men are projected to cast ballots."
So, let's break this down.
60% turnout? So, this election is going to have higher turnout than 2012? And 2008? And 2004? and 2000 alllllll the way back to 1968. That's the last time turnout hit 60%. But, okay, so let's say I buy that turnout is going to be 5 points from 2012.
Second problem. Minority turnout is going to be about 43%. I can give you individual breakdowns by year and race, but I'm going to do just an average:
2012: 51.9%
2008: 54.5%
2004: 49.8%
2000: 44.5%
So, they expect a lower minority participation rate than in any year since 2000. There is absolutely nothing whatsoever to suggest this is the case. We've seen an increase in registration among people of color, particularly Hispanic voters. We just had an election in which one candidate's coalition was predominately people of color and they easily came out and dominated a coalition that was white and disproportionally male.
Problem the 3rd, their model originally called for 70% turnout among all eligible white males. They adjusted it down to a far more reasonable 69%
This is from 2012. If 69% of white males vote, then the non-participation rate among registered, white male voters would be 3.2%. THREE PERCENT. Not only that, but overall participation would have to jump by almost 7% among white men.
Problem the 4th, that participation rate among African American women is disgusting, and anyone who came up with that number is bad and should feel bad. In 2012, African American women broke the 70% participation rate for the first time ever. As in....ever. No other group has done that. But, somehow, Hillary's best demographic, the corner stone of her coalition is suddenly going to stay home when the alternative is DONALD TRUMP? The man with an approval rating among African Americans so small that it looks huge in his tiny little baby hands?
Bitch please. IPSOS, get your shit together. Find Jesus. Do something, girl.
