Eh, his dismissal of the Russia involvement in our election devalues his 'street cred' to me, but you want to buy-in, go for it.
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Trump on track to win re-election. (WaPo Opinion)
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Eh, his dismissal of the Russia involvement in our election devalues his 'street cred' to me, but you want to buy-in, go for it.
dr3upmushroom
Banned
Those are just the people who approve of him, Republicans of all sorts will still vote for him in the end.
I mean of course Trump can win re-election. That's a given and he's the incumbent.
But we are a long ways away from 2020 and anything can happen. Economy, war, anything. Midterms will be a real time checkpoint in checking in on progress though and seeing what needs to be done.
But we are a long ways away from 2020 and anything can happen. Economy, war, anything. Midterms will be a real time checkpoint in checking in on progress though and seeing what needs to be done.
legacyzero
Banned
Ugh, no. Id be behind that idea, but from what Ive seen of her, she has no charisma. No excitement. Get somebody firey in there. Rattles the base, fuck decorum, can speak to multiple issues (yes, even the WWC in the firewall), be the anti-Trump, etc. Obama was that, and we need more of it. And surprisingly, non of the would-be candidates so far, have that fire IMO. Perhaps Elizabeth Warren? Bernie is the most popular politician in America, be even he lacks the fire Obama had. He comes across as crotchety most of the time which hurts him I think.
We need to stop arbitrarily anointing candidates, and vet a real powerhouse for the bar that Obama set.
Yes please! Person who ties against worst Trump in any matchup so far... "save us".
entremet
Member
I think the Russia is still amazingly complex and early myself. I do believe they interfered. That is clear. The lack of clarity right now is how effective that interfering was with actual voting patterns.
I think the voter suppression laws had a bigger effect and that was not a Russia thing.
SDCowboy
Member
The president and vise-president being old enough that they may both not survive the term is not a very good ticket. In fact, it's scary to even think about.
I mean it was still a 50/50 chance of being right, it's hardly proof of insightfulness.
That said, I was badly mistaken last election and that is why I won't be taking Trump being finished as granted and I expect Democrats to not pull any punches. I grossly underestimated how much people hated Hillary Clinton.
Aka white people. 75% of the white people you know will vote for the fucker in hopes of lower taxes. And they fucking turn out and dont have suppression and gerrymandering working against them. Same goes for virtually any gop candidate. Electoral college needs to go and if dems ever have a full majority again they need to axe that shit immediately.
Twice in the last 16 Years the presidency was stolen because of fucking white people in the Midwest.
I hope you believe it because it's a fucking fact. Jesus. There's no question at this point.
So, basically, find the unicorn.
If only. He doesn't seem to be interested in running.
I will keep calling him and telling him to run. I worked for him in 2014. He never answers but he knows.
entremet
Member
Well, I read his posts too. He was on the money with the analysis, not just the prediction itself. But really, any Trump winning rhetoric was clamped down in the political threads by the True Believers.
Yes, we already found out as such. I think the argument Renta was making is the effect they had on the election itself.
Byakuya769
Member
The same thing. This piece is weak and making a projection three years out. Conflating closely lost popular votes with a 3MM vote romp where Trump won in narrow margins in states he needed in a low probability scenario is also glaring.
And what about Warren?
You're not wrong. But, 2020 will not be 2016, its a whole different ball game, Trump is that awful and there won't be Clinton. But yeah, that kind of cockiness that "lol I'm right and you don't know what you're talking about" should not be repeated again because I do feel like there was that kind of attitude even within the Clinton camp, that she had this in the bag.
Patrick Bateman
Member
If Trump gets reelected I'd be more disappointed in the American voters than I was in 2004.
Then the US can seriously fuck themselves and build a huge wall around their country and stop annoying everyone else.
Then the US can seriously fuck themselves and build a huge wall around their country and stop annoying everyone else.
Wow, one opinion agrees surely that changes everything.
At the moment that's what I'd guess too.
Look how the Democrats got split over Bernie and Hillary.
Now imagine far, far more candidates pulling voters in all different directions, while the conservatives vote for Trump down the line.
Of course things can change but if I were to bet I'd guess he'd win re-election.
Look how the Democrats got split over Bernie and Hillary.
Now imagine far, far more candidates pulling voters in all different directions, while the conservatives vote for Trump down the line.
Of course things can change but if I were to bet I'd guess he'd win re-election.
No, maybe now he tries to make that argument, but I remember how incredibly dismissive he was of the whole thing in the beginning when it was becoming clearer and clearer Russia had a significant hand in trying to influence our election. It was an echoing of fucking Noam Chomsky, like 90% of the stuff he says, but like I said earlier, it's whatever. Buy-in if you want.
Bernie really didn't split the party though. More Bernie supporters, like myself, voted for Clinton than Clinton supporters voted for Obama. They'll vote for the remaining candidate when it comes down to it. And even if they are less than thrilled, Trump wears is ugliness on his sleeve and at that point, for 4 years. They'll know what the alternative is, there will be no guessing at that point.
Most people around here have given up on midterms from what I can tell.
He won't be able to help himself, of course he'll run.
Though there's a chance he'll run, win, then step aside soon after to let Pence or whoever run the show, since he only wanted to win re-election, not go through another 4 years.
He still managed to chisel off a number of votes for Hillary though. And I don't have any faith in people putting their feelings aside and voting the one candidate to defeat Trump, not at the moment at least.
Trump's #1 motivation at this point is very clear. He wants to destroy Obama's legacy. It doesn't matter that he hates the job. There is no way in hell that he's going to be able to live with himself if the Black man was able to do 8 years and he could only do 4.
funkystudent
Member
US Left is too busy fighting itself to be successful right now.
If Russia really helped with exaggerating the division between Hillary and Bernie supporters then that was equally as destructive as giving Trump the rub. Dems are effectively taken out.
If Russia really helped with exaggerating the division between Hillary and Bernie supporters then that was equally as destructive as giving Trump the rub. Dems are effectively taken out.
skullmuffins
Banned
cmon, white people suck but it's not that dire (unless you're in the sticks, in which case, my condolences). trump got 57-58% of the white vote in 2016.
TurnipFritters
Member
Moore has nothing to do with Trump, he's been doing this shtick for literally a decade now.
legacyzero
Banned
Hard to argue with this. And yeah, its a shame theirs still a rift in our own party
Chmpocalypse
Blizzard
"Third, despite dismal poll numbers, Trump enters the contest with a job approval rating that is certainly at least marginally better than what the current national polls would suggest. Throughout the 2016 election, most analysts tracked the national polling, which failed to capture Trumps strength in key battleground states. Current surveys continue to understate his support."
Russia.
If you don't take their meddling, from bots to hackers, into account, I can't take the analysis seriously.
Russia.
If you don't take their meddling, from bots to hackers, into account, I can't take the analysis seriously.
TurnipFritters
Member
The midterms aren't a lost cause but they are an uphill battle, the gerrymandering for the House makes it difficult to make progress, and the seats open on the Senate are overwhelmingly Democrats. It's not great, but every little bit we can carve out helps.
Congrats? I mean, if this is on track for re-election, there's zero hope left for this country.
Really though, during the election he won by razor thin margins after a final week bullshit surprise from Comey swung the election. While his oddds of winning weren't as bad as it was made out to be (as 538 predicted), people confidently predicting a win were full of shit up until that point.
He's not on track for re-election, but is certainly always within striking distance considering our better understanding of the current demographics, voter supression, Russia, and other factors.
I could definitely see Franken/Warren being a sucessful ticket, although I do wonder if Warren/Franken would work better.
Dragon Puncher
Member
If the democrats win the midterms, which seems likely considering they have already flipped 6 seats in special elections this year, Trump is gonna get his ass impeached in 2018.
While this will be shit for republicans, Trump staying in power is also bad. When the president constantly blames and public shames republicans, it leads to even direhard supporters changing their alliance from the party to Trump himself. This has already happened according to pools, where generally has a higher approval rating than his party.
So getting rid of Trump will also, down the line, keep the Republican Party from imploding on itself, which seems like a real possibility at this point.
While this will be shit for republicans, Trump staying in power is also bad. When the president constantly blames and public shames republicans, it leads to even direhard supporters changing their alliance from the party to Trump himself. This has already happened according to pools, where generally has a higher approval rating than his party.
So getting rid of Trump will also, down the line, keep the Republican Party from imploding on itself, which seems like a real possibility at this point.
WrenchNinja
Member
I dont think the world could survive 8 years of this. Hell I don't think 45 could with how unhealthy he is.
entremet
Member
Trump seems to have hardy genes, tho.
He barely sleeps. He eats a fast food diet. He doesn't exercise at all. And he's made to 71.
Interestingly, he doesn't drink or smoke. He's been a teetotaller for decades.
He's gonna be one of those old dudes who lives a long time even with his terrible habits I think lol.
King Tubby
Member
This is really premature given that we're still 3 years out from the next election, but the Democrats have given me little reason to have confidence in them.
He deals with the stress by spending a quarter of his time golfing, he'll be fine.
He deals with the stress by spending a quarter of his time golfing, he'll be fine.
astroturfing
Member
thread title almost gave me an aneurysm and maybe its still coming so it was nice knowing you GAF if the worst happens, take care of each other.
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