Was exactly my thought....Rayman should have just come out when it was supposed too, but they got greedy and it bit them in the ass. Ancel needs to jump ship ASAP.
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Ubisoft's shares plunge 22%
- Thread starter shinobi602
- Start date
Was exactly my thought....Rayman should have just come out when it was supposed too, but they got greedy and it bit them in the ass. Ancel needs to jump ship ASAP.
SEGAvangelist
Gold Member
A Ubisoft Tom Clancy game getting a massive delay and then resurfacing nothing like the original vision?
Given the huge amount of money already spent marketing this game, as one of the premier games of this fall, and aligning themselves very squarely with Sony as a co marketed PS4 game, this must have been delayed because it badly needed it, nothing with balls or fiscal quarter targets, no other reason.
Yeah, it must have been in bad shape. I can't imagine Sony is too upset since it's release in April helps Sony through a AAA game drought around that time. Watch Dogs and Destiny will fill that space nicely until The Order is ready.
Deadly Cyclone
Pride of Iowa State
So, what's the best way to buy some stock these days? At 8 Euro I could buy some and hold it for a bit...
Aquamarine
Member
Ubisoft's Fiscal Year begins April 1st, 2013 and ends March 31st, 2014.
1) Before, with a major revenue source like Watch_Dogs:
Ubisoft's targeted sales goal was €1,420 million - €1,450 million
Ubisoft's targeted non-IFRS operating income goal was €110 million and €125 million
2) Now, without the major revenue source:
Ubisoft's targeted sales goal is €995 million - €1,045 million
Ubisoft's targeted non-IFRS operating LOSS goal is €(70) million and €(40) million
3) Ubisoft has admitted that Splinter Cell (a major IP stable) has underperformed, creating doubt into the stability of other Ubisoft IPs
4) Ubisoft has jeopardized their bundle deal with Sony by delaying Watch_Dogs, putting a future source of potential profits into question
It really is the perfect storm of Ubisoft screwups at the moment. No wonder shares are down so much.
1) Before, with a major revenue source like Watch_Dogs:
Ubisoft's targeted sales goal was €1,420 million - €1,450 million
Ubisoft's targeted non-IFRS operating income goal was €110 million and €125 million
2) Now, without the major revenue source:
Ubisoft's targeted sales goal is €995 million - €1,045 million
Ubisoft's targeted non-IFRS operating LOSS goal is €(70) million and €(40) million
3) Ubisoft has admitted that Splinter Cell (a major IP stable) has underperformed, creating doubt into the stability of other Ubisoft IPs
4) Ubisoft has jeopardized their bundle deal with Sony by delaying Watch_Dogs, putting a future source of potential profits into question
It really is the perfect storm of Ubisoft screwups at the moment. No wonder shares are down so much.
BRocknRolla
Member
I'm sure they knew delaying Watch_Dogs (Edit: And I suppose The Agency, though there was no real date yet announced) would be bad for the company, but I doubt they imagined a drop this big. I personally continue to have zero faith in Ubisoft. Just because you're huge and employ massive amounts of employees doesn't mean you're headed in the right direction. We'll see what this gen holds for Ubi.
Because what reason do we have to believe that Ubisoft are incompetent outside of this? If some dopey as fuck analyst decides that this alone is enough reason to sell shares in a company then it's the fucking analyst who's incompetent, Ubisofts track record for the last few years has been incredible, they are perhaps the most capable third party publisher in the industry.
Want a good industry example of incompetence?
Microsoft.
AHA-Lambda
Member
That's not how stocks work. Funnily enough, much like big companies, stock and shares are only looking for short term profit, if investors hear bad news like the delay of a major AAA title for the fall release, it's bad news for them.
Bad news drives down share prices, so unless they want to stick with Ubi for the long haul, they'll sell so they don't lose money.
None of this has anything to do with long term business strategies or portfolios; it's why you'll see some analysts say a certain company is undervalued relative to its trading value, as they are taking into account the long term picture of the company and the stock price will reflect that in the future.
EDIT: sorry, read that as "should take this a sign"
Red Mage
Member
Yep. I think the people who are confused about why this hurt them so much don't realize that it wasn't just Watch Dogs, but the under performance of other IPs AND them pissing off their partners.
I think they'd like to have two big open-world games a year, so even though it seems like it might hurt now, Watch_Dogs in the Spring and Assassin's Creed in Fall could be good for them, with their smaller titles like Child of Light and Valiant Hearts, and other games like The Crew, Just Dance, Tom Clancy games, etc. adding to the 2014 schedule.
I mean just over 2 weeks ago we were learning they've invested 373M$ to create 500 new jobs here in Montréal (Warner Brothers Interactive also invested 63M$ and create 100 new jobs). I don't think it's in their plan to not release two big Ubisoft Montréal games a year and few smaller projects.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
IIRC, Prince of Persia, Splinter Cell, Ghost Recon, Brothers in Arms, and Rainbow Six each went through so many reboots and so much development hell that Ubisoft managed to kill or heavily diminish all of those series in this gen.
They've done really well at keeping Assassin's Creed and Just Dance selling, but I don't think they've shown that much competence elsewhere.
edit: Far Cry 3 was a success as well so there is that, but they delayed that for an entire year as well.
Bronetta
Ask me about the moon landing or the temperature at which jet fuel burns. You may be surprised at what you learn.
AyaisMUsikWhore
Member
Screaming
sixteen-bit
Member
You just know that's getting modded into the PC version.
BloodMoney
Banned
Thanks for the stock tip shinobi.
Just purchased 500 shares.
Just purchased 500 shares.
cripterion
Member
Serves them right.
BloodMoney
Banned
Are you in the US? If so, your online account will need to allow foreign exchange trades (uncommon). The stock is available as an ADR state side though, (call sign UBSFY) which anyone should be able to purchase as a limit order.
Visualante2
Member
I'm not sure AC4 will perform as well as they expect either. A lot of people will be on the fence as to whether they should wait to play the next gen version, and those who do go next gen will focus on first party efforts perhaps shooters.
I think JD4 will keep the lights on, though.
I think JD4 will keep the lights on, though.
Rayman is a small game. Always was going to be. Splinter Cell under performing, the death of Tom Clancy perhaps hurts their investment on Tom Clancy games long term. They are starting to look like a THQ after having such a strong last year and investing in new IP. I wonder if it's the EA cycle. They'll double down and go hard on AAA sequels.
IISANDERII
Member
Not sure how I feel about Splinter Cell's disappointing sales; looks like a very good game but the theme of the game seems very off-putting.
GrizzleBoy
Banned
Wow.........
HawksWinStanley
Member
They'll get a nice boost from Stick of Truth. That game is going to be a sleeper hit.
Far Cry 3 says they're at peak popularity.
I've seen through their bullshit since 2007, but it's clear that the "wider audience" wants more Ubisoft open-world filler bullshit, and they can't get enough of it.
It's nice to dream.
They've barely even marketed it. That thing's gonna bomb for a game based on a major IP
LQX
Member
How did releasing it on multiple platforms instead of one bite them in the ass?
grosvenor_92
Member
Well if every games not named AC4 does well enough they'll be fine otherwise I don't see them surviving on just AC
They'll be fine.
Ascended Saiyan
Banned
Shares are only worth $2 ?
:-o
:-o
Motley Grue
Banned
Investors, buy TTWO instead, it's going to break out soon on gangbusters GTA V results and maybe some secrets we haven't been told yet. Plus have you noticed all the crazy sales 2K has offered this quarter? Gearing up for monster revenue, I say! I am long.
tehrik-e-insaaf
Member
This was a strategic delay IMHO - Ubi is worried that the IP will underperform - by pushing this release out management gets a small rope/lifeline until Q1 of the next fiscal year which gives them time to prop up earnings and work on marketing
Here is the tough part though: if Watchdogs underperforms when it finally launches - I forecast a >50% drop in the stock by May or June of next year. At that point it wouldn't surprise me if EA tries to buyout Ubi - the French Government probably won't try and stop it from happening.
Activision, Take Two, and Square Enix aren't really in a position to buy Ubi... EA is the only one that might have the cash to do so... Sega and Namco are the only others with the ability to do so but whether they would have any interest is another question entirely...
Here is the tough part though: if Watchdogs underperforms when it finally launches - I forecast a >50% drop in the stock by May or June of next year. At that point it wouldn't surprise me if EA tries to buyout Ubi - the French Government probably won't try and stop it from happening.
Activision, Take Two, and Square Enix aren't really in a position to buy Ubi... EA is the only one that might have the cash to do so... Sega and Namco are the only others with the ability to do so but whether they would have any interest is another question entirely...
I laughed way to hard.
But yeah not very smart move from Ubi. I have a feeling a lot of people will get fired be prepared.
Its amazing in a post-COD world ubisoft has not been able to leverage Rainbow Six and Ghost Recon franchises in any meaningful way financial or artistic. Really they could have made RS a slower COD game (which it was anyway). Redstorm was so talented in their prime.
The last Ghost Recon was a mess. A bad Gears of Duty clone. When the original game style of ghost recon would have been a good seller. It just needed a tech update and tweaks.
Of all companies Ubi was in the best position to go after Activisions market share. Instead they focused on churning out Ass Creed yearly.
The last Ghost Recon was a mess. A bad Gears of Duty clone. When the original game style of ghost recon would have been a good seller. It just needed a tech update and tweaks.
Of all companies Ubi was in the best position to go after Activisions market share. Instead they focused on churning out Ass Creed yearly.
BloodMoney
Banned
do tell
I'm slightly worried about AC4. I'm sure it will sell millions and be profitable, but will it reach Ubisoft's expectations? Will it grow the franchise or at least maintain its popularity? Anecdotally, I'm just not feeling there's as much hype for AC4 as there was for AC3, even though Ubisoft's been marketing it for months already, which is a bit crazy. On the other hand, Watch Dogs being delayed will give AC4 breathing room this holiday. I dunno... will be interesting to see.
BloodMoney
Banned
I dunno... as an outsider who has never played an AC game, AC4 appeals a lot more to me than AC3 did.
Lostconfused
Member
Can't have too many good games.
Damn I wish Splinter Cell performed better. Ubisoft deserves it.
This might be a good time to buy into Ubisoft though.
Did you play it? It was a great game.
I loved Ghost Recon Future Soldier. One of my favorite third person shooters.
And the only problem with Rainbow Six right now is that they haven't made Vegas 3 yet.
This might be a good time to buy into Ubisoft though.
Did you play it? It was a great game.
I loved Ghost Recon Future Soldier. One of my favorite third person shooters.
And the only problem with Rainbow Six right now is that they haven't made Vegas 3 yet.
I agree with that, AC3 seems to have hurt the franchise.