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[diffusionx]

I get the GamePass thing, but MS is also selling early launch to get sales even from GP subscribers, and that worked well for Starfield. Starfield also debuted at #1 in these same charts. The game is also a complete dud on Steam and MS is deleting negative reviews on Xbox.

Forza status = bomba

 

[Doctor Hades]

Most people buying Forza Motorsport will be on PC, where game sales are digital only, and on Xbox Series X|S I would wager that the majority of people will be split between GamePass and digital. So it does not surprise me that the physical sales of the boxed game are not that great.

This is exactly what Microsoft want!

 

[RoboFu]

Yea yes ..lords of the fallen, the grinch and rabbids… we all know the UK has no taste…

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Imagine having your brand new racing game absolutely destroyed by Mario Kart 8 Deluxe in late 2023.

Mario Kart games are evergreen, you can play them forever

I'm a bit surprised Detective Pikachu Returns just vanished like that, I figured there would be more people who were interested in this sequel after the movie was so successful

 

[Mowcno]

Most people buying Forza Motorsport will be on PC, where game sales are digital only, and on Xbox Series X|S I would wager that the majority of people will be playing the game on GamePass. So it does not surprise me that the physical sales of the game are not that great.

This is exactly what Microsoft want!

 

[Three]

Jim Ryan and Phil Spencer: "Alright teams please send me a report on how our games are doing in terms of sales in the last month."

Analysts: *Provide data for games worldwide*

JR AND PS: "WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS?!? WHY THE FUCK WOULD WE CARE ABOUT HOW A GAME SOLD IN US/EU/ASIA/OCEANIA?!

THIS IS NOT AMATEUR HOUR, REDO THE REPORT AND ONLY INCLUDE STATS FROM THE UK AND I ONLY WANT PHYSICAL SALES. ITS THE ONLY GOOD METRIC FOR GAMES PERFORMACE"

You think a racing game did better outside of the UK and xbox's second biggest market? If performance isn't great there it's not really going to be better elsewhere. The UK is a mainstay for racing games and xbox.

 

[Clintizzle]

You really wasted your time typing this mess?

What are you even doing?

Meth.

 

[Flutta]

Another previously successful IP that has been badly mismanaged by MS.

Does anybody really trust them with the future of all those ABK IPs?

Yes, the green rats do. People with common sense don’t. Everything they touch turn to shit. Their track record proves it. it’s simple really, AKB is next in line. Wonder who’s MS next pray is . Feel sorry for that pub or studio tho.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Yeah they can't backtrack now. Their only option is to make subscription unattractive - by upping the price too much or by only giving games to the highest tier (they have already started deploying the second strategy by introducing Game Pass Core.)

Exactly what I'm thinking but I don't know how this helps the Xbox brand to sell more consoles.

If I'm Phil, the only thing I'm thinking about right now is how to sell more consoles.

Maybe try to get Star Wars Outlaws exclusive... but that's probably not a needle mover either. At this point in the generation, the only likely needle movers are Red Dead 3 and GTA6.

 

[Clintizzle]

You think a racing game did better outside of the UK and xbox's second biggest market? If performance isn't great there it's not really going to be better elsewhere. The UK is a mainstay for racing games and xbox.

This is bigger than racing games. Drawing any conclusions from the boxed sales in the UK only us an absolute waste of time.

I sometimes forget the forum I'm on and regret even making that joke.

 

[Alex Scott]

Avowed and Hellblade won't move the needle at all and CoD 24 won't be exclusive and I believe it even still has a marketing deal with Sony.

Again, it's time to point emphasis on the fact that it's going to be a VERY difficult 6 months for Microsoft I'm not sure how they manage Sony widening the gap this holiday season. The mindshare lost here is going to make 2022 look like nothing.

CoD deal ends this year.

 

[Flabagast]

Where the fuck is starfield?

Putting in on the gamepass was dumb as fuck. It must be the worst selling Bethesda game in nearly 20 years

 

[Heisenberg007]

Avowed and Hellblade won't move the needle at all and CoD 24 won't be exclusive and I believe it even still has a marketing deal with Sony.

Again, it's time to point emphasis on the fact that it's going to be a VERY difficult 6 months for Microsoft I'm not sure how they manage Sony widening the gap this holiday season. The mindshare lost here is going to make 2022 look like nothing.

I think we can all safely assume that the mindshare has been lost with the below-par performance and score of Redfall, Starfield, and Forza. Spider-Man 2's popularity and hype will make an even bigger dent.

What's worse is that there are no Xbox games lined up now. Unless I'm mistaken, there are no Xbox games with no confirmed release dates. That'll also have a big impact for people making their purchase decision this holiday.

 

[Alex Scott]

Yeah they can't backtrack now. Their only option is to make subscription unattractive - by upping the price too much or by only giving games to the highest tier (they have already started deploying the second strategy by introducing Game Pass Core.)

It seems like all subscription services leads to the same place. Sooner or later it was going to be inevitable.

 

[Heisenberg007]

CoD deals ends this year.

2024.

 

[Heisenberg007]

This is bigger than racing games. Drawing any conclusions from the boxed sales in the UK only us an absolute waste of time.

I sometimes forget the forum I'm on and regret even making that joke.

It is only partial data at best, true, but unfortunately, this is the only type of data we get.

Yearly NPD charts may shed some more light, but Microsoft and Circana have been sharing less and less information, so there's really very little to go with.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

CoD deals ends this year.

Thanks, some articles had 2024 in the headline, but you're correct the last game covered is CoD 3.

That being said, at this point in the generation, that CoD userbase is pretty cemented. It's not going to be a needle mover. They can put CoD 24 on GamePass Day 1, but the reality is they're just going to lose a lot of money by doing so.

Look at MLB The Show 23 that is on Gamepass, but people still B2P it on PS5 year in and year out. They're not buying an Xbox just for MLB even if it is "free" on gamepass. That tells me that the biggest audience who benefits from this are people who already have an xbox and already have gamepass and are CoD players who will not have to buy it annually anymore. But that is tremendous revenue lost with nothing gained.

Then you look at PC gamepass and it becomes a bigger problem. That's a huge segment of gamers who may run GamePass rather than buy the game and even if they subscribe year in and year out, you're getting them to spend 50 dollars more a year for WAY more content, you're still going to have to raise the price.

 

[Hollowpoint5557]

I was very excited about Forza but when I heard about the progression system I noped out. I had it pre-installed and everything and just ended up deleting it before even launching it once. Go back to Forza Motorsport 4 with better graphics and physics and I'll come back.

 

[KrisB]

There would be an immediate backlash if they stop day one games on gamepass. I'm sure they'd lose 5 million subscribers within 3 months. It's easily one of the biggest selling points.

Yep that’s the problem. Once they’ve set that standard, the consumer expects it.

I know myself I would likely cancel if they stopped doing AAA day one releases as the value just wouldn’t be there anymore.

To be honest I’m actually enjoying the game so far. I’m about 5 or so hours in and haven’t had any issues. (Xbox version).

 

[Ansphn]

This spring and summer there were a lot of discussions around the decline of Xbox Series sales.

People were convinced that Redfall, Starfield, and Forza would shift that narrative, but there was no chance of that.

I feel like we live in this weird twilight zone where we'll have a fierce debate on here and you fast forward and the people who were on the wrong side of the debate will say, "Of course, it's like this, that's obvious"


So what is happening in real-time, is it trolling or hopium? What?

Opinion overload. It's so easy to make an opinion online and completely forget what your opinion was and you were wrong.

 

[Reckheim]

I'd prefer to see hardware sales.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

This is bigger than racing games. Drawing any conclusions from the boxed sales in the UK only us an absolute waste of time.

I sometimes forget the forum I'm on and regret even making that joke.

We don't have full market data like we used to in the old days. We have to extrapolate based on what we can see. The complete ghosting on launch on the UK chart is indicative of serious problems, but let's look at the Xbox best selling and most played:

Most played games - Microsoft Store

Forza is 11th and it JUST came out.

Top paid games - Microsoft Store

Top paid games – Shop these 90 items and explore Microsoft Store for great apps, games, laptops, PCs, and other devices.

www.microsoft.com

Here Forza is 5th for the premium add-on bundle and 11th overall.

Steam Search

store.steampowered.com

Forza is pretty low on the list relative to how recent it just came out.

Amazon Best Sellers: Best Xbox Series X & S Consoles, Games & Accessories

View the best video games in Amazon Best Sellers. Browse the 100 top video games to identify the most popular games. Get useful information on what other people are buying.

www.amazon.com

It's 98th on the Amazon best selling list for XBOX only.

There are no signs of success anywhere. You can ignore that as a lack of data, but any real success and you would see greater signs of success here.

 

[StealthGoblin]

One of the major arguments for justifying putting a lot of 1st party games into Gamepass and making the numbers stack up was that the games would still sell physical and digital copies and would claw the budget back while adding users to gamepass.

Based on worldwide data that we've seen, the sales element of that isn't holding water anymore.

So we find ourselves in a position where a games success will be almost entirely about how many users it adds or retains on Gamepass. That's very risky and when you have bought two large publishers and have a large 1st party studio structure, it becomes very, very risky.

And even riskier if you've entered into a second party deal or even a third party exclusive deal.

 

[Taycan77]

Yes there is a Gamepass effect but Forza Motorsport is in a really difficult position. Forza Horizon has stole it’s lunch on Xbox, Gran Turismo is the go to sim/online racing title on console, while PC has plenty of sim options.

Midday in Europe FM has under 2,000 players on Steam and is peaking around the 3k-3.5k mark.

 

[Negotiator101]

This spring and summer there were a lot of discussions around the decline of Xbox Series sales.

People were convinced that Redfall, Starfield, and Forza would shift that narrative, but there was no chance of that.

I feel like we live in this weird twilight zone where we'll have a fierce debate on here and you fast forward and the people who were on the wrong side of the debate will say, "Of course, it's like this, that's obvious"


So what is happening in real-time, is it trolling or hopium? What?

What's to debate exactly, you're talking nonsense simple as that. I'm not sure what your post is implying exactly? Games on a subscription service are not going to sell like games that aren't, are you not aware of this? I'm pretty sure the narrative has been from the fanboys who all live on fantasy Island was that Xbox had no game's right? Now it's you all saying the game's aren't selling or they're shit, so the only ones changing the narrative are you lot

 

[Gavon West]

hum...ouch?

Boxed though?

 

[Clintizzle]

We don't have full market data like we used to in the old days. We have to extrapolate based on what we can see. The complete ghosting on launch on the UK chart is indicative of serious problems, but let's look at the Xbox best selling and most played:

Most played games - Microsoft Store

Forza is 11th and it JUST came out.

Top paid games - Microsoft Store

Top paid games – Shop these 90 items and explore Microsoft Store for great apps, games, laptops, PCs, and other devices.

www.microsoft.com

Here Forza is 5th for the premium add-on bundle and 11th overall.

Steam Search

store.steampowered.com

Forza is pretty low on the list relative to how recent it just came out.

Amazon Best Sellers: Best Xbox Series X & S Consoles, Games & Accessories

View the best video games in Amazon Best Sellers. Browse the 100 top video games to identify the most popular games. Get useful information on what other people are buying.

www.amazon.com

It's 98th on the Amazon best selling list for XBOX only.

There are no signs of success anywhere. You can ignore that as a lack of data, but any real success and you would see greater signs of success here.

Did you expect forza to do better than Fortnite, CoD, Madden, Minecraft and Roblox in the most played for Xbox? That's crazy.

Steam and Amazon figures are explained by GamePass.

 

[TheGodfather07]

People keep saying it's because of gamepass but look at the splits of 3rd party games that ain't on gamepass. Xbox has a small share everytime. Games just ain't selling on xbox anymore.

 

[Clintizzle]

What's to debate exactly, you're talking nonsense simple as that. I'm not sure what your post is implying exactly? Games on a subscription service are not going to sell like games that aren't, are you not aware of this? I'm pretty sure the narrative has been from the fanboys who all live on fantasy Island was that Xbox had no game's right? Now it's you all saying the game's aren't selling or they're shit, so the only ones changing the narrative are you lot

Some of the posts in this thread are absolutely insane haha.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

It seems like all subscription services leads to the same place. Sooner or later it was going to be inevitable.

All the streaming services made this big deal about putting content on their streaming service while movies were still in the theater. It blew up in their faces, so they adjusted course.

Disney always had this model. It's the same model as the Disney Channel. The biggest difference is that they're decoupled from Cable, so they don't have to pay cable companies, but their costs have also gone up and the subscription service isn't retaining people enough. This is why they don't drop shows all at once like Netflix does. They generally have one big show at a time and maybe 3-4 big shows a year.

Mandalorian S3 (85 down from a 93)
Secret Invasion (54)
Ahsoka (86)
Loki S2 (S2 is down on RT to an 85 from a 92 in S1)

They've cut budgets and quality is down across the board, so people are canceling.

That's what we're going to see with GamePass and what we've honestly already been seeing with GamePass. The next studio that asks Microsoft to delay a game, probably won't get much time. They delayed Starfield missing the holidays in 22 and honestly, for basically nothing. They have nothing for the holidays for 3 of the last 4 holiday seasons.

Sony gets a lot of flack for having a really anemic year with first party, but they were really smart with how they structured the year for 1st and 3rd party and most importantly they have a banger for the holidays, just as they did last year.

 

[Clintizzle]

People keep saying it's because of gamepass but look at the splits of 3rd party games that ain't on gamepass. Xbox has a small share everytime. Games just ain't selling on xbox anymore.

Only absolute fanboys will claim that 3rd Party games sell just as well (total quantity) on Xbox. Playstation has a considerably larger user base so will naturally sell more.

 

[Moriarty1889]

That is pitiful! However, this is the result of putting AAA exclusives on gamepass day one. NO ONE is going to buy them when they can play them through a sub. MS is killing sales of their own games just to make gamepass the be all end all of Xbox.

 

[Three]

Did you expect forza to do better than Fortnite, CoD, Madden, Minecraft and Roblox in the most played for Xbox? That's crazy.

At launch week? Yes. Even mediocre games like High on life often do that.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

One of the major arguments for justifying putting a lot of 1st party games into Gamepass and making the numbers stack up was that the games would still sell physical and digital copies and would claw the budget back while adding users to gamepass.

Based on worldwide data that we've seen, the sales element of that isn't holding water anymore.

So we find ourselves in a position where a games success will be almost entirely about how many users it adds or retains on Gamepass. That's very risky and when you have bought two large publishers and have a large 1st party studio structure, it becomes very, very risky.

And even riskier if you've entered into a second party deal or even a third party exclusive deal.

With the purchase of ABK, Microsoft is going to step back from 3rd party deals for GamePass games. They'll still happen but they'll be fewer and further between. They'll start by offering 3rd parties significantly less money for their titles and 3rd parties will tell them to pound sand at least for newer releases. GamePass will be Microsoft + Zenimax + ABK and some more catalog type stuff from 3rd parties.

 

[Pelta88]

Starfield, Forza, and Redfall point to a severe deficit in talent and leadership. They also showcase what happens to ip when you reduce their scope to fit a streaming service.

 

[Unknown?]

Did you expect forza to do better than Fortnite, CoD, Madden, Minecraft and Roblox in the most played for Xbox? That's crazy.

Steam and Amazon figures are explained by GamePass.

Back in the day, in Europe, it absolutely would have been #1.

 

[Pelta88]

CoD deal ends this year.

Given the position they documented to regulators, I don't see how the Marketing deal effects anything.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

People keep saying it's because of gamepass but look at the splits of 3rd party games that ain't on gamepass. Xbox has a small share everytime. Games just ain't selling on xbox anymore.

They've conditioned core gamers to wait to play games on GamePass. It was the same with MoviePass... they didn't realize that the core subscribers would go to see SO many movies if they were "free". They thought they'd balance it out with people who didn't go very often, which never made sense to begin with.

If I'm a gamer who spends 300-350 dollars a year on games (B2P) and I get GamePass Ultimate so I don't have to buy games and spend 200 dollars on GamePass, I'm not buying ANY games unless they're out of this world type games. But worse is the gamers who would have spent 500 dollars a year on games who are now only spending 200. It's value destructive and it creates a new psychology around buying games.

Digital was doing the same thing, which is why now you see they barely discount digital games anymore on console. They stay the same price for years like Nintendo did.

Nintendo recognized that they didn't want consumers "waiting" to buy the game at a cheaper price. If they know it won't be cheaper, they'll just buy it right away.

 

[mejin]

This was one of the best year for Xbox, but the games didn't achieved what they were supposed to be.
Everything was subpar when we talk about expectations and deliverings.

 

[FunkMiller]

I don't know why anyone in their right mind would think that games that are released day and date on a subscription service for a few bucks a month would sell well at retail.

 

[Bond007]

Yea, you cant tell me Gamepass sells games- you just cant.
I havent purchased an XBox game in YEARSSSS. Gamepass is my beta tester, demo machine, hit it and quit it service. I dont sign up for years at a time either- i renew when im interested in something.
Currently Starfield and Forza roped me in for two months- unlikely i tackle another month.

 

[Misterhbk]

This is nice and all but when are we getting Sept. numbers?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Putting games day and day on GamePass is like putting movies day and date on streaming services and expecting people to still go to the theater...

The Lion King came out in theaters in June 94. It wasn't on VHS until March of 95. It was the best-selling VHS of all time.

People are just now exploring these models for delivery, but they're forgetting old lessons at their own peril.

Same reason Sony isn't putting Spider-Man 2 on PC day 1 even though it would sell like wildfire. Unless you're prepared to shift your business model, you can't eschew your primary source of revenue.

 

[Fake]

Where the fuck is starfield?

In the trash bin.

 

[Three]

Back in the day, in Europe, it absolutely would have been #1.

I mean I have no idea where he's getting the idea that it's some kind of impossibility. Those big games like Minecraft, Roblox, Madden, FIFA, CoD etc have retention but they are very often topped at a big games launch week.

Case in point, another forza

Number one in UK

Number one in Southern Africa

Number one in Australia

I know they arent the biggest markets.
But they are the markets I actually care about.

Probably not going to be back in the US for quite a while

 

[TheGodfather07]

Yea, you cant tell me Gamepass sells games- you just cant.
I havent purchased an XBox game in YEARSSSS. Gamepass is my beta tester, demo machine, hit it and quit it service. I dont sign up for years at a time either- i renew when im interested in something.
Currently Starfield and Forza roped me in for two months- unlikely i tackle another month.

I use my xbox in the same way. I haven't actually bought a single new game for it yet. I only buy older BC games and subscribe to gamepass for a month or two when there's a game I'm interested it. Which hasn't been many. The game library is so thin. I don't understand how Microsoft are so bad at releasing games when they have so much money.

 

[balls of snow]

Cant wait for cod to not chart top 10 ever again starting next year.

 

[CeeJay]

TLDR is in bold

Firstly I agree that Forza has not done great, is full of bugs and has not released to a great reception from fans and critics alike so this isn't a post to try and say that Forza has done better than it has, it is more of a post arguing how much weight these boxed charts really carry in the grand scheme of things. <1% relevance...

Boxed charts aren't the most accurate metric.

MS have been pushing people to buy digital for a long time and if that was a success then you would naturally see boxed sales on Xbox drop through the floor. I am not trying to play defence force here just putting across a point of view that is more representative of my own circumstances. My own personal gaming purchase habits would never register on these boxed game charts and judging by the responses in the below thread...

What's your plan if/when both Microsoft and Sony ditch physical games entirely next gen?

Will you be quitting gaming entirely, jump to Nintendo or PC (if you haven't), or just give up and switch to full digital on Xbox or Playstation?

www.neogaf.com

It seems that my own habits are not too far away from the average these days. Microsoft were certainly the first console maker to start the push towards digital only and they have also shown the most commitment to making their customers digital back catalogue available on current and future consoles (as well as PC) so it stands to reason that their customers would skew the sales heavily away from boxed whereas both Sony and Nintendo have not given off signals that have been anywhere near as convincing. There is a reason that Playstation store gift cards are so popular (people don't trust Sony with their credit card details), Sony also charged for upgrades from PS4 to PS5 games and are more happy to remaster games than continue supporting them across generations. Nintendo are even worse, forcing people to buy the exact same game time after time on the latest console, dropping support completely for previous generations as soon as possible. More people buy boxed for PS and Nintendo than Xbox.

On the other side of the coin, both Sony and Nintendo have a much larger userbase so you would expect them to have a bigger impact on the sales of a game and when a game is exclusive to Xbox (taking PC out of this as no one buys boxed PC games anyway) it will naturally have a much smaller chance of getting into the charts than an exclusive on the other two systems. Third party games always do better than exclusives anyway and that does show in the charts.

So, Xbox has a much smaller userbase but also that userbase is (not factually as far as i can make out but more than likely) more inclined to buy digitally as well. We don't really know the majority of the factual information needed to fully analyse it as we don't know the split in sales between physical and digital for any of the 3 consoles and we don't get the sales figures from the digital stores either. We don't know the Gamepass numbers, we don't know how many Gamepass subscribers played Forza and we don't know how many of them bought the game or upgraded to the premium edition. But, we can look at data available for other titles.

We can look at Minecraft in the boxed charts. It is the Switch version that remains fairly consistently in the boxed charts even though it was released on Switch 6 years ago. The Switch is not the most popular platform for the game with mobile being easily the biggest platform for it. Minecraft has sold 5 million copies on Switch as of October 2022 (Wikipedia) and has sold more on Switch that both Xbox and Playstation yet, total sales of Minecraft are over 300 million (Minecraft Live 2023). So that means the console that has shifted the most copies of Minecraft still only accounts 1.7% of the total sales. Add to that the boxed sales will only be a fraction of this 1.7% as well (at most 50%). You really only get boxed games for consoles so all in all, boxed sales are nearly irrelevant as a metric for how popular Minecraft is.

If anything I would argue the point that Sony and Nintendo gamers are the most reluctant to move to digital purchases and boxed charts are the biggest proof of this.

 

[Riky]

This is the most irrelevant chart in gaming when at least half the userbase has a digital only console and the other half are like 90% digital.
There are probably millions of people playing it on Gamepass and a lot of those people will have played for the premium edition on Gamepass to start early, that's where Xbox makes their money.
Also comparing it to FH5 is silly as that was last gen also.

 

[Duchess]

One thing this all proves is the claim that "Game Pass sells more games" is categorically untrue.