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UK Labour Leadership Crisis: Corbyn retained as leader by strong margin

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Azzanadra

Member
The hyprocicy and change in narrative stunning. The blairites claim to be pragmatic and encourage the Corbynistas to get in line with the people like Smith... Yet they can't do the same for Corbyn? It's almost a self fulfilling propechy that labour won't win. I am guessing this would be the reaction here if Bernie eon as well. Speaking of purity tests though, why do I get the feeling the Smith supporters reject anything "too radical" that does not align with their neo liberal views?

Anyways, congratulations to Corbyn on the win, the people have spoken and if you care about the future of the country, I expect blairites to do for Corbyn what they expected his followers to do if Smith won.
 
Ha.
Over 60% of the vote (in a two horse race) is now not enough of an endorsement.
Amazing

For the leader of a party that is expected to win in 2020? After having to have a second contest because his co-workers got so sick of him they revolted? And when that nearly forty percent voted for someone that was such a lightweight that they had to nail him to the podium so he wouldn't fly off?

This contest hasn't solved a thing about Corbyn and the party. It has proven that Corbyn and his group have an iron grip on power. Yet with weeks and weeks of media attention, what do Labour have to show for it?
 

RedShift

Member
Ha.
Over 60% of the vote (in a two horse race) is now not enough of an endorsement.
Amazing

Labour electorate =/= Labour membership.

The latter love Corbyn. The former really really don't.

Nearly a third of Labour's 2015 voters prefer May to Corbyn for PM (source). And Labour need to win a lot more than their dismal 2015 vote share to win, especially if the boundary revisions go through.

It's quite clear now it will take a lost election to oust Corbyn, and I'm starting to worry even that won't be enough. I'm personally dreading how far the Tories will go now they know they'll win the next election for free.
 

StayDead

Member
Labour electorate =/= Labour membership.

The latter love Corbyn. The former really really don't.

Nearly a third of Labour's 2015 voters prefer May to Corbyn for PM (source). And Labour need to win a lot more than their dismal 2015 vote share to win, especially if the boundary revisions go through.

It's quite clear now it will take a lost election to oust Corbyn, and I'm starting to worry even that won't be enough. I'm personally dreading how far the Tories will go now they know they'll win the next election for free.

Is there any actually emperical evidence to prove that this is the case?
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I'm an American so I'm not super knowledgeable about U.K. party politics. What is a party member specifically and why are the numbers so low compared to the population as a whole?

I can't imagine a far left guy like Corbyn getting elected if everybody who votes Labour had a say.

A party member can vote in party elections to determine who their local candidate for that party will be, or for party positions like leader or chairman. I guess the equivalent is something like registering as a Democrat or a Republican in the United States. However, you have to pay a small amount to be a party member. The US doesn't do this because primaries are funded by the states and so the Democrats and Republicans don't have to meet the costs of organizing them. For internal matters like primary elections, UK parties have to meet their own costs, so there's a membership fee - e.g., I pay a pound every month to be a member of the Labour Party (about $1.30).

Parties used to be internally quite strongly democratic, especially the Labour Party, where much of the policy was decided by the votes of party members at the party conference. But politicians decided to 'professionalize' parties and reduce the input of members, in order to dump policies that appealed to the members but not the electorate. That gave less and less reason to join political parties, and there's still the fee attached, so membership slumped heavily:

Screen-Shot-2013-09-18-at-12.16.19.png

(note that this is a little misleading - the Labour Party allows anyone to vote who is a trade union member, broadly speaking, so it had a huge voting base that didn't feel the need to become a member; it was a mass participation party, and much more so than the Conservatives, which this graph doesn't really show. However, trade union membership has also plummeted, following the same trend)

In 1950, participation in the party process was about a fifth of the population; or roughly the same proportion that participate in the primary process in America. Now, it's a fraction of the population - nobody really cares enough to bother.

The Labour Party's electoral system for the leader used to be an electoral college, where MPs got a third of the vote, members a third of the vote, and affiliates (trade unionists) a third of the vote - sort of like the primary system in the US where sitting Democratic politicians as superdelegates control an outsize amount of the vote compared to people participating in democratic primaries. Ed Miliband, perceived as a leftwing candidate at the time, narrowly beat David Miliband, perceived as the rightwing candidate, thanks to the vote of affiliates. The right of the Labour Party took this quite poorly, and put huge pressure on him to reduce trade union input. He did this by switching to one man one vote.

This had a backfire effect, because while it took power away from the trade unions towards the members, it also took it away from the MPs towards the members. Corbyn managed to get an influx of new and enthused members that shocked the Labour Party by voting him in, as the most leftwing leader of the Labour Party in relative terms since, uh, Lansbury (1932-35). This would be sort of the American equivalent of, um, the Democrats abolishing superdelegates and caucuses because a Blue Dog faction felt that superdelegates were favouring leftist candidates like Obama (e.g. Ed Miliband was basically a centrist), and instead having someone like Sanders win.

It's a very rough analogy, because American parties have very different blocs to British ones and I don't think the Democrats are at all comparable to the Labour Party, but as 'translations' go, it's about as good as you'll get.
 
I'm an American so I'm not super knowledgeable about U.K. party politics. What is a party member specifically and why are the numbers so low compared to the population as a whole?

I can't imagine a far left guy like Corbyn getting elected if everybody who votes Labour had a say.
It's similar to the difference between Primaries and the General Election. Except with much lower turnout.

It would be sort of like if there were only 3 million registered Democrats choosing a candidate for President.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It's similar to the difference between Primaries and the General Election. Except with much lower turnout.

It would be sort of like if there were only 3 million registered Democrats choosing a candidate for President.

more literally, it's what the Democratic primaries would look like if you had to pay $32.42 to participate. Who would bother? People care about the difference between Clinton and Sanders, but they probably don't care about it as much as they care about having $32.42. US parties can only run mass primaries because they're socialist at heart - the government props them up.

Even the average Bernie fan only cared for $27 worth. :p
 
I actually don't think a lot of people would bother to vote between Jeremy Jam and whoever the hell the other guy was even if it was free.

Also on the flipside, the US primary campaigns at least are also funded by more people probably to the tune of far more than 30$. So it's not like muricans are averse to parting with their private monies.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I actually don't think a lot of people would bother to vote between Jeremy Jam and whoever the hell the other guy was even if it was free.

I don't think this is true at all, actually. I mean, UK politics would look very different to begin with if it had primaries, so it is very difficult to say, but Corbyn is actually intensely popular with about a sixth of the electorate, for example, which is much more than just those who voted for him. Maybe not this 'primary', because I don't feel like anyone is enthused by Smith even if they do prefer him, but something like Benn vs. Healey? Definitely.

Also on the flipside, the US primary campaigns at least are also funded by more people probably to the tune of far more than 30$. So it's not like muricans are averse to parting with their private monies.

The US could not even begin to sustain the primary system without state subvention. They are exorbitantly expensive. It's yet another part of the two-party duopoly - they get the state to give them special electoral privileges and huge amounts of money, and pretend that this is accessible to other parties while really offering them a pittance, preventing anything ever emerging from the Democrat-Republican stranglehold.

Labour and the Conservatives try doing this too (see: boundary changes); they're just not as good at it.
 

Cromat

Member
Labour needs to sway Conservative party voters in order to win. It seems obvious to me that you can't do that while simultaneously using 'Tory' as an insult.

A political party in a representative democracy needs to sway people. In Labour's case they need to sway Tory voters, and you can't sway them if you don't try to appeal to their sensibilities and priorities. If you're not in politics in order to win power and generate outcomes, then I'm not sure what you're doing qualifies as politics at all. More like moral signaling or a way to feel good about yourself.

The thought that you can disengage from the majority of the country, stick to your message and then have people coming to their senses eventually at some point in the future strikes me as incredibly naive and lazy. This line of thinking also has the nasty streak of wishing some sort of catastrophe will force people to realise your side is right, instead of actually synthesising a political proposition that appeals to the concerns of actual people right now.
 

Nicktendo86

Member
Exactly. As long as the word Tory is still considered an insult and seen as the enemy rather than people like anyone else with concerns and worries to be addressed and won over labour will be in the wilderness.

Kmag: that's still £3 I rather go to a pack of wet wipes for my daughter, or anything else to be honest, than the coffers of a political party.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It's £3, I've had more expensive shits in London.

Eh... it's £3.92 per month, but you normally have to have been a member for something like nine months to be able to vote in the contest, which makes it £35.28. Or you could sign up as a registered supporter for £25. But it's not really as simple as £3.
 

Heartfyre

Member
It seems unbecoming, in the current circumstances, to have a Eurosceptic as the opposition leader. I guess Brexit Means Brexit, and We're Going To Make A Success Of It.
 
I'm not a big fan of Corbyn but if this doesn't give him a mandate to lead the way he wants without any dissent in the ranks of whatever shadow cabinet he picks then Labour are fucked, terminally.

Its also going to be interesting to see how the media react. The way they've portrayed him you'd think it was fucking Trump in charge or something.
 
Who is this candidate exactly? You would have to be naive to be believe that somebody of Smiths 'credibility' could keep the party together. Labour, as a party, are an ideological mess.

I don't see why not. Smith's policies weren't that far apart from Corbyn's, and the party didn't split under Miliband. I don't see why they would under Smith. I agree, though, that they're an ideological mess. But since I'm also pretty sure that the "left" of the party will never win an election, the responsibility is theirs to fall in line (if they don't want to leave). I can't imagine being on the right of the Labour party right now.

Edit: I still don't know what uniting behind Corbyn looks like when so many of the PLP disagree with him. Any time any journalist or constituent says "Do you agree with your boss that we should unilaterally disarm", what is that MP meant to say?
 

satriales

Member
That 62% doesn't even include all of the Labour members who didn't/couldn't vote because they had to pay £25 for the privilege. I am one of them, and wanted to vote for Corbyn but it came at a week when I couldn't afford to spend £25.
 

kmag

Member
I'm not a big fan of Corbyn but if this doesn't give him a mandate to lead the way he wants without any dissent in the ranks of whatever shadow cabinet he picks then Labour are fucked, terminally.

Its also going to be interesting to see how the media react. The way they've portrayed him you'd think it was fucking Trump in charge or something.

If the polling stays the same (and I don't see Labour getting above 31%) then the MP's are going to rightly grumble. And given the polling frankly I think there's little in it for any Labour MP who isn't a fan exposing themselves to collective responsibility under Corbyn. I've always been of the opinion the PLP should have let Corbyn hang himself electorally or at least give him two and a bit 'good' years by keeping schtum.

Lets not beat about the bush both the parties performance and the leaders personal ratings are historically terrible. I mean it's not poor polling, it's absolutely disastrous polling. They're heading for probably the lowest representation possible under this system.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Edit: I still don't know what uniting behind Corbyn looks like when so many of the PLP disagree with him. Any time any journalist or constituent says "Do you agree with your boss that we should unilaterally disarm", what is that MP meant to say?

That's what a party is, though. You'd be mad to think all 232 Labour MPs agreed on exactly all the same policies. I doubt you could find a group of 232 people who all agreed on every topic anywhere, never mind politics. The idea of political parties is that sometimes people agree to vote for things they disagree with if in return others will do likewise, in the hope that they can achieve more than they would otherwise. Corbyn might have been the most rebellious Labour MP currently in the Commons, but even he voted with his party over 85% of the time.

If Labour centrists feel like they can't find any policies that both sides agree on and are worth dropping some other concerns for, one rather does question why they're all in the same party.
 
That's what a party is, though. You'd be mad to think all 232 Labour MPs agreed on exactly all the same policies. I doubt you could find a group of 232 people who all agreed on every topic anywhere, never mind politics. The idea of political parties is that sometimes people agree to vote for things they disagree with if in return others will do likewise, in the hope that they can achieve more than they would otherwise. Corbyn might have been the most rebellious Labour MP currently in the Commons, but even he voted with his party over 85% of the time.

If Labour centrists feel like they can't find any policies that both sides agree on and are worth dropping some other concerns for, one rather does question why they're all in the same party.

Yeah yeah yeah sure but there are so many more of the anti Corbyn people than the Corbyn people. I mean, a vote of not confidence isn't something you do on behalf of the membership or even your constituents; it's the MPs themselves saying that they don't have confidence in his ability to lead. All the leadership elections in the world don't change that - they don't believe he can lead. It's hard to come back from there and "unite".

And in the words of Michael Bolton from Office Space when asked why he doesn't change his name if he's so sick of being compared to the singer, "Why should I have to change my name? He's the one who sucks."
 

Uzzy

Member
Yeah yeah yeah sure but there are so many more of the anti Corbyn people than the Corbyn people. I mean, a vote of not confidence isn't something you do on behalf of the membership or even your constituents; it's the MPs themselves saying that they don't have confidence in his ability to lead. All the leadership elections in the world don't change that - they don't believe he can lead. It's hard to come back from there and "unite".

And in the words of Michael Bolton from Office Space when asked why he doesn't change his name if he's so sick of being compared to the singer, "Why should I have to change my name? He's the one who sucks."

Corbyn has won two leadership elections. They can get in line with what the people want, find someone to replace him and his policies, or continue to leak and brief against Corbyn and take pot shots from across the Atlantic.
 
One party politics for the next decade then.

It's all well and good Cobyn getting the party nod, but he's unelectable on the national level and that, along with boundary changes means the UK might as well get used to a decade plus more of Tory rule.
 

f0rk

Member
Corbyn has won two leadership elections. They can get in line with what the people want, find someone to replace him and his policies, or continue to leak and brief against Corbyn and take pot shots from across the Atlantic.

Policies aren't the main problem at this point, it's competence. Unfortunately for Corbyn leading the main opposition party is not the skillset as leading big rallies from the top of a bus.
 

Marlenus

Member
I wonder if labour would be doing as badly in the polls if instead of trying to oust Corbyn the PLP had got behind Corbyn after the brexit vote. There is every possibility labour would be polling better than currently but that would mean the rhetoric of Corbyn being unelectable would lose its weight and I don't think the PLP wanted that.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Yeah yeah yeah sure but there are so many more of the anti Corbyn people than the Corbyn people. I mean, a vote of not confidence isn't something you do on behalf of the membership or even your constituents; it's the MPs themselves saying that they don't have confidence in his ability to lead. All the leadership elections in the world don't change that - they don't believe he can lead. It's hard to come back from there and "unite".

And in the words of Michael Bolton from Office Space when asked why he doesn't change his name if he's so sick of being compared to the singer, "Why should I have to change my name? He's the one who sucks."

Right, but the natural conclusion of that from the point of the membership is deselection. Why should you be allowed to stand under the Labour Party banner when you disagree with the Labour Party on such a large number of issues? Again, Corbyn still voted with his party 85% of the time. He never formed a party within a party during his time on the backbench. The current attitude of the PLP doesn't really give the membership much choice - it's cooperate or stand down.
 
Right, but the natural conclusion of that from the point of the membership is deselection. Why should you be allowed to stand under the Labour Party banner when you disagree with the Labour Party on such a large number of issues? Again, Corbyn still voted with his party 85% of the time. He never formed a party within a party during his time on the backbench. The current attitude of the PLP doesn't really give the membership much choice - it's cooperate or stand down.

Sure, and they - the members - are acting rationally (in the context of supporting Corbyn, that is), but it's *also* the case that those members of the PLP who think he's a shit head don't have much of a choice but to speak their mind without *them* coming across as hypocritical, dare I say it Burnham-esque goons.

I think we basically agree, my only point is that calling for unity is bunk.
 

Jezbollah

Member
I wonder if labour would be doing as badly in the polls if instead of trying to oust Corbyn the PLP had got behind Corbyn after the brexit vote. There is every possibility labour would be polling better than currently but that would mean the rhetoric of Corbyn being unelectable would lose its weight and I don't think the PLP wanted that.

Don't you think the PLP would have done this if Corbyn, his team and Momentum had not repelled away via their various actions the PLP in the first place?
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I think we basically agree, my only point is that calling for unity is bunk.

I disagree. Firstly, I still think there's more that unites than divides Labour. Secondly, I don't think the rift between the Labour right and the membership is unhealable. It might only be a sham of unity, but sticking your head under and doing your best is, I think, genuinely the best move. Basically, be Lisa Nandy (who I would give very good odds on being the next Labour Prime Minister).
 

remist

Member
What I don't understand is how you can in one breath argue for pragmatic politics and compromise and in the next breath start a coup with no good plan, no leadership and no chance of success. If they really cared about the labor party and Corbyn is actually unelectable, the PLP should have stayed quiet and united after brexit and let Corbyn hang himself. Instead we have this clusterfuck and Corbyn has a ready made excuse. This isn't pragmatism.
 

hodgy100

Member
The PLP and Labour MP's have created a self fulfilling prophecy with their dummy spitting over the last year. if they actually wanted the members to dislike Corbyn they should of let him fail on his own terms rather than coming across as petulant children that are mad that things didn't go the way they wanted them to go. The mess the Labour party is now is in of their own creation and they have created a divisive environment within their own base and party and shown themselves up to not really give a hoot for democracy by attempting the disband the memberships original vote, then making it difficult for members to vote in the recent leadership election by adding hoops to jump through, monetary hoops at that which is disgusting for a party that claims to be for the working class and those in poverty.

I joined as a labour member after the brexit vote but before the coup because i wanted to take the fight directly to the Tories and i have been made to feel unwelcome in the party despite holding the same political viewpoints. the PLP is an instance of the left eating itself, and I am truly disappointed and frustrated with them.
 

Marlenus

Member
Don't you think the PLP would have done this if Corbyn, his team and Momentum had not repelled away via their various actions the PLP in the first place?

I think the PLP would have done it regardless because they didn't want Corbyn to begin with.
 

Maledict

Member
I think the PLP would have done it regardless because they didn't want Corbyn to begin with.

The majority of the PLP has been trying to work with Corbyn. The number of active rebels was always very, very low - less than 20. Hell, Blair suffered from more (from Corbyn!.

The problem is Corbyn is totally incapable of leading the party. Nothing to do with policy, he's literally incompetent. He;s the guy who has worked int he same back office job, doing the same thing for 40 years - who suddenly is asked to manage 200+ MPs and a party of several hundred thousand people in one of the Wests biggest political parties. It's a challenge of management that very few people are capable of (Brown wasn't!), and Corbyn is totally and utterly incapable of doing it.

That's why they rebelled. That's why MPs who supported him, MPs from the left, rebelled.Because he just can't do the job, and even if every member of the PLP fell into line and said nothing against him, he would *still* be an utterly incompetant manager who couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. FFS he torpedoed the launch of labours own transport policy! He gave the arts minister job to two separate people!
 

Conan-san

Member
The PLP are perfectly welcome to come out of the closet and bugger off to the Tories if that's their prerogative.

I'm sure they'll find their NeoLib Paradise there.
 
I disagree. Firstly, I still think there's more that unites than divides Labour. Secondly, I don't think the rift between the Labour right and the membership is unhealable. It might only be a sham of unity, but sticking your head under and doing your best is, I think, genuinely the best move. Basically, be Lisa Nandy (who I would give very good odds on being the next Labour Prime Minister).

But I think a significant part of their problem is that the right thing he's shit and the left don't care that he's shit because he's the best shot they'll have at taking over the party. Chuka and Jez might well agree on the government's need to build swathes of social housing or the desirability of setting up an environmental investment fund, but when one of the things that *does* divide you is that you think the leader's bad at leading, I dunno where you go from there. You can't really "sham" that. 75% voted that they had no confidence in him, and I think if he'd had a barnstorming success of a first year in charge, that wouldn't have happened. I don't think it would even if Labour's poll numbers stayed where they were (which is still setting the bar pretty low).
 

remist

Member
But I think a significant part of their problem is that the right thing he's shit and the left don't care that he's shit because he's the best shot they'll have at taking over the party. Chuka and Jez might well agree on the government's need to build swathes of social housing or the desirability of setting up an environmental investment fund, but when one of the things that *does* divide you is that you think the leader's bad at leading, I dunno where you go from there. You can't really "sham" that. 75% voted that they had no confidence in him, and I think if he'd had a barnstorming success of a first year in charge, that wouldn't have happened. I don't think it would even if Labour's poll numbers stayed where they were (which is still setting the bar pretty low).
If the most important thing is affecting change and keeping labor viable electorally, then the vote of no confidence should have never happened until they had a plan and good reason to believe they could get the support of the membership. I buy the argument that Corbyn isn't up for the job, but you're not making a good argument for the reckless way it is being handled. If incompetence is the problem then PLP leadership is just more of it.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
But I think a significant part of their problem is that the right thing he's shit and the left don't care that he's shit because he's the best shot they'll have at taking over the party. Chuka and Jez might well agree on the government's need to build swathes of social housing or the desirability of setting up an environmental investment fund, but when one of the things that *does* divide you is that you think the leader's bad at leading, I dunno where you go from there. You can't really "sham" that. 75% voted that they had no confidence in him, and I think if he'd had a barnstorming success of a first year in charge, that wouldn't have happened. I don't think it would even if Labour's poll numbers stayed where they were (which is still setting the bar pretty low).

That's the easiest one to fib about, though! Just say he's surpassed your expectations and shown real character in holding Theresa May to account at <most recent PMQs>, and has won round your confidence.
 

Uzzy

Member
The majority of the PLP has been trying to work with Corbyn. The number of active rebels was always very, very low - less than 20. Hell, Blair suffered from more (from Corbyn!.

The problem is Corbyn is totally incapable of leading the party. Nothing to do with policy, he's literally incompetent. He;s the guy who has worked int he same back office job, doing the same thing for 40 years - who suddenly is asked to manage 200+ MPs and a party of several hundred thousand people in one of the Wests biggest political parties. It's a challenge of management that very few people are capable of (Brown wasn't!), and Corbyn is totally and utterly incapable of doing it.

That's why they rebelled. That's why MPs who supported him, MPs from the left, rebelled.Because he just can't do the job, and even if every member of the PLP fell into line and said nothing against him, he would *still* be an utterly incompetant manager who couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery. FFS he torpedoed the launch of labours own transport policy! He gave the arts minister job to two separate people!

Then they can piss off to the Co-operative, Lib Dem or Tory parties then, the mutinous fucks.
 
Then they can piss off to the Co-operative, Lib Dem or Tory parties then, the mutinous fucks.

Is the fault of the crew if there's a mutiny, or the captain of the ship?

I'd say captain personally, like your key job is to keep the ship chugging along, which you do by keeping everyone happy or at least placating dissent. Odds weren't in his favour and the situation wasn't fair, but still, captain failed at his job.
 

remist

Member
Is the fault of the crew if there's a mutiny, or the captain of the ship?

I'd say captain personally, like your key job is to keep the ship chugging along, which you do by keeping everyone happy or at least placating dissent. Odds weren't in his favour and the situation wasn't fair, but still, captain failed at his job.
When the mutineers consist of ranking officers who know they don't have the support of regular crew members to pull off a successful mutiny, yet they go ahead with it anyway. I think it's pretty clear who has the primary blame for the ensuing pointless chaos.
 

Nicktendo86

Member
WTF would there talk about with Brexit

"OK, what does Brexit mean"
"Fuck knows"
"Ôk, next topic"
It's not like exiting the EU is the single biggest item on the country's agenda or anything is it.

Labour are not a government in waiting. They are not even really an opposition now. They are not a joke. They are more of a tragedy.
 
When the mutineers consist of ranking officers who know they don't have the support of regular crew members to pull off a successful mutiny, yet they go ahead with it anyway. I think it's pretty clear who has the primary blame for the ensuing pointless chaos.
In their defence, I don't think it ever occurred to them that Corbyn would actually stay on. That's unprecedented. You just don't do that when you've been knifed by your own parliamentary party. They assumed that it would force him to resign and then there'd be a leadership election with entirely fresh candidates and the usual jockeying for position that this entails.
 
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