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[Royal_Phalanx]

From the Brexit thread.

https://www.ft.com/content/47c59030-ac11-11e6-9cb3-bb8207902122

Canada’s finance minister has dashed hopes of rekindling a close trading pact among the countries of the Commonwealth including Britain once the process of Brexit has been completed.

Bill Morneau told the Financial Times that while Canada would want to strike a trade deal with Britain after it leaves the EU because “affinity” between the two countries is high, this was far from the top of his priorities. “We’re not talking as much about Brexit as you are in the UK,” he said.

While he nodded to the traditional closeness between the two countries, saying that Canadians hold “pretty dear” the relationship, he was clear that a UK trade deal is not the top of his agenda.

“From our perspective, clearly the Nafta [North American Free Trade Agreement] relationship [with the US] is of huge importance. That’s our biggest relationship by a very big margin, so that’s important to us. And then the Ceta relationship [with the EU] opens up a very significant market. Our opening of exploratory talks with China … we do see as important and as the UK figures its next steps, that will be important too.”

We'll be signing the best, the best trade deals outside the EU.

 

[Xando]

“From our perspective, clearly the Nafta [North American Free Trade Agreement] relationship [with the US] is of huge importance. That’s our biggest relationship by a very big margin, so that’s important to us. And then the Ceta relationship [with the EU] opens up a very significant market. Our opening of exploratory talks with China … we do see as important and as the UK figures its next steps, that will be important too.”

This will be the biggest problem for the UK.

Without the EU market other countries will prioritise China, India, US and the EU because they are markets that don't have the burden of maybe falling off a cliff (depending how brexit goes) in 2 years.


Basically no one will want to negotiate anything before they know with what they are negotiating

 

[Visualante2]

Thread title should be trade deal between UK and Canada wanted, but not top priority.

 

[frankie_baby]

Well hopefully things like this will push Darth May into having to do a soft brexit

 

[hydrophilic attack]

 

[kswiston]

This will be the biggest problem for the UK.

Without the EU market other countries will prioritise China, India, US and the EU because they are markets that don't have the burden of maybe falling off a cliff (depending how brexit goes) in 2 years.


Basically no one will want to negotiate anything before they know with what they are negotiating

UK is also a medium sized country with a low birth rate, that is currently riding an anti-immigration wave. Where is the future economic growth going to come from as the baby boomers continue to age out of the workforce?

 

[killer rin]

Sorry UK, but we're going to wait until you are desperate and then take advantage of you... It's the British Way

 

[Azih]

A bit of translation from a Canadian.

"Look even at the best of times you guys wouldn't even be in the top 5 but TRUMP AAAHHHHHHHHHHAAHHHHHH!"

 

[Laevateinn]

The sun never sets on people the UK no longer trades with.

 

[Impeccable]

We saw the Toblerones and bailed, sorry.

 

[bonesmccoy]

Is this supposed to be an anti-Brexit story? I can't tell.

 

[PJV3]

Sorry UK, but we're going to wait until you are desperate and then take advantage of you... It's the British Way

I was just thinking how easy to bend over the country will be in a few years, we have flogged everything off and are about to kneecap the City.

 

[kmag]

Thread title should be trade deal between UK and Canada wanted, but not top priority.

No one (outside perhaps Bangladesh who have a very narrow focus of interests when it comes to trade deals: that's not a dig at Bangladesh btw they're probably the most active Trade commission in the world, it's just that they concentrate on the garment industry) is going to do a trade deal with the UK until it knows the trading relationship the UK will have with the EU.

This is for a number of reasons.

1) they don't want to open a backdoor for the rest of the single market in the event the EU gives the UK a very generous settlement
2) They don't want to ruin any chance they'd have of a deal with the EU due to worries the EU might have about the UK backdooring access to the EU via the seperate deals with the mutual party.
3) the UK is desperate for any deal, the less interest a country shows the weaker the UK's position will be when they come begging.

 

[Charles Brandon]

UK is also a medium sized country with a low birth rate, that is currently riding an anti-immigration wave. Where is the future economic growth going to come from as the baby boomers continue to age out of the workforce?

Birth-rate amongst non-indigenous Britons is pretty high, also non-EU migration is also quite high and not yet affected by Brexit. Pre-brexit calculations put the UK on course to overtake Germany in terms of population and GDP in the not too distant future. Obviously that is now in doubt but the population will still rise, IMO.

 

[thehypocrite]

GG UK. Congratulations, you've played yourself.

 

[frankie_baby]

UK is also a medium sized country with a low birth rate, that is currently riding an anti-immigration wave. Where is the future economic growth going to come from as the baby boomers continue to age out of the workforce?

Our birthrate is low but not that low compared to many other major nations and any post brexit anti immigration measures are only going to give immigration levels a (probably temporary) haircut

 

[DragonSworne]

UK is too small and insignificant.

 

[suedester]

Is this supposed to be an anti-Brexit story? I can't tell.

Well Royal_Phalanx started the thread so you can take that for granted.

 

[Charles Brandon]

GG UK. Congratulations, you've played yourself.

Yes, yes - we know. Still, coulda been worse. I hear Donald Trump is president now!

 

[The Omega Man]

Keeping NAFTA going must be Canada's priority now that Trumps wants to sabotage it, the Brits can wait.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

UK is also a medium sized country with a low birth rate, that is currently riding an anti-immigration wave. Where is the future economic growth going to come from as the baby boomers continue to age out of the workforce?

Psh, our birth rate is fine. This ain't Japan.

 

[Darkangel]

Canada to come crawling back to the empire once NAFTA is ripped up.

 

[kswiston]

Psh, our birth rate is fine. This ain't Japan.

Birth rate is under the replacement rate, so immigration is the only reason UK's population is increasing at the rate it has been increasing.

 

[shira]

Canada to come crawling back to the empire once NAFTA is ripped up.

I'm not even aware of anything we trade.

Fur?

 

[Crazymoogle]

What the hell do we care about negotiating now when Brexit hasn't even happened yet? It's just a bunch of politician goons saying what they want to do but content to sit around and play musical chairs so they don't sacrifice their career on it. Pretty much the only way we'd send someone to talk was if there was someone (a) bored and (b) in need of exile.

Trump at least is a problem happening right now.

 

[kswiston]

I'm not even aware of anything we trade.

Fur?

Wood, Agricultural products, various minerals, energy.

 

[Mr-Joker]

As a British, I am okay with this and encourage it.

UK is too small and insignificant.

Yep pretty much, UK likes to pretends it's big and important but really isn't.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Birth rate is under the replacement rate, so immigration is the only reason UK's population is increasing at the rate it has been increasing.

Psh, just barely.

 

[frankie_baby]

Birth rate is under the replacement rate, so immigration is the only reason UK's population is increasing at the rate it has been increasing.

Not much under it and noticeably higher than japan and germany, wouldn't be surprised to see uk population and economy bigger than japan by the end of the century

 

[Wyndstryker]

Keeping NAFTA going must be Canada's priority now that Trumps wants to sabotage it, the Brits can wait.

Canada to come crawling back to the empire once NAFTA is ripped up.

Thing is, even if NAFTA is ripped apart Canada is fine because it has a separate free trade deal to fall back on.

Can-US Free Trade Agreement

NAFTA supersedes the original free trade agreement but it was never abolished.

NAFTA being ripped apart just screws Mexico.

 

[kswiston]

Psh, just barely.

Just barely is enough to lead to stagnation, especially as we enter the period where life expectancy stopped increasing rapidly (can't get much better infant survival than close to 100%). The only reason birth rates went up from 2001 is because net immigration increased fairly dramatically, and immigrants tend to have more children in their first generation. Cut immigration, and the birth rate will also start to drop again.

 

[Disagree Guy]

At least when things inevitably go to shit in the UK we now have an excuse

 

[Charles Brandon]

As a British, I am okay with this and encourage it.



Yep pretty much, UK likes to pretends it's big and important but really isn't.

We are still the 5th biggest economy in the world.

 

[marc^o^]

Sorry UK, but we're going to wait until you are desperate and then take advantage of you... It's the British Way

It's cynical but true nonetheless.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Just barely is enough to lead to stagnation, especially as we enter the period where life expectancy stopped increasing rapidly (can't get much better infant survival than close to 100%). The only reason birth rates went up from 2001 is because net immigration increased fairly dramatically, and immigrants tend to have more children in their first generation. Cut immigration, and the birth rate will also start to drop again.

And for the third time psh. A birth rate close to replacement is fine. It's a good situation to be in: we can keep the population moreorless constant, or open the tap and let more people in if needs be. There's no shortage of people that want to come here. I don't know what you're so worried about.

 

[Disagree Guy]

We are still the 5th biggest economy in the world.

Because people are always going to be clambering to do deals with the 5th best option

 

[kmag]

We are still the 5th biggest economy in the world.

6th and closer to 7th than to 5th, 5th was in the heady heights of $1.36 to the pound.

 

[d9b]

We are still the 5th biggest economy in the world.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Because people are always going to be clambering to do deals with the 5th best option

Well, yeah if you already have deals with 1-4, why not?

And this news story says even though we're not the "top" priority, it's still seen as important and they value the affinity between our countries. I mean, that all sounds pretty good and about right to me.

 

[marc^o^]

We are still the 5th biggest economy in the world.

Save this post and read it again in two years. Pre Brexit UK was the 5th biggest economy in the world.

Fear and ignorance changed all this.

 

[Azih]

Well, yeah if you already have deals with 1-4, why not?

We don't and our number 1 is under threat due to events south of the border.

 

[kmag]

And for the third time psh. A birth rate close to replacement is fine. It's a good situation to be in: we can keep the population moreorless constant, or open the tap and let more people in if needs be. There's no shortage of people that want to come here. I don't know what you're so worried about.

No it's not, because population replacement is not workforce replacement there's a lag. People live longer, require expensive services (pensions, social care, health care) for longer, those increasing costs need to be paid by an expanding workforce, not a stagnant one. The only other hope is drastically increasing productivity per worker, but the UK has been particularly consistently terrible at that. Of course you can just keep working the old codgers until they drop.

The UK demographic regime is relatively benign; with a total fertility rate which has been around 1.7 - 1.8 since the 1970s. Population decline is not projected until after 2035 (partly because of existing high immigration); population projections by the official Government Actuary’s Department forecast a long term potential support ratio of around 2.5 (today 4.1) with a median age of 42. To preserve today’s potential support ratio would require formal retirement age (now 65/60) to increase to 72.

*Support Ratio is the ratio of the population of nominal old age dependants (aged 65 and over) to persons in the nominally economically ‘active’ population (aged 15-64). Today's support ratios are about 4 or 5: 1 in most richer countries (i.e 4 or 5 economically active people to 1 dependent), the lower the ratio of economically active people to dependents the harder to fund it'll be.

 

[Lkr]

We don't need the EU, we already have the commonwealth!

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

Well, yeah if you already have deals with 1-4, why not?

And this news story says even though we're not the "top" priority, it's still seen as important and they value the affinity between our countries. I mean, that all sounds pretty good and about right to me.

Given that they're focusing on larger markets first, including the EU, that should be a reason not to leave such a large trade bloc.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

We don't and our number 1 is under threat due to events south of the border.

So....go sort that out and then come back to us. That's completely fair enough, but this story is being spun as "oh no we're not absolutely at the top of the list" when it makes absolute sense that we're not.

 

[Charles Brandon]

So....go sort that out and then come back to us. That's completely fair enough, but this story is being spun as "oh no we're not absolutely at the top of the list" when it makes absolute sense that we're not.

Aye. I'm not suggesting that the UK would be top of anyone's list. But it isn't insignificant either.

 

[tuxfool]

Aye. I'm not suggesting that the UK would be top of anyone's list. But it isn't insignificant either.

But it is the message of the UK gov't that all sorts of deals are on the table. It is the brexiter narrative that makes "everyone will want deals with us". They might, but priorities are low. Given the time it takes to hammer out a deal then at a low priority for a deal it is a long wait.

 

[Azih]

So....go sort that out and then come back to us. That's completely fair enough, but this story is being spun as "oh no we're not absolutely at the top of the list" when it makes absolute sense that we're not.

But we're not going to be getting back to you for the foreseeable future. You guys will if you suddenly need to do trade deals with every country under the sun.

 

[suedester]

But we're not going to be getting back to you.

Ooh, looks like we've got a high ranking member of the Canadian government posting on GAF. Do tell us more.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

But we're not going to be getting back to you for the foreseeable future. You guys will if you suddenly need to do trade deals with every country under the sun.

I don't know where you're getting that from. Admittedly I can't read the whole article because it's behind a paywall, but the quoted section explicitly says "Canada would want to strike a trade deal with Britain after it leaves the EU".