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Ukrainian Conflict - Donetsk Boogaloo

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I mean antagonising your nuclearly powered global superpower neighbour (on whose economy and gas you completely rely), breaking established deals (Yanukovich power transfer), attempting to surpress the rights of Russian population and attempting to steer Ukraine towards NATO and EU when none of those are realistic propositions. Ukraine leadership is either insane or bribed. There really isn't an alternative for Ukraine except to integrate their economy with Russia and fully align its foreign policy with Russia's views. Considering their current geopolitical position, there is a high chance of bankruptcy or even worse full state collapse if they don't recalibrate their strategy as soon as possible. Ukraine is so vulnerable right now (terrible economy, strong pro-Russian stance in the Eastern parts) that a breakup could easily be engineered.

So what's your alternative if you care so much?

Look, it is clear you couldn't care less about Ukraine, so stop pretending. Anyone who claims that the rights of Russians in Ukraine are suppressed is crazy. There are way more Russian newspapers in Ukraine than Ukrainian newspapers. Movies are generally translated to Russian. At least 50% of TV (including national) is in Russian. It is very hard to find a good book translated to Ukrainian... Pretty much all music is Russian. What are you talking about? Are you from Russia?
 
I wonder, how much does Ukraine get paid to transit all that natural gas across the country?

Seems to me that if Russia wants a trade war, Ukraine can hold their own.

They tried it back in 2008. Ukraine did managed to get through part of the winter, but EU did not back up Ukraine back then. Ukraine ended up paying for gas more than most EU countries (even if you include delivery).
 
Keep ignoring reality. The EU failed to formulate any sort of a consistent view on Ukraine. Look what happened.

What happened is that Ukraine is now hell-bent on getting closer to the west, and the EU in particular. Looks to me like a win for the EU, however "insane" you might think it is. And they didn't even need to invade any country, imagine that.
 
Keep ignoring reality. The EU failed to formulate any sort of a consistent view on Ukraine. Look what happened.

What are you trying to say? See my post above. If you care so much, do you have anything to suggest? It sounds like you are just badmouthing EU and Ukraine with no real purpose.
 
What are you trying to say? See my post above. If you care so much, do you have anything to suggest? It sounds like you are just badmouthing EU and Ukraine with no real purpose.

I think he's just a russian nationalist, maybe serbian. Just venting some of that old humiliation. Pretty much all his posts are russian chest-beating.
 
Abject subjection in the face of aggressive foreign imperialism is not "sane leadership".

This is kind of ironic. Ukraine is doing that. The only question is to which foreign power will its politico-economic elite subject the country. It is the West's attempt to "capture" the Ukraine that has led to the ousting of Ukraine's democratic government and the installment of a pro-West regime. There is no good reason to believe that Ukraine's population wants to be subjugated to the West in this way any more than there is good reason to believe it wants to be subjugated to Russia. What Ukrainians likely want is what people the world over want: freedom from foreign rule and independence. Unfortunately, that's not an option on the table in the Ukraine. In any event, it's something that has to come from within Ukraine, not orchestrated from without.
 
This is kind of ironic. Ukraine is doing that. The only question is to which foreign power will its politico-economic elite subject the country. It is the West's attempt to "capture" the Ukraine that has led to the ousting of Ukraine's democratic government and the installment of a pro-West regime. There is no good reason to believe that Ukraine's population wants to be subjugated to the West in this way any more than there is good reason to believe it wants to be subjugated to Russia. What Ukrainians likely want is what people the world over want: freedom from foreign rule and independence. Unfortunately, that's not an option on the table in the Ukraine. In any event, it's something that has to come from within Ukraine, not orchestrated from without.

Well that's a poll from october 2013 (already showing a slight advantage for the EU plan), before their russian-supported leader murdered them in the streets and their country was invaded. Whatever else your argument may be, those numbers have certainly changed since then, if only because Russia just removed a few hundred thousands ethnic russians from the equation. I will also notice that this poll was conducted only in large-ish cities, which would seem to favour the russian position to me.
 
This is kind of ironic. Ukraine is doing that. The only question is to which foreign power will its politico-economic elite subject the country. It is the West's attempt to "capture" the Ukraine that has led to the ousting of Ukraine's democratic government and the installment of a pro-West regime. There is no good reason to believe that Ukraine's population wants to be subjugated to the West in this way any more than there is good reason to believe it wants to be subjugated to Russia. What Ukrainians likely want is what people the world over want: freedom from foreign rule and independence. Unfortunately, that's not an option on the table in the Ukraine. In any event, it's something that has to come from within Ukraine, not orchestrated from without.

As a Ukrainian I don't have to guess what Ukrainians want. Recent polls show significant increase in pro-EU sentiments. What's ironic is that Russia is the one to thank for that.

And I will actually agree with you about "freedom from foreign rule and independence". It really isn't an option. Mostly because of corrupt government of the past 23 years that destroyed what was remaining of the economy. A good news is that EU is better with fighting corruption.
 
There is only one superpower in the region and it's the EU. Abject subjection in the face of aggressive foreign imperialism is not "sane leadership".

The EU is a superpower? I want some of what you're smoking. If you honestly believe that I have a bridge to sell ya.
 
After a bit of googling around, it seems that you chose the exact time and pollster most favourable to your argument Empty Vessel. Any time before or after the period you chose, you would have gotten some pretty different results : see this link for example.

Interesting that the most favourable poll you were able to find was one by Deutsche Welle, should maybe tell you something about the difference between "subjugation" by the UE and by Russia.

The EU is a superpower? I want some of what you're smoking. If you honestly believe that I have a bridge to sell ya.

Uh what? By what metric exactly is the EU not a superpower?
 
This is kind of ironic. Ukraine is doing that. The only question is to which foreign power will its politico-economic elite subject the country. It is the West's attempt to "capture" the Ukraine that has led to the ousting of Ukraine's democratic government and the installment of a pro-West regime. There is no good reason to believe that Ukraine's population wants to be subjugated to the West in this way any more than there is good reason to believe it wants to be subjugated to Russia. What Ukrainians likely want is what people the world over want: freedom from foreign rule and independence. Unfortunately, that's not an option on the table in the Ukraine. In any event, it's something that has to come from within Ukraine, not orchestrated from without.

Weren't you going on about Chomsky at some point? I find it ironic that you use the same kind of language tricks he decries.
 
Nope what? The discount that is now being revoked was the one that charged Ukraine $268.5 per 1,000 cubic meters. You know the one that was part of the deal with Yanukovych that started this whole mess.

You said "Their "discount" was still more than it was sold for in Western Europe" which was factually wrong.

Yes, with "discount" in quotes, get it? Because the price they actually pay is more than what Western Europe pays, regardless of their on paper "discounts" (there have been several, the one that Russia offered recently was not the first).

Did you even read what I posted?
 
If you care so much, do you have anything to suggest?

Don't trust the EU and IMF.

Because...

This is kind of ironic. Ukraine is doing that. The only question is to which foreign power will its politico-economic elite subject the country. It is the West's attempt to "capture" the Ukraine that has led to the ousting of Ukraine's democratic government and the installment of a pro-West regime. There is no good reason to believe that Ukraine's population wants to be subjugated to the West in this way any more than there is good reason to believe it wants to be subjugated to Russia. What Ukrainians likely want is what people the world over want: freedom from foreign rule and independence. Unfortunately, that's not an option on the table in the Ukraine. In any event, it's something that has to come from within Ukraine, not orchestrated from without.

Once Ukraine gets a healthy dose of strict and criplling austerity I imagine their opinions on the EU will change drastically.


Weren't you going on about Chomsky at some point? I find it ironic that you use the same kind of language tricks he decries.

That was probably me.
 
I've read some books written by Chomsky, but I've no idea what you're talking about.

I must've gotten confused, sorry. What I mean is how your word choices making all sorts of arguments that need something to back them up, but don't because they're just that, a choice of words.
 
I must've gotten confused, sorry. What I mean is how your word choices making all sorts of arguments that need something to back them up, but don't because they're just that, a choice of words.

I think what he's saying is that there's very little difference between Russia installing a puppet government and Germany forcing Ukrainian policy through loan conditions. In both instances Ukraine will be taking orders from another country with results that benefit the other party first, Ukraine second.
 
I must've gotten confused, sorry. What I mean is how your word choices making all sorts of arguments that need something to back them up, but don't because they're just that, a choice of words.

I understand what you're saying; I think that is the problem with a lot of the pro-West and pro-Russian posts. I consciously try to describe the observable world accurately, which is why my words are different.

If you would like to identify some words for me to back up that I have utilized, feel free. I would be happy to do so.
 
Don't trust the EU and IMF.

Because...

First of all I was addressing that guy for a reason. He just keep stating how shitty EU and Ukraine are. Does it mean Russia is saint?

If Ukraine does accept your "advice" it goes bankrupt. Nobody is going to give money to Ukraine without getting something back. Russia clearly want's at least 50% of Ukraine in exchange. IMF wants some influence on Ukrainian economy/ possible expansion for the EU.

So the options are:
1. Go with Russia and completely lose independence. (Crimea is clear example)
2. Go with EU and loose economic independence. (Could always just go bankrupt if decide not to join EU)

I think the choice is clear there. And I actually agreed with empty vessel. Ukraine does not have any other options. Economy was destroyed by corruption over the past 23 years. Another plus for EU since it's better (not great) with fighting corruption.
 
I think what he's saying is that there's very little difference between Russia installing a puppet government and Germany forcing Ukrainian policy through loan conditions. In both instances Ukraine will be taking orders from another country with results that benefit the other party first, Ukraine second.

There is actually loads of difference. It might be dangerous to Ukraine either way, but that's way too vague to draw equivalence. Since I'm too tired to sound smart for long, I'll give the obvious example (and it's pro-EU because I live in the EU and really don't like the way Russia is heading these days): gays. It's better to be a gay person in EU than in Russia.
 
I think what he's saying is that there's very little difference between Russia installing a puppet government and Germany forcing Ukrainian policy through loan conditions. In both instances Ukraine will be taking orders from another country with results that benefit the other party first, Ukraine second.

How is "puppet government" the same as "forcing Ukrainian policy through loan conditions"? By definition you are giving up your independence if you have "puppet government". And you won't be able to get it back. Russia even wanted to have one soccer league with Ukraine. It's giving up EVERYTHING.

"forcing Ukrainian policy through loan conditions" is standard practice all over the world. It still gives you freedom to decide on things that make up a nation. IMF is not going to tell you which soccer clubs could play in which league.
 
First of all I was addressing that guy for a reason. He just keep stating how shitty EU and Ukraine are. Does it mean Russia is saint?

If Ukraine does accept your "advice" it goes bankrupt. Nobody is going to give money to Ukraine without getting something back. Russia clearly want's at least 50% of Ukraine in exchange. IMF wants some influence on Ukrainian economy/ possible expansion for the EU.

So the options are:
1. Go with Russia and completely lose independence. (Crimea is clear example)
2. Go with EU and loose economic independence. (Could always just go bankrupt if decide not to join EU)

I think the choice is clear there. And I actually agreed with empty vessel. Ukraine does not have any other options. Economy was destroyed by corruption over the past 23 years. Another plus for EU since it's better (not great) with fighting corruption.

Joining the EU but not the Euro is the way to go currently. You get the benefits of EU, but when shit hits the fan you don't have to go down like Greece with the Euro.
 
I understand what you're saying; I think that is the problem with a lot of the pro-West and pro-Russian posts. I consciously try to describe the observable world accurately, which is why my words are different.

If you would like to identify some words for me to back up that I have utilized, feel free. I would be happy to do so.

Like I have posted already, the false equivalence between EU and Russia.
 
Joining the EU but not the Euro is the way to go currently. You get the benefits of EU, but when shit hits the fan you don't have to go down like Greece with the Euro.

Only Ukrainians can make that decision, ultimately, and unfortunately its democratic processes have been upended. Were I Ukrainian, I would probably advocate rejecting what's behind both Door #1 (EU/USA) and Door #2 (Russia).

Resident_UA has an opinion that Door #1 is the best of available options. I'm sure other Ukrainians think Door #2 is. It's a shame more do not demand None Of The Above, but there is probably not adequate political organizing around that option.

I do think that entering the EMU and giving up monetary sovereignty has to be considered the worst option of all (for any country not named Germany). Joining the Eurasian customs union would not require forfeiting currency sovereignty.

Like I have posted already, the false equivalence between EU and Russia.

I am not sure what false equivalencies you mean. Both are imperial neoliberal powers. That is an accurate description of the world.
 
What are you trying to say? See my post above. If you care so much, do you have anything to suggest? It sounds like you are just badmouthing EU and Ukraine with no real purpose.

I merely responded to what the poster above me was saying. In relations to your post, I refer you to my post above where I said that Ukraine should have strived for economic and political integration with Russia. Whether you like it or not, that was the only rational path for Ukraine. On its current trajectory, Ukraine will be bankrupt in a very short time which could be prelude to a civil war or a direct break up. Anyone doing a rational analysis of Ukraine's financial state will tell you the same. And this is without Russia applying additional economic pressure. I thought I made my position clear in the posts above, I'm sorry for the confusion.
 
Funny how, in the scope of this single page, the EU has managed to get described first by Lagspike as an incoherent mess of countries that can't even get on the same page in face of a possible external threat and then by empty vessel as a devious imperialist neoliberal superpower that wants to rule Ukraine as a puppetmaster.

I'm tempted to say that the EU must be doing something right but I somewhat doubt anything the EU is actually doing provided input of any kind to those views.
 
I've read some books written by Chomsky, but I've no idea what you're talking about.

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I must've gotten confused, sorry. What I mean is how your word choices making all sorts of arguments that need something to back them up, but don't because they're just that, a choice of words.

No, you were right, don't let him try to fool you.
I asked for observations of propaganda as Kapsama was accusing the western media of that. EV then, instead of actually answering my questions, called my view of propaganda naivë and linked to a theory of western propaganda by Chomsky.

Obviously, EV could argue that's not going on about Chomsky.
I'm gonna go with him still being intentionally dishonest instead, just as I called him out to be. Not seen him do much else than trying to sidestep around shit to not directly adress any arguments.
 
I am not sure what false equivalencies you mean. Both are imperial neoliberal powers. That is an accurate description of the world.

We just watched Putin remove Crimea from Ukraine and he is now massing tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine's border, having demanded literal breaking up of the entire Ukrainian state. It is blindingly obvious that there are enormous differences between EU and Russia for Ukraine.
 
Only Ukrainians can make that decision, ultimately, and unfortunately it's democratic processes have been upended. Were I Ukrainian, I would probably advocate rejecting what's behind both Door #1 (EU/USA) and Door #2 (Russia).

Resident_UA has an opinion that Door #1 is the best of available options. I'm sure other Ukrainians think Door #2 is. It's a shame more do not demand None Of The Above, but there is probably not adequate political organizing around that option.

I'm sorry but the false naivety is just too much in this post. Russia literally invaded the country a month ago, and is now demanding the breakup of the country under the threat of war. There is no fucking door number 3 at this point, if Ukraine doesn't decide to get closer to the EU it's just going to get curbstomped by Russia.

All of this is completely irrelevant anyway, a significant majority of ukrainians have been in favour of closer ties with (and eventually adhesion to) the European union for years and years, and it's hard to see how the recent events could have changed that.
 
"forcing Ukrainian policy through loan conditions" is standard practice all over the world. It still gives you freedom to decide on things that make up a nation. IMF is not going to tell you which soccer clubs could play in which league.

The IMF is going to force an end to social support. While you're going to be worrying about your football club poor Ukrainians are going to go without social support. In countries like Ireland and Greece that literally means starvation and homelessness.

Providing the basic necessities trumps football clubs, though Russia's attitudes towards homosexuals is absolutely an issue no one should give any ground to Russia.
 
I merely responded to what the poster above me was saying. In relations to your post, I refer you to my post above where I said that Ukraine should have strived for economic and political integration with Russia. Whether you like it or not, that was the only rational path for Ukraine. On its current trajectory, Ukraine will be bankrupt in a very short time which could be prelude to a civil war or a direct break up. Anyone doing a rational analysis of Ukraine's financial state will tell you the same. And this is without Russia applying additional economic pressure. I thought I made my position clear in the posts above, I'm sorry for the confusion.

Your post pretty much summarizes Russian position which barely acknowledges Ukrainian independence. This could have been an option (that i would have disagreed with anyway) BEFORE Russia invaded Ukraine. Now your suggestion would basically mean Ukraine becoming part of Russia. And yes THAT would mean civil war. I know the side I would be fighting on.
 
The IMF is going to force an end to social support. While you're going to be worrying about your football club poor Ukrainians are going to go without social support. In countries like Ireland and Greece that literally means starvation and homelessness.

Providing the basic necessities trumps football clubs, though Russia's attitudes towards homosexuals is absolutely an issue no one should give any ground to Russia.

Ukrainian social support sucks (so does Russian by the way). You get $100 a month if you are lucky. The only good thing is supporting recent mothers. I haven't seen IMF pressuring on Ukraine on this point. Your point has no merit in reality. (And it can't considering that "social support" you are mentioning does not exist in either Russia nor Ukraine)

EDIT: The situation in Ukraine is not even close to the situation in Greece. Ukraine is already past the point where Greece could end up. You are greatly overestimating accomplishments of Ukrainian government.
 
Strict austerity is a requirement of the IMF loan.

True. But as I said austerity in Ukraine does not mean the same as austerity in Greece. Ukraine already passed austerity requirements. Mostly tax reform and increase in gas prices. Not much to cut in Ukraine from "social protection" point.
 
I don't think there's really much validity in a Greece comparison. Not saying that austerity isn't a massively destructive tool, but the two countries economic and political situations, as well as the historical and geopolitical setting, are extremely, extremely different.
 
I don't think there's really much validity in a Greece comparison. Not saying that austerity isn't a massively destructive tool, but the two countries economic and political situations, as well as the historical and geopolitical setting, are extremely, extremely different.

Social protection is the biggest one. You really can't cut much from $100 a month. It's pocket change to IMF and they are not even pretending that they care.

In Ukraine the biggest austerity measure would be getting rid of corruption. If IMF can help with that they could become savior of Ukraine. :) In fact I trust in IMF more than I trust Ukrainian politicians.
 
While we're talking about polls and the Greeks getting fucked by EU and IMF vultures (however off-topic that may be), I thought I'd provide some perspective. Here is a (oldish I have to say) NYT article about the fact that despite hating the austerity, the population of all the south european economies that are in trouble are still in favour of keeping the euro (to say nothing of staying in the EU). In the case of Greece, massively (71%).

So much for the imperialist west crushing the will of the people.
 
In Ukraine the biggest austerity measure would be getting rid of corruption. If IMF can help with that they could become savior of Ukraine. :) In fact I trust in IMF more than I trust Ukrainian politicians.

I agree that corruption is a big problem; I'm less optimistic the IMF can solve that for you. Ukrainians need to organize themselves to solve it, and it won't be easy.

While we're talking about polls and the Greeks getting fucked by EU and IMF vultures (however off-topic that may be), I thought I'd provide some perspective. Here is a (oldish I have to say) NYT article about the fact that despite hating the austerity, the population of all the south european economies that are in trouble are still in favour of keeping the euro (to say nothing of staying in the EU). In the case of Greece, massively (71%).

So much for the imperialist west crushing the will of the people.

The ways in which the EMU are fucking them over is obscured from them. Their desire for European cooperation--a laudable goal--is being exploited, and they do not understand that this particular structure of cooperation is ravaging their societies. There is no real question that being in the EMU is a terrible idea for all countries except Germany. Of course, those populations are going to have to realize that for themselves. Let's hope they do before it leads to war on the European continent.
 
Your post pretty much summarizes Russian position which barely acknowledges Ukrainian independence. This could have been an option (that i would have disagreed with anyway) BEFORE Russia invaded Ukraine. Now your suggestion would basically mean Ukraine becoming part of Russia. And yes THAT would mean civil war. I know the side I would be fighting on.

That's what I was arguing, what Ukraine should have done. Right now, its options are much more limited.
 
That's what I were arguing, what Ukraine should have done. Right now, its options are much more limited.

Well in this case "limited options" is a good thing considering how Russia acted.

Back then in seemed like Russia was acting friendly, but if you look at Crimea it is clear what they planed all along. So the thing that you said before was just a perception. In reality Ukraine would have been fucked. We would have lost whole country to the puppet government, not just Crimea.
 
I agree that corruption is a big problem; I'm less optimistic the IMF can solve that for you. Ukrainians need to organize themselves to solve it, and it won't be easy.

100% agree. Russia is no help there no matter how much money it pumps into Ukraine. :)
Asking Russia to help with corruption is like asking them to solve your alcoholism problem.
 
The ways in which the EMU are fucking them over is obscured from them. Their desire for European cooperation--a laudable goal--is being exploited, and they do not understand that this particular structure of cooperation is ravaging their societies. There is no real question that being in the EMU is a terrible idea for all countries except Germany. Of course, those populations are going to have to realize that for themselves. Let's hope they do before it leads to war on the European continent.

Right. So now we're defending the greeks from themselves and the political decisions they overwhelmingly approve for their own country. In the name of what I'm not exactly sure but ok, something something world war 3.

How does this translate to Ukraine? Their political leaders need to ignore the clear demand from their population to get closer to Europe because it could lead to even more support for Europe once they're in? Or do you mean we should ignore them because we don't want to hurt the russians' feelings so much that they'll have no choice but to start a war?
 
Right. So now we're defending the greeks from themselves and the political decisions they overwhelmingly approve for their own country. In the name of what I'm not exactly sure but ok, something something world war 3.

I'm pretty sure I said it was up to the Greeks to figure out how they are getting fucked by the EMU.

How does this translate to Ukraine? Their political leaders need to ignore the clear demand from their population to get closer to Europe because it could lead to even more support for Europe once they're in? Or do you mean we should ignore them because we don't want to hurt the russians' feelings so much that they'll have no choice but to start a war?

I don't care what the Ukraine does, although I would prefer that whatever it does be by a democratic government (which it is lacking). I could not tell you whether the Ukraine will be better off in the Russian sphere or the Western sphere. I'm sure that will depend to a large extent on future events. (For example, I've said that joining the EMU would be the worst of all outcomes, but joining the EU short of that could prove less bad than being in the Russian sphere.) I am pretty sure, however, that Ukrainians would be best served being independent from both, i.e., by rejecting neoliberalism entirely.
 
I'm pretty sure I said it was up to the Greeks to figure out how they are getting fucked by the EMU.



I don't care what the Ukraine does, although I would prefer that whatever it does be by a democratic government (which it is lacking). I could not tell you whether the Ukraine will be better off in the Russian sphere or the Western sphere. I'm sure that will depend to a large extent on future events. (For example, I've said that joining the EMU would be the worst of all outcomes, but joining the EU short of that could prove less bad than being in the Russian sphere.) I am pretty sure, however, that Ukrainians would be best served being independent from both.

Well it looks like you have it all figured out then. What should the west do until the greeks and the ukrainians get your memo? Roll over and let Russia carve up the country 19th century style?

I'm not even sure what you're arguing anymore, just that you'd really really like if Ukraine just said fuck you to everyone? That's great but that doesn't seem possible, the russians at least seem pretty intent on getting their voice heard...
 
I don't care what the Ukraine does, although I would prefer that whatever it does be by a democratic government (which it is lacking).

I've said that joining the EMU would be the worst of all outcomes.

Well there are elections on May 25th... And guess what? Russia is not happy about them.

The worst of all outcomes would be completely losing the independence (AKA - Making any deal with Russia). Anything else is acceptable at this point. And yes, there's no great option here.
 
So now NASA has suspended ties with Russia? Who do they have to bum a ride off of now? :D

"The U.S. relies on the Russian Souyez rockets for all manned trips to and from space. NASA signed an agreement with Russia last April, governing six flights through 2017, at a cost of $70.7 million per seat."
 
So now NASA has suspended ties with Russia? Who do they have to bum a ride off of now? :D

"The U.S. relies on the Russian Souyez rockets for all manned trips to and from space. NASA signed an agreement with Russia last April, governing six flights through 2017, at a cost of $70.7 million per seat."

Anything related to the upkeep of the space station is immune.
 
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