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Ukrainian Conflict - Donetsk Boogaloo

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You have a large base in Japan. The Russian's wouldn't dare. Now if you didn't have a base. You would do jackshit.

Oh yes we would, but that's exactly why we have a base there. You don't wait until the shit hits the fan to build defenses.
 
In comparison with some other countries who are growing their militaries, the US is quickly weakening. It is not just a domestic equation.

Others are growing faster and more efficiently. And that is not just a "boots on the ground" growth. It is tech, equipment, resource deals etc.

Look at what China is doing with their military on 1/5th the money and WAAAAAY less debt.

Proof on all accounts.
 
Oh yes we would, but that's exactly why we have a base there. You don't wait until the shit hits the fan to build defenses.

No nuclear power would directly attack another nuclear power. Since you have a base there Japan is a no-go for Russia or China.
 
Japan has already started to do just that. With the increased hostilities with China, Japan didn't turn to the U.S. for more assurances...they increased their defense budget by 6x.

As they are right to do so. The US has been fairly ambiguous on the status of the Senkakus and whether or not a war fought over them would trigger automatic US involvement on Japan's side. The Japanese can't afford ambiguity, they need to know if the US is 100% behind them. If not then Japan is right to re-arm and scrap Article 9.
 
This is more of a European conflict which means nothing really will happen from the West. I'm not even sure if there would be economic sanctions since it could motivate Russia to sell more arms to Afghanistan and other such deals.
You mean like on the Balkans?
 
Fine but if they're going to do that, this situation shouldn't change anything about that discussion. Also, believe me it means something. You think if Russia or anyone else would invade Japan we would just sit there with our thumb up our ass?

Of course not. But if Japan got into a naval clash on its northern border, say over fishing rights for Japanese fishermen in the disputed Kuril Islands area, would the US intervene on Japan's behalf? Same in the East China Sea, if the JMSDF got into a clash with the PLA Navy near the Senkakus would the US REALLY assist or would it come up with some excuse in order not to risk upsetting its largest creditor?
 
Two Russian warships have been spotted near Sevastopol, according to Reuters.

Jesus Christ, this is really happening, isn't it?

I can't get way from this Issue, it's been dominating the days events at work.
now I got to the stage that unless anything is happening I am just going to keep monitoring the situation and not make judgments, I kind of had an over load of it.

Pics from Reuters and AP being playing out all day and live shots of what is happening in Kiev with the protesters gather in independence square in Kiev, I am curious and keep GAF up to see how the reporting on TV and web/GAF match or who has what news first.

not sounding callous of what is going on, I feel for those affected and I don't want anything to happen.
 
We (Austria) might be able to help further. We have like two 10 year old planes and a tank or two.



I was writting this regarding to this news and forgot to delete the ship stuff, sry
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/01/us-ukraine-crisis-military-idUSBREA200UG20140301

No worries, you guys can just sit back. Sweden's got it. We've got stealth boats. Stealth. Boats. And stealth tanks. And stealth subs. We're practically NOD at this point. Everyone just thinks we're weak as shit because they can't see our units.

You'll see! The Baltic will be our mare nostrum! Dominum maris baltici!
 
If I would get a dollar every time some politician says the word "concerned" I'd be a fucking quadrillionair right now and would buy Crimea.

Speaking of which I hope the 2018 World Cup in Russia is now taken off them.
You don't know much about the FIFA right? They don't give a shit about anything.
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u816y0jUUmE

This polish scientist in America uses all the information Russia revealed about the crash to prove that everything they said was bullshit. Not to mention there was evidence of shots being fired before the plane crashed and the evidence was tampered with. It was examined in Russia before going to Poland. Bodies weren't returned when families asked for them. There whole thing is a massive cover up.

Didn't the Polish president also want to install anti-nuclear defense system across its Eastern border also? Some time after the president died after the crash I remember hearing about some Polish generals attempting ( 1 did succeed?) at committing suicide some weird stuff.
 
Why is it ethnical discrimination assimilating foreigners into Ukrainians? If I were to move to the US shouldn't I feel like US is my country? Did all the blacks live in a single state in the USA?

Yes they share a lot in common (language, similar genetics) but they have differentiated enough from each other to be two distinct nations.

They are not Russian citizens, they have lived in Ukraine for generations. Which means that they are not foreigners, they are Ukrainian citizens with, in some cases, centuries of history in Ukraine, living in particular places, having families and relatives in their respective areas. Do you understand that? You can't just move millions of people across the country at will.

You're proposing to somehow forcefully resettle those people just because you think that the government shouldn't want to have a large concentration of a particular ethnicity in a single place. I'm sorry, but this is indeed ethnic discrimination. This is what the nazis and the bolhseviks did. Such a cruel and stupid thing to say.
 
In comparison with some other countries who are growing their militaries, the US is quickly weakening. It is not just a domestic equation.

Others are growing faster and more efficiently. And that is not just a "boots on the ground" growth. It is tech, equipment, resource deals etc.

Look at what China is doing with their military on 1/5th the money and WAAAAAY less debt.

Your conclusion makes no sense. Of course a nation that was way behind the military tech race would be growing faster once it started to modernize than the US who was already at the forefront of military tech. That doesnt mean that the United States is weakening, it simply means that other nations are buying and investing in military tech that is already out there.

And more efficiently? Where the hell is the proof of that? Just because China is a totalitarian regime does not mean that its more efficient than the US. The bureaucracy in China is not something that I would call efficient.

Not sure what debt has to do with it either.
 
Here's Admiral James Stavridis (Former NATO 16th Supreme Allied Commander Europe) opinion on what NATO should be doing after todays events:

  • Increasing all intelligence-gathering functions through satellite, Predator unmanned vehicles, and especially cyber.
  • Using the NATO-Ukrainian Council and existing military partnerships with the Ukrainian military to share information, intelligence, and situational awareness with authorities in Kiev.
  • Providing advice to Ukrainian armed forces to prepare and position themselves in the event of further conflict.
  • Developing NATO contingency plans to react to full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to a partial invasion likely of Crimea. NATO contingency planning can be cumbersome, but in Libya it moved quickly.
  • Assigning one of the NATO Joint Force Commands (either Naples, Italy, or Brunsum, Netherlands) into direct overwatch of the situation.
  • Standing up NATO crisis centers to full manning, especially at SHAPE and the relevant Joint Force Command.
  • Ensuring that the Land and Maritime Component Commands (Northwood in the United Kingdom and Izmir, Turkey, respectively) are conducting prudent planning in their areas of expertise and feeding their analysis to the Joint Force Command.
  • Bringing the NATO Response Force, a 25,000 man sea, air, land, special forces capability to a higher state of alert.
  • Convening allies with cyber-capabilities (this is not a NATO specialty) to consider options -- at a minimum to defend Ukraine if it is attacked in this domain (as Georgia was).
  • Sailing NATO maritime forces into the Black Sea and setting up contingency plans for their use.
 
You mean the Sarah Palin who predicted in 2008 that Russia would end up invading Ukraine, and everyone said she was an idiot for even suggesting such a thing?

She didn't say anything, she was told what to say.
 
A split Ukraine is the only answer, but no one likes to see their country lose territory so instead of letting the West join Europe and the East join Russia, they will fight a bloody civil war instead.
 
When was the last time the world has seen a full on Army v. Army war?

I'm not too well versed on this subject, but why is Russia invading, does anyone know for sure? Have they issued any statements? Do they just want Crimea?

Russia is using the justification that troops need to be deployed "to protect the safety of Russians" in Ukraine. Putin got approval from the Russian parliament to deploy troops in all of Ukraine. It is pretty much an open secret that Russian troops are currently occupying Crimea at the moment. No one really knows how far Russia plans on going beyond Crimea as of right now.
 
You mean like on the Balkans?

True. Maybe Russian/European conflict would have been a better word choice. But the Balkans brings me to this somewhat interesting quote (albeit from wikipedia) that has some parallels to the attitudes seen throughout the thread and etc:

In his book The Clinton Tapes: Wrestling History with the President from 2009, historian and author Taylor Branch, a long-time friend of former United States president Bill Clinton, made public more than 70 recorded sessions with the president during his presidency from 1993 through 2001:

Clinton said U.S. allies in Europe blocked proposals to adjust or remove the embargo. They justified their opposition on plausible humanitarian grounds, arguing that more arms would only fuel the bloodshed, but privately, said the president, key allies objected that an independent Bosnia would be "unnatural" as the only Muslim nation in Europe. He said they favored the embargo precisely because it locked in Bosnia's disadvantage. [..] When I expressed shock at such cynicism, reminiscent of the blind-eye diplomacy regarding the plight of Europe's Jews during World War II, President Clinton only shrugged. He said President François Mitterrand of France had been especially blunt in saying that Bosnia did not belong, and that British officials also spoke of a painful but realistic restoration of Christian Europe. Against Britain and France, he said, German chancellor Helmut Kohl among others had supported moves to reconsider the United Nations arms embargo, failing in part because Germany did not hold a seat on the U.N. Security Council.

—Taylor Branch, excerpt from his book- The Clinton Tapes: Wrestling History with the President[56]
The Bosnian government lobbied to have the embargo lifted but that was opposed by the United Kingdom, France and Russia. US proposals to pursue this policy were known as lift and strike. The US congress passed two resolutions calling for the embargo to be lifted but both were vetoed by President Bill Clinton for fear of creating a rift between the US and the aforementioned countries. Nonetheless, the United States used both "black" C-130 transports and back channels including Islamist groups to smuggle weapons to Bosnian-Muslim forces via Croatia.[53] Inter Services Intelligence played active role during 1992-1995 and secretly supplied the Muslim fighters with arms, ammunition and guided anti tank missiles to give them a fighting chance against the aggression.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_War#Summary
 
Of course not. But if Japan got into a naval clash on its northern border, say over fishing rights for Japanese fishermen in the disputed Kuril Islands area, would the US intervene on Japan's behalf? Same in the East China Sea, if the JMSDF got into a clash with the PLA Navy near the Senkakus would the US REALLY assist or would it come up with some excuse in order not to risk upsetting its largest creditor?

I don't know but that's nothing new. The UK had the same worries during the height of the cold war. The U.S. has already said the treaty would include Japan's dispute over Kuril Islands. If I was a betting man I would say yes we would intervene as that would be a direct assault to our world position.
 
Russia is stupid, what to they expect from this?

They cannot realistically occupy the whole of Ukraine. Ukrainian nationalists supplied with modern western equipment would make it a living hell for the Russian military.

All they get is Crimea, and at best a few eastern provinces where little resistance is to be expected.

In return they will be perceived again as a threat by all neighboring countries and drive them into the arms of NATO. Is that what Russia wants?

Jeez.
 
Oh really? Is that why Lockheed Marietta up the street from my office is losing jobs left and right? Defense contracts are getting cancelled, orders are shrinking.

mfKA0RO.jpg

.
 
Proof on all accounts.

Are you insinuating that China is at the same debt level and military expenditure levels as the US? They simply are not. And anyone following the news in the last 3 years knows that China has been on a military push.

Are you also saying that Chinese tech companies are mired in unionization and other NA business practices that bloat military spending? Again, China is under a different system.

Dollar for dollar, I guarantee China is getting more bang for their buck in military spending.

They are making technology advances at a faster and more efficient rate than the US has.

Now what I am not saying is that China is at the level of the US militarily, so don't get me wrong there.

I am saying that they are growing faster and more efficiently than the US is. That coupled with crippling debt in the US and many domestic/foreign problems, China's military is growing in strength, and the US is weakening in relative terms.

This has been pouring out of the headlines for years now...but I guess if you want me to go find debt numbers/military spending/tech/US military operation articles of the US vs. China, I can.
 
Your conclusion makes no sense. Of course a nation that was way behind the military tech race would be growing faster once it started to modernize than the US who was already at the forefront of military tech. That doesnt mean that the United States is weakening, it simply means that other nations are buying and investing in military tech that is already out there.

And more efficiently? Where the hell is the proof of that? Just because China is a totalitarian regime does not mean that its more efficient than the US. The bureaucracy in China is not something that I would call efficient.

Not sure what debt has to do with it either.

You don't believe that a nations debt doesn't directly affect their ability to enter and maintain a military operation? I mean, how much more debt could the US possibly go into before it collapses completely? Not much, I wager.
 
Are you insinuating that China is at the same debt level and military expenditure levels as the US? They simply are not. And anyone following the news in the last 3 years knows that China has been on a military push.

Are you also saying that Chinese tech companies are mired in unionization and other NA business practices that bloat military spending? Again, China is under a different system.

Dollar for dollar, I guarantee China is getting more bang for their buck in military spending.

They are making technology advances at a faster and more efficient rate than the US has.

Now what I am not saying is that China is at the level of the US militarily, so don't get me wrong there.

I am saying that they are growing faster and more efficiently than the US is. That coupled with crippling debt in the US and many domestic/foreign problems, China's military is growing in strength, and the US is weakening in relative terms.

This has been pouring out of the headlines for years now...but I guess if you want me to go find debt numbers/military spending/tech/US military operation articles of the US vs. China, I can.

Trying too hard. US is miles ahead technologically because of decades of spending 20x as much as everyone else on conventional warfare tech. What you saw in Iraq and Afghanistan is no indication of what they are capable of in a true war.
 
1936 Berlin Olympics.

Germany also had the 1936 winter Olympics. Add to that that the 1940 summer and winter Olympics were awarded to Japan and the 1944 summer Olympics to Italy and... yeah. The IOC sure knows how to pick 'em. None of those happened, of course.
 
Hm are there any new news about new Russian forces landing on Crimea? It looks like nothing new after morning 'shipment'. Only reports of pro Russian rallies in several cities.

Speaking of which I hope the 2018 World Cup in Russia is now taken off them.

You should really read about FIFA and how 'transparent' they are.
 
Trying too hard. US is miles ahead technologically because of decades of spending 20x as much as everyone else on conventional warfare tech. What you saw in Iraq and Afghanistan is no indication of what they are capable of in a true war.

There will never be another "true war" if what you are talking about is massive scale land battles. The US dominance of conventional warfare means little when most modern wars are fought in the streets of ruined cities against irregular forces that use the urban landscape to hide from larger scale, better equipped forces.
 
Hm are there any new news about new Russian forces landing on Crimea? It looks like nothing new after morning 'shipment'.



You should really read about FIFA and how 'transparent' they are.

It's well after dark in Crimea now. Don't expect any news for the next 10 hours or so unless Russia goes for an all-out night-time invasion.
 
You don't believe that a nations debt doesn't directly affect their ability to enter and maintain a military operation? I mean, how much more debt could the US possibly go into before it collapses completely? Not much, I wager.

A nation'a debt is an imaginary political construct. The US government creates dollars and in exchange for dollars hands out promises of dollars.

The vast majority of our "debt" is owed to ourselves. Explain how that is going to cause it to collapse.
 
Trying too hard. US is miles ahead technologically because of decades of spending 20x as much as everyone else on conventional warfare tech. What you saw in Iraq and Afghanistan is no indication of what they are capable of in a true war.

The "classic" war is definitely over, the asymmetric warfare is the only war in the future.

Speaking of which I hope the 2018 World Cup in Russia is now taken off them.

You should read something about the different sports organization and their "no politics in sport" agenda.
 
You don't believe that a nations debt doesn't directly affect their ability to enter and maintain a military operation? I mean, how much more debt could the US possibly go into before it collapses completely? Not much, I wager.

No

Interest rates on American bonds are basically the lowest in the world. That means that the world market thinks that we are the safest investment in the world and that we will honor our debt. Debt only becomes an issue if the world market thinks that a nation won't or can't honor its debt and interest rates skyrocket.

The amount of debt or debt to gdp ratio really doesnt matter on this because a nation with low debt or a lower debt to gdp ratio could find themselves in a situation where their interest rates skyrocket because other nations do not have faith that they can pay back their obligations

I mean, hell, people before World War 1 thought that once a nation ran out of money the war would end. That sure as shit didnt come to pass because other nations, specifically the US, gave the Allies a shit ton of credit because it was in their interest to keep them fueled with money, munitions, and manpower

Basically, what I am saying is that its a lot more complicated than a high debt level. If a nation has access to the world market and access to outside credit, and the world market has faith in that nation to get it back, they will get credit. If its in another nation or nations interest for the warring nation to win, that nation will supply them with credit, munitions and supplies.

And just because we have a high debt doesnt really mean anything. We have a huge fucking economy. Our debt to gdp level is by no means absurd. Its frankly pretty average amongst other states. Japan, for example, has twice the debt to gdp level that we do.

There is also the contention that debt to gdp is a pretty simplistic measure that doesnt mean shit

debt.jpg.CROP.promovar-mediumlarge.jpg


http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/02/27/debt_alarmist_chart.html

The conventional way for debt scaremongers to measure the national debt is to compare gross public debt to GDP. But the normal way you measure the debt load of a business or a household is to ask for a net figure. Just because you have hundreds of thousands of dollars in mortgage debt doesn't mean you're a pauper. In fact it probably means you're a rich person who owns an expensive house. It is of course possible to take out a large mortgage and then end up "underwater" because house prices decline, but it's simply not the case that a large amount of gross debt is a sign of overextension. It's typically a sign of prosperity and creditworthiness.
 
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