I think Modern Warfare 2 is going to win GOTY from the majority of sites. Not a total majority, maybe 70/30, something like that.
- It's multi-platform
- The media and fan hype for UC2 was huge, but still not as big as MW2.
- The complaint I saw the most about UC2 was "it's not innovative, it's just a Gears-Tomb Raider-Indiana Jones copy". MW2 has been immune to the "doesn't do anything particularity new" complaints, for some reason. Actually it's been immune to most complaints that other games are subjected to, like the very short campaign.
- MW2 is about more serious, current issues, while UC2 is more like a summer action movie.
- IW will get points for doing that controversial scene that got people talking, while UC2 doesn't have anything like that.
- The multiplayer in MW2 is much more advanced and refined.
I haven't played MW2 so I don't know what game I would like more, this is just my gut feeling. Just by reading the official thread though, I doubt MW2 would surpass UC2 for me. UC2 is my game of the gen. It's innovative in its great pacing, grand set-pieces, spot-on voice acting, genuinely amusing dialogue, and realistic characters. The last three seems to be lost on the "doesn't do anything new" people on how important they are. We've been stuck with poor characters, voice acting and dialogue for the entire history of videogames, and Naughty Dog pushed the industry forward with what they did there.
We'll see what happens when the hype for MW2 calms down a bit. There has been a lot of negativity around this title to also take into consideration. UC2 had surprisingly very little hype backlash.