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[SliceSabre]

The U.S. economy created the fewest number of jobs in more than five years in May, hurt by a strike by Verizon (VZ.N) workers and a fall in goods producing employment, pointing to labor market weakness that could make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 38,000 jobs last month, the smallest gain since September 2010, the Labor Department said on Friday. Employers hired 59,000 fewer workers in March and April. The government said the month-long Verizon strike had depressed employment growth by 34,000 jobs.

The goods producing sector, which includes mining and manufacturing, shed 36,000 jobs, the most since February 2010.

Even without the Verizon strike, payrolls would have increased by a mere 72,000.

There is still no sign of meaningful wage growth. Average hourly earnings rose five cents, or 0.2 percent, last month.

That kept the year-on-year rise at 2.5 percent.

Economists say wage growth of between 3.0 percent and 3.5 percent is needed to lift inflation to the Fed's 2.0 percent target. There are, however, signs that inflation is creeping higher as the dampening effects of the dollar's past rally and the oil price plunge dissipate.

-Source


The one I pay attention to is always the wage growth number, but man that job growth number is super bad. Hopefully not a sign of things to come.

 

[Dennis]

That will give Trump and Hillary something to debate.

 

[Black Republican]

Obama what you doin'

 

[ItIsOkBro]

Like 3.5 million people graduate post-secondary education a year

During the 2015–16 school year, colleges and universities are expected to award 952,000 associate's degrees; 1.8 million bachelor's degrees; 802,000 master's degrees; and 179,000 doctor's degrees

Have fun guys

 

[Kinitari]

Obama what you doin'

Probably golfing instead of being out there with the people, giving them shovels for all the ditches that need digging!

 

[Sulik2]

The economy still has never recovered for your average middle class person from the recession despite the occasional good months and what pundits say. The economy is barely holding on and months like this yet again reveal it.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

That's not great. I'm gonna try and focus on the positives. 75 months straight at this point. Hopefully this is just a blip.

 

[Bladenic]

Mining and coal are dead, aren't they?

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I wonder how many of those jobs have decent pay.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

Thanks Obama

 

[giga]

Obama what you doin'

What do you expect him to do? No big spending bills are going to get passed in an election year.

 

[Tal Shiar Agent]

The economy still has never recovered for your average middle class person from the recession despite the occasional good months and what pundits say. The economy is barely holding on and months like this yet again reveal it.

Yep. The immense student loan burden is going to crash it all when it comes home to roost over the next few years.

 

[ahoyhoy]

These numbers are going to give Trump a boost.

Sucks for all the recent grads.

 

[Bruce Springsteen]

I wonder how many of those jobs have decent pay.

This needs to be asked every time jobs numbers are released. An engineer who can't find a job in his field and works as a waiter is still a job according to these figures. That's why these employment figures are always misleading

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Yep. The immense student loan burden is going to crash it all when it comes home to roost over the next few years.

Yeah, that's a big looming problem.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Yep. The immense student loan burden is going to crash it all when it comes home to roost over the next few years.

Do you think it will be as devastating as the recession?

 

[Thaedolus]

The economy still has never recovered for your average middle class person from the recession despite the occasional good months and what pundits say. The economy is barely holding on and months like this yet again reveal it.

Depends on what sector you work in. If you're in manufacturing and want to work a line job, or in coal and want to breath coal dust, your job isn't ever coming back. If you move on and get with the times, there's plenty of work available. My wife and I are in healthcare and medical devices. We aren't invulnerable, but those industries are about as "recession proof" as it gets, depending on area of focus. Oil can go up or down but people will always get sick.

A lot of people don't give a shit though and want a job on line. That's fine, but expect globalization to continually devalue your work and ship it overseas.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Mining and coal are dead, aren't they?

Depends what kind of mining. But coal, yes. And we should be grateful for that. Move towards gas short term and renewable.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Do you think it will be as devastating as the recession?

I don't think it'll necessarily be as bad, but it'll be different. Better in some metrics than in others, I guess. I think a big part of the reason the housing market crash hit the economy so hard is because so many big banks and firms were invested in the housing market, so when it went belly up, a lot of these large financial institutions weren't able to survive. Even people who weren't underwater on their houses were often involved in these banks and stuff, so they were hurt.

I don't think as many banks and firms and things are invested in the student loan market, so any disaster there wouldn't hit the economy in the same way.

The housing market crash was like his sudden destructive event because these banks collapsed. I don't think we'll see many banks collapse because of student loan debt. More likely just a generation with massively decreased spending because of student loan debt. More like a slow burn than an explosion.

But, this isn't like my field of expertise or anything. Just sort of what I've gathered. I really wouldn't take what I'm saying as gospel.

 

[Tal Shiar Agent]

Do you think it will be as devastating as the recession?

It'll be bad, how bad? I don't know, I'm not an economist.

But we've got a generation of young people too burdened with debt and unable to find gainful employment to engage meaningfully with the economy. Unable to purchase homes, unable to purchase cars, unable to participate in the mass consumer culture that is necessary to drive our economic system. They will also feel disillusioned and angry far beyond the superficial shit you see with BernieBros. The kind of anger that leads to mass civil unrest.

Compounding the problem is the lack of education of ways to help alleviate the debt, if only slightly. I'm one of these people with large student loans and a middling job but I also own a home and a newish car because I knew about programs like IBR as well as first time home buyer programs and grants. But for every person like me who has federal loans and knows about the programs there are a dozen who don't and end up paying the standard 10 year repayment or have private loans and have no respite at all.

 

[noshten]

The economy still has never recovered for your average middle class person from the recession despite the occasional good months and what pundits say. The economy is barely holding on and months like this yet again reveal it.

Pretty much. Manufacturing down ,auto sales down, health insurance prices going up, housing market for non-luxury homes is in the dumps, death rate going up, market not looking stable.

 

[Rabbi_Vole]

Depends what kind of mining. But coal, yes. And we should be grateful for that. Move towards gas short term and renewable.

Natural Gas might be as bad or worse than coal:
http://www.psr.org/environment-and-...ral-gas-the-newest-danger-global-warming.html

Clean-coal should have been the course. Many plants were already retrofitting and it allows communities to adjust and utility companies to recoup the cost of building these fricken plants in the first place after themandate to move away from gas and oil in the late 70's. Many utilities and communities are now left holding the bag on 100's of millions of debt.

 

[Frankfurter]

That's terrible news for the Democrats, I guess. How have the job figures been in the past couple of months, how many jobs does the US economy need to add (roughly) per month for the unemployment rate to stay the same, and what's the current unemployment rate?

 

[AndyD]

Mining and coal are dead, aren't they?

Pretty much. As long as natural gas and oil is cheap coal is dead. And the longer it's dead the more difficult it will be to bring it back to life.

 

[Vanillalite]

The need for a guaranteed minimum income grows by the second....

 

[gamechanger87]

That's terrible news for the Democrats, I guess. How have the job figures been in the past couple of months, how many jobs does the US economy need to add (roughly) per month for the unemployment rate to stay the same, and what's the current unemployment rate?

It's more complicated than that. The overall new jobs numbers have declined over recent months. However, the unemployment rate dropped even on these meager numbers because people dropped out of the workforce. You see all we need to do is have enough people quit looking for jobs and we can have no unemployment!

Really wonder how the Fed will react...I expect they stay the course and hike in June. They can't keep rates down forever and there will always feel like a better time to do it.

 

[AndyD]

I don't think it'll necessarily be as bad, but it'll be different. Better in some metrics than in others, I guess. I think a big part of the reason the housing market crash hit the economy so hard is because so many big banks and firms were invested in the housing market, so when it went belly up, a lot of these large financial institutions weren't able to survive. Even people who weren't underwater on their houses were often involved in these banks and stuff, so they were hurt.

I don't think as many banks and firms and things are invested in the student loan market, so any disaster there wouldn't hit the economy in the same way.

The housing market crash was like his sudden destructive event because these banks collapsed. I don't think we'll see many banks collapse because of student loan debt. More likely just a generation with massively decreased spending because of student loan debt. More like a slow burn than an explosion.

But, this isn't like my field of expertise or anything. Just sort of what I've gathered. I really wouldn't take what I'm saying as gospel.

I feel that unlike mortgages where there was significant private investment, student debt can be in part forgiven by the government since they hold most of it. If it looks like it will be a significant crisis, deferring payments or cancelling debt is much more doable. This was not as feasible with mortgages where there was something to reposess.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

That's terrible news for the Democrats, I guess. How have the job figures been in the past couple of months, how many jobs does the US economy need to add (roughly) per month for the unemployment rate to stay the same, and what's the current unemployment rate?

The current unemployment rate is 4.7% and it dropped .3% this month from 5.0%. I believe this is pretty much around the level people call "full employment" so it's not really expected to have a lot of room to move down.

However, someone is certain to point out that this number isn't the "real" number because it doesn't include people who aren't looking for work. The unemployment rate is the U3 which only counts people looking for work who can't find it. The U6 is a more broad member that includes those who aren't, or have given up on, looking for work.

The U6 is as 9.7%, showing no change from last month.

 

[Foffy]

-Source


The one I pay attention to is always the wage growth number, but man that job growth number is super bad. Hopefully not a sign of things to come.

Want to wage that it is?

 

[The Flop]

Can't wait for the debates tbh.

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

I guess Obama wants to tank things now so Clinton come in and play hero if she wins. Kind of sad really.

These numbers are going to give Trump a boost.

Sucks for all the recent grads.

Only for stupid people, we've essentially hit full employment at this point.

 

[backflip10019]

Thanks Obama

We can only say this for a few more months. Need to make the most of it.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

I feel that unlike mortgages where there was significant private investment, student debt can be in part forgiven by the government since they hold most of it. If it looks like it will be a significant crisis, deferring payments or cancelling debt is much more doable. This was not as feasible with mortgages where there was something to reposess.

I agree. Hopefully if it begins to become problematic, we can count on the government to do something about if. I'm not optimistic, though. There's going to be some large section of the population against student loan forgiveness because "I'm not in debt/didn't go to college and I don't want the government to use my tax dollars to bail out some art major!" Or some such nonsense.

 

[Amory]

Depends on what sector you work in. If you're in manufacturing and want to work a line job, or in coal and want to breath coal dust, your job isn't ever coming back. If you move on and get with the times, there's plenty of work available. My wife and I are in healthcare and medical devices. We aren't invulnerable, but those industries are about as "recession proof" as it gets, depending on area of focus. Oil can go up or down but people will always get sick.

A lot of people don't give a shit though and want a job on line. That's fine, but expect globalization to continually devalue your work and ship it overseas.

Ironically some of the last good manufacturing jobs in the US are in medical devices / pharmaceuticals. My company will throw between 40-50 grand + a shift differential and good benefits to pretty much anyone with an associate's degree to work on the manufacturing floor. It's how I got my start in the industry.

 

[Angelus Errare]

Yep. The immense student loan burden is going to crash it all when it comes home to roost over the next few years.

All things must crash before they can be reborn.

Personally I'm going to be annoyed at the hundreds of "experts" who "didn't see this coming" and the like. Ugh, shits going to be on the news 24/7.

 

[witchedwiz]

Depends on what sector you work in. If you're in manufacturing and want to work a line job, or in coal and want to breath coal dust, your job isn't ever coming back. If you move on and get with the times, there's plenty of work available. My wife and I are in healthcare and medical devices. We aren't invulnerable, but those industries are about as "recession proof" as it gets, depending on area of focus. Oil can go up or down but people will always get sick.

A lot of people don't give a shit though and want a job on line. That's fine, but expect globalization to continually devalue your work and ship it overseas.

it is recession proof as well..
sure your pay might get lower, but let's face it..
a software engineer that is NOT WORKING is either crap or is grossly overestimating his abilities&his daily wage

 

[giga]

That's terrible news for the Democrats, I guess. How have the job figures been in the past couple of months, how many jobs does the US economy need to add (roughly) per month for the unemployment rate to stay the same, and what's the current unemployment rate?

Payroll growth has averaged 150k this year. That's well above the amount necessary to sustain the 4.7% UR.

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

I feel that unlike mortgages where there was significant private investment, student debt can be in part forgiven by the government since they hold most of it. If it looks like it will be a significant crisis, deferring payments or cancelling debt is much more doable. This was not as feasible with mortgages where there was something to reposess.

Maybe it's only me but not all the student loans were made by the government for loans that are crippling them. Secondly, I think a major problem is it will forgive some current debt only on severely delinquent loans like they did with the housing market. Which is all well and good but it doesn't solve the current problem of college prices being unreasonable and is just temporarily kicking the can so it's a bigger burden and blow up later on. It doesn't solve anything.

 

[pgtl_10]

Neoliberalism guys. Just give it more time. After all it has only been 40 years.

Why can't people treat economics like a tool rather than religion that changes with circumstance?

 

[LJ11]

I guess Obama wants to tank things now so Clinton come in and play hero if she wins. Kind of sad really.



Only for stupid people, we've essentially hit full employment at this point.

Are we? I mean I must be an idiot, I don't see major wage pressure.

 

[j0hnnix]

-Source


The one I pay attention to is always the wage growth number, but man that job growth number is super bad. Hopefully not a sign of things to come.

I agree while standard of living increases, wage does not.. this will just put us in another hole. Hoping that is not the case.. I know my company is not increases wages, providing substantial raises at all , instead they are dropping more hurdles to avoid providing any salary increase.

 

[Angelus Errare]

Maybe it's only me but not all the student loans were made by the government for loans that are crippling them. Secondly, I think a major problem is it will forgive some current debt only on severely delinquent loans like they did with the housing market. Which is all well and good but it doesn't solve the current problem of college prices being unreasonable and is just temporarily kicking the can so it's a bigger burden and blow up later on. It doesn't solve anything.

I don't think they're going to forgive loans at all but rather will ease up on the requirements for filing bankruptcy against them from damn near impossible to something more reasonable.

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

Are we? I mean I must be an idiot, I don't see major wage pressure.

We're at 4.7%, although not much wage pressure, how much lower can it possible fall?

I don't think they're going to forgive loans at all but rather will ease up on the requirements for filing bankruptcy against them from damn near impossible to something more reasonable.

But that, again, does nothing. Letting people dump when the next round is going to pay minimum 8%+ more per year than the previous class isn't sustainable. Like I said, it's at best kicking it down the road waiting for an even bigger explosion at the end.

 

[Maxim726X]

What do you expect him to do? No big spending bills are going to get passed in an election year.

How about... What do you expect any president to do, ever?

They don't control the private sector, and barely even control government jobs. The president is at the behest of the economic climate. Just ask Bill Clinton.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

The economy still has never recovered for your average middle class person from the recession despite the occasional good months and what pundits say. The economy is barely holding on and months like this yet again reveal it.

Disagree. Short-term issues have been mostly resolved. But longer-term issues haven't been fixed and I think Obama and his appointments will pay the political price for the decisions they made during the recovery.

 

[DrArchon]

I expect that this will get revised up somewhat, but the drop in the unemployment rate due to more people leaving the job market is the real disheartening news. Less jobs are being made and less people think they can get the jobs they want.

 

[giga]

Disagree. Short-term issues have been mostly resolved. But longer-term issues haven't been fixed and I think Obama and his appointments will pay the political price for the decisions they made during the recovery.

What decisions?

 

[LJ11]

We're at 4.7%, although not much wage pressure, how much lower can it possible fall?

What if participation is depressed? One number doesn't tell the whole story. As we get closer to FE you should see wage pressure.

 

[Rabbi_Vole]

The current unemployment rate is 4.7% and it dropped .3% this month from 5.0%. I believe this is pretty much around the level people call "full employment" so it's not really expected to have a lot of room to move down.

However, someone is certain to point out that this number isn't the "real" number because it doesn't include people who aren't looking for work. The unemployment rate is the U3 which only counts people looking for work who can't find it. The U6 is a more broad member that includes those who aren't, or have given up on, looking for work.

The U6 is as 9.7%, showing no change from last month.

The U6 was ignored in 2012. I don't expect 2016 to be any different.

 

[Angelus Errare]

But that, again, does nothing. Letting people dump when the next round is going to pay minimum 8%+ more per year than the previous class isn't sustainable. Like I said, it's at best kicking it down the road waiting for an even bigger explosion at the end.

Oh I agree, but you know how America loves the whole "suffering builds character" mentality