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[Fuzzy]

1/4 of all US households will own a HDTV set by the end of 2006. This number is supposed to double to 1/2 by the end of 2007.

But only half of HDTV owners in the US actually watched/received HD content.

 

[Vince]

From nVidia's latest financial conference call they make it pretty clear that production on the PS3 won't start until May at the earliest.
http://www.realmmedia.com/next_gen_...ence_call_confirms_playstation_3_is_late.html

First of all, nVidia didn't declare anything as fact; there are purposefully ambiguious, And, Actually, during the nVidia Goldman Sach's Webcast it was stated that the NRA's will continue due to Sony's additional design work (eg. additional designs) and that royalties are on a 1 month, post hoc basis. It's not quite as simple as that article wishes to present it.

 

[DCharlie]

To Speevy and the other guy: (a) I never stated that

regardless that i think we'll see the PS3 in Japan in spring, you can't call people idiots for having no justification , say something is afoot, claim you know as much, then not put your balls where your mouth is !

 

[Mrbob]

But only half of HDTV owners in the US actually watched/received HD content.

The set is in the homes. With Blu Ray/HD DVD, next gen consoles, and cable services starting to open up HD feed availability that number is going to climb substantially.

 

[wolywood]

While I realize that Sony has traditionally launched their hardware in Japan first, from a strictly business viewpoint (and assuming it is delayed until later in the year), wouldn't it make more sense to release the PS3 in the U.S. initially? They really can't afford to give Microsoft another uncontested holiday season here, and since Japan apparently doesn't give a rat's ass about 360, pushing the Japanese PS3 launch back a few months (say March 2007) wouldn't endanger their marketshare as much as missing this year's North American Christmas shopping season would. Of course, there's the Revolution factor as well....

 

[Vince]

regardless that i think we'll see the PS3 in Japan in spring, you can't call people idiots for having no justification , say something is afoot, claim you know as much, then not put your balls where your mouth is !

I can call them idiots for stating something as fact when not a single factual basis for their argument exists. I don't come to post something that's life-or-death, nor do I believe in this concept of only stating something if you're willing to bank on it 100%; It's pathetic it's come to that and leads to people not comunicating. See the Feb event and the timeline shifting that was legit and people reported what was legit; yet are chastised when plans change? Nah, screw that... I chose to state that; if you don't like it then don't pay attention.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

From nVidia's latest financial conference call they make it pretty clear that Sony's production on the PS3 won't start until May at the earliest.
http://www.realmmedia.com/next_gen_...ence_call_confirms_playstation_3_is_late.html

well that means ps3 could go on sale in may b/c the minute ps3 starts selling nvidia will get their royaltes. best guess is that the ps3 will launch in late may b/c kut man did say something about the eve of the launch or something. so its gotta be after e3

 

[Count Chocula]

That would make sense if it were really delayed until the end of the year.

If the PS3 were delayed because of Blu Ray standrds it shouldn't be until the end of the year. I predict at the very WORST. August Japan, November NA launch.

 

[DECK'ARD]

It's common-sense to think that as Sony's only announced timeline has slipped, that the launch date has slipped as well.

Things with PS2 didnt slip. Things with PS3 have. It's not in their interest to announce a delay when so much is riding on it, it would be bound to affect their shareprice heavily, but come their end of financial year I think shareholders will need an updated timeline.

Saying Spring gave them a big window, but if they were still confident of hitting it they'd be shouting it from the rooftops. Sony aren't shy when it comes to hype.

 

[kaching]

I can understand that the media is probably frustrated with the number NDAs Sony has everyone committed to at the moment concerning the PS3 but there's got to be a more constructive way to deal with it other than to simply regurgitate old news and try to paint it as new confirmation of anything at all.

 

[Vince]

well that means ps3 could go on sale in may b/c the minute ps3 starts selling nvidia will get their royaltes. best guess is that the ps3 will launch in late may b/c kut man did say something about the eve of the launch or something. so its gotta be after e3

No, nVidia collects royalties on the previous month's production. So, hypothetically, if RSX is poroduced in N amounts in May, nVidia's balance sheet reflects these N revenues as June's revenue.

 

[Striek]

I hope the PS3 doesn't come out until some good games have been announced for it.

Oh burn swish wow, kaaaaaaaboooooooooom!

Spoiler

Guess having the most announced games of any next-gen platform doesn't matter if they're all shit like MGS4, GT, DMC4, HS, Tekken, Motorstorm, Warhawk in addition to the dozens of other exclusives and all the multiplatform love (

While I realize that Sony has traditionally launched their hardware in Japan first, from a strictly business viewpoint (and assuming it is delayed until later in the year), wouldn't it make more sense to release the PS3 in the U.S. initially?

Would the PS3 impede the X360? Will the numbers the X360 pull off even be worth worrying about? Its on-track to do Xbox 2002-like numbers this year in the US (possibly a negligible amount more), all IMO of course. Its not going to achieve PS2 levels of success, thats for sure.

 

[DCharlie]

I can call them idiots for stating something as fact when not a single factual basis for their argument exists.

i agree - even though there are some signs out there, it's all prediction.

I don't come to post something that's life-or-death, nor do I believe in this concept of only stating something if you're willing to bank on it 100%;

It's pathetic it's come to that and leads to people not comunicating. See the Feb event and the timeline shifting that was legit and people reported what was legit; yet are chastised when plans change? Nah, screw that... I chose to state that; if you don't like it then don't pay attention.

now we've moved onto a totally different thing have we not?
but can you tell me - why was the Feb event timing changed ? (this is rhetorical)

 

[<nu>faust]

I'll one-up you; name me a single factual reason that exists to doubt Sony's stated timeline. Rumors, Non-Events and that feeling you claim to have which is really your bodies way of telling you to seek sunlight don't count......More realistically is that you're just like the idiots before last E3 which claimed nothing would happen

from gamespot article regarding possible ps3 delay

[ A Sony spokesperson is quoted as saying, "The highest quality picture is vital to the PS3. There is a possibility of delay [to the launch] if delivery of parts is delayed."

Also Enterbrain president Hiokazu quoted saying that if Sony hasn't started taking orders for the system by now, it would be difficult for the company to launch the PS3 in May.]

from palgn article

[A Sony spokesperson stated, “We’re aiming for a Spring release, but the launch could be pushed back if the final specifications are not decided soon.”

KBC Securities’ analyst Hiroshi Kamide exclaims, “No-one is seriously thinking that a Spring release is realistic any more”, SCEE executive turned analyst Nick Parker stating, 'I would guess that it will be Q3 in Japan, Q4 in the US and Q1 ’07 for us in Europe. I’m surprised that they’re still claiming it will be Spring'. Aren't we all?]

so you telling me just all the ppl are idiots for doubting sony even if sony offcials admits that there might be a possibility of a delay?

 

[DCharlie]

nor do I believe in this concept of only stating something if you're willing to bank on it 100%;

but you are calling people idiots if they do that ? or am i missing something?

 

[Beer Monkey]

nor do I believe in this concept of only stating something if you're willing to bank on it 100%

You realize, of course, that this makes you a chickenshit?

The strange thing is that I can't figure out why the hell anybody cares so much whether it ships in Spring or Fall in Japan. The most important thing is how many can they make this year, not the date of release. I mean, I guess if I were some insane fanboy who cares more about Sony saving face than I did about gaming....then I might care. Me, I really don't. I'll be buying one whenever it comes out.

 

[Fafalada]

Sony aren't shy when it comes to hype.

No, but on the other hand just keeping quiet has worked to create a seemingly non-stop flow of buzz from media eager to make news out of no info just cuz they have nothing better to do after 360 failed to set the world on fire.

At any rate, if PSP is any indication (it was a stupidly rushed launch too, hw wise PS3 is far better off), we knew the official launch date what - 3 months before it happened. I leave it to rumour mongers to speculate if Sony could conceivably cut it closer then that to meet the Spring date.

 

[VictimOfGrief]

A Spring launch is just as certain as Brokeback Mountain winning the Oscar tonight.

I see what you did there.

 

[gofreak]

If true, 360 has just received a huge bump.

You think extra time in Japan would help much?

We don't know how a delay would pan out, but assuming it hits in two territories this year, it won't make much difference. Particularly if it hits the US as early as some rumours suggest (Sept). That would actually give 360 less time alone in its strongest territory than I would have expected. But we'll see how it works out..

 

[VictimOfGrief]

You think extra time in Japan would help much?

Couldn't hurt...

We don't know how a delay would pan out, but assuming it hits in two territories this year, it won't make much difference. Particularly if it hits the US as early as some rumours suggest (Sept). That would actually give 360 less time alone in its strongest territory than I would have expected. But we'll see how it works out..

So you're saying Japan and N/A in 2006, EU in 2007?

Europe is going to hate Sony again if they do that.

 

[gofreak]

Couldn't hurt...



So you're saying Japan and N/A in 2006, EU in 2007?

Europe is going to hate Sony again if they do that.

I'm leaving a question mark over Europe, because I'd hesitate to guess If supply is OK I think they'll push for it in 06. That may well be a big 'if' though.

 

[ThirdEye]

It's common-sense to think that as Sony's only announced timeline has slipped, that the launch date has slipped as well.

Things with PS2 didnt slip. Things with PS3 have. It's not in their interest to announce a delay when so much is riding on it, it would be bound to affect their shareprice heavily, but come their end of financial year I think shareholders will need an updated timeline.

Saying Spring gave them a big window, but if they were still confident of hitting it they'd be shouting it from the rooftops. Sony aren't shy when it comes to hype.

WTF are you talking about? Didn't they reiterate Spring just recently?

 

[fse]

WTF are you talking about? Didn't they reiterate Spring just recently?

After their stock dipped... but I doubt it would release in "spring" whenever that may be.

 

[Il Comodino]

another speculation?

where are the word about the daley?

 

[mj1108]

I find it hard to believe that ANYONE here would be surprised that the system won't launch in the Spring. We all saw it coming a mile away.

 

[Il Comodino]

I have already understood, other week of speculations, where nobody knows, but all speak

 

[DCharlie]

I find it hard to believe that ANYONE here would be surprised that the system
won't launch in the Spring. We all saw it coming a mile away.

i don't know if i agree with seeing it coming a mile away to be honest, the first rumblings that made people think there might be a delay were comments and questions in the dev community about the dev kits and the late final kit roll out.

 

[Chittagong]

I'll one-up you; name me a single factual reason that exists to doubt Sony's stated timeline. Rumors, Non-Events and that feeling you claim to have which is really your bodies way of telling you to seek sunlight don't count.

FACT: Star number 1 delivered.
FACT: Star number 2 underdelivered - no playable devices
FACT: Star number 3 delayed
FACT: Star number 4 delayed / canceled

Now, would these factual reasons make anyone doubt Star number 5?

 

[cvxfreak]

FACT: Star number 1 delivered.
FACT: Star number 2 underdelivered - no playable devices
FACT: Star number 3 delayed
FACT: Star number 4 delayed / canceled

Now, would these factual reasons make anyone doubt Star number 5?

 

[xaosslug]

FACT: Star number 1 delivered.
FACT: Star number 2 underdelivered - no playable devices
FACT: Star number 3 delayed
FACT: Star number 4 delayed / canceled

Now, would these factual reasons make anyone doubt Star number 5?

:lol you're not being serious, right...?

 

[Il Comodino]

FACT: Star number 1 delivered.
FACT: Star number 2 underdelivered - no playable devices
FACT: Star number 3 delayed
FACT: Star number 4 delayed / canceled

Now, would these factual reasons make anyone doubt Star number 5?

perhaps I am badly informed, but of those stars the only one that have not been realized is the quarter.

Star number 1 ok
Star number 2 ok (where is written playable device?)
Star number 3 ok
Star number 4 no (ok disappear )

 

[thorns]

Seriously, why are you trying to argue with Vince? :lol :lol

 

[gofreak]

i don't know if i agree with seeing it coming a mile away to be honest, the first rumblings that made people think there might be a delay were comments and questions in the dev community about the dev kits and the late final kit roll out.

True, but it's been 3 months since then We've been hearing plenty about a potential delay for a while now, so continuing suggestion of it is probably going to be greeted with such "didn't we all know this already?" types of responses.

 

[Nick Laslett]

If you watch the documentary about editing on the LOTR:Return of the King extended edition.

You will see that Peter Jackson redefined the delivery date for when a film needs to be completed.

I think they finalised the editing of the film about 1 week before the global premier. (Something like that anyway.) They achieved this by locking down the film reel by reel and producing prints of just the material that was finalised. Rather than have the film complete and locked down 2 months before so the prints could be struck in one go.

This has no relevance to the PS3, but it did redefine my perception of how late things could be finalised. I bet the New Line execs nearly had kittens with 3000 prints need for US opening date just days later.

 

[Servizio]

You know what's nice? Release dates.

 

[gofreak]

Semi-related to discussion had earlier, but Next-Gen cites "patience" amongst European retailers on the prospect of a 07 launch there:

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2408&Itemid=2

"PlayStation 3 will break all records whenever it launches," said Martyn Gibbs. Commercial director at Gamestation. "We will be ready whenever Sony brings the machine to market."

HMV's head of games Tom Ellis told European trade paper MCV, "A later release gives 360 a better head start than Sony would want. But with PS2's massive installed base I doubt a delay would significantly undermine what PS3 will look to create."

Eplay's Ajay Kejriwal added, "Sony should release PS3 when it is ready and in a time frame that works for manufacturing. If that is March '07 them so be it."

Maybe they should ask gamers how they feel But I guess these retailers must be reasonably happy with psp/ps2 sales for now.

 

[Mmmkay]

HDDVD and Blu Ray will be nice, for the ~10% that own HDTV's that are HDCP compliant.

Well maybe if you're buying Warner or Universal movies, since they're the only ones who haven't committed to not using the ICT flag. All other movies will support full resolution video over analog and non-HDCP compliant digital routes.

 

[D3VI0US]

I never believed PS3 was gonna make Spring anywhere and I never believed that the Spring date was ever intended for the US. Still the reason why the delay comment has validity is cause everyone has bought into it at this point, from gamers, press, pubs, devs, and in some case the ill informed at Sony itself. So while it isn't official there is enough doubt out there to make us question Sony be it factual or not. Until we get something factual we can't really assume either way cause Spring is pretty fucking ambigious to begin with. So while people like Vince may believe Sony because that's the only official statement out there, I'd like to point to Chittagong's post cause it sums up my faith in Sony to deliver. Those too were official statements from the company where they under delivered. Seriously though where's the sense in drawing conclusions solely based on what a company that's trying to protect it's own interests and marketshare says from solely their "factual" statement? I mean that's like believing everything Scott McClellan (sp) says, after all he's the official source right? Sure something is afoot, Sony is just sitting around with their thumb up their ass, but with NDA's and all that jazz we won't know until Sony wants us to know. Still with every day that goes by Spring gets one day closer to ending, and that's one more day that affirms my belief that we won't see PS3 in Spring anywhere.

 

[Gattsu25]

Seriously, why are you trying to argue with Vince? :lol :lol

Why does anyone even argue at GAF? For entertainment...either for those paticipating in the debate or for outside readers, such as I

 

[PjotrStroganov]

Well maybe if you're buying Warner or Universal movies, since they're the only ones who haven't committed to not using the ICT flag. All other movies will support full resolution video over analog and non-HDCP compliant digital routes.

Doesn't make it less worse. Warner and Universal are a big part of the industry.

 

[Mmmkay]

Doesn't make it less worse. Warner and Universal are a big part of the industry.

It means that the majority of the industry have been on the record as saying they're not implementing ICT. Warner and Universal have yet to commit, but that doesn't mean they will be using it 100%, and it will be clearly labelled on the box if used.

The original comment was of the belief that all titles will use ICT, just correcting that.

 

[DenogginizerOS]

Other than Sony Pictures, NO movie studio has made a final decision about which format to support. This format war is only going to delay my watching high-definition movies. As far as I am concerned, I could care less who wins as long as the decision comes soon.

Sadly, without confirmation from Sony, "PS3 delayed until later in 2006" is still just a chafing rumor.

 

[Guileless]

Nobody at Sony is going to publicly confirm it because, as someone already said, it would hurt share prices and encourage 360 sales. That doesn't mean it isn't happening. All of these non-sourced statements about delay come from somewhere--some of them are from Sony people speaking off the record, or other analysts who talk to Sony people off the record.

Variety is an entertainment publication, and I would bet a fair amount of money that this reporter has no idea about how console launches generally work--start in Japan, then come to the other markets later. You can't read too much into it, but the most likely thing is that somebody at Sony told him about the delay off the record so he couldn't attribute a direct quote to anyone.

 

[kaching]

The strange thing is that I can't figure out why the hell anybody cares so much whether it ships in Spring or Fall in Japan. The most important thing is how many can they make this year, not the date of release. I mean, I guess if I were some insane fanboy who cares more about Sony saving face than I did about gaming....then I might care. Me, I really don't. I'll be buying one whenever it comes out.

Nice speech, but I call shenanigans. You're one of the most regular participants in these PS3 launch speculation threads, regularly challenging people to put up or shut up when their claims are contrary to yours and of course happy to point out when there seems to be evidence supporting your prediction (such as you did earlier in this thread). I can't figure out why the hell somebody who claims not to know why the hell anyone would care when the PS3 ships, would spend so much time in related threads challenging the participants and placing his own bet about when the PS3 will ship.

And I'll go on record (since I'd be "chickenshit" otherwise) as saying that I fully expect you to find some reason at the "last minute" to either not buy or holdoff on buying a PS3 whenever it comes out.

No, but on the other hand just keeping quiet has worked to create a seemingly non-stop flow of buzz from media eager to make news out of no info just cuz they have nothing better to do after 360 failed to set the world on fire.

I think this really is the crux of the issue for the media - the immediate buzz of the 360 launch has passed what with MS Xbox execs like Allard and Moore not giving out interviews and soudbites as regularly as they were a couple of months ago and we still have 2 of 3 next gen systems still wrapped heavily in secrecy, forestalling a real torrent of info to keep the news outlets more occupied.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Nice speech, but I call shenanigans. You're one of the most regular participants in these PS3 launch speculation threads, regularly challenging people to put up or shut up when their claims are contrary to yours and of course happy to point out when there seems to be evidence supporting your prediction (such as you did earlier in this thread). I can't figure out why the hell somebody who claims not to know why the hell anyone would care when the PS3 ships, would spend so much time in related threads challenging the participants and placing his own bet about when the PS3 will ship.

Because it's fun to point out hypocrisy, and GAF has no major shortage of it. I never challenge anybody who makes predictions and admits that they could be wrong. I only go after the moron chickenshits who make statements of 'fact' and refuse to back them up. I've also admitted more than once that I could be wrong about Sony missing the spring launch and that it is just a prediction. You know who refuses to allow doubt for that which has not manifested itself? Religious zealots, that's who.

And I'll go on record (since I'd be "chickenshit" otherwise) as saying that I fully expect you to find some reason at the "last minute" to either not buy or holdoff on buying a PS3 whenever it comes out.

Well, then you don't have a goddamn clue. I run a multiplatform gaming site, participate in a multiplatform podcast, and I'm a huge gaming and home theater buff with 30 consoles and two arcade machines in my house, and I haven't missed a launch in over a decade (incluiding PSX, PS2, and PSP). Go back to your distorted fanboy world where you think everybody else is a fanboy.

 

[soundwave05]

While I realize that Sony has traditionally launched their hardware in Japan first, from a strictly business viewpoint (and assuming it is delayed until later in the year), wouldn't it make more sense to release the PS3 in the U.S. initially? They really can't afford to give Microsoft another uncontested holiday season here, and since Japan apparently doesn't give a rat's ass about 360, pushing the Japanese PS3 launch back a few months (say March 2007) wouldn't endanger their marketshare as much as missing this year's North American Christmas shopping season would. Of course, there's the Revolution factor as well....

I agree 100% and I think the thinking internally in Sony has to be now hedging towards this ...

Launch in the US first. I would even consider launching in Europe ahead of Japan.

The question really isn't when is the PS3 launching. It will launch this year. Whether that's September or October or November is just academic at this point.

The bigger question is how many can Sony mass produce this year? If they can get 1.5 million-2 million into North America for the year, that would be a solid start for them.

 

[monkeymagic]

More realistic is that they make a million or two and lots of people get a 360 because the PS3 is impossible to buy.

Why would you buy an X360 when you're looking to buy a Playstation?

 

[Beer Monkey]

Why would you buy an X360 when you're looking to buy a Playstation?

Because it plays Madden and looks pretty, is available and at a reasonable price. People do it all the time. Tons of people just want a new Madden machine every few years and they aren't as brand loyal as messageboard fanbots.

You know how some people always buy a Honda, all the time, and never get anything else? Do you know there are also tons of people who liked Hondas for years but one year decided to get a Mazda or Toyota because it was the right car at the right time? But the zealots, they never get it, they never understand that everybody isn't exactly like them.

 

[Vince]

FACT: Star number 1 delivered.
FACT: Star number 2 underdelivered - no playable devices
FACT: Star number 3 delayed
FACT: Star number 4 delayed / canceled

Now, would these factual reasons make anyone doubt Star number 5?

Now if you would have read what I initially stated (and you oddly quoted but didn't follow), I asked what factual evidence exists that would mandate the PlayStation3 being delayed. The non-showing or non-event of a "planned" Conference doesn't count as it has absolutely no certain casual relationship to a reason for a delay.

The difference is that you can't point for a single tangible, physical reason the PlayStation3 can't launch when they stated. You can't say Cell or RSX isn't capable of prodution when the former is in production and the latter is completed. The point is that valid arguments, OTOH, can be made for reasons to not demonstrate the PS3 as initially planned; eg. If X360 isn't a threat and PlayStation2 and PSP are both extremely lucrative (see last fiscal quarter results), would a PlayStation3 showing invoke the Osborne Effect?

The only points on your little "Fact" sheet of shit that actually matter is point's [1] & [3], both of which were basically met.

 

[Sunski]

Seeing as spring is over in 2 months time (well in the UK anyway), I can't see why anyone is expecting the PS3 so soon. We have no launch line up, pricing, online specs, or other information.