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[rastex]

i dont argue with any of those points, but there's something inherently human in the desire to own something tangible. all this media can't be floating around in air, transmitted via wi-max, stored on hard disks and not help but give us an "empty" feeling. people like to own things, hold things, read the packaging. i dont think physical media will go away. and while it's convenient to download games and music, years down the road you'll want to browse your library and dust off that oldie but goodie. even if you have to dig for it in a box in your basement, I'd rather do that than peruse a bunch of burnt dvds and shit.

There will always be luddites sure, but the way of the mainstream is always convenience convenience convenience. I only need to point to the massively widespread adoption of mp3s to prove that. Hell, even DVDs prove that point as well. For every person that wants to hold that disc there is one that doesn't want that disc cluttering up their small room, and there's 100 that want extra convenience of having instant access to thousands of movies from the comfort of their home. Video Over IP is the next big thing, and the telcos know it and are investing massive amounts of money into the infrastructure to make it happen. Next-gen disc formats are already a relic of a dying "physical" age.

edit: and if you want to mention the sheer number of players, just because the functionality exists doesn't mean people are going to use it. Just look at PSP and the UMD for a very clear example of this. Hell, with all the negative press that the next-gen formats are getting in regards to the format war, etc etc, BR could actually be a NEGATIVE point in the minds of consumers. "Why should I have to pay for something I don't want?"

 

[WalkMan]

There will always be luddites sure, but the way of the mainstream is always convenience convenience convenience. I only need to point to the massively widespread adoption of mp3s to prove that. Hell, even DVDs prove that point as well. For every person that wants to hold that disc there is one that doesn't want that disc cluttering up their small room, and there's 100 that want extra convenience of having instant access to thousands of movies from the comfort of their home. Video Over IP is the next big thing, and the telcos know it and are investing massive amounts of money into the infrastructure to make it happen. Next-gen disc formats are already a relic of a dying "physical" age.

edit: and if you want to mention the sheer number of players, just because the functionality exists doesn't mean people are going to use it. Just look at PSP and the UMD for a very clear example of this. Hell, with all the negative press that the next-gen formats are getting in regards to the format war, etc etc, BR could actually be a NEGATIVE point in the minds of consumers. "Why should I have to pay for something I don't want?"

You pay for BR because the games are on BR.

 

[rastex]

You pay for BR because the games are on BR.

Tell that to Joe consumer. They'll see PS3 and 360 games that accomplish all the same thing and see no need for BR. Now, if PS3 launches at $400, well then this is all moot, and get in line now. If it's $500 (and unlikely above) you'll be definitely hearing this complaint. Not from the hardcore early adopters, but next holidays when there's still a $100 price differential between the main competitors and OnDemand services are starting to hit their stride...

 

[Barry Lightning]

but next holidays when there's still a $100 price differential between the main competitors and OnDemand services are starting to hit their stride...

yea, but, last i checked not everyone in the world had cable television?

and for those that do, there are significant costs associated with it: such as monthly bills which are not known to be shy of $100. That's $1200 / year - or the cost of a ps3, 360 and a spare hd-dvd drive together.

sayin tho...

 

[Mrbob]

What is funny about all these system wars battles, is outside of employees of Sony, Nintendo, and MS very few people actually care. Casual gamers, the market we are currently discussing, care the least. Who knows, perhaps even the Wii controller could provide that spark and Sony/MS get OWNZ000000000000000000000000RD by the little controller that could.

 

[ant1532]

these fools dont know shit:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2118&Itemid=2
:lol

 

[squicken]

I know in the long run that Blu-ray is good for publishers and developers, but what about in the launch window time frame? Just the limited availability of hardware will hinder game sales, but won't the addition of people buying launch units with no intention of ever playing games make the problem worse for publishers? Are publisher going to push back games b/c they look at the market and realize not all PS3 owners are gamers?

I've heard theories that the reason MS crippled the Media Center functionality (to be augmented at a later date) and made the DVD playback (which they can revise in later additions or as an add-on) so crappy is that they didn't want home theater geeks taking units away from software buying gamers, especially since they'd be losing money on the initial hardware.

 

[sonycowboy]

these fools dont know shit:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2118&Itemid=2
:lol

Many reports are still coming out saying that PSP will outsell the DS in the west. Nothing new there. In Japan, it's getting it's ass kicked three ways from Sunday, but in the west, the game is still afoot.

I expect the DS to come forward and take the lead, but it hasn't happened yet. But with the lineup coming, I'd give the DS the edge.

FYI,

This report is friggen huge. 144 pages.

It's got the good and bad scenario's:

DISASTER #1—CHERNOBYL: HOW THE PS3 CAN BECOME RADIOACTIVE
If Blu-Ray loses the High Def Battle, Sony will never catch the 360.

DISASTER #2—THE TITANIC: HOW THE XBOX 360 COULD BE SUNK
If Blu-Ray wins they will have a huge boon and Sony online is competant (even if it doesn't beat Xbox Live), the 360 will no longer have the power and online lead they had last generation. Sony also still has the lead in 1st and 3rd party titles. Sony could likely sell 2x the Xbox head to head.

DISASTER #3—THE HINDENBURG: HOW THE WII COULD BE DEFLATED
Likely to do well, but Nintendo's plans could be deflated if consumers reject the Wii as "old technology" and the well known 3rd party franchises are not released.

DISASTER #4—CHALLENGER: HOW DEVELOPMENT COSTS COULD EXPLODE PUBLISHER PROFITS

DISASTER #5—HEAVEN’S GATE: HOW THE NEXT CYCLE COULD BOMB

DISASTER #6—THE SAN FRANCISCO EARTHQUAKE: HOW ONLINE GAMING COULD SHAKE THE WORLD

DISASTER #7—TSUNAMI: HOW MICROTRANSACTIONS/ADVERTISING
CAN CHANGE THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

DISASTER #8—HURRICANE KATRINA: HOW DIGITAL DOWNLOADS COULD BREAK DOWN RETAIL WALLS

DISASTER #9—THE GREAT STOCK MARKET CRASH: HOW INTERNATIONALIZATION AND GLOBAL ONLINE GAMING COULD DESTROY THE U.S. PUBLISHERS

POST SCRIPT—LESSONS NOT LEARNED FROM THE LAST CONSOLE CYCLE, AND WHAT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME

The report also has sales estimates for US, Europe, & WW through 2010, genre sales breakdowns, software production cost estimates, and a number of other industry metrics.

 

[Mrbob]

The report also has sales estimates for US, Europe, & WW through 2010, genre sales breakdowns, software production cost estimates, and a number of other industry metrics.

Post them here for us.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

So a two year console lead to MS. I hope so.

I can see at some point in the future that MS and Sony become console partners which would make a lot of sense for both camps.

I guess I wouldn't be too mad if they agreed upon 6-7 year console life cycles.

 

[Count Chocula]

There will always be luddites sure, but the way of the mainstream is always convenience convenience convenience. I only need to point to the massively widespread adoption of mp3s to prove that. Hell, even DVDs prove that point as well. For every person that wants to hold that disc there is one that doesn't want that disc cluttering up their small room, and there's 100 that want extra convenience of having instant access to thousands of movies from the comfort of their home. Video Over IP is the next big thing, and the telcos know it and are investing massive amounts of money into the infrastructure to make it happen. Next-gen disc formats are already a relic of a dying "physical" age.

edit: and if you want to mention the sheer number of players, just because the functionality exists doesn't mean people are going to use it. Just look at PSP and the UMD for a very clear example of this. Hell, with all the negative press that the next-gen formats are getting in regards to the format war, etc etc, BR could actually be a NEGATIVE point in the minds of consumers. "Why should I have to pay for something I don't want?"

as convenient as it is to download music nowadays. I still find it easier to go to the store and pick up the CD. Call me old fashioned but I've had too many bad experiences with harddrive reformats and losing everything to rely totally on digital distribution.
And what happens if I like the movie so much I want to loan it to a friend. Do go to their house and ask them to order it themselves? Or do you just carry your terabyte media server around with you where ever you go?

 

[soundwave05]

I think a movie "online" service will happen eventually, but it'll take years before it has the broad support from the movie studios and a person can order any movie they want and be watching it in high-definition within minutes (or even seconds).

A service where you have to sit and wait for a movie to download will never fly IMO. Consumers won't accept it. Unless you live in the middle of nowhere, chances are you have a Best Buy or Blockbuster within 20-25 minutes of you (or less).

For the time being, Blu-Ray is the best option ... you can get one inside a PS3 for a highly subsidized cost, so there isn't as much risk to the consumer. A PS3 is something they would want anyway, Blu-Ray is just a bonus and it gives them the ability to watch movies if high-def if they so choose ... which will become more important as the HD install base booms by millions in the next 2-3 years.