Big Shirtless Ron
Member
keep your fingers crossed, littlewig!littlewig said:
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(Wedbush) US Fall 2006? (Q4) 2.5M 360, 2M PS3, 1.5M Wii
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
AdmiralViscen
Banned
Mrbob said:Hey you are jumping onto *my* prediction bandwagon now, get your own ideas.This is why I think MS needs to slash the price of the 360 by 100 dollars this November. Pump out as many sales as you can to counter attack the PS3 onslaught.
If the Premium pack was $300 this fall I'd buy it right alongisde the Wii, even though I probably couldn't afford games for both of them.
Make it happen, Mrbob.
I'm still a little confused about the Wii, I remember going into E3, all i heard was how Nintendo was going to undercut MS and Sony by selling the Wii for $99 or at the absolute most $149. And from what i understand one of the main reasons for that price speculation was from comments made by developers that were making games for the Wii. Iirc, developers were praisng Nintendo for taking a different route than MS and Sony, and after seeing or being notified of the actual tech being used in the Wii, some thought that Nintendo might even be able to sell it for under $100.
In fact, the only resistance to those prices, i remember, were coming from some Nintendo fans and not becuase they thought that the tech used in the Wii couldn't be sold for the prices listed above but because they thought that such a low price would give the Wii too much of a "cheap" image. They reasoned that Nintendo would inflate the price. Maybe even selling it for as muchas $199.
Now i'm hearing all this talk about $250 and it puzzles the hell out of me. When did this price even begin to be taken seriously. None of the tech of the Wii has changed. It is still more or less a Gamecube and a controller peripheral. Can anyone point to a thread when the idea of a $250 Revolution began to be taken seriously. Maybe it's Nintendo's, Apple like marketing they've begun that has had this effect. Regardless, you have to admire Nintendo for pulling something like this off.
In fact, the only resistance to those prices, i remember, were coming from some Nintendo fans and not becuase they thought that the tech used in the Wii couldn't be sold for the prices listed above but because they thought that such a low price would give the Wii too much of a "cheap" image. They reasoned that Nintendo would inflate the price. Maybe even selling it for as muchas $199.
Now i'm hearing all this talk about $250 and it puzzles the hell out of me. When did this price even begin to be taken seriously. None of the tech of the Wii has changed. It is still more or less a Gamecube and a controller peripheral. Can anyone point to a thread when the idea of a $250 Revolution began to be taken seriously. Maybe it's Nintendo's, Apple like marketing they've begun that has had this effect. Regardless, you have to admire Nintendo for pulling something like this off.
Frankfurter
Member
Well, neither the upper limit ($250) nor the lower limit ($100) are from a source which we should trust. It's just analysts, developers etc. which most likely have no clue what the final price will be, but slash in sth. like 'I think that it will be sold for $149'.
Concerning the tech in the Wii: yeah, basically it seems to be Gamecube 1.5, but than again it has Wiireless LAN built in, 512mb of flash memory and there is of course the controller which could cost significantly more to produce than other controllers.
Concerning the tech in the Wii: yeah, basically it seems to be Gamecube 1.5, but than again it has Wiireless LAN built in, 512mb of flash memory and there is of course the controller which could cost significantly more to produce than other controllers.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Always the same thing for analysts: X360 head to head with PS3 and Wii a distant third.
I have stopped trust analysts since then in 2002-2003 said always that Nintendo "would be sure become exactly like Sega: A Third Party Editor".
And the same with PSP-DS battle: "Oh, it is the end for Nintendo, PSP will SURE destroy it, Nintendo will fails 100% and there is no hope for Nintendo anymore".
Please, analysts, go to the hell. There are no rules in the audience.
I have stopped trust analysts since then in 2002-2003 said always that Nintendo "would be sure become exactly like Sega: A Third Party Editor".
And the same with PSP-DS battle: "Oh, it is the end for Nintendo, PSP will SURE destroy it, Nintendo will fails 100% and there is no hope for Nintendo anymore".
Please, analysts, go to the hell. There are no rules in the audience.
Any1 said:
Nintendo can charge a premium just for being Nintendo. How do you think they can compete with Sony with the DS and win in Japan?
The pricing issue you're referring to is tricky. The $149- $99 were red herring prices that may have oringally been idle speculation but was perpetuated by certain people/groups who wanted to create FUD for Wii and have people expect a low priced console only to be disappointed with a higher price point.
Most people in the industry don't actually believe in this price range. $149-$99 are introductory prices for Nintendo portables, a home console with the kind of features the Wii has will at least retail for $200. Why Nintendo never announced a price at E32006 is puzzling. I think they had a price in mind but Sony's $600 pricing made them reconsider. The question now is which direction they are leaning.
Will they feel less price pressure and lean towards $250 or will they stay the course and keep $200 (which I believe was going to be their original pricing for the Wii).
My educated guess here is that Nintendo is going to steal something from its competitors and that's the 2 SKU launch model with more SKU/bundles to come. There will be a core $200 Wii with 1 controller, a Wii and a demo disk, and there will be a $250 Wii bundle which I will call the Duck Hunt bundle. This is basically the one with the extra controlers and very likey the Wii game pad, and is targeted at the hard core.
I call it the Duck Hunt bundle because in NA, its very like they will include Duck Hunt or Wii Sports as a bundle game for the $250 pack and is a throwback to the gamers who grew up with the NES duckhunt bundle.
neondriver
Member
Huh? I didn't read through the whole topic, but...
Sony projects to ship 4 million till the end of the year worldwide.
And these guys think that the US will get 2 million, while europe and Japan only get 1 million each?
No way...
Sony projects to ship 4 million till the end of the year worldwide.
And these guys think that the US will get 2 million, while europe and Japan only get 1 million each?
No way...
Could it be that Nintendo didn't announce the price because they still have a hardware secret to reveal or a secret related to the Wii?
I mean if nothing major is going to be announced that sways the price as we all believe...then Nintendo would have no reason to not tell us the price...but if they are keeping something back...that makes the Wii worth $200-$250 for sure rather then what we all believe to be Nintendo trying to profit with a Game-Cube Turbo with peripherals and Wi-Fi...
I mean if nothing major is going to be announced that sways the price as we all believe...then Nintendo would have no reason to not tell us the price...but if they are keeping something back...that makes the Wii worth $200-$250 for sure rather then what we all believe to be Nintendo trying to profit with a Game-Cube Turbo with peripherals and Wi-Fi...
Gahiggidy
My aunt & uncle run a Mom & Pop store, "The Gamecube Hut", and sold 80k WiiU within minutes of opening.
I dunno... but the fact that thier official site describes the GPU as "being developed with ATi" has me suspicious that the final specs are in flux. IN comparison, they flat out say that the IBM chip is a "PowerPC CPU (code-named "Broadway") Made with a 90 nm SOI CMOS process, jointly developed with and manufactured by IBM."F#A#Oo said:Could it be that Nintendo didn't announce the price because they still have a hardware secret to reveal or a secret related to the Wii?
I mean if nothing major is going to be announced that sways the price as we all believe...then Nintendo would have no reason to not tell us the price...but if they are keeping something back...that makes the Wii worth $200-$250 for sure rather then what we all believe to be Nintendo trying to profit with a Game-Cube Turbo with peripherals and Wi-Fi...
F#A#Oo said:Could it be that Nintendo didn't announce the price because they still have a hardware secret to reveal or a secret related to the Wii?
I mean if nothing major is going to be announced that sways the price as we all believe...then Nintendo would have no reason to not tell us the price...but if they are keeping something back...that makes the Wii worth $200-$250 for sure rather then what we all believe to be Nintendo trying to profit with a Game-Cube Turbo with peripherals and Wi-Fi...
$200 isn't a lot of money in real terms today. If you think back in 1996 when the N64 launched in NA at $200 the dollar value was probably something like $260-$280 adjusted to today's dollars. And I'm assuming an average for 3% annual inflation over 10 years.
It's all speculation at this point, but you can make reasonable guesses. a $200 Wii with a controller, the base unit and perhaps 1 game to ease people into using the Wii Mote seems like a reasonable launch price. As for the power, there's lot of conflicting stories going around. Some say the E3 hardware was final, others say ATI is still working on it and the graphics chip is still not finalized and Nintendo is working on target specs only, even on Mario Galaxy.
Kangu said:
I don't think he was, but Matt was also not very happy with Nintendo's direction prior to E3. He certainly help perpetuate the 'cheap' pricing perception.
But you know I could be wrong. The core SKU could still come in at $150. I was simply stating my educated guesses where I think $200 is a more likely price. We'll know in a few months.
Gahiggidy said:
Hence my suspicion that the Wii price announcement was held off to rework Nintendo's SKU. And they don't neccessarily have to gouge consumers for the sake of gouging because Sony screwed themselves with a $600 price tag. It can be a win-win.
Since prices generally move in increments of $30 $50 and $100 a jump from $200 to $250 for example could still theoretically allow Nintendo to bundle in more stuff. They can still increase their profit per unit if the stuff they bundle in cost less that $50 to manufacture and package .
The $99 -$149 price for theWii was never going to happen. Anyone who thought that was just delusional and/or retarded.
I mean a PS2 with memory card still costs $150 (and that's only after a very recent price cut)...
..and Nintendo are supposed to be releasing a more powerful machine with an expensive wireless controller,with built-in wifi and 512mb built in memory for the same price or less? :lol
For less than the PSP...for the same price as or less than the DS?:lol
I mean a PS2 with memory card still costs $150 (and that's only after a very recent price cut)...
..and Nintendo are supposed to be releasing a more powerful machine with an expensive wireless controller,with built-in wifi and 512mb built in memory for the same price or less? :lol
For less than the PSP...for the same price as or less than the DS?:lol
Kangu said:
Quite possibly...at the very least he instigated it with his spec articles...he basically threw out figures for what he and which ever developer/s he spoke to thought it should be priced. As I said...speculation about price only really started biting when he started dropping figures.
He's no strange to campaings either...He threw his toys out of the pram when Nintendo announced no HD for the Wiii...and he campaigned for Nintendo to change their mind on HD...urging people to contact Nintendo and beg for HD...:lol
Deku said:
Matt is a borderline psychotic Nintendo fanatic, how does making people dissapointed with the price of the Wii help his cause at all? This whole theory makes absolutely no sense. People thought the Wii would be 99 dollars because A) The hardware is rubbish and B) No one was going to want to play with it's wacky controller (because it was so wacky)
Of course post E3 it seems that people do want to play with the Wii, although the hardware is still rubbish.
At 250 the Wii is priced as more expensive than the GC, yet the GC was considerably powerful when it launched and very much comparable to the X-Box.
Kangu said:
You should ask him. I didn't mentioned any names in my post. But clearly, people were expecting a $99 Wii? No one in retail or the industry believes this. But the myth is perpetuating itself to the point where random people would mention it as if its fact. I'm merely describing what I'm observing. It's not any more complicated than that.
Besides, why are you so hang up on price anyways? Could it be hangover from PS3? The range is pretty clear, its going to come below the 360, the question of how much they come below the 360 depends on various factors including how much Nintendo wants to bundle, what kind of SKU they want, and how their market research pan out on what consumers are willing to pay for it.
Frankfurter
Member
Kangu said:
Gamecube had Wiireless-LAN and flash memory built in. And of course the Wii controller. LOLAMIRITE?
Maximilian E.
AKA MS-Evangelist
Well..
as I have said before.. Sony plans on delivering 2 million by launch on all markets (NA, EU, JAP, Australasia)
So 2 million divided in 4 markets. Sony also hopes to deliver an additional 2 million during december.
I don´t see Sony selling 2 million units in the states during november/december. They will not have the units for it...
as I have said before.. Sony plans on delivering 2 million by launch on all markets (NA, EU, JAP, Australasia)
So 2 million divided in 4 markets. Sony also hopes to deliver an additional 2 million during december.
I don´t see Sony selling 2 million units in the states during november/december. They will not have the units for it...
sonycowboy
Member
Maximilian E. said:
Australia isn't a market. It's like 5% of the European market.
The current distribution of sales WW for the VG market is currently something like:
NA: 41%
Europe: 38%
Japan: 21%
With Europe gaining and Japan declining each year for the past 4 or 5 years.
Of course, the 360 decided to launch with this distribution:
900k/1,500k NA - 60%
500k/1,500k Europe - 33%
100k/1,500k Japan - 7%
so, you could say they screwed Europe as well, only it turned out to be the right thing as Europe didn't sell out like the US did.
fortified_concept
Banned
sonycowboy said:
Yes but Europe begs for PS3. On the other hand xbox was more popular in USA and way less popular in Europe.
sonycowboy
Member
fortified_concept said:
I haven't gotten any European numbers for awhile now, but I have heard that the 360 sales are still < 750k and that's after 5 1/2 months. Heck, the PSP sold 1M in Europe within 4 weeks I believe. I've gotta believe that Microsoft has a plan for Europe, but they've really got to get cracking or their year advantage will mean less and less.
Although, I haven't heard what's happened to sales since the PS3's price was announced.
Frankfurter
Member
sonycowboy said:
Slightly offtopic, but ... do you perhaps have more or less new numbers for DS and PSP (especially for PSP as we didn't get a number from Sony for Europe at the end of the year)? I know that you mentioned that it seems like PSP outsold DS in the first ~2 months of the year, but you never gave out numbers.
Maximilian E.
AKA MS-Evangelist
sonycowboy said:
For starters, this isn´t about the 360..
Secondly, the differnce between MS and Sony is that the biggest market for Xbox is NA. Sony is about equally good on all market, with NA having an edge over the rest. So for MS, it made sense to distribute it so that NA got the most. For Sony, they have to strike a balance between all markets.
KeithFranklin
Banned
At launch what percentage of PS3 will be the $500 and what percentage the $600 version. I predict it will be very hard to find the $500 version.
I also believe you will see far more fence sitters on the PS3 until just the game or games they want our released.
I also believe you will see far more fence sitters on the PS3 until just the game or games they want our released.
fortified_concept
Banned
sonycowboy said:
Wow just 750k? So 360 worldwide sales are less than 2.5 million? Don't worry about Europe and PS3. Price is normal for us. Imagine that I bought PS2 for 500$ and I couldn't even remember the price.
edit: It's actually appr. 518 euros and 50 euros for a memory card.
Kobun Heat
Member
I'll go tell the Nintendo PR rep that mentioned that possible price range to me at Tokyo Game Show that they're delusional and/or retarded.Taker666 said:
Many intelligent and/or knowledgeable people have floated those price points as very real possibilities. I personally think Nintendo doesn't have much to lose if they put it at $199, but $149 and even $99 are hardly the random delusions of insane fanboys.
Hitler Stole My Potato
Banned
ntb825 said:
Hell no.
Frankfurter said:
LMAO if you think wireless LAN and 512 MB of flash memory justify the rumored $250 price. As to the Wiimote, who knows, but I'd be willing to bet it's not that expensive, unless Nintendo expects people to pay 70 dollars for extra controllers.
Deku said:
Yes, that's it. You got me all figured out. I didn't even mention the price initially, I was just awestruck by your anti-Nintendo groups launch FUD campaign consipiracy theory. It's one thing to say that you 'see' a lot of people who think the Wii is worth $99 and it's quite another to claim that's a myth perpetuated by people who hate Nintendo and want to create consumer dissapointment when the real price is revealed.
Japan's market finally started seeing some growth in the first half of 2004... it's now rapidly growing thanks mainly to Nintendo though. Japan YTD hardware sales are more than comparable to the US so far and it's still by a wide margin the 2nd largest national game market, and that doesn't look to be changing anytime soon.sonycowboy said:
sugarhigh4242
Banned
Shalomi said:
By 2008, the price will have dropped considerably...
AdmiralViscen
Banned
sugarhigh4242 said:
I really doubt it will have dropped by more than $150.
Gahiggidy said:
For the GPU it says:
System LSI(Hollywood) 90nm DRAM consolidation CMOS process
< cooperation design > ATI
The controller fact sheet says:
Wireless connection by Bluetooth (short distance wireless communication)
The maximum, connected number: 4
Distance that can be played: 5m from television
- Pointer: Pointing function to indicate screen
- The motion sensor: The inclination and the change in movement are detected. (three axes)
- Power on/off switch of main body
- A, B, and cross button
- -(minus)?Home (home) and +(plus) button
- 1?Two buttons
- Vibration function
- Speaker
- The enhancing unit can be connected.
- Player indicator
Mrbob said:Hey you are jumping onto *my* prediction bandwagon now, get your own ideas.
This was always my feeling as well. Drop both prices by $100. Who would guess that the 360 could be cheaper than the Wii? Of course, they would need to make sure they can actually supply that many units which they seem to be struggling with so far. If they can't fill the channels for the holiday season, then a price cut is silly.
No bundles of course. MS would need all the accessory sales to offset the hit of the price drop and the low price 360 should generate tons of memory and HDD sales.
This will be the last "easy" chance for MS to really grab some marketshare. The advantages of their online strategy becomes much stronger as they improve their marketshare since people will want to get their friends online to play with them.
ToxicAdam said:
Analysts usually fall into the trap of projecting current trends into the future. Usually this favours incumbents and the 'no brainer' obvious choices.
I'm very skeptical of their sales projections unless they mention some sort of special insight into how they come up with their numbers. As witht he case with their PS3 projections, it didn't take very long for GAFFERs to find all sorts of problems with it.
I mean Sony is promising 4 M units worldwide by the end of the year, and Fall officially ends in late december. This would give the PS3 a little over than a month to sell 2.5 million units and that's assuming Sony allocates over 50% of their entire inventory to North America. It's crazy.
There's always the possibility they know something we don't or the timetable was wrong and they meant fiscal 2006 which will end in March 2006 with 6 million WW as Sony claims.