Pretty much like the current generation where Xbox hasn't been relevant.
Nah, they'll continue the one they already have:
- To continue expanding 1st party teams, making some new acquisitions to better approach new audiences (expanding to relevant new regions, game subgenres, age ranges, platforms not properly appealed right now by 1st party)
- To continue expanding off-PS games, making a push to grow on mobile after they completed the initial PC push
- To continue improving and growing their game sub, pretty likely expanding it to PC and mobile once they have enough presence there
- To continue improving their accesories side, pretty likely this time pretty likely making a PS Player next gen successor that runs games natively to start fighting Nintendo directly again
- To continue iterating hardware every generation, next gen making a special effort in RT and AI related improvements
- What does the rest of the PS5 generation look like and how long will it last?
I think that as top teller teams like Rockstar, Bungie, Naughty Dog start releasing their first current gen only games we'll see a bigger than usual influx of PS5 late adopters who migrate from PS4 to PS5 later than usual.
If the upcoming Sony handheld ends running PS5 games we'll see another important bump. Their partnerships with Chinese, Koreans, Indian teams are also going to help them to slowly continue growing in these countries.
One of the main reasons of why some people migrate from PS4 to PS5 so late is because they're still engaged there with GaaS and the gamesub. This gen GaaS and gamesub are even more successful, so I think players on average will migrate from PS5 to PS6 even later.
I assume games will stop being PS4/PS5 crossgen around the same time they'll start being crossgen PS5/PS6, and this time we literally we may see all PS6 gen being mandated to be PS5/PS6 crossgen.
AAA games take longer to be made every generation, so games that started to be developed as PS5 games will release very late in the generation.
Everything combined, I think PS5 will have the longest life of any PS console, lasting pretty likely until even beyond the PS7 release.
- How does Sony approach the PS6 without a direct competitor?
MS has been pretty irrelevant this and the previous generation, Sony kept doing their own strategy not caring a lot about what the competition was doing. Sony basically kept improving and growing all its areas, something they'll continue doing.
- How does this affect PS+ and their PC releases?
Won't affect them, they will continue growing both as usual, and like the rest of their areas.
- Does anyone else step up in the console space? If so, who and how?
I think it's a very complicated market, and at the same time very small for the giants who could afford the money to properly compete wouldn't want to spend the time and effort that would take to build a proper 1st party team good enough to compete (not just a money thing, MS spent almost $100B on acquisitions and didn't achieve it having 2 decades of experiene) and also to appeal all the 3rd parties to support them.
Whoever that new player is would already need to have an insanely big AAA/AA userbase and library. There's only two players with that: Steam (who tried and failed to become relevant with their 'consoles') and Tencent (who has their gaming business diversified across all platforms and wouldn't make sense to them to limit it to a single one, they would stop making most of their money).
I think there won't be a new high end console competitor. We'll see instead Sony, having conquered that market, later will go and start to compete more directly in the PC space against Steam and in the portable consoles against Nintendo, plus start a push to expand in mobile.
- Will there even be another console generation or will the industry look different by then?
PS and Nintendo are breaking record, of course they will releasing new generations of consoles. The industry will continue evolving as it evolved generation after generation and trends will continue:
- Full game sales will continue moving from physical to digital until eventually real physical sales eventually die (outside collector editions, digital codes in a box or card etc)
- Game revenue will continue migrating from full game sales to gamesubs and specially addons until it reaches a certain point where it will stop decreasing its percentage and keeps as a steady and solid small niche
- As gamedev costs continue to increase every generation, they'll need to be more multiplatform
- As consequence of this, we'll see digital storefronts evolving more multiplatform agnostic gaming ecosystems
- As consequence of these two things and also the convergence in hardware and game engines, PC, home consoles, portable consoles, mobile and cloud will continue converging
- VR and specially cloud will continue to slowly evolve and grow but will continue being a small niche portion of the market
- TVs never will have the horsepower needed to run high end games, and cloud gaming never (due to high speed internet coverage, not because of the cloud gaming tech) will cover a big enough portion of the world to be really mainstream. Many people will want to continue wanting to play with a gamepad on a big tv, not in the desktop with a PC or in a handheld or startphone. So there will be the need for home consoles. And will want to play non-touchscreen games with proper controls, so the need for portable consoles will continue too. Even if home and portable consoles evolve and end running PC and mobile games, or end having PC or mobile OS, they'll continue getting new generations and will continue having a PSN and Nintendo shop and games. Even if in the long term Nintendo may stop making their own devices and focus instead on becoming a multiplatform publisher and run their own hardware agnostic digital ecosystem like the ones Sony, MS, Valve and pretty likely Google, Amazon, Tencent and Apple will have before them.
And if "steamboxes" gain mainstream attraction, 3rd party publishers would certainly start supporting it more.
Steam machines (home console versions of the 'steamboxes') didn't work. Their portable version (Steamdeck and similar) are having a pretty weak start. I assume that with the help of the Xbox brand and library will have a small push, but nothing relevant.
AAA / AA devs will continue focusing on Steam and PSN as usual considering these consolized PCs just a small niche subsection within the PC market that won't be worth much specific attention or efforts.
I think this market of consolized PCs in both home console and portable console shape will slowly grow over time specially if they manage to bring down the pricing to make it more comparable to normal consoles (something difficult because these OEM manufacturers don't sell games, so they can't sell the hardware at a loss to subsidize it selling games and subs), but will continue being irrelevant minimum during a generation or two more compared to normal PS and Nintendo consoles or compared to desktop+laptop PCs.
The portable ones will also need to notably reduce their size and weight plus increase the battery duration time to become mainstream.
Still, I think they'll slowly grow. But I think Sony will continue dominant and growing their market share. Not only as the only real player of home consoles, but also will start growing in PC and portable consoles market, and years later in mobile.