It's odd (though hardly suprising) to see people praising this post, because it perfectly embodies the exact mentality - starting from a predetermined conclusion about Nintendo's future and working backwards, facts and logic be damned - that it attempts to criticize.
I mean, putting the word "statistical" in scare quotes and dismissing the notion that historical market performance of Nintendo platforms has any bearing on NX? Asserting that Nintendo has solved all its cultural and structural weaknesses without offering a single piece of evidence to support it? I could go on, but it's not really worth it.
As I mentioned in my original post, it's actually pretty difficult to have this conversation, because we're talking past each other here -- i.e., in spite of the fact that you've replied to me,
we're not having the same conversation.
I don't disagree that, in the absence of other information, it's easier to predict a company's future performance by taking its past performance into account. However, it's not an
indicator of future performance -- because that would imply that the more one succeeds, the more one will continue to succeed in the future. As anyone can agree, there are no console makers for which this is true.
Anyway, Nintendo's past performance is
not the only information we have available to us, so to base a prediction on its historically declining hardware sales alone is to misrepresent the situation as it exists today. Nintendo launched an unprecedented era of transparency in 2004, outlining (before the hardware was even released) very specific development philosophies that led to the shocking success of the DS and the Wii.
When you look at the following monumental flop of the Wii U, you can trace its certain doom backward -- not to the declining sales of the SNES, N64, and GameCube, but backward to
Nintendo's own statements about the Wii U leading up to (and including) its E3 reveal. Its failure was telegraphed ahead of time because Nintendo was publicly stating its intention to abandon everything that had made the Wii successful.
Lastly, I'm not sure where you got the idea that I was claiming all of Nintendo's weaknesses are solved. We don't actually know a danged thing about the NX, and we won't know whether Nintendo truly understands its Gen 7 and 8 consoles until they give us more information about Gen 9. But there is reason to be optimistic when you take into account that (1) Nintendo has returned to the old conversation about not competing in the red ocean, and (2) games like Splatoon and Zelda BotW have demonstrated that Nintendo realizes a change in direction is necessary to achieve an expansion beyond the audience they have now. (Miyamoto's hint last week about the future of Mario should be included in this.)