Do we have any idea how many they are shipping each month? I don't mean last year, because they built up stock, I mean now. What is their steady state delivery rate for the hardware? PS4 on average sold 1.3 million units per month over its first 7 years. Can they deliver PS5s at that rate now? Either way it is lower than the ~ 2.5 million per month last year that included a launch build up. I found a sales forcast that predicts 17 million sold by the end of 2021. That is close enough to 1 million per month this year, on top of the 4.5 million last year. If PS4 sold well over 110m units, how many PS4 owners want a PS5 now or this year? Is it more than 15%? If so, shortages will last through the year. I think there is that much demand and scarcity is making it higher.
For consoles there tends to be a lot that want them ASAP and then many who will snap them up when available but don't go out of their way to find one, the third group are people that need a more compelling reason to buy one and do so later in the life cycle. The first group has not had their demand satisfied yet and the second group will keep them out of stock intermittently for a while after the first group gets their systems. The hype and lack of supply will likely increase the size of the second group by converting some in the 3rd group with the scarcity draw. In order for the systems to be plentiful this year, they would have to do so by September because October brings big new titles and that leads into the Holiday season. I don't see that happening.
Scalping is another factor. People seem to think it is easy to scalp, but it really isn't and not many sell on ebay compared to the total sold. Still people buy them to try to make a quick buck so there will be a lot of listings and some will sell. But many will start to have problems selling them for a profit on ebay with their 13% cut. I am not sure when this will occur, but in the past I was able to score a Wii and 360 for nearly retail by wining some auctions, and in one case, forcing the scalper to honor the deal by escalating through ebay. Regardless, up to 10-20% of units shipped will be caught up in ebay in the US until people stop paying for the convenience of being able to buy one with a few stress free clicks.
Q1/Q2 2022 at the earliest.