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Why a PS3 price drop is more likely than you might think

OldJadedGamer said:
An interview with Sony Computer Entertainment America chief Jack Tretton in the latest issue of Game Informer revealed some troubling news for consumers waiting for a lower-priced PlayStation 3. When asked point blank whether price drops for the PS3 will be "as soon or as drastic as they were for the PlayStation 2," Tretton responded with a curt, "No."

i wouldn't be quick to put stock in that, however. what was the guy supposed to say? yes? you don't give people a reason to hold out.
 
OldJadedGamer said:
An interview with Sony Computer Entertainment America chief Jack Tretton in the latest issue of Game Informer revealed some troubling news for consumers waiting for a lower-priced PlayStation 3. When asked point blank whether price drops for the PS3 will be "as soon or as drastic as they were for the PlayStation 2," Tretton responded with a curt, "No."


Which pretty much kills these price cut rumors. They can't bloody afford it. Worst catch-22 for them ever.
 
Manmademan said:
visit the OT forums sometime. Blu-Ray is thoroughly trashing HD-DVD, starting when the PS3 launched and it hasn't let up since.

including Blu-Ray in the PS3 has done exactly what Sony wanted it to do.

K but is that enough to make it worth it?

If there are 10 Blu Ray discs sold a month and 3 HD-DVDs, it's still not a success;)
 
OldJadedGamer said:
An interview with Sony Computer Entertainment America chief Jack Tretton in the latest issue of Game Informer revealed some troubling news for consumers waiting for a lower-priced PlayStation 3. When asked point blank whether price drops for the PS3 will be "as soon or as drastic as they were for the PlayStation 2," Tretton responded with a curt, "No."

This quote makes no sense. The Ps2 took around 2 years to drop, and even then it was only 50 dollars. It was neither "soon" nor "drastic."

Also: no one in their right mind is going to say anything about a price drop unless the drop is happening in less than 24 hours. It would cannibalize sales. If a price drop were coming next WEEK Tretton would still say "no."

K but is that enough to make it worth it?

If there are 10 Blu Ray discs sold a month and 3 HD-DVDs, it's still not a success;)

Blu-ray (and possibly HD-DVD) are outselling DVD at this point in it's lifetime. Check the OT threads, there's some good figures there.
 
Manmademan said:
This quote makes no sense. The Ps2 took around 2 years to drop, and even then it was only 50 dollars. It was neither "soon" nor "drastic."

Also: no one in their right mind is going to say anything about a price drop unless the drop is happening in less than 24 hours. It would cannibalize sales. If a price drop were coming next WEEK Tretton would still say "no."

the initial price drop for the ps2 in the usa was ~19 months into it and was $100, a reduction of price of 33%.
 
With Sony having flooded the various markets with the console I guess they're giving themselves time to adjust all the necessary changes at their plants needed for a more cost effective units for the near future.
 
Manmademan said:
This quote makes no sense. The Ps2 took around 2 years to drop, and even then it was only 50 dollars. It was neither "soon" nor "drastic."

Also: no one in their right mind is going to say anything about a price drop unless the drop is happening in less than 24 hours. It would cannibalize sales. If a price drop were coming next WEEK Tretton would still say "no."



Blu-ray (and possibly HD-DVD) are outselling DVD at this point in it's lifetime. Check the OT threads, there's some good figures there.

What? In terms of what? Overall sales? Uhm no, DVD is killing them in all regards.
 
Jtyettis said:
Which pretty much kills these price cut rumors. They can't bloody afford it. Worst catch-22 for them ever.

Actually that interview came right after the French Sony representative dude said it was possible that the PS3 would get a price cut later in the year. It was damage control.
 
Odysseus said:
the initial price drop for the ps2 in the usa was ~19 months into it and was $100, a reduction of price of 33%.

my mistake. I thought the first price drop was to $249. still, 19 months isn't soon by any means.
 
Jtyettis said:
What? In terms of what? Overall sales? Uhm no, DVD is killing them in all regards.

I said "At this point in it's lifetime." i.e. when DVD launched it was selling more slowly than blu-ray or HD-DVD currently are, and that was with no competing disc formats.

no, Divx doesn't count, as only Circuit City sold the damn things.

With Sony having flooded the various markets with the console I guess they're giving themselves time to adjust all the necessary changes at their plants needed for a more cost effective units for the near future.

actually, the "flooding" does kind of makes sense if they're looking to clear out their warehouses of the more expensive models before ramping up production of cheaper 65nm variants. hmmm
 
As long as even the veteranly (is that a word?) PS2 continues to sell more units than the 360, I won't quite consider Microsoft market leader. True next-gen market leader perhaps, but not overall market leader.
 
Phasing out of the 20gb will have an impact on this. Hard to speculate what kind of decrease in production costs are being anticipated by Sony though. No obligation to the 20 should free up some resources...

Price cut in the Fall would be huge. The new problem is that those who were waiting to bite on a 20gb when it dropped, will only have the choice of dropped 60, which will probably be more expensive than the original 20. Umm....
 
cartman414 said:
As long as even the veteranly (is that a word?) PS2 continues to sell more units than the 360, I won't quite consider Microsoft market leader. True next-gen market leader perhaps, but not overall market leader.

Yeah that I can agree with, and something most people don't realize is how the Wii's success is helping Sony's PS2 indirectly.

Companies like Ubisoft have stated it was a mistake to drop PS2 support too early, and third parties are going to be looking for SOMETHING to port to the Wii by the end of this year, and in 2008. There won't be anymore games to port other than GTAIV, FFXIII, MGS4, Mass Effect, etc., none of which will be ported to the Wii of course. So third parties are looking into making more PS2 games which can also be released on Wii.

This is already the case, look at the new Medal Of Honor, Burnout, Manhunt, etc.
 
Speevy said:
It has everything to do with what MS will or won't do. MS is the market leader, and will be for the remainder of this year. Everything Sony does will entail a response from Microsoft.


WHO CARES?!?!?!?!?

WHY DO YOU CARE? Damn!!!! There's millions of people that are looking at the PS3 right now and are thinking to themselves that if it was lower in price they would buy it.

The PS3 has to lower in price sometime in life. Do you understand that?
 
Ether_Snake said:
Yeah that I can agree with, and something most people don't realize is how the Wii's success is helping Sony's PS2 indirectly.

Companies like Ubisoft have stated it was a mistake to drop PS2 support too early, and third parties are going to be looking for SOMETHING to port to the Wii by the end of this year, and in 2008. There won't be anymore games to port other than GTAIV, FFXIII, MGS4, Mass Effect, etc., none of which will be ported to the Wii of course. So third parties are looking into making more PS2 games which can also be released on Wii.

This is already the case, look at the new Medal Of Honor, Burnout, Manhunt, etc.

This is a good point. also note that the PSP is still selling reasonably well, and for better or worse PSP to PS2 ports are ridiculously easy to pull off.

We'll probably be seeing decent Ps2 sales into 2009
 
Ether_Snake said:
I don't have 200 posts yet:)

As for the format war, Sony decided to fight through its console, but by doing so they have jeopardized their leading position in this field. I don't care how they would have made the Blu-Ray successful, but I don't see MS making HD-DVD the top movie format anyway, they are a computer software company first. Sony already has a lot of exposure in everything entertainment, they didn't need the PS3 to make the Blu-Ray a success over HD-DVD. Regardless, my point in the end is that they are going to "win" the format war by losing the console war. I don't care about SNL-inspired movies in super HD.


Have you seen the sudden jump in sales when the PS3 was released?
 
Gamecube and XBox price drops against PS2 didn't help them.

If PS3, 360 and Wii were all at the same price right now which do you think would be selling the most?

PS3 without a doubt.

Price drop will help it much more than the rest so MS can keep dropping the price of 360 until it hits the bargain bins but it's not going to stop consumers who wanted a PS3 from picking it up once it hits their price level.
 
cartman414 said:
As long as even the veteranly (is that a word?) PS2 continues to sell more units than the 360, I won't quite consider Microsoft market leader. True next-gen market leader perhaps, but not overall market leader.

Yet, save GH II and GOW, when is the next blockbuster for the system. Oh, I'd say it will be quite some time, maybe ever the size of GOW. 360 is eating up the software charts, and while hardware speaks for itself, software is the moneymaker. One can ignore software charts all they want, but developers and publishers will not. Logic is good.
 
I doubt the situation actually demands a price drop. If the PS3 does not catch up in any way until September and that the PS2 also magically faints, Sony might drop the PS3 price.
If this doesn't happen, they will push Home and milk the media of their new first party games and MGS4.

Yes this was a prediction. File it.
 
$399 fall of 2007

aside from simply having to, the record will show ps1 dropped 1/3 of its price within its first year on sale and therefor it is not out of the question.
 
Maxwell House said:
But, don't you think a $299.99 premium 360 is much more mainstream than a $499.99 PS3?

$299.99 is much more of an impulse buy price point.
.

WHO CARES!!!!!!!!!!
 
Speevy said:
Which is product A and which is product B? Because I'm having a tough time figuring that one out.
Yes this is the reason why Apple and Motorola can't seem to sell since there are other products that offer similar features.... Oh wait...
 
tjhooker, the Gamecube freaking killed the Xbox when it dropped price in 2003.

I'm sure the Xbox's price drop, coupled with major releases helped it outsell the PS2 on multiple occasions in 2004.
 
Barkley's Justice said:
$399 fall of 2007

aside from simply having to, the record will show ps1 dropped 1/3 of its price within its first year on sale and therefor it is not out of the question.

It's pretty much out of the question let's just be real about that. I mean seriously.
 
Jtyettis said:
Yet, save GH II and GOW, when is the next blockbuster for the system. Oh, I'd say it will be quite some time, maybe ever the size of GOW. 360 is eating up the software charts, and while hardware speaks for itself, software is the moneymaker. One can ignore software charts all they want, but developers and publishers will not. Logic is good.

I think you misspelled "Guitar Hero III."

That's the thing with the PS2- it's close enough to the Wii in power that making quick ports to the system is still feasible for third party publishers, and the massive install base makes it worth their while to consider it.

Also consider that any big PSP games (like..hmm...FFVII Crisis Core?) could be ported over in seconds if the publisher thinks there's a market for it.

The PSP and Wii will extend the lifespan of the PS2 longer than anyone thought, IMHO
 
Barkley's Justice said:
$399 fall of 2007

aside from simply having to, the record will show ps1 dropped 1/3 of its price within its first year on sale and therefor it is not out of the question.

19 months

and it is totally out of the question

i'd love to eat crow, however

edit: oh, ps1....
 
mckmas8808 said:
WHO CARES!!!!!!!!!!


You, apparently. Stop freaking out.

Yup. Some people should ask themselve why the Gamecube wasn't the first choice even if it was alot cheaper than the PS2...

It didn't have any games. The Xbox 360's lineup and library is AT LEAST as good as the PS3's.
 
Barkley's Justice said:
$399 fall of 2007

aside from simply having to, the record will show ps1 dropped 1/3 of its price within its first year on sale and therefor it is not out of the question.

This thread is loaded with misinformation...
 
Jtyettis said:
It's pretty much out of the question let's just be real about that. I mean seriously.

consumer electronics fall that far in price, and sony has already been making its best efforts at production cost reduction. and in any case, i just backed my point up with not one, not two but three facts.
 
This thread I created back in December explains all


How long before PS3 manufacturing cost matches 360's
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=135069

for the lazy:

Toshiba has recently announce that they are going full steam ahead with CELL products in your living room (sony already has 4 products in the works):
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,128312/article.html

Blue Diodes are being consumed like mad and HDMI seems like no biggie to be included in an HDTV nowadays (used to be only the expensive models).

These are arguably the most expensive parts of the PS3 and with all this mass production of them happening, was this Sony's plan all along? Will the tech cost of making these machines reach that of it's nearest competitor sooner than we think?

I predict PS3 core will eliminate the manufacturing cost difference between the 360 in 2 years.


What do you guys think?

[please note I say Manufacturing cost. Actual price depends on business model which cannot be predicted]

For those who are confuse by the comment:

Mass production is the production of large amounts of standardised products on production lines. It was popularised by Henry Ford in the early 20th Century, notably in his Ford Model T. Mass production is notable because it permits very high rates of production per person and therefore provides very inexpensive products.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_production
 
Ranger X said:
Ok, another example. Why did people chose PS2 instead of the Dreamcast?


Using Sega as an example of anything opens up a whole new can of worms. It had very little to do with the DC hardware, if that's where you're going.
 
Ranger X said:
Ok, another example. Why did people chose PS2 instead of the Dreamcast?
I did, the Dreamcast had a much better lineup as well though I was also desperately awaiting to save up money for the PS2 (to think I thought it was expensive back then).

just trying to validate your point
 
tjhooker said:
If PS3, 360 and Wii were all at the same price right now which do you think would be selling the most?

PS3 without a doubt.

this i don't agree with

tjhooker said:
Price drop will help it much more than the rest so MS can keep dropping the price of 360 until it hits the bargain bins but it's not going to stop consumers who wanted a PS3 from picking it up once it hits their price level.

This I do agree with.
 
TheProfessor said:
I did, the Dreamcast had a much better lineup as well though I was also desperately awaiting to save up money for the PS2 (to think I thought it was expensive back then).

just trying to validate your point

Well, not only you tried but you did! ;)
 
Speevy said:
Using Sega as an example of anything opens up a whole new can of worms. It had very little to do with the DC hardware, if that's where you're going.


should we bring ipod into it?
 
mckmas8808 said:
WHO CARES?!?!?!?!?

WHY DO YOU CARE? Damn!!!! There's millions of people that are looking at the PS3 right now and are thinking to themselves that if it was lower in price they would buy it.

The PS3 has to lower in price sometime in life. Do you understand that?

mugatu_crazy_pills.jpg
 
Ranger X said:
Ok, another example. Why did people chose PS2 instead of the Dreamcast?

bringing up the Dreamcast isn't exactly fair- Sega burned it's own fanbase with the 32X, Sega CD, and the Saturn before the Dreamcast launched, and the company was in such bad shape it would have taken a miracle to keep them profitable.

combine that with the massive hype the Ps2 had behind it (it played DVDs!!!) and it never had a shot.

All of the current players this round have treated their respective fanbases reasonably well, and have more than enough money to keep their platforms solvent even in the face of low sales.
 
TheProfessor said:
This thread I created back in December explains all


How long before PS3 manufacturing cost matches 360's
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=135069

for the lazy:
Uhm no. Lol i dunno why you're referencing off that thread (other than to support your indicative tag) but there were a lot of valid arguments against your supposed theories (not the least of which includes the price of a blu-ray drive incurring a considerably cheaper manufacturing cost than that of a dvd).
 
Manmademan said:
bringing up the Dreamcast isn't exactly fair- Sega burned it's own fanbase with the 32X, Sega CD, and the Saturn before the Dreamcast launched, and the company was in such bad shape it would have taken a miracle to keep them profitable.

combine that with the massive hype the Ps2 had behind it (it played DVDs!!!) and it never had a shot.

All of the current players this round have treated their respective fanbases reasonably well, and have more than enough money to keep their platforms solvent even in the face of low sales.

Well, it's not a comparison to dig deep into. I was just telling that while people are price sensitive alot, it doesn't mean that the cheaper sells more. (unless maybe it's farking cheap -- like the Wii is)
I think the PS3 can sell more if it's 499 or less while staying 50 to 100 bucks more than the 360. I think it really is just the price that it keeping the PS3 from walking on the red carpet unrolled by the PS2.
 
It's possible there might be a price drop - I don't think for a second that a $499 60GB model would mean a sharp increase in sales though. $499 is still too much money for a game console - Sony needs a massive price drop, and taking the 20GB model out of the equation means it's going to take even longer for the PS3 to be affordable for a lot of people.
 
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