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Why do people believe this gen is going to be short (5 years)?
- Thread starter MercuryLS
- Start date
BigPickZel
Member
PC has as much relevance to console gaming as luxury automobiles have to regular cars. People would rather have that BMW but most are driving that Toyota Camry. The latter will borrow from the former, but no one believes for a second that Nissan will stop making Altimas because a 5-series BMW is quicker.
I'd say about 90% of the predications I make pan out. I feel like I've been following the market long enough to see where things are heading. I could be wrong but I guess we'll see what happens. We had over a hundred big studios close down over the past gen and I don't see things getting better.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Everyone's in a such a hurry for more power, while more and more studios will close.
Because consoles in a sense went "stagnant" hardware and capability wise. In society we're conditioned to expect hardware updates from yearly with phones, to 3-5 years for major appliances like TVs. While games were still made, they showed their age. Not to say they got bad, TLoU proves quality console gaming was still there, many gamers were getting bored with the hardware, and seemingly from a place like GAF, you would see many of the console stalwarts jumping to PC gaming as a result of it constantly evolving and not limited by hardware capability for the most part.
Also, the path Sony and MS went this time with hardware speaks more volumes to me that they're expecting hardware changes a lot sooner than last gen, that's for sure, with the more almost "off the shelf" approach.
Also, the path Sony and MS went this time with hardware speaks more volumes to me that they're expecting hardware changes a lot sooner than last gen, that's for sure, with the more almost "off the shelf" approach.
The Hermit
Member
Actually, this gen will last forever
because it will be the last
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
I wonder if the console market is going to evolve in the future.
I doubt all this "PC" talk is going on deaf ears. You have to wonder if future consoles will allow for minor upgrades for those crave top performance from their games?
I doubt all this "PC" talk is going on deaf ears. You have to wonder if future consoles will allow for minor upgrades for those crave top performance from their games?
it will last forever because of x86 architecture
Way too early to tell.
5 years seems a little short though.
The next jump will probably not be like the ones we have seen and will have a much more "online" / "stream" / type thing.
There is little doubt that Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft are already in the planning phases and/or trying to forcast how its going to go.
5 years seems a little short though.
The next jump will probably not be like the ones we have seen and will have a much more "online" / "stream" / type thing.
There is little doubt that Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft are already in the planning phases and/or trying to forcast how its going to go.
at this point, I don't see the need for another console from either ms or Sony after this generation is done. They will develop a hardware closed kit box for developers and all games will be streamed from a tiny box you hook up to the tv. PlayStation NOW will be PSN and Live will be something similar. Nintendo will develop a hybrid console/handheld and most likely I'll skip the streaming service offered by MS and Sony, because they will once again do their own thing and ignore the market.
Rex_Harrison
Banned
The PC argument is so tired.
I like games. I buy consoles. I play games on consoles. 7 years later, I buy a new console. Rinse and repeat.
I don't like PC's. I don't like tinkering with settings and hardware. I don't like Kb/M. I know I can use a controller, but then I'd have to play against guys using Kb/M and I'd get destroyed and that's not fun.
Does that make sense ? I hope consoles never die. I think there are a lot people that share my feelings about PC's.
I like games. I buy consoles. I play games on consoles. 7 years later, I buy a new console. Rinse and repeat.
I don't like PC's. I don't like tinkering with settings and hardware. I don't like Kb/M. I know I can use a controller, but then I'd have to play against guys using Kb/M and I'd get destroyed and that's not fun.
Does that make sense ? I hope consoles never die. I think there are a lot people that share my feelings about PC's.
Some PCs are.
Many PCs aren't.
In case of PS4 you could even say "most PCs aren't".
About a third of Steam users plays with integrated GPU.
Grindlefly
Member
Legitimate non flame bait question but something I've been wondering for years, I've been a pc and console gamer for years and yes technically on specs the pc trounces the ps4/x1 same as last gen with ps3/360 but.... My pc with 8gig ram can't run tomb raider full settings with a smooth frame rate and the ps4 edition trounces it on my rig graphically. In last gen there is no way that a pc of similar specs to the ps3 ie: half gig ram, mediocre graphics card could of run a game graphically like the last of us, beyond 2 souls or gran turismo 6 or have anywhere near the performance.
Why???
EventHorizon
Member
I predict that we'll get updated hardware in 3 years. Maybe less and here's why:
- Hardware is no longer sold at a loss so there is less of a need to have to recoup costs
- Console hardware is mostly standardized around PC parts. AMD is doing development costs to improve CPU and GPU. All Sony and Microsoft have to do is use upgraded components.
- With a standard x86 architecture, backwards compatibility is assured
- The need to support VR for both companies and Microsoft's desire to not be seen as the inferior console will push for an accelerated hardware update schedule
huh? I can take a $299 desktop PC and buy a $150 card and it will be more powerful than a PS4.
Integrated GPU's from Nvidia and AMD are just as powerful if not more so than what's in PS4.
GamingIsDead
Member
I think it's entirely possible that the BWMs will' end up being valued more competitively then the Camrys during this gen even surpassing them in power for the same price.
The day will come when consoles no longer exist. The PlayStation 5/6 will be the last "real console, streaming services & devices are the future (also for the PC community one day).
Don`t get me wrong, I think consoles are a great thing but 720/900/1080 is too less for the 4K future.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Of course you can.
I'd argue that even without said power increase, the iPad, iPhone, and Android devices are already more relevant in the hands of casual gamers.
BigPickZel
Member
I would love to see a $399 rig that beats a console. I'm being serious, no snark.
Walter Matthau
Member
Last generation lasted a long time because all the consoles managed to have a certain degree of success. If PS4 grows in dominance, it's going to force competitors to produce a new product quicker than intended. Since publishers gravitate towards newer hardware, Sony would need to react.
I predict a shit ton of angry customers in your prediction.
perfectsil
Member
because soon more and more people will wish their consoles can play games in 4k on their 4k TVs.
but they will tell themselves what their consoles can do looks good enough until the new consoles come out, just like the end of last gen.
but they will tell themselves what their consoles can do looks good enough until the new consoles come out, just like the end of last gen.
No it won't...Nintendo is no longer in the same market as Sony or Microsoft. Whatever they release next time will NOT be a run of the mill console or handheld. It's going to be different.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
It remains to be seen whether 4K TVs make a significant dent on the market. Even if prices fall, nobody is broadcasting anything in 4K.
It could easily wind up being a flop like 3D.
It's also going to be interesting to see how much further tablets erode the PC desktop market.
It could easily wind up being a flop like 3D.
It's also going to be interesting to see how much further tablets erode the PC desktop market.
Beerman462
Member
Last gen's length won't happen again. Sony and MS are already making profit on hardware, where they were losing money on every console sold last gen.
Current consoles are equivalent to mid range PCs vs high end last gen. The hardware will show it's age sooner than later.
I personally hope they stick with x86 and make the next gen systems in 5 yrs fully backwards compatible. I believe Sony will, but I'm not sure if it would be as easy for MS due to ESRam. I really don't know if they would need ESRam in the next system to be fully backwards compatible or if they could just virtualize it in a large ram pool.
Current consoles are equivalent to mid range PCs vs high end last gen. The hardware will show it's age sooner than later.
I personally hope they stick with x86 and make the next gen systems in 5 yrs fully backwards compatible. I believe Sony will, but I'm not sure if it would be as easy for MS due to ESRam. I really don't know if they would need ESRam in the next system to be fully backwards compatible or if they could just virtualize it in a large ram pool.
BigPickZel
Member
I don't think so, part of the lameness of 3D is having to wear glasses. I feel like resolutions will continue to improve as long as the price allows.
No snark needed..you could literally buy a PC from 2 years ago for cheap and put a decent card in it and it will offer you more power. My late 2009 core2quad pc can still play a lot of modern games at 1080p at max settings.
My guess is people are looking at the Wii U's struggles and projecting that across the industry. So because Nintendo may have a new more powerful console then the super HD twins in a couple of years, that will force a shorter lifecycle this gen.
I doubt either will happen. I think 6 to 7 years is a safe bet. Right now we are seeing rushed out games during launch, but I doubt any of these games are really tapping into the systems and what they will evolve into. I think we are at least 4 to 5 years from the infrastructure of both cable television and streaming video going up to 4K, and then you really need mass adoption of television sets with that capability to justify the next gen.
The only thing I see that could possibly accelerate the time period to next gen is something like the mass proliferation of Oculus Rift, but I am not sure if that would require more power then the current gen consoles are capable of.
I do think this is probably the last gen of traditional consoles for Sony and MS. Nintendo may have one more in them. I think Next Gen will be a small cablebox, or a tablet that acts as your console, television receiver, and just about everything else. We probably only have 4 to 5 years of physical copies being the norm in the console world. Blu-Ray will probably still be supported with the next consoles, but it will be a very small portion of overall game sales.
I doubt either will happen. I think 6 to 7 years is a safe bet. Right now we are seeing rushed out games during launch, but I doubt any of these games are really tapping into the systems and what they will evolve into. I think we are at least 4 to 5 years from the infrastructure of both cable television and streaming video going up to 4K, and then you really need mass adoption of television sets with that capability to justify the next gen.
The only thing I see that could possibly accelerate the time period to next gen is something like the mass proliferation of Oculus Rift, but I am not sure if that would require more power then the current gen consoles are capable of.
I do think this is probably the last gen of traditional consoles for Sony and MS. Nintendo may have one more in them. I think Next Gen will be a small cablebox, or a tablet that acts as your console, television receiver, and just about everything else. We probably only have 4 to 5 years of physical copies being the norm in the console world. Blu-Ray will probably still be supported with the next consoles, but it will be a very small portion of overall game sales.
1) These systems are no where near as powerful or forward thinking as the previous gen. X360 and PS3 both majorly pushed the manufacturing envelope to have the legs they did. PS4 and especially the XBone are not.
2) This generation stuff started petering out in the last year or two of the gen. Sales slowed and game sales started plummeting. You make more money dropping a console to get people excited at 5 years.
3) There is very possibly going to be some major tech changes in the next five years that will necessitate new consoles. 4K, VR stuff, streaming, net neutrality. All could very much require major changes in how consoles do business and their required hardware by 2018 .
4) Xbone is already failing. If Microsoft decides to stay in the console business they will need a new console by 2018.
2) This generation stuff started petering out in the last year or two of the gen. Sales slowed and game sales started plummeting. You make more money dropping a console to get people excited at 5 years.
3) There is very possibly going to be some major tech changes in the next five years that will necessitate new consoles. 4K, VR stuff, streaming, net neutrality. All could very much require major changes in how consoles do business and their required hardware by 2018 .
4) Xbone is already failing. If Microsoft decides to stay in the console business they will need a new console by 2018.
perfectsil
Member
you know who's pushing 4K TVs? yeah Sony. Netflix will start streaming 4k content this year, the demand will be huge.
Is this a joke?
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Talk is cheap. Show me this cheap 2 year old PC or the $299 PC I can throw a cheap graphics card in to get more performance. Links.
Thanks for the information Iwata-san.
Frayne Daddy
Banned
Honestly I'm okay if systems only last 5 years. Almost all my tech gets replaced in that timeline. During the 360 era I built two gaming computers, got three new tvs, bought HD DVD player, then blu ray player, etc.
I don't need my gaming systems to be almost a decade old before being replaced
I don't need my gaming systems to be almost a decade old before being replaced
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Sony pushed 3D to. Remember that one?
Unless cable and local TV stations are broadcasting in true 4K, it's going nowhere. Netflix is a chump these days compared to the competition. They've got a new deal with Comcast coming so maybe that'll give them a boost.
EventHorizon
Member
Why? Due to the larger market share, the older generations of consoles will still be supported and will continue to be the main target development platform. Newer consoles will simply have a VR mode, which I predict will be the first way to sell the new consoles. We'll have the PS4 VR and XB1 VR models along side the standard versions. As long as multiplayer games are designed so that better specs don't give better chances to win then I don't see the problem. I just can't imagine there being a real backlash if a PS4 VR model is introduced in 2016.
perfectsil
Member
I don't know about $399 but if you take into account the cost of XBL/PS+ to play multiplayer the price is definitely competitive. a BMW/Toyota comparison is silly.
I believe even a first generation I series cpu from intel offers up more raw power than whats in cpu's in the new systems. You can also get some really great cards from amd and nvidia for cheap now. I may be exaggeration on prices a little, but it's not unrealistic to say 2011 PC hardware can still run todays games at max settings, because they surely can.
I don't think a lot of you understand just how low end the Xbox and ps4 are when you look at the chips inside of them. The cpu's in both systems are very similar to what you can find on a modern netbook.
PseudoViper
Member
I believe there is a decline in gaming or at least late bloomers(correct me if I am wrong). Money is the key to every equation in this world we live in. I'm not saying I'm rich and I'm not saying I am poor, but I make just enough to survive off of. That means if I can afford the price tag within my budget then I can buy it, if not then I won't(can't). Things are getting expensive.
Honestly, PC gaming was the best move I've made. So many sales.
Honestly, PC gaming was the best move I've made. So many sales.
prag16
Banned
It could happen, but that'd be a HUGE change for the industry. Expect early adopters to cry about having the "gimped hardware" then later on, will some games require the higher SKUs? This is slightly dangerous territory potentially.
IISANDERII
Member
The way things are headed, I agree. The unsustainability of the AAA model has pigeon holed big developers into spending large capital to produce games. It can't last.
You'll always have your Call of Duty's and GTA's making billions but a couple of franchises aren't enough to drive new hardware[development, risk etc] if the only other games making money every year consistently are indies.
Something new must come along which will light up the world, perhaps this VR/Occulus thing will be it...
Grindlefly
Member
So can you answer my earlier question?
Legitimate non flame bait question but something I've been wondering for years, I've been a pc and console gamer for years and yes technically on specs the pc trounces the ps4/x1 same as last gen with ps3/360 but.... My pc with 8gig ram can't run tomb raider full settings with a smooth frame rate and the ps4 edition trounces it on my rig graphically. In last gen there is no way that a pc of similar specs to the ps3 ie: half gig ram, mediocre graphics card could of run a game graphically like the last of us, beyond 2 souls or gran turismo 6 or have anywhere near the performance.
Why???
I don't get it, consoles will never have higher specs than a high-end PC at the time they will be released. There's no reason to be fast releasing new hardware.
We will have to wait for 8/9 years when Titan-esque console components get affordable prices.
At this point I can't wait Nintendo announce the 3DS successor, because at least Console makers can improve portable devices.
We will have to wait for 8/9 years when Titan-esque console components get affordable prices.
At this point I can't wait Nintendo announce the 3DS successor, because at least Console makers can improve portable devices.
this.
And yet, a netbook will struggle to play the simplest of games.
prag16
Banned
Three new TVs and two gaming PCs in a seven year span? That's not typical for basically anybody...
They are essentially netbook level CPUs, just with eight cores instead of two or four. Netbooks are hamstrung gaming-wise more due to often cellphone level GPUs.
What cpu/gpu are you using? Integrated Intel? RAM will make little difference here...