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[Melchiah]

The generation begins as soon as one company releases a next generation console. I don't think any body is saying that as soon as the next gen begins, all the current gen consoles will drop off the face of the Earth. Look at the state of things now, current gen is PS4, XBO, and Wii U. Yet there are probably more compelling releases coming out for the consoles of the previous generation this year than the PS4 and co.
The PS4 could very well last 6 years before the PS5, but it could still only have been 5 years before the next generation starts.

Well, if Nintendo tries to jumpstart another gen in, say, 2-3 years, because the Wii U wasn't a success, would that dictate the end for current generation? The breadth of releases in 1999 clearly implies the old generation wasn't over yet, just like the PS3/360 gen last year.

What else is there coming to PS3/360 this year, than Dark Souls 2 and Persona 5, that isn't coming to the new systems as well? If you had said 2013, I would have agreed.

 

[To Far Away Times]

The jump in power was pretty minimal, and costs should fall pretty quickly on the PS4/Xbox One as well. Traditional console generations are about 5 to 6 years as well.

 

[Vigilant Gambit]

Steam machines are launching this year. I think they're gonna change the way we think about consoles and generations.

 

[SeanNoonan]

Xbox Two sooner than anyone wants/expects.

That's my guess.

 

[Sydle]

No telling. It will depend on a number of factors and where Microsoft and Sony see the largest growth potential. If VR and/or AR take off and the current systems cannot handle them properly then they'll make stronger boxes. If AAA games continue to show significant gains then they'll make a box for even bigger AAA experiences. If the consumer market shifts to smaller games, indies, and mobile then there's really no need to spend hundreds of millions on R&D for a new piece of living room hardware as quickly.

I think this will be a long gen again, at least 6 years, with growth on consoles in business models such as games as a service, community-driven game development, cross-device play, and high-quality small/arcade-like productions.

 

[GoodlifeX]

Steam machines are launching this year. I think they're gonna change the way we think about consoles and generations.

I'm inclined to agree. I think it will lead to people who are more interested to build a steam machine (or pc) themselves. I also think the idea of generations will fade out and everything will just steadily improve over time.

 

[Ragnarok]

i freakin hope it only lasts 5 years. That's what console cycles used to be and it was great. Tech moves way too fast to be playing games on 7-8 year old hardware.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Very interesting thing happens if MS and Sony are 6 years, and Nintendo is 5.

Nintendo in 2017
Sony and MS in 2019

If Nintendo is in 2017, maybe we see a Nintendo handheld in 2016, and both the Nintendo systems are cross compatible between the two.

What if MS or Sony bow out in the mean time? What if Nintendo does?

 

[Josh7289]

We're moving away from generations as we knew them before. We're getting less important updates and product refreshes instead, like the Apple model.

 

[Frayne Daddy]

I personally don't think steam machines will catch on. Right now they seem to confuse the general public more then anything. I think it has the android affect where to many cooks are in the kitchen. Ultimately shitty steam machines will be the downfall. If steam released a quality nice machine and that's it I think more would flock to it.

Also no EA games which would kind of suck.

 

[Sakura]

Well, if Nintendo tries to jumpstart another gen in, say, 2-3 years, because the Wii U wasn't a success, would that dictate the end for current generation? The breadth of releases in 1999 clearly implies the old generation wasn't over yet, just like the PS3/360 gen last year.

What else is there coming to PS3/360 this year, than Dark Souls 2 and Persona 5, that isn't coming to the new systems as well? If you had said 2013, I would have agreed.

That South Park game? Lightning Returns? Castlevania? FFXHD? Tales of Xillia 2? There are still plenty of last gen games in 2014, and tons of cross gen games.

And like I was trying to say, I don't think any body is saying the generation will be "over". Just like the PS3/360 generation isn't "over" yet. When the OP said "Why do people believe this gen is going to be short (5 years)?" I'm pretty sure he was referring to 5 years until next gen consoles, not 5 years until there are no longer PS4/XBO games being released.

 

[Melchiah]

That South Park game? Lightning Returns? Castlevania? FFXHD? Tales of Xillia 2? There are still plenty of last gen games in 2014, and tons of cross gen games.

And like I was trying to say, I don't think any body is saying the generation will be "over". Just like the PS3/360 generation isn't "over" yet. When the OP said "Why do people believe this gen is going to be short (5 years)?" I'm pretty sure he was referring to 5 years until next gen consoles, not 5 years until there are no longer PS4/XBO games being released.

Well, that's more than I thought, but I wouldn't say there are "more compelling releases coming out for the consoles of the previous generation this year than the PS4 and co.". I guess that's a matter of taste though, especially if you prefer Japanese titles, which seem to be pretty short on the new systems during their infancy.

For me the PS3/360 gen is pretty much over with the DLCs of TLOU and Bioshock Infinite, Beyond: Two Souls was the last full old gen game I've bought. There isn't anything of interest coming after them, barring some PS+ offerings I might have missed previously, like Brothers: A Tale of Two Sons.

 

[angrygnat]

To be completely honest with you 5 years is just fine with me. I never got to get in on the ground floor of a console till this generation and I am loving it. It's almost like you are the first person to hear a secret. I get it that theres a drought but so far it hasn't bothered me. I have had Metro, Remember Me, and Bioshock Infinite to nurse me though it. If that fails, I can always spring for Trine 2 to get me over the hump until March. I am dying to get that but until taxes come in I am kind of strapped.

 

[ChrisMahoney]

Exponential power increase will bring tablets/phones past the current consoles very fast.

Power increase in mobile chips is starting to slow down. It took until late 2014 to have a mobile chip as powerful as a 2006 Xbox 360, and that was with crazy power increases.

 

[Jigorath]

Nintendo will try to start a new generation early, probably Microsoft as well. That would pretty much force Sony's hand to get a new console out.

 

[CadetMahoney]

Why do people believe this gen is going to be short (5 years)?

Consoles are underpowered for this generation start. As time goes on PC will be blowing things out of the water with 2 1080p screen 120Hz VR sets making everything else look like shit. So console manufacturers will want to capitalize on PC power in a console. If bone can sell millions at $499 even tho it's shit imagine if they concentrated purely on power, there is demand for complex graphics at locked 60fps.

 

[Graphics Horse]

I personally don't think steam machines will catch on. Right now they seem to confuse the general public more then anything. I think it has the android affect where to many cooks are in the kitchen. Ultimately shitty steam machines will be the downfall. If steam released a quality nice machine and that's it I think more would flock to it.

Also no EA games which would kind of suck.

Android seems to be doing ok, strange analogy.

 

[Coda]

I think the Wii U is in for the long haul because Nintendo needs to make it viable for consumers. I think they will in the next couple years and will prove it is a decent console with not the craziest power, but the quality of its software. They've typically always been about this after the Gamecube. Them being on a different plane will make them immune to the power hungry/social media wars of their competition (XBO and PS4). I'm kind of bummed on where the industry is going on a whole. Creative new IPs and games are dying by the second and Nintendo is the only one rooted in the heart of what made gaming what it is today. Every company has their strong suits in this business and it's why the competition exists, for that different flavor of each console. Steam machines will be great but there's still that excitement when a new console is born with unique features. I feel like Steam machines are kind of generic and too by the books to be interesting. I'm sure they'll be successful but I feel like the want for accessibility and freshness is what will keep consoles alive for quite some time.

 

[Aversion]

5 years ain't short man. How old you planning on living?

 

[Ape]

These consoles seem so poorly future proofed that I don't see them lasting long. Five years seems like a good start to a new line of hardware.

 

[LegendofLex]

Because this generation's track record so far suggests it's falling in line with the industry-wide trend of rapid price contraction. Do you think any of the console companies will be able to make money for very long in that environment?

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

I'd say about 90% of the predications I make pan out. I feel like I've been following the market long enough to see where things are heading. I could be wrong but I guess we'll see what happens. We had over a hundred big studios close down over the past gen and I don't see things getting better.

How in the world did you guys give him a free pass?

Noobsaur is probably the most fallible incorrect poster that we have on Gaf

 

[MercuryLS]

Because this generation's track record so far suggests it's falling in line with the industry-wide trend of rapid price contraction. Do you think any of the console companies will be able to make money for very long in that environment?

What are you talking about?

 

[polyh3dron]

How in the world did you guys give him a free pass?

Noobsaur is probably the most fallible incorrect poster that we have on Gaf

Seriously. I find it hilarious that he made such a bold prediction of PS4 sales in Japan and then he's nowhere to be found in the Japan sales threads when he's flat out wrong. Oh but he can come in this thread and make a claim that 90% of his predictions are true and go on to toot his horn about his superior industry knowledge.

 

[balohna]

5 year cycle is not so bad. 6 or maybe 7 is probably ideal. The fact that Xbox 360 lasted for 8 years before a successor came out is remarkable. Especially when Xbox to 360 was only 4 years.

If the One doesn't pick up, it may be another short one from MS.

 

[III-V]

Its really difficult to speculate on this.

I don't think we have seen the end of consoles after this gen. Its the PC (sadly in a sense) that is slowly being phased out.

Everyone can agree (I think) this last gen was too long, and the PC architecture that PSXB moved to can lend itself far more easily to playing previous gen titles when the next gen comes out.

If I had to put money on the table, I would imagine a Dec 2019 launch. I personally however, would gladly make the jump after 4 years.

Of course, we will see how the streaming thing works out.

 

[manzoman96]

Wii was an outlier, I don't think a console will ever have that type of penetration with the mainstream again. This gen is going to contract back to the numbers we saw in the PS2/GC/XBox era.

But the PS2 is the best selling console of all time. Probably an outlier as well.

 

[SolidChamp]

This kind of talk scares and annoys me. I just got the friggin' PS4. I'd be fine with another 7 years.

 

[Curufinwe]

Power increase in mobile chips is starting to slow down. It took until late 2014 to have a mobile chip as powerful as a 2006 Xbox 360, and that was with crazy power increases.

Yup. There aren't going to be exponential increases in mobile computing power. There are no magic solutions for hear dissipation and battery life issues.

 

[Alebrije]

Maybe because PS4 is ahead both competitors ( tech ) , Nintendo need a new console ASAP and if MS feels Xbone wont compete againts PS4 for long time they will be willing to change generation faster than previous one.

 

[meanspartan]

It really depends on whether or not there is another Xbox by Microsoft (I'm serious). Some people on here saying if it sells poorly, Microsoft will rush out another system to get out there first.

But if yet another generation goes by with the Xbox brand not bringing in significant profits, the chorus of voices calling for Xbox to be canned or sold will only grow louder.

And Sony for that matter; yes Ps4 has had an exceptional start, but the rest of the company is not doing too hot.

Or Nintendo, who knows how they are gonna rebound from Wii U, and when they decide to move on to their next machine. All in all, I think that we may get the first shift of who is involved in the console business that has held steady since Sega dropped out in 2001. Gen. 8 will very likely be turbulent, and Generation 9 therefore could be the most exciting in a long time, simply because we don't know who will be involved in it.

 

[Jeels]

A five year gen with the first two being all cross gen nonsense would be horrible.

This is what I was thinking. I don't know why people want a 5 year generation when we'll be getting cross gen stuff until holiday 2015.

 

[Atomski]

I predict Sony will go long (6-7 years), but MS will go short (5 years) so they can get out ahead again

Wasnt it Sony that said it would be a shorter gen in the first place?

 

[Hubble]

The mobile gaming sector is exploding year by year, and as such that is where the technology is shifting. Computer hardware companies have focused their technologies on the portable/mobile industry. Mobile hardware has dramatically improved year by year and is likely to catch up to consoles sooner than previous gens, and is why many speculate this gen will be shorter than usual.

 

[Mister Chippy]

If VR takes off then in 5 years Sony will announce PS5 with VR headset for $499 4K 120fps Waifu Dating Sim Heaven.

Japan has already done this with the Occulus Rift and a digital fleshlight. I kid ye fucking not.

 

[D.Lo]

In 4 years we'll see the Wii V.
Or maybe the Nintendo 65 instead.

 

[Larogue]

The Xbone is already lagging behind and showing its weakness although its only 3month old. So Its really hard for it to last more than 4-5 years. Its successor is coming really early or Microsoft will keep losing its market share.

The PS4 is a beast and capable to last up to 6-7 years, unless Microsoft strikes hard on its 4th or 5th year.

 

[meanspartan]

A five year gen with the first two being all cross gen nonsense would be horrible.

Sadly, I think we are going to have to get used to long cross-gen "eras" going forward. Games just cost way too much to make that they can't just be released to a still-developing install base on a young console(s). As a gamer, I hate that games are held back because there has to be a damn version of the game that can run on hardware from 2005.

But business-wise, there is no way that this game I invested a ton of money in isn't going to launch on the machines with tens of millions of people in install base so long as they keep selling. And given that the Ps3 and 360 are still HD capable consoles, I think they will age much better than their predecessors did.

 

[meanspartan]

The mobile gaming sector is exploding year by year, and as such that is where the technology is shifting. Computer hardware companies have focused their technologies on the portable/mobile industry. Mobile hardware has dramatically improved year by year and is likely to catch up to consoles sooner than previous gens, and is why many speculate this gen will be shorter than usual.

Yes and this is what everyone has been saying for a couple years now, but Ps4 still broke records.

 

[zerokoolpsx]

Consoles were already surpassed by PC before they launched. Both using cheaper cpu's than high end ones. Cost is lower to manufacture them and faster to make a profit this gen compared to last gen.
5-6 years max. Sony and Microsoft will release a new console by then.
Can't believe current gen is still going. 8 years for Sony and 9 for Microsoft.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Yes and this is what everyone has been saying for a couple years now, but Ps4 still broke records.

It's almost like Mobile Gaming and Console Gaming are not mutually exclusive right? People buy phones to have phones, they just now have the added side effect of playing powerful games, but they are very restrictive in what they can do because of their required touch screen, as well as the form factor. Consoles will likely always exist so people can have Blu-Ray and Netflix capable set top boxes that can also play games. Microsoft mispredicted peoples focus on that, and got a lot of crap for it (queue "TV, TV, Sports, TV, Sports, Sports" videos from the reveal).

 

[meanspartan]

It's almost like Mobile Gaming and Console Gaming are not mutually exclusive right? People buy phones to have phones, they just now have the added side effect of playing powerful games, but they are very restrictive in what they can do because of their required touch screen, as well as the form factor. Consoles will likely always exist so people can have Blu-Ray and Netflix capable set top boxes that can also play games. Microsoft mispredicted peoples focus on that, and got a lot of crap for it (queue "TV, TV, Sports, TV, Sports, Sports" videos from the reveal).

Exactly.

The mobile sector isn't really taking anyone from the 360/Ps3/PC playerbase in large numbers, though admittedly maybe some Wii buyers have shifted to mobile gaming only.

But what gamer who buys at least a couple $60 games a year has ever picked up an Iphone and said "I am totally content with just this! I'm not gonna buy a console or gaming PC ever again!"

 

[GoodlifeX]

Consoles were already surpassed by PC before they launched. Both using cheaper cpu's than high end ones. Cost is lower to manufacture them and faster to make a profit this gen compared to last gen.
5-6 years max. Sony and Microsoft will release a new console by then.
Can't believe current gen is still going. 8 years for Sony and 9 for Microsoft.

And upgrading a pc to perform like one of these consoles today isn't that expensive. 5-6 years from now the current gen console specs will seem like a joke.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I'd say about 90% of the predications I make pan out. I feel like I've been following the market long enough to see where things are heading. I could be wrong but I guess we'll see what happens. We had over a hundred big studios close down over the past gen and I don't see things getting better.

noobastradamus, eh?

Will never have such a huge lead ever again. The Ps2 library is filled with hundreds of games that only came to the Ps2.

With the PS4 it will share like 97% of titles with other platforms so it can never pull that far ever again.

I also doubt next-gen sales are going to be all that hot for a while. With the Ps2 you were getting a DVD player with it which was a huge deal. What's the big game changer for this upcoming generation? Better looking versions of games that are going to be coming the ps3/360 for years to come? That's not going to be enough.

Sony doesn't have the money to purchase exclusive third party games.

So instead they promote indie games which cost them pennies to secure.

PS4 about to bomb if they think they can sell systems with such highly anticipated exclusives like killzone and infamous lol.

Ps4 is going to sell like crap in japan.

Smash will outsell all software for ps4 in Japan next year.

Kh3 and FF15 are never even going to come out, you're all delusional if you think otherwise.

It's going to be intersting to see what PS+ adoption rates are when ps4 comes out. I feel like it might be a failure.

And this is why next-gen might be destined to fail. The big sports and fps games are going to be playable on current gen consoles probably indefinitely. Casuals already have thier Netflix and Cod box.

It's going to be fun to see all these studios crumble trying to sell games that cost more to develop than this gen to a limited consumer base. Good luck trying to get those few million sales and break even on userbases under 10 million.

It's going to be intersting to see what studios commit to making next gen only games for what I assume is going to be two platforms with abysmal sales for the first year.

LOL at a corporation as big as Microsoft being threatened by someone like Sony who hasn't sold a single next-gen console yet and gave Microsoft most of its market share last generation.

To attract users they need high profile games that you can't get anywhere else. As already shown by the past year and a half Sony has no interest in doing that.

Poor noobasaur, when every single comment of yours seems to predict doom and gloom for Sony, despite the remarkable first few month of sales for the PS4, that doesn't bode well for dat 90% accuracy rate.

 

[SlickShoesRUCrazy]

More a hope than belief for me.

Corps are losing little or no money on each console sold.

These consoles are weak in comparison to where the 360/ps3 were when they launched respectively, especially after 8 years of the 360 and 7 years of the ps3.

It's a matter of time before all games are sub-full hd on xb1 and ps4 as developers choose to push graphics above resolution.

Couple that with 4k TV's becoming very popular in the next 5 years with the likes of Vizio putting out a $1k 50" 4k tv, I don't want to be playing sub-full hd consoles for more than 5 years.

all my opinion of course.

 

[Kai Ozu]

It's been really slow for even announcements.

 

[Biker19]

Sony pushed 3D too. Remember that one?

Unless cable and local TV stations are broadcasting in true 4K, it's going nowhere. Netflix is a chump these days compared to the competition. They've got a new deal with Comcast coming so maybe that'll give them a boost.

Heck, Cable & Local TV stations are just getting to HD, & HD TV's have just became the standard over SDTV. Good luck trying to convince consumers to shell out tons of money for a 4K TV.

 

[alf717]

i freakin hope it only lasts 5 years. That's what console cycles used to be and it was great. Tech moves way too fast to be playing games on 7-8 year old hardware.

I came to post something very similar to this but you hit it on the head. 5 year then move on.

 

[Melchiah]

noobastradamus, eh?

Poor noobasaur, when every single comment of yours seems to predict doom and gloom for Sony, despite the remarkable first few month of sales for the PS4, that doesn't bode well for dat 90% accuracy rate.

So amusing to see them compiled now. Every single prediction has turned out to be false so far, which is no wonder as all of them are tainted with partialism. I bet it stings how things turned out.

 

[jblank83]

Technology moves too fast for 8 year generations. Last generation was ridiculous, and the only reason it dragged on so long is because the economy sucks and launching a new console is expensive. Why do that when you can still sell hardware at $150+ profit per unit.

As is, 5 years is already stretching the capability of hardware. That's why you see new phones every year, new GPUs/CPUs every year, new tech every year. The only reason the console lifetime stretches on that long is as a necessity to accommodate how long it takes to develop software.

5-6 years is a bridge. It's a span of technology that is perfect to introduce new tech, allow it to mature, make profit from that tech, and facilitate quality software with good profitability. Not to mention other engineering concerns, like refining knowledge, learning new techniques, processes, development tools, planning for the next hardware platform, and so on.

Eight years is a ridiculous time span. It serves no one except the bottom line of the platform maker. And now that companies are charging for online, it's even more ridiculous.

Well, if Nintendo tries to jumpstart another gen in, say, 2-3 years, because the Wii U wasn't a success, would that dictate the end for current generation?

The start of one generation doesn't mean the end of the previous. Different generations of hardware exist on the market together. NES was on the market for years after the launch of hte SNES. Same goes for the Playstation line, the Wii, and many others.