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[Jhn]

I'm sure it won't fail, but in a more reasonable world it probably should.
It seems like they are betting on that brand loyalty mixed with consumer unawareness will be enough for them to still pull ahead, and they could very well be right. As a general rule, people are stupid consumers.

 

[Mr_eX]

If these hypothetical people were to buy the xbone for Call of Duty they wouldn't be able to play with their friends on 360 anyway. So why wouldn't they and all their friends get PS4s, since it's cheaper?

 

[BibiMaghoo]

Brand loyalty is strong in this industry, and MS would benefit from these sales. Unfortunately for them, even the die hard fanboys and girls are wavering, or have thrown in the towel already, though obviously a fair number remain.

The number of people that will support them has dwindled remarkably quickly. This will cost them greatly.

I believe that a compromise will be made, somehow. They won't backtrack because that's weak, but they will certainly make some concessions for the consumer interest.

 

[ElTorro]

By the way, are there any customers who will give a shit about Kinect?

The "core" (hate that word) gamers don't seem to care at all. And why should they.

The casual non-gamers probably already have a Kinect 1 and won't see much benefit in a Kinect 2 that justifies the investment. Pretty much the same as with the Wii U.

 

[kewlmyc]

I totally disagree.

1: Brand Loyalty.
Doesn't exist, the 'winner' each generation has had very little, if nothing, to do with who previously won.

2: People who only play multiplayer won't care about "always online"
That's true, but in no way does it benefit MS, it only puts them on par in that one area.

3: People won't care about used games
Yes, they will.

4: Exclusive DLC
Does nothing, Sony had plenty this generation

5: They don't care about the specs or price
You're wrong.

You're right, brand loyalty doesn't usually matter. But this generation, it might. Mostly due to people already having all of their friends on their friend lists on Xbox Live. That's 7 years of friends that they'll be getting rid of just to move to another console. A lot of people won't think it's worth it. I personally don't care about friend lists, but you'd be surprised at the people who do. And yes, a lot of people don't care that it's $100 more expensive. If it was $200 more expensive, then maybe, but just $100? A good number of those who only had a 360 might not care.

If these hypothetical people were to buy the xbone for Call of Duty they wouldn't be able to play with their friends on 360 anyway. So why wouldn't they and all their friends get PS4s, since it's cheaper?

What if all of their friends got Xbox One for the same reason: So they don't have to re-add each other and come up with new gamertags. I'm talking about people who only owned 360s last gen.

 

[Chaos17]

I love how the OP alianate all the other (solo?) gamers since for him only multiplayers gamers matter.

 

[Seth Balmore]

1: Brand Loyalty
Probably MS's strongest weapon, at least during the first years. I think for many people brand loyalty translates to the "all of my friends are on Xbone so I have to get one to play with them" factor, and that will matter. Still, that only works for the hardcore Xbox loyalists; those people aren't the majority.

2: People who only play multiplayer won't care about "always online"
True, but again, those people aren't the majority.

3: People won't care about used games
Disagree. People care a great deal about used games. Most of the CoD crowd will always buy the next CoD on day one but that's the only game they're willing to pay full price for. For anything else, it's used used used. Games are too expensive to risk buying everything that catches one's eye at full price.

4: Exclusive DLC
Only works in the case of CoD and to be honest, that never stopped CoD from selling millions on PS3 as well. Sony has also had exclusive DLC before and it didn't make that much of a difference as far as I'm aware.

5: They don't care about the specs or price.
Utterly disagree. Not everyone is tech-savvy enough to care about specs in-depth, true, but when word of mouth starts spreading the fact that PS4 is more powerful than Xbone, people will listen to that and they will care to a varying degree. What every Average Joe out there understands, though, is moolah. And a $100 difference is hard to ignore. It WILL matter.

Xbone won't fail but it won't be as successful as PS4, especially outside North America.

 

[NullPointer]

1: Brand Loyalty

This is a two way street.

 

[Solid warrior]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say people will probably know it costs $499 BEFORE they buy it

Still doesn't matter when the average gamer sees that it includes a controller and A KINECT. While at the same time looking at the PS4 which includes a controller only. I'm sure a gamestop employee will find a way to change a customer's mind.

 

[Burbank_]

5: They don't care about the specs or price.
Most of the gamers I've bee mentioning won't care or know that the PS4 is more powerful than the Xbone. They will look at the price and just assume "$100 more expensive? It must be more powerful." Even if you show them the specs, this won't care that it has 8GB of GDDR5 of memory. Hell, they probably don't even know what that means.

?
You have this backwards. Cheaper is better.

 

[kenta]

I feel like it's a mistake to assume Call of Duty will remain perpetually dominant. Each console generation seems to have a new king rise to the top and looking at Activision's track record CoD will likely cede to something else. Given the groundswell of core gamers who apparently prefer PS4, and would be the first ones to popularize a new game before it reached the kind of people in your class (which is what happened with CoD4), I'd think anything can happen

 

[disastermouse]

The hardcore in each social circle will buy PS4. Supply constraints for Xbone means even people who want one will break down and get a PS4. Casual Calladooty players will buy whatever their friends have and that will be a domino effect starting at the hardcore.

 

[Clear]

1: Brand Loyalty

Ask Sony how that went for them despite their overwhelming PS2 era advantage.

2: People who only play multiplayer won't care about "always online"

Xbone doesn't have the advantages over the competition that 360 had at launch, and with multiplayer always being a subset of the total userbase less overall sales will drag multiplayer back along with it.

3: People won't care about used games

Its a very big sector of the market, which proves pretty much irrefutably that it does in fact matter to a lot of consumers.

4: Exclusive DLC

Only has an impact when you are already in a dominant position; PS3 has had more than its fair share of exclusive DLC this gen, and it really hasn't changed much.

5: They don't care about the specs or price.

Early adopters do, and they set the tone and the narrative for a console's fate. But more to the point having lower specs and a higher price sure as hell aren't of any benefit in selling your product over the competition when all else is basically equal.

Bottom line is that 360 is not nearly so dominant over PS3 in the market that MS can afford to get complacent. And everything so far about Xbone screams complacency and arrogance to me. If they don't reverse this pre-launch, PS4 is going to get a substantial early advantage.

 

[oti]

Of course some people will buy the Xbox One. Some just don't care about the restrictions and that's totally fine, more power to them.

But wait until mass media really gets wind of what those restrictions actually mean. Microsoft will be facing some tough court battles (here in the EU at least) and the narrative will be more and more negative as launch approaches and for the following weeks.

I can totally see all of your points though. I consider them being smart and correct. I don't really know CoD fans. Let's see whether their opinion will change. For the last years they were satisfied with the Xbox 360 and rightfully so. Microsoft's whole gaming strategy for the Xbox One could be summarized as: "We are the CoD machine, again!" I just have to wonder, how many (CoD) gamers switching to PS4 it needs for them to reconsider their approach.

 

[UberTag]

The one reason that I can give to counter every one of kewlmyc's arguments is the following.
All of those reasons he gives for these players to stick with Xbox One and not go to PS4 are EQUALLY valid arguments as to why they will stick with Xbox 360 and not go to either next-gen system.

Anyone that doesn't care about specs, doesn't care about always online, doesn't want to lose their friends and cares about Xbox-exclusive DLC can just as easily keep on buying COD and other games for their Xbox 360s. If they're only buying one or two games a year anyhow, they sure as hell don't need to invest $500 in a new gaming console.

 

[Y2Kev]

We have a number of threads discussing all of the items in your original post, including pro and against. Not every individual opinion needs a new thread.