Using the perceived value of the 3DS and VITA to the WiiU does not work. Like I said in my post, the value of the Wii and WiiU comes from their appeal as social devices. Portables are not social devices. Families or friends don't come over each other's houses to play 3DS or VITA. They are personal devices. So a single user has to feel that paying $250 for an entertainment device has value. And as a gift for a single user, it is expensive.
But, I will say this about the 3DS, its initial sales were very good. It simply lost momentum for a while due to the lack of quality games in its launch window. I maintain that Nintendo did not have to lower its price to get 3DS sales to pick up.
And recently, a business analysts said the same thing. The price drop did not increase 3DS sales. When the quality games were released, thats when the sales really started to pick up.
Nintendo most likely dropped the price of the portable due to (as hinted at in the press) pressure by third parties who were or had made exclusive deals with Nintendo. Some of those deals materialized during TGS.
Since its appearance during CES, the WiiU has sparked people's imaginations. The Zelda demo still impresses even after games like Skyrim has come out. The Tokyo demo has made people imagine all kinds of fun uses for games. For example Mario Kart Double Dash , or other single player games that can be turned into two player games. The social appeal of the console is growing, and its visuals is a noticeable step up from this gen.
Now here is why I think Nintendo might launch WiiU right after E3 2012.
Imagine, Nintendo getting a(n exclusive) console deal to show the Olympics on the WiiU? One member of the family can watch sport Y on their TV, while another can follow sport X on the WiiU tablet?
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Perceived value works with consoles as well. The PS3 even with Bluray and wireless could not overtake 360 even though they had virtually the same games and Playstation was the greater brand name at the time.
Price matters, especially in our economy, and even if the 3DS sales picked up when games came out, that does not mean that those same sales would be had at a $250 price point. Vita sold really well for a day or two as well. Early adopters will buy the Wii U, but for the impact and especially to push their head start, a price point at $349.99 while ps3 and 360 are selling around $200 is where Nintendo should set their sights. Selling beyond 400 would be foolhardy, $399.99 while being a reasonable price, most of it's market is broke, and selling out every month for a year would do wonders to push Wii U that much further.
I'm with you in the hype train, I love everything Nintendo, and I'm excited about the Wii U as well, but without a lead Nintendo game to sell the system (Mario 64, Mario Land 3D, Mario Galaxy sequel, or Zelda Sequel) This system will not get off to the start it would at 349.99 or below.
TL
R Without a heavy hitter at launch, Nintendo needs to leverage their price point in their favor. Remember 360's successor might come out this xmas, Nintendo doesn't want to fight toe to toe with Microsoft, it wants to use its head start to create a giant niche (say 60% of the gaming market) for the Wii U.
Also the Olympics would be an interesting twist, but it has little to do with the pricing of the console, besides a marketing partnership like that would eat up the extra 50-100 dollars you are talking about.
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