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[lunchwithyuzo]

More important, nintendo has only one true core game with Motion Plus support with Zelda - Skyward Sword. Thats pathetic...

There's also... uh.. Flingsmash?

I still can't understand why NOA/NOE never released Reginliev. Wii's been starving for M+ content, why not actually release something that supports it?

 

[Hiltz]

There's also... uh.. Flingsmash?

I still can't understand why NOA/NOE never released Reginliev. Wii's been starving for M+ content, why not actually release something that supports it?

Probably because Reginliev is a niche game, but then again so is FlingSmash. Seriously, this is NOA and NOE you're talking about and NOA is especially picky nowadays. They simply don't release every second-party game Nintendo publishes.

 

[BurntPork]

I know I'm going to get hell for this, but I have to ask.

On the off chance that Wii U flops and 3DS sales remain poor, how likely do you think it is that Nintendo has a back-up plan and can successfully rebound with a new console by 2014 without ending up deep in the red?

 

[wazoo]

I know I'm going to get hell for this, but I have to ask.

On the off chance that Wii U flops and 3DS sales remain poor, how likely do you think it is that Nintendo has a back-up plan and can successfully rebound with a new console by 2014 without ending up deep in the red?

Take it differently. Did Sony had a backup plan when they realized that the last baby of Ken Kutaragi would cost 600$ and make them lose 3B$ in 5 years ? No, they did not, they cried and went for it.

Stop stressing, Nintendo will not give up on wiiU even if it fails. They will anyway not go for a classical console like Sony if this is what you think.

 

[AceBandage]

I know I'm going to get hell for this, but I have to ask.

On the off chance that Wii U flops and 3DS sales remain poor, how likely do you think it is that Nintendo has a back-up plan and can successfully rebound with a new console by 2014 without ending up deep in the red?

You realize you're talking in impossibilities, right?
Let's lay aside all fanboyism and all speculation for a second and deal strictly in facts.

Reality: The Wii U will sell less than the Wii. By a good deal. However, Nintendo doesn't sell systems at a loss. So every Wii U sold is money for Nintendo. We also have to look at the massive resurgence of popularity in the Nintendo brand caused this generation. People will buy the Wii U, if only for the newest Mario.
As for the 3DS, people keep spouting doom and gloom without looking at the actual situation. As of right now, it's actually selling ahead of the DS in the same time frame. That is with a weak lineup and a large price difference. Sales will pickup with hard selling software, of which there is quite a bit coming this year already. This is how it works with every system.

There is no scenario in existence in which Nintendo can run into the red short of everything they make not selling a single unit from now on. There is also no need for a backup plan. If things falter they will shift priorities, just as they always have.

 

[Axkil aka StabMasterArson]

I know I'm going to get hell for this, but I have to ask.

On the off chance that Wii U flops and 3DS sales remain poor, how likely do you think it is that Nintendo has a back-up plan and can successfully rebound with a new console by 2014 without ending up deep in the red?

Nintendo in the red=impossible

 

[BurntPork]

You realize you're talking in impossibilities, right?
Let's lay aside all fanboyism and all speculation for a second and deal strictly in facts.

Reality: The Wii U will sell less than the Wii. By a good deal. However, Nintendo doesn't sell systems at a loss. So every Wii U sold is money for Nintendo. We also have to look at the massive resurgence of popularity in the Nintendo brand caused this generation. People will buy the Wii U, if only for the newest Mario.
As for the 3DS, people keep spouting doom and gloom without looking at the actual situation. As of right now, it's actually selling ahead of the DS in the same time frame. That is with a weak lineup and a large price difference. Sales will pickup with hard selling software, of which there is quite a bit coming this year already. This is how it works with every system.

There is no scenario in existence in which Nintendo can run into the red short of everything they make not selling a single unit from now on. There is also no need for a backup plan. If things falter they will shift priorities, just as they always have.

Okay, I get that. I'm just saying "what if."

Also, you're ignoring the fact that DS sold over 700k units during the holiday it launched. (I might be mistaken.) That is the wildcard when comparing the DS's first year to the 3DS. That just might be the only reason it's selling better.

Nintendo in the red=impossible

Even with no hardware selling well for two years while R&D is rushing to get new hardware out?

 

[Gospel]

edit: sigh i'm getting too old for this.

 

[Hiltz]

If Wii U sales were to ever be terrible, then Nintendo's worst case scenario would be to sell hardware at a loss. Of course, it would probably try resorting to other methods like software bundles first.

Most of us still remember how Sony had to cut the price of the PS3 by $100 before its first full year of release.

 

[AceBandage]

Okay, I get that. I'm just saying "what if."

Also, you're ignoring the fact that DS sold over 700k units during the holiday it launched. (I might be mistaken.) That is the wildcard when comparing the DS's first year to the 3DS. That just might be the only reason it's selling better.


Even with no hardware selling well for two years while R&D is rushing to get new hardware out?

There is no "what if" scenario, though.
That's like asking the President if there's a plan for the Sun blowing up tomorrow.

And yes, the DS had a Holiday season in which to sell that the 3DS has not yet, but we also have to look at the fact that the Holiday is when the 3DS will be getting a good share of big software that will propel its sales.

If Wii U sales are a terrible, then Nintendo's may have to face the design of cutting the price down to where it may have to take a hit on selling hardware at a loss. However, Nintendo would probably try resorting to software bundles first.

Most of us still remember how Sony had to cut the price of the PS3 by $100 before its first full year of release.

The absolute worst case scenario here is that is sells like the Gamecube. At this point, Nintendo will shift focus to trying to add value to the Wii U. They will likely spend more money on exclusives and content that they couldn't (or more likely wouldn't) on the GC.

However, the market is not like it was during last generation. The Wii U is guaranteed a lot of third party games simply because publishers will want them on every system they can get them on.

 

[BurntPork]

There is no "what if" scenario, though.
That's like asking the President if there's a plan for the Sun blowing up tomorrow.

And yes, the DS had a Holiday season in which to sell that the 3DS has not yet, but we also have to look at the fact that the Holiday is when the 3DS will be getting a good share of big software that will propel its sales.



The absolute worst case scenario here is that is sells like the Gamecube. At this point, Nintendo will shift focus to trying to add value to the Wii U. They will likely spend more money on exclusives and content that they couldn't (or more likely wouldn't) on the GC.

However, the market is not like it was during last generation. The Wii U is guaranteed a lot of third party games simply because publishers will want them on every system they can get them on.

That's assuming that Wii U is powerful enough to get that support. We now have strong evidence that MS is going all-out again. Nintendo's not going to stand much of a chance if Wii U is only, say, twice as as powerful as the current gen while PS3 and 360 are around 12x. Nintendo's definitely taking a risk here. Also, if the people here are any indication, nothing short of putting the company on the line to create an uber console would successfully save Nintendo hardware in the eyes of the "hardcore" gamer. Some of the people here are acting like Nintendo has insulted them by being conservative.

 

[Shikamaru Ninja]

The absolute worst case scenario here is that is sells like the Gamecube. At this point, Nintendo will shift focus to trying to add value to the Wii U. They will likely spend more money on exclusives and content that they couldn't (or more likely wouldn't) on the GC.

I do not think the Wii U has that lowered expectation. The gaming population is much bigger in 2012 than it was circa GameCube. And Nintendo is basically already developing NSMB HD, Wii Play HD, Wii Sports HD, and Wii Fit HD. While neither may replicate the success previously attained, those franchises alone trump the penetration potential of the GameCube catalogue. Now if Nintendo creates a platform where their core games can be accepted (Pikmin, Zelda, F-Zero, Smash) and third-party games. Well we have an overall better system. My fear is that Nintendo will still overlook those essentials adopted by SONY/MICROSOFT like online, trophies, dlc, demos. Those things that have really evolved the gaming universe for the active gaming enthusiasts.

However, the market is not like it was during last generation. The Wii U is guaranteed a lot of third party games simply because publishers will want them on every system they can get them on.

The horsepower is there. But if Nintendo fails to equal and better other aspects, then the Wii U version of multi-platform games will be the worst selling. What no achievements? no downloadable demo? no good online system? I will get the XBOX 360 version thanks.

 

[AceBandage]

That's assuming that Wii U is powerful enough to get that support. We now have strong evidence that MS is going all-out again. Nintendo's not going to stand much of a chance if Wii U is only, say, twice as as powerful as the current gen while PS3 and 360 are around 12x. Nintendo's definitely taking a risk here. Also, if the people here are any indication, nothing short of putting the company on the line to create an uber console would successfully save Nintendo hardware in the eyes of the "hardcore" gamer. Some of the people here are acting like Nintendo has insulted them by being conservative.

GAF is the last place I'd look to try and determine the reaction of the gaming populace...

I do not think the Wii U has that lowered expectation. The gaming population is much bigger in 2012 than it was circa GameCube. And Nintendo is basically already developing NSMB HD, Wii Play HD, Wii Sports HD, and Wii Fit HD. While neither may replicate the success previously attained, those franchises alone trump the penetration potential of the GameCube catalogue. Now if Nintendo creates a platform where their core games can be accepted (Pikmin, Zelda, F-Zero, Smash) and third-party games. Well we have an overall better system. My fear is that Nintendo will still overlook those essentials adopted by SONY/MICROSOFT like online, trophies, dlc, demos. Those things that have really evolved the gaming universe for the active gaming enthusiasts.

Trophies/Achievements are the only thing I think Nintendo will skip out on this generation.
We're getting demos on the 3DS and DLC is already completely up and running.
Third parties are also enthusiastic about Wii U's online, so that shouldn't be a problem.

 

[BurntPork]

Trophies/Achievements are the only thing I think Nintendo will skip out on this generation.
We're getting demos on the 3DS and DLC is already completely up and running.
Third parties are also enthusiastic about Wii U's online, so that shouldn't be a problem.

You're forgetting a huge feature that Wii U is unlikely to have: cross-game chat. That could be a hard blow.

That said, it will have the huge advantage of out-of-box video chat.

 

[AceBandage]

You're forgetting a huge feature that Wii U is unlikely to have: cross-game chat. That could be a hard blow.

That said, it will have the huge advantage of out-of-box video chat.

I... really don't think that cross game chat will be a deal breaker for the vast majority of gamers.

 

[Mr_Brit]

GAF is the last place I'd look to try and determine the reaction of the gaming populace...



Trophies/Achievements are the only thing I think Nintendo will skip out on this generation.
We're getting demos on the 3DS and DLC is already completely up and running.
Third parties are also enthusiastic about Wii U's online, so that shouldn't be a problem.

We have yet to know why 3rd parties are excited for Wii U online. There are many possible reasons and several do not benefit the consumer but do benefit the pubslisher.

 

[walking fiend]

We have yet to know why 3rd parties are excited for Wii U online. There are many possible reasons and several do not benefit the consumer but do benefit the pubslisher.

there's no way competition doesn't benefit the user, unless Nintendo fucks up at providing the infrastructure and ground needed for that.

 

[Verano]

so...any news/tidbits about the Wii U reappearing for TGS this year?

 

[AceBandage]

so...any news/tidbits about the Wii U reappearing for TGS this year?

Pretty much impossible unless Nintendo lifts the NDA on third party games.

 

[SolarPowered]

I... really don't think that cross game chat will be a deal breaker for the vast majority of gamers.

You'd be surprised by this if the WiiU is $300+ and the PS3/360 are $200 by comparison. Either way, I don't think Nintendo is aiming for the people who care about cross game chat.

 

[comedy bomb]

Pretty much impossible unless Nintendo lifts the NDA on third party games.

I would hope that they show a bunch at their fall conference, and maybe then we'll see some 3rd party stuff at TGS.

 

[BurntPork]

You'd be surprised by this if the WiiU is $300+ and the PS3/360 are $200 by comparison. Either way, I don't think Nintendo is aiming for the people who care about cross game chat.

Nintendo specifically said that they're aiming for gamers at E3 and don't want to make this another casual-only console.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Nintendo specifically said that they're aiming for gamers at E3 and don't want to make this another casual-only console.

Nintendo says a lot of things. So do Sony and Microsoft.

What really matters is what they do.

 

[AceBandage]

I would hope that they show a bunch at their fall conference, and maybe then we'll see some 3rd party stuff at TGS.

I believe their Fall Conference is after TGS. We will likely see more of it at the conference, though, simply because it's suppose to be a Q2 launch.

 

[Mr_Brit]

I believe their Fall Conference is after TGS. We will likely see more of it at the conference, though, simply because it's suppose to be a Q2 launch.

When did they say it's Q2, I'm pretty sure all they've said is Fiscal 2012.

 

[antonz]

Q2/Q3 is the launch window 3rd parties have referred too

 

[[Nintex]]

For what it is worth, Nintendo Europe was planning on bringing it along to their post E3 events for European press like they did with the 3DS and that was canned at the last minute. Now the word on the street is that Wii U won't be at GamesCom in any shape or form.

 

[AceBandage]

Not surprising.
They're likely doing revisions to it after the hasty E3 showing. Probably got a lot of feedback from developers on it.

 

[bgassassin]

We now have strong evidence that MS is going all-out again.$

No we don't.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

What was the 3DS timeline?

Reveal at E3, Japanese presentation in the fall with game announcements, third parties free to talk after the Japanese presentation, American presentation in early new year, release in February/March?

I imagine Wii U will follow a similar but extended timeline. There won't be a release before the end of the FY, so they have a lot more time to space those things out.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see an E3 blowout and a July or August launch.

 

[test_account]

For what it is worth, Nintendo Europe was planning on bringing it along to their post E3 events for European press like they did with the 3DS and that was canned at the last minute. Now the word on the street is that Wii U won't be at GamesCom in any shape or form.

I will be surprised if there isnt any WiiU stuff on GamesCom. Although, there are only about 2 months since E3 when GamesCom starts, and seeing that WiiU is about a year away, it is probably not that much more new info on it compared to what we already saw on E3. But still, WiiU being completely absent at GamesCom will surprise me. Maybe nothing from Nintendo themself, but at least something from the 3rd parties.

 

[antonz]

Darksiders 2 is a Q2 title right now. We know its a Launch title on the Wii U. Just a matter of will it be a all at once launch or will Wii U end up getting it a few months later

 

[Mr_Brit]

I will be surprised if there isnt any WiiU stuff on GamesCom. Although, there are only about 2 months since E3 when GamesCom starts, and seeing that WiiU is about a year away, it is probably not that much more new info on it compared to what we already saw on E3. But still, WiiU being completely absent at GamesCom will surprise me. Maybe nothing from Nintendo themself, but at least something from the 3rd parties.

Don't expect to see Wii U in the West again this year.

 

[bgassassin]

What was the 3DS timeline?

Reveal at E3, Japanese presentation in the fall with game announcements, third parties free to talk after the Japanese presentation, American presentation in early new year, release in February/March?

I imagine Wii U will follow a similar but extended timeline. There won't be a release before the end of the FY, so they have a lot more time to space those things out.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see an E3 blowout and a July or August launch.

Wii U seems to be on the Wii timeline.

 

[test_account]

Don't expect to see Wii U in the West again this year.

I find it somewhat surprising if Nintendo doesnt try to get as much exposure around the WiiU as they can and trying to keep the hype up. But seeing that the console is so far away, maybe they will wait indeed.

 

[Mr_Brit]

I find it a bit wierd if Nintendo doesnt try to get as much exposure around the WiiU as they can and trying to keep the hype up. But seeing that the console is so far away, maybe they will wait indeed.

The Wii U will likely launch after E3 2012, why would Nintendo start marketing it this year? Nintendo will also want some proper games shown off on the device similar to Wii Sports that can show all the features the console has rather than bland, shallow demos like the ones at E3.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Wii U seems to be on the Wii timeline.

Wii timeline was E3 2005 console/Virtual Console reveal, TGS 2005 controller reveal, E3 2006 game blowout, September 2006 pricing and release date announcement, Winter 2006 release.

For this to match up, E3 2011 would have to be analogous to the TGS 2005 controller reveal. That would be September of 2005 to May of 2006. So about eight months from E3 2011 would be...February of 2012 until we see something again?

 

[AceBandage]

I find it a bit wierd if Nintendo doesnt try to get as much exposure around the WiiU as they can and trying to keep the hype up. But seeing that the console is so far away, maybe they will wait indeed.

Hyping up things too early leads to backlash. Especially if you don't have a constant stream of info.
The E3 showing was definitely rough, but I think they needed to do it for shareholders (despite them still being disappointed by the late release date of the system).

 

[test_account]

The Wii U will likely launch after E3 2012, why would Nintendo start marketing it this year? Nintendo will also want some proper games shown off on the device similar to Wii Sports that can show all the features the console has rather than bland, shallow demos like the ones at E3.

Hyping up things too early leads to backlash. Especially if you don't have a constant stream of info.
The E3 showing was definitely rough, but I think they needed to do it for shareholders (despite them still being disappointed by the late release date of the system).

Quoting both since i have basically the same reply to both quotes.

I'm not expecting anything huge regarding marketing, but just some small tidbits/updates on it so that people get some new info at least. But yeah, seeing that the console is so far ahead, maybe the console isnt even finalized yet, so that can be a reason why they wont give out as least info as possible just yet.

 

[bgassassin]

Wii timeline was E3 2005 console/Virtual Console reveal, TGS 2005 controller reveal, E3 2006 game blowout, September 2006 pricing and release date announcement, Winter 2006 release.

For this to match up, E3 2011 would have to be analogous to the TGS 2005 controller reveal. That would be September of 2005 to May of 2006. So about eight months from E3 2011 would be...February of 2012 until we see something again?

I was looking at it strictly from the E3 similarities. E32005/2011 tease, E3 2006/2012 full reveal with launch sometime after. I'm on the July 2012 launch bandwagon.

But I can see Nintendo sitting on info that long if not longer if they don't have their own event later this year.

 

[JJConrad]

What was the 3DS timeline?

Reveal at E3, Japanese presentation in the fall with game announcements, third parties free to talk after the Japanese presentation, American presentation in early new year, release in February/March?

I imagine Wii U will follow a similar but extended timeline. There won't be a release before the end of the FY, so they have a lot more time to space those things out.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see an E3 blowout and a July or August launch.

If it launches after E3 it won't launch until Q4. They can't do a launch blowout and also do the usual holiday blowout at the same time without sending wildly confusing mixed signals. They risk blowing their load to soon and/or people thinking they're better off to wait... and it'll be a whole year before they can get back on message. So they'll either launch before E3 and then use the conference to recharge their hype, or they'll wait and have a massive launch at the end of the year. Anything in between is unlikely.

 

[BurntPork]

I find it somewhat surprising if Nintendo doesnt try to get as much exposure around the WiiU as they can and trying to keep the hype up. But seeing that the console is so far away, maybe they will wait indeed.

Twilight Princess effect

 

[test_account]

Twilight Princess effect

How do you mean?

 

[bgassassin]

If it launches after E3 it won't launch until Q4. They can't do a launch blowout and also do the usual holiday blowout at the same time without sending wildly confusing mixed signals. They risk blowing their load to soon and/or people thinking they're better off to wait... and it'll be a whole year before they can get back on message. So they'll either launch before E3 and then use the conference to recharge their hype, or they'll wait and have a massive launch at the end of the year. Anything in between is unlikely.

What kind of confusing mixed signals would there be?

 

[[Nintex]]

Nintendo is obviously working their ass off to get this thing out the door early but I'm not sure if they'll manage Q2 at this rate. Last year we got to see the 3DS in Europe right after E3 at the post E3 events so we kinda expected at least a single Wii U unit to be shown this year. In any case they scaled down the usual post E3 events to pre-2009 meetings at their office, like a come play some 3DS and Zelda thing.

Everyone asked about the Wii U but nothing was said or shown and the response we got about GamesCom was "don't count on it" and it seems less likely to show up at GamesCom as the weeks go by.

Just look at this list and see how little space Nintendo has reserved:
http://www.gamescom-cologne.com/en/gamescom/ausstellersuche/hallenplaene/hallenplaene.php

 

[TheNatural]

The crowd out problem is like this

1) Nintendo needs to develop big, evergreen titles to sell a system
2) Third parties feel they can not compete on a Nintendo system, regardless of the install base, if Nintendo's titles sell millions of copies for years and years
3) If Nintendo does not make these games, the system does not sell and third parties point out the small install base as reasons not to develop.

For the Wii, they made a series of evergreen titles that basically blotted out the sun in the NPDs. Third parties felt they could not compete with this, so they went with low-budget, casual games that did not incur much risk.

For the 3DS, Nintendo took the opposite approach. Launch small, hype up the hardware, and let the third parties have the reins. This worked equally poorly, as no one wants to buy a system without those Nintendo titles to bolster it. So third party sales are still pretty bad because no one has the system yet and are waiting for Nintendo to release, say, Mario Kart. At which point Mario Kart becomes the big seller and blots out the sun.

Nintendo has to find a way to navigate this problem for the Wii U.

I don't think that's a problem with the 3DS - the problem is there wasn't jack shit from third parties either. I mean, what are you going to buy, a port of SF IV? Granted that it was a good port, but the game has been out forever. It's weird that up until the holidays the top 3 3DS quality games will be considered a port and two remakes.

 

[watershed]

Nintendo is obviously working their ass off to get this thing out the door early but I'm not sure if they'll manage Q2 at this rate. Last year we got to see the 3DS in Europe right after E3 at the post E3 events so we kinda expected at least a single Wii U unit to be shown this year. In any case they scaled down the usual post E3 events to pre-2009 meetings at their office, like a come play some 3DS and Zelda thing.

Everyone asked about the Wii U but nothing was said or shown and the response we got about GamesCom was "don't count on it" and it seems less likely to show up at GamesCom as the weeks go by.

Just look at this list and see how little space Nintendo has reserved:
http://www.gamescom-cologne.com/en/gamescom/ausstellersuche/hallenplaene/hallenplaene.php

I wonder what the issue is? Judging from the E3 reveal it seems like Nintendo rushed to just have anything to show. Yet we also heard that 3rd parties had games up and running but were told to hold them back. We also know that the hardware isn't finalized yet and so on and so forth. Did Nintendo just botch the public unveiling or are they scrambling to make behind-the-scenes changes that they didn't anticipate prior to E3? With the 3ds the E3 unveiling and post E3 showcases seemed so confident and well planned, the wii u is like the exact opposite.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I don't think that's a problem with the 3DS - the problem is there wasn't jack shit from third parties either. I mean, what are you going to buy, a port of SF IV? Granted that it was a good port, but the game has been out forever. It's weird that up until the holidays the top 3 3DS quality games will be considered a port and two remakes.

Well, that's also part of the problem.

If you're ever counting on third parties to pick up the slack on a Nintendo system, you're going to get burned. It wasn't until the DS really hit its stride that developers started throwing really good things at it.

For the 3DS, developers kind of went "Oh, free money without much effort!" and that won't change until there's a big watershed moment for the system.

 

[BurntPork]

How do you mean?

Too much hype is the downfall of anything. TP got too much hype for too long, and that's a large part of why it was a disappointment. 3DS got this in a way as well. It's better for Nintendo to wait until the last minute to get people hyped. If you ask me, Nintendo should just hurry up and admit that it's going to be a tragically weak console if that's the case so they can do a huge game blowout near launch.

Sidenote: The launch will either be mid-late June or September. Bet on it.

 

[PdotMichael]

In my opinion, the talk about the third parties is only a excuse. I guess, nintendo believed just the 3ds was enough to sell enough without to waste a big franchise as early launchgame.

like what sony was doing with the ps2